The Twins Can Still Earn One of Next Year's Top Draft Picks

[Cody Christie]

Major League Baseball changed the rules for next year's draft, which can be good news for teams out of contention. Here's how the Twins can earn one of next year's top draft picks. 

 

Image courtesy of Twins Daily

 

Last winter's lockout may not have been all bad for baseball because one new aspect of the collective bargaining agreement is a change to MLB's Draft. Recently, the team with baseball's worst record received the first overall pick and the highest pick in each subsequent round. For many reasons, tanking became a common practice by many organizations looking to rebuild a franchise. The Houston Astros may be the most famous example, as they lost over 100 games in three consecutive seasons before eventually rebuilding into an American League powerhouse. 

Starting in 2023, the first six picks in each year's draft will be assigned through a draft lottery. All 18 teams that fail to qualify for the postseason will have a chance to move into the top six picks. Odds for each team receiving the number one selection are assigned in reverse order of regular season winning percentage. If a team doesn't receive a lottery selection, they will pick in reverse order of winning percentage from the previous season. 

The odds of receiving the draft's top pick are as follows:
Worst record: 16.5%
2nd-worst record: 16.5%
3rd-worst record: 16.5%
4th: 13.25%
5th: 10%
6th: 7.5%
7th: 5.5%
8th: 3.9%
9th: 2.7%
10th: 1.8%
11th: 1.4%
12th: 1.1%
13th: 0.90%
14th: 0.76%
15th: 0.62%
16th: 0.48%
17th: 0.36%
18th: 0.23%

Adding a lottery helps to deter tanking, but other rules were added to deter tanking even further. Teams that receive revenue sharing can't receive a top-six pick for more than two consecutive seasons. On the opposite side, clubs that pay revenue sharing can't get a lottery pick more than one year in a row. 

Organizations are significantly helped by adding talent at the top of the draft, and Minnesota's system has dropped according to national rankings. The Twins' top two prospects, Royce Lewis and Brooks Lee, were both top-8 picks in the first round of their respective draft. Lewis looked fantastic in his first taste of the big leagues, and Lee's already seen his stock rise since joining the Twins organization. The more times the Twins can get a top-10 pick, the better their chances of adding impact talent to a farm system that needs a boost. 

Entering play on Monday, the Twins have a .500 record which translates to baseball's 15th worst record. Minnesota would have a 0.62% chance of earning the first overall pick if the season ended today. Minnesota trails Boston by two games for the 14th spot and San Francisco by 3.5 games for the 13th worst record. Gaining ground on these teams helps increase Minnesota's odds, but it's only a small jump for teams that have been in contention. 

If you'd like to simulate MLB's draft lottery, Tankathon has updated its site to include a simulation tool for the lottery. My first lottery scored the Twins the third overall pick, but the team never won the top overall pick in over 200 simulations. Minnesota has time to help their odds over the season's final weeks, so it will be interesting to see how the team fares in their first chance at the draft lottery. 

Do you like MLB's new lottery system? Do you think it will deter teams from tanking in the years ahead? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. 

 

 

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[Game7-91]

It will add an interesting twist to the draft. Thanks for sim link, I tried it, on 12th try Twins popped up 3rd, otherwise were in the teens.

Whether its 3 or 16, there will be talent available, can they choose wisely and develop said talent is the question. It sure looks like they hit on Lee. Please dont trade him for RP next year.......

[gman]

I forgot about the lottery change. I had already been looking at who we could pass to get down to 11th or 12th if possible. Since we have a couple more Il's and walking wounded after this weekend that makes it more doable.

[mikelink45]

And this is the exciting news we have waited all year to read?  If we get the best choice we will trade it so what is the real value?

[USAFChief]

A draft lotto is an incredibly stupid idea.

That said, hope we get lucky. MLB ****** this up, we might as well benefit. 

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

A lottery should be weighted in favor of the last team to be eliminated from a playoff spot and the last team to clinch a spot, and so on. That should keep more teams motivated to field a competitive team.

[USAFChief]

15 minutes ago, Hosken Bombo Disco said:

A lottery should be weighted in favor of the last team to be eliminated from a playoff spot and the last team to clinch a spot, and so on. That should keep more teams motivated to field a competitive team.

A draft should be the way it always was...worst teams get the best picks.

Nobody is tanking in baseball, and I don't care if they are anyway 

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

1 minute ago, USAFChief said:

A draft should be the way it always was...worst teams get the best picks.

Nobody is tanking in baseball, and I don't care if they are anyway 

I agree with the first part—why change the draft? But no I think some teams are tanking or not trying that hard. I don’t necessarily have a problem with that. But take a look at the number of teams hovering around 500. There are only a few of them.

[USAFChief]

14 minutes ago, Hosken Bombo Disco said:

I agree with the first part—why change the draft? But no I think some teams are tanking or not trying that hard. I don’t necessarily have a problem with that. But take a look at the number of teams hovering around 500. There are only a few of them.

Without looking it up, I'd venture it's like that most years in the history of MLB 

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

6 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

Without looking it up, I'd venture it's like that most years in the history of MLB 

I feel like if you (not you, but someone!) if someone plotted all the MLB teams Win-Loss record on a bell curve, for each season, that this season would look less like a bell than most seasons. 

As of now, the Twins are the only team within 2-4 games of .500 and the NL team closest to .500 are the Giants at 69-77. 

[Brandon]

Of course with our luck we are guaranteed to get the 17th pick in the draft next year.

 

I did read the top correctly in case you missed the sarcasm

[Otaknam]

Tanking in baseball is a crap shoot because top talent is harder to project than it is in other sports. Of course there are occasionally a Ken Griffey Jr. or Carlos Correa available who are viewed as can’t miss prospects. 

[Trov]

I never have felt in baseball that a lottery would fix tanking.  However, since it is in affect hopefully we can jump up.  The fact is many times the number 1 pick is not better than the number 5 pick, but normally the top 1 to 5 are generally better than those after, but not always.  

[Mike Sixel]

14 hours ago, USAFChief said:

A draft lotto is an incredibly stupid idea.

That said, hope we get lucky. MLB ****** this up, we might as well benefit. 

This. 

[chpettit19]

13 hours ago, USAFChief said:

A draft should be the way it always was...worst teams get the best picks.

Nobody is tanking in baseball, and I don't care if they are anyway 

This is interesting to me. What would you call what the Reds have done for the last year if you wouldn't call it tanking? They've traded away Luis Castillo, Tyler Mahle, Sonny Gray, Alex Wood, Rasiel Iglesias, Tucker Barnhart, Amir Garrett, Jesse Winker, Eugenio Suarez, Tyler Naquin, Tommy Pham, and Brandon Drury since last season. I guess you can sugar coat it and call it rebuilding, but they are most definitely not trying to win major league baseball games with those moves.

Now not caring about it is a different thing. But I'm curious about the stance that nobody is tanking in baseball.

[USAFChief]

54 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

This is interesting to me. What would you call what the Reds have done for the last year if you wouldn't call it tanking? They've traded away Luis Castillo, Tyler Mahle, Sonny Gray, Alex Wood, Rasiel Iglesias, Tucker Barnhart, Amir Garrett, Jesse Winker, Eugenio Suarez, Tyler Naquin, Tommy Pham, and Brandon Drury since last season. I guess you can sugar coat it and call it rebuilding, but they are most definitely not trying to win major league baseball games with those moves.

Now not caring about it is a different thing. But I'm curious about the stance that nobody is tanking in baseball.

I'd say they're rebuilding. They weren't winning with that group, and IMO were unlikely to.

In any case, they're not even in last place in their own division, much less MLB. If they're tanking, they suck at it. 

But as I said, if you want to call it tanking, or if it IS tanking, I don't care much. There's a lot of disincentive already built in not to do that. And there's too many examples of teams NOT tanking, but lacking talent that the draft is supposed to help address.

 

[Nine of twelve]

I think tanking in baseball is essentially pointless. First, draft-eligible players are much more difficult to project in baseball than in other sports, Second, my guess is that tanking almost never makes more of a change than 2 or 3 positions in the draft anyway. But if it is felt that tanking needs to be discouraged via a lottery, then setting up the lottery so that a team can not advance or descend by more than 3 positions ought to do it. I don't like that a team with the 7th-best record in its league has any chance, even a remote one, to wind up with the first pick. Nor do I like that a team with the worst record has any chance, even a remote one, to wind up with the 18th pick.

How could this be done? Here's how I would do it. Choose one of the first four teams in the draft order at random to receive the first pick. For deciding the second pick, add team #5 to the remaining three and choose at random. For the third pick, add team #6 to the remaining three and choose. At that point, if team #1 has not yet been chosen, they get pick number 4. Otherwise add #7 and choose the team for the fourth pick. At that point, if team #2 has not been chosen, they get pick #5. Continue in this manner until the first 18 positions are decided. From that point on the selection order stays as it would have been without a lottery.

[LewFordLives]

The first pick in the draft is the worst pick, because it means the team stunk the year before.  I would rather the Twins were picking at #30.

[Mike Sixel]

5 hours ago, Nine of twelve said:

I think tanking in baseball is essentially pointless. First, draft-eligible players are much more difficult to project in baseball than in other sports, Second, my guess is that tanking almost never makes more of a change than 2 or 3 positions in the draft anyway. But if it is felt that tanking needs to be discouraged via a lottery, then setting up the lottery so that a team can not advance or descend by more than 3 positions ought to do it. I don't like that a team with the 7th-best record in its league has any chance, even a remote one, to wind up with the first pick. Nor do I like that a team with the worst record has any chance, even a remote one, to wind up with the 18th pick.

How could this be done? Here's how I would do it. Choose one of the first four teams in the draft order at random to receive the first pick. For deciding the second pick, add team #5 to the remaining three and choose at random. For the third pick, add team #6 to the remaining three and choose. At that point, if team #1 has not yet been chosen, they get pick number 4. Otherwise add #7 and choose the team for the fourth pick. At that point, if team #2 has not been chosen, they get pick #5. Continue in this manner until the first 18 positions are decided. From that point on the selection order stays as it would have been without a lottery.

I still think an auction system is the best idea, with the worst teams getting advantages. Never going to happen though