Did the Twins Think Their 2022 "Reload" Through Enough?

[Peter Labuza]

In the dire straits of September 2021, the Twins fanbase worried about the future of the franchise. The team had justifiably traded away both Nelson Cruz and José Berrios. Negotiations between Byron Buxton and the organization had fallen apart during the summer. A number of the team's exciting prospects were recovering from injuries and likely unavailable to at least start 2022. Plus, a contentious bargaining situation between the league and players had owners acting with caution.

Image courtesy of Aaron Josefczyk-USA TODAY Sports

 

Were the Twins to go the way of many teams and begin a long rebuild to return to contention? "I'm not using that word," Derek Falvey told the beat writers. Instead, 2022 would be a year for a reload.

But what does a successful reload look like? The Twins set out to return to playoff contention as they had in 2019 and 2020. Doing so would require more money and trades than the team had done in previous years of Pohlad ownership.

Teams often reload for playoff contention for several reasons but usually require a strong central core and only a few critical holes to fill. For the 2016 Red Sox, their last year with Hall of Famer David Ortiz and an ascending Mookie Betts, it meant grabbing David Price on a $217 million deal and Craig Kimbrel in a trade with San Diego. The team went from last to first in the division for the next three years, including a World Series ring in 2018.

However, a better comparison for teams with smaller payrolls might be those 2005 White Sox. Their opening day lineup only featured three of the same faces from 2004, but none were rookies. Instead, Ozzie Guillén and Kenny Williams tried to rethink what kind of players to build around their core, grabbing AJ Pierzynski, Jermaine Dye, Tadahito Iguchi, and Scott Podsednik. Most of their core pitching returned, with Yankees pitcher Orlando Hernández filling in as their fifth man. Their salary ballooned from $65 million to $75 million, while the first-place Twins remained essentially static in the $50 million range. Of course, it was all worth it: the White Sox were an era-defining team, winning the division by six games, going on one of the all-time great post-season runs, and ending an 88-year-old championship drought.

For the Twins going into 2022, there was enough in the revolver for one last go of a core set of players: Jorge Polanco, Byron Buxton, Josh Donaldson, Luis Arraez, Mitch Garver, and Miguel Sano, plus some promise with Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, Trevor Larnach, and Alex Kirilloff to step up (not to mention the many hopes around the arrival of Royce Lewis). Their bullpen had enough interesting names to build around.

So why didn't the Twins work?

First, the Twins had too many holes to fill, particularly in the starting pitching realm. Ober and Ryan had less than 100 innings under their belts, and Kenta Maeda was merely a glimmer of promise for a late-season comeback. The Twins needed a Day One starter, but quickly missed names like Carlos Rodon, Marcus Stroman, and Noah Syndergaard, all of who made splashy but not impossible out-of-reach deals for the organization to match.

When the market reopened, the Twins rebounded by making the smart move to trade their first-round draft pick for Sonny Gray. But then they went with not one not two but three different "fix me up" projects: Dylan Bundy, Chris Archer, and Chris Paddack. Beyond Gray, that left five essentially unproven starters on opening day. The bullpen additions were equally shaky with the additions of Joe Smith and Emilio Pagán while dealing Taylor Rogers. Most importantly, the Twins essentially committed almost no new money in this realm beyond their trade capital, an odd sign for a team serious about contending.

Of course, the Twins put money down this season with a pair of $100+ million contracts: an extension of Buxton and a second in a blockbuster deal to commit $35.1 million a year to Carlos Correa. Bringing in a playoff specialist like Correa was the essential move they needed. It at least felt part of their decision to erase bad clubhouse vibes by flipping Josh Donaldson for Yankees veterans Gio Urshela and Gary Sánchez. Neither Urshela nor Sánchez were the top Bronx bombers, but there was plenty of sense they were the kind of players who understood big spots and big games.

And yet, the Twins probably remained slim in other veteran talent to reinforce their lineup. The previous year had demonstrated that the team did not have their prospects ready to go as eight different men took to center field to fill in injury after injury. Whether the Twins expected this year's injury woes to be worse than last year, their decision to depend entirely on prospects to back up Buxton and Kepler felt short-sided with plenty of low-end veterans available on the market (Kevin Pillar for example took a minor league deal with the Dodgers). A strong reload rarely means depending on new players—those 2005 Sox were all veterans beyond their season call-up of closer Bobby Jenks—but the Twins seemingly put a lot of hope on what feels like too many prospects suddenly becoming core players. Jose Miranda, Griffin Jax, and Jhoan Duran, have made themselves essential to this year's success, but others still have question marks about their long term viability (whether injury or ability). Either way, building through prospects is similar to what this year's Mariners have done where team has done after a long rebuild where they plan on years of contention after making a number of high profile trades and signings of known quantities to reinforce any flops of their prospects (Julio Rodríguez and George Kirby has outshined all potential, while Jarred Kelenic has essentially disappeared). Reloads are not just about graduating prospects; it's about building with those who don't need time to figure out their success.

In another world, Donaldson was traded for prospects rather than big leaguers, and you could imagine Buxton, Polanco, and even Arraez packing their bags for other ballparks. Watching multiple seasons of poor performance in the hope of a good team down the road is no one's idea of fun, so the fact that the Twins pushed this year remains a blessing.

But in retrospect, their approach in the reload feels odd. The Twins did increase their salary by 20% this season, but in the end, they were perhaps not in the place for the reload that wins championships.

What was missing from the Twins reload? Sound off in the comments.

 

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[LastOnePicked]

Great article. The Twins FO approach to this offseason reminded me of those kids in high school who slack off for 90% of the term and then start doing extra credit like crazy in the final week. In their haste, they made a number of faulty assumptions:

1) Buxton will remain relatively healthy.

2) The farm system pitching pipeline was ready to flow.

3) Correa's glove and bat would patch any defensive/offensive holes in the infield and lineup.

4) Bullpens are easy to cobble together on the fly.

None of those assumptions were true. They let Pagan completely sink the season, acting on the idea that any additional moves they would make at the deadline would carry the team through to a division title in the weak AL Central - or at least a WC spot in an expanded playoff field.

Nope. Buxton's detractors were sadly right - he isn't durable enough to warrant the new contract. The pitching pipeline completely dried up, reminding us all what national baseball writers had said in the offseason: Twins pitching scouting and development is nothing special. Correa is a player who feeds on intensity, and he found nothing after May here to build upon in terms of energy. And the bullpen implosions continued, straight out of 2021. Somehow, this organization turned once-strong relievers and closers like Colome, Pagan and Lopez into new versions of Ron Davis.

I gotta say, 2021 was far easier to stomach than 2022. This division was wide open for the taking this year. Instead, the Twins experienced another total system failure, bouncing them from first to third when everything mattered most. The FO seems to think they did their best with a reload this year. If so, I'd hate to see their worst attempt.

[Deadfan]

38 minutes ago, LastOnePicked said:

Great article. The Twins FO approach to this offseason reminded me of those kids in high school who slack off for 90% of the term and then start doing extra credit like crazy in the final week. In their haste, they made a number of faulty assumptions:

1) Buxton will remain relatively healthy.

2) The farm system pitching pipeline was ready to flow.

3) Correa's glove and bat would patch any defensive/offensive holes in the infield and lineup.

4) Bullpens are easy to cobble together on the fly.

None of those assumptions were true. They let Pagan completely sink the season, acting on the idea that any additional moves they would make at the deadline would carry the team through to a division title in the weak AL Central - or at least a WC spot in an expanded playoff field.

Nope. Buxton's detractors were sadly right - he isn't durable enough to warrant the new contract. The pitching pipeline completely dried up, reminding us all what national baseball writers had said in the offseason: Twins pitching scouting and development is nothing special. Correa is a player who feeds on intensity, and he found nothing after May here to build upon in terms of energy. And the bullpen implosions continued, straight out of 2021. Somehow, this organization turned once-strong relievers and closers like Colome, Pagan and Lopez into new versions of Ron Davis.

I gotta say, 2021 was far easier to stomach than 2022. This division was wide open for the taking this year. Instead, the Twins experienced another total system failure, bouncing them from first to third when everything mattered most. The FO seems to think they did their best with a reload this year. If so, I'd hate to see their worst attempt.

Gotta agree with everything here EXCEPT that Byron Buxton wasnt worth the contract. Even injured, he has performed at a value that far exceeds what he is being paid for 2022. 

[Brandon]

The Twins biggest mistake was trading Rogers.  That alone probably cost us the division seeing how many losses and blown saves we have from Pagan.  

Injuries were the other derailment.  We had great depth to cover some of the injuries.  Sano by Arreaz.  Killeroff by Larnarch then by Gordon, Miranda has come up and hit too.  We were thin at C though with no real third string option, which shouldn't be the end of the world except so many other things going wrong it really ended up hurting the team more.  

on pitching we had a good run in the rotation.  They are average not great.  No one pitches many innings however.  The bullpen was good for a while minus Pagan. Then they had a bad stretch but the real culprit though is the injuries way outnumbered our backup options.  

I actually think Falvine did a good job in setting the team up this year minus the Rogers trade which I was ok with at the time and missing out on all the starting pitchers as we should have signed a more solid starter.  One who can pitch deeper into games so the pen can get a rest here and there.  I would rather our 7th and 8th bullpen arms get in 40-50 games instead of 65-70 games.  that means better pitchers are pitching more innings.

[LastOnePicked]

1 hour ago, Deadfan said:

Even injured, he has performed at a value that far exceeds what he is being paid for 2022. 

Agreed. I should have clarified that I meant the length of the contract. I think there's reason to wonder if the hip/knee issues are going to cut his career very short. It's tragic, and I'm not pointing fingers here. I wanted the FO to re-sign Buxton. But I'm thinking the folks who argued against signing him long-term were seeing things a bit more clearly.

[purplesoldier4u]

"Gotta agree with everything here EXCEPT that Byron Buxton wasn't worth the contract. Even injured, he has performed at a value that far exceeds what he is being paid for 2022."

Buxton has a team-friendly contract and that's the only way it would work. As it now appears, BB will miss 70 games and of the 92 he's played, 35 were as a DH.

We need to back off the "even injured" mantra.

 

[Byrdman]

Cant win many games when you have a sub par closer, your starting 3 OF's and 3 backups are injured. Call up your explosive #1 prospect and he gets injured.  Lose your #1 catcher, along with every pitcher hit the IL at least once.  Your team will never mesh with this many injuries and players moving back and forth.  We need a better conditioning/injury prevention group.  We also had some bad luck on how some of these injuries took place.  Just a rough year of injuries to recover from is all. 

[rv78]

46 minutes ago, purplesoldier4u said:

"Gotta agree with everything here EXCEPT that Byron Buxton wasn't worth the contract. Even injured, he has performed at a value that far exceeds what he is being paid for 2022."

Buxton has a team-friendly contract and that's the only way it would work. As it now appears, BB will miss 70 games and of the 92 he's played, 35 were as a DH.

We need to back off the "even injured" mantra.

 

This is very true and part of an underlying issue that so many who see Buck as making good on his contract ignore. Buck wasn't signed to be the DH. His games are suppose to be in CF where his value is met with outstanding defense on top of anything he provides at the plate. Playing 57 games in CF doesn't come close to half a season, which we have all become accustomed to seeing from Buck. It's truely amazing and probably more like highway robbery, that a part-time player that cannot be counted on to play his position even half of the time can get a contract of $100M dollars.

[rv78]

As for the Twins reload, it was very poorly executed. To make matters worse they doubled down and traded away some good prospects at the deadline for what is little to no chance this year. Sure, outside of Fulmer, Mahle and Lopez will be back next year but Mahle is a question mark health wise and Lopez has looked nothing like he did when he was with Baltimore. I would say the FO got fleeced again. 

[RJA]

My guess is that the FO was planning to contend this year if things broke their way, but were really looking to next year when they thought Winder/Canterino/Balazovic would be ready, Maeda would be back, and the young guys like Kirilloff, Lewis, Larnach and Miranda would have experience and settle into established roles.  They figured to piece a bullpen together for the year, and hope Jax, Duran, Alcala, Stashak, etc. would get some experience and come back strong in 23.  Then, when Correa fell in their lap, everyone's expectations, and theirs, changed.  It is like they were caught between shifts in hockey, half in on this year and half out.  When they performed well early, and the division looked weak, they tried to add at the deadline only to screw that up with an injured pitcher (Mahle) and a pitcher who returned to old ways (Lopez) providing no help.  Then, of course, all the injuries.  They still are not in bad shape for next year with a rotation of Gray, Mahle (hope shoulder is not sign of significant problems), Ryan, and Ober forming the start of a decent rotation, and IF Kirilloff, Lewis, Larnach and others come back healthy to add to Buxton for 100 games (and he is worth his salary), Miranda, Arraez, Polanco, maybe Wallner, etc to form a decent core.  IF they add a top of the rotation type starter, catching help, and bullpen help they could make a run for it even if Cleveland and Chicago are better.  I think Correa is out, and if so, they should have the money to make improvements.

[Doctor Gast]

I was disappointed w/ Sano & Kepler that after all this time they could not better adapt away from the juiced ball, plus FO demolishing our catching & little BP we had, while doing nothing to bolster it. Injuries to Kiriloff, Larnach & Buxton really hurt us, Although we really didn't have any work horses, I liked our rotation plus we had a few good long relief candidates to compensate the shortage of innings. My greatest disappointment was that some sort of long relief that was promised never materialized, Over relying on poor short relief (Duran excluded) & over extending our rotation caused many of the pitching injuries & ineffectiveness. This was & had been our main downfall for as long as I can remember.

Duran has been our greatest success story. His effectiveness & staying healthy was phenomenial. Lewis was also phenomenal until he was stipidly put in CF. Gordon & Celestino finally gave us the CF back-up that kept us  in games which we normally lost when Buxton wasn't there. We found a home for Arraez at 1B & DH. Buxton carried the team for most of the 1st half. Ryan was great starting the season & now ending it. Miranda & Wallner have shown that they can hit. 

It was great to have Correa but he really didn't earn his $. His spurt at the end was too little too late. I take my hat off to our FO for trying to improve our pitching at the deadline but I'd rather them pick up some SP & BP arms during the off season, because many SPs are pushed so to showcase them that when we get them there's nothing left in the tank.

[LastOnePicked]

2 hours ago, rv78 said:

I would say the FO got fleeced again

Evidence suggests this is true. Not sure how long Jim Pohlad can keep letting them make the wrong call.

[bean5302]

Buxton had another career tying year. I'm not sure what people expected of him. Buxton playing DH shouldn't have impacted the team. I've talked about this before, but Buxton cannot be counted on for more than 80 games a season. 100 games is probably Buxton's ceiling so if the Twins were going to lock him up long term, they needed a MLB caliber starting CF on the roster besides Buxton.

Therein lies the problem Buxton doesn't cost $15MM. He costs $15MM plus another starting caliber CF because Buxton misses so many games, the 2nd CF is a requirement. Conventionally, Buxton more than made up for his contract, but considering the real cost for a team having Buxton is the 2nd center fielder, it's a little murkier IMHO. All that doesn't matter though. Buxton is here and he's here to stay for many, many more years.

[DocBauer]

First off, injuries tanked this team. I just don't see how anyone can debate that issue. When you're trotting out your 8th OF, a last second veteran catcher add, and what, you're 8th-10th SP options you can only do so much. Some of the lineups the past month have been AAA players filling in.

That being said, I don't feel this team was set up properly for 2022 at all. 

1] First and foremost, impending lockout and negotiations with Buxton be damned, the Twins were WAY UNDER ANY payroll possibilities and had the opportunity to add a quality SP for 2-4yrs at annual values that were fair and wouldn't break the bank. Even Rodon, who they pushed hard for, ended up with essentially a 1yr deal due to his opt out. Was Verlander coming here? No. But there were some really solid arms available that they didn't even try for. Instead, they took a flier on Bundy.

The Gray trade wasn't a bad one at all and probably happens regardless. A FA and Gray, and maybe STILL Bundy would have been a good start to join Ryan and Ober and young arms coming up. And while I actually like Paddack and think he might be a major part of the rotation theb2nd half of 2023 and 2024 and be a re-sign candidate, a team hungry for SP absolutely shouldn't have traded for someone almost guaranteed to blow out his arm. And they wouldn't have had to do so if they just spent $ for one of the quality FA arms out there.

Now, this doesn't guarantee success! But it's a solid foundation to build on and lessens a cascading affect that happened.

2] You absolutely CAN BUILD A BULLPEN in a variety of ways. Rebound arms. Starters turned to relievers. Promotions of young arms Solid FA signings. Duran is magnificent. Jax is very good. Thielbar is very good. The Twins really missed Alcala IMO. Lopez was a great move by the Orioles, but we could have done something similar. And while Rogers tanked after his start with the Padres, he's not a true "closer" to pitch daily. He's been really good, but he's not a Joe Nathan type. But having him and using him appropriately instead of Pagan would have made a huge difference for everyone. And you have Rogers if you don't HAVE to make the Paddack trade because you didn't do ANYTHING when you had the opportunity. And needing another quality option no matter the Rogers trade, Smith was it? A 38yo junk ball RH was it? There was NOBODY else worthy of a decent contract that was a better option than Joe Smith?

3] The belief that journeyman Garlick...an OK ballplayer...and not yet proven Celestino could handle the job of quality RH OF when the oft injured Buxton and Kepler were your only proven commodities was a huge error. Not only gas this team been surprisingly susceptible to LH pitching, but the young and very talented Larnach and Krilloff hadn't fully proven themselves as starters as of yet, and each was coming off injury. And Garlick and Celestino were the best you had to offer as RH counterparts?

To be fair, I don't hate the FO and I don't hate everything they did before or during the 2022 season. And I didn't hate this team before the year began. I honestly saw a 90-92 win team with decent health and a couple of breaks.

But I really questioned their lack of additions to the 3 areas above. And they seemed so very obvious to address based on need, availability, and an open payroll. No way to predict how things would have turned out had they done as described above. Only Maeda was out for 2022, the rest of the injuries have just been one after another, etc, until you barely recognize the team on the field we've been seeing the last month. But it doesn't change the fact that 1 more quality SP, 1 more quality RP along with Rogers, and 1 more quality OF would have helped mitigate some of the poor series we played before and after the break and the trades made. And surely, we wouldn't have given away so many games in the late innings.

 

[tony&rodney]

The reality is that many of the current "core" are susceptible to the injury bug and unlikely to play the 140 games needed to be worth their salary. Many of us on Twins Daily like our Twins: Jeffers, Kirilloff, Arraez, Polanco, Larnach, Buxton, Kepler, Maeda, and more that seem like players who could jell and win. None of these players were able to stay on the field and the players added, Pagan, Paddack, Lopez, Fulmer, Gray, Mahle, Bundy, and Archer were an uneven bunch that amounted to "not much gained or lost'. Sanchez was a warrior behind the plate, delivering his best glove season in his career. He has lost his stick mostly though. Urshela has been a wonderful player but his real contributions are more our positive impressions than his amazing performance. It would be tough to criticize either player. I admire their work this year. 

The biggest issues in my opinion are two: the Twins have a very rigid system that ignores the game on the field in any moment, which is termed The Plan; and the Twins disdain for classic fundamental baseball is befuddling. The constant display of a lack of fundamental baseball is often so glaring that I am forced to spend a few minutes looking at Zillow or something else inane before coming back to the game at hand. 

I'm hopeful that their is some reflection on the part of management in November.

[RpR]

27 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

The biggest issues in my opinion are two: the Twins have a very rigid system that ignores the game on the field in any moment, which is termed The Plan; and the Twins disdain for classic fundamental baseball is befuddling.

That, just as much, or to me, even more than poor pitching is the problem that MUST be addressed or they are going to be the same incompetent team they are now, next year.

[DJL44]

They do consistently underperform when it comes to infield defense. Correa won a Platinum glove and this season he was slightly above average.

[h2oface]

12 hours ago, Brandon said:

Injuries were the other derailment.  We had great depth to cover some of the injuries.  Sano by Arreaz.  Killeroff [sic] by Larnarch then by Gordon, Miranda has come up and hit too.  

My favorite version so far for Kirilloff.  
It has a bit of hopeful Killebrew in there albeit with his nickname. 

[Aerodeliria]

In that case, we should have a fantastic team next year....until everyone is injured again.

[VivaBomboRivera!]

Quote

For the Twins going into 2022, there was enough in the revolver for one last go of a core set of players: Jorge Polanco, Byron Buxton, Josh Donaldson, Luis Arraez, Mitch Garver, and Miguel Sano, ... Trevor Larnach, and Alex Kirilloff ... (not to mention the many hopes around the arrival of Royce Lewis).

Of this group, to date (147 games), only two of those position players have appeared in 80% of this season's lineups - Arraez and Urshela (smartly swapped for in the Donaldson giveaway).  They are joined by Correa and Gordon as the only Twins players consistently healthy enough to play four of every five dates.  Players cannot constitute a "core" if they can't contribute to the team's results.

These players injury histories were known, save for Sano and Larnach's new abdominal muscle ailment. Although they built in considerable depth, it's clear management put too much faith in their ability to keep their starters healthy. They will want to revisit this question in the off season.

If there's going to be another attempt to 'reload' with Arraez, Correa, Celestino, Gordon, Miranda and Urshela in a 2023 core, we should expect the Twins to add a left fielder with a clean medical sheet and a hefty slash line, plus a catcher/DH with some pop and a good eye at the plate (assuming Jeffers returns), and a shortstop if Correa doesn't stay.  Platoon contributions from Buxton, Kiriloff, Larnach and Polanco would then complement the new group, If Kepler recovers from his wrist and hip issues, he can hold down right field and bat eighth until he either finds his stroke or someone better comes along.

Bottom line:  The 2023 positions player core will look considerably different than group we have been riding since 2019.

[mikelink45]

No more woe is me!  The question is - what has the reload done to prepare us for 2023? 

• Can we count on our injured to return and not be injured? 
• Will Maeda, Mahle, and Paddock return as quality starters? 
• Who catches and are they any good? 
• Who takes Correa's place - Palacio?  Is he really good enough? 
• Are Kiriloff, Larnach, and Lewis going from injured prospect to production? 
• Can this coaching staff take them where they want to go?
• Do we have a BP to cover all the innings that Rocco wants? 
• Will Pagan and Lopez rise or sink,
• Will Duran continue his dominance?
• Can Alcala return as a high leverage reliever?
• Have we over used Jax?
• Can Thielbar continue?
• Who plays 1B?  Arraez, Miranda, Kiriloff?
• Where does Sano go?
• Who do we trade and for whom?
• Who do we sign with Correa money?
• What prospect is ready to rise from the minors?

[wsnydes]

I've maintained all season long that I don't believe that the FO planned to be as competitive as they were.  I think they were trying to avoid bottoming out and build for 2023 by getting the prospects big league time and allow the next batch of minor league players to be on the cusp.  That's one area where the putridity of the division actually hurt them.  It allowed an average team (at best) to lead a division for most of the season and it raised expectations.

[bighat]

The Twins went into this year basically hoping everyone would perform at career-highs, and if doing so they'd reasonably expect to compete. They banked on both Polanco and Correa hitting 28 HRs each and driving in 80. They banked on Larnach and Kirilloff taking the next step, hitting 20 HRs a piece and solidifying themselves in the 4-5-6 holes. They banked on Jeffers hitting .250, and they banked on Kepler hitting .280. They thought Duffey would rebound, they thought Pagan would be effective as the team's closer. And while they didn't bank on Buxton hitting .275 and hitting 35 HRs and stealing 30 bases, they probably thought it was a realistic possibility.

They missed on every single one of those. Badly. Polanco didn't deliver, Correa was invisible until September, Larnach and Kirilloff regressed and got hurt, so did Jeffers and Kepler. Duffey was released, Pagan is in the midst of a mind-bogglingly horrific season. Buxton barely hit above .200 and while he certainly was a sparkplug at times he didn't deliver what the Twins FO hoped for. 

The only gamble they got right was Dylan Bundy - I bet they got exactly what they'd hoped from him. He's 8-7 with a 4.68 ERA and has been reliably taking the ball every 5th day. 

One of the worst seasons to watch in recent memory. Worse than 2021. 

[Riverbrian]

Injuries happen every year.

Front offices including the manager need to prep for the fact that injuries happen every year. 

The question becomes... how many injuries can a front office properly prepare for? 

I don't know the answer to that one but the Twins MUST HAVE been near or past whatever injury level is reasonably expected to plan for. 

With that said: 

I remain a supporter of the front office but... whenever you stop on a .666 OPS and give that OPS an every day job and stop looking for someone better. You make yourself vulnerable to NEEDING that player to perform in a pennant race.

Stopping on a player with a .630 OPS because it's a back up role and not looking for someone better leaves you vulnerable to needing that player to perform in a pennant race. 

Restricting a player to the short side platoon AB's for 4 years... leaves you vulnerable to needing that player to all of sudden hit right handers in a pennant race when you've been busy giving those AB's to guys performing at .666 and .630 levels.  

The organization had to know about the above 3 things in July. 

 

 

 

 

[weitz41]

Crickets pre lock out. Whirlwind post lock out. Kinda hard to believe they planned it that way. So to answer the title question. No probably not.

We've matched our win total from last season with 2 weeks to go so I suppose there's that.

At the start of the season if I told you Wallner, Cave and Celestino were the starting OF in the last game. I don't believe anyone would have said that's an 80-82 win team. So I wouldn't say the reload was unsuccessful, just not what I'd hoped for. I too think this season was more hoping to win the division in 2022 and planning to win it in 2023.

[Karbo]

12 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

The biggest issues in my opinion are two: the Twins have a very rigid system that ignores the game on the field in any moment, which is termed The Plan; and the Twins disdain for classic fundamental baseball is befuddling. The constant display of a lack of fundamental baseball is often so glaring that I am forced to spend a few minutes looking at Zillow or something else inane before coming back to the game at hand. 

You hit the nail on the head. I'll add in another piece. If the "plan" was to limit starters to twice through the lineup, They should have invested in a couple of 2-3 inning relievers, instead of filling the pen with so many one and done pitchers.

[Whitey333]

Wow.  Great comments by all.  Well thought out.  Yes injuries piled up at the end making for a convenient excuse.  The team played very poorly since June 1st before the biggest rash of injuries.  Buxton??  He, as expected is becoming if not irrelevant, certainly predictable and undependable.  The FO messed up with the pitching staff big time.  They knew they were thin in the starting staff but did very little to fix it until they traded for the injury prone.  Also the maddening philosophy of sticking to the plan cost them many wins this year.  We have a manager who is incapable of unwilling to deviate from the plan even if it will cost us a game.  His in game management is terrible.  The analytic approach/ spreadsheet approach is ok but must be used in conjunction with a common sense eye test approach.  The FO is too narrow minded to approach the game in any sort of a semi or quasi traditional manner.  I'm sure Rocco fits right in with that rigidity.  

[LastOnePicked]

9 hours ago, wsnydes said:

That's one area where the putridity of the division actually hurt them.  It allowed an average team (at best) to lead a division for most of the season and it raised expectations.

With respect, no. It has been 18 years since the Twins last playoff victory. If anything, expectations have become perennially too low for this club.

[LastOnePicked]

7 hours ago, weitz41 said:

I too think this season was more hoping to win the division in 2022 and planning to win it in 2023.

I've seen this argument a few times, but where is this line of thinking coming from? I don't see anything that indicates that 2023 is a part of some plan for winning. No Correa. Injured prospects. Depleted farm system. Buxton likely having already given his best on the field. Busted pitching pipeline. This FO has shown absolutely no ability to sign impact starters or relievers. What am I missing about this strange focus on the FO's mysterious "plan" for 2023?

[SwainZag]

27 minutes ago, LastOnePicked said:

I've seen this argument a few times, but where is this line of thinking coming from? I don't see anything that indicates that 2023 is a part of some plan for winning. No Correa. Injured prospects. Depleted farm system. Buxton likely having already given his best on the field. Busted pitching pipeline. This FO has shown absolutely no ability to sign impact starters or relievers. What am I missing about this strange focus on the FO's mysterious "plan" for 2023?

For me it was the age of the team, especially on the pitching end of things.  Their opening day starter had thrown 5 career games before this season.  Expectations were probably looking at a team around .500 and if some of the many young players stepped up this year, a shot at a playoff spot.  They probably didn't count on nearly every young player missing a major portion of the season.  Those would include: Winder, Sands, Alcala, Paddack, Lewis, Kiriloff, Larnach, and Jeffers, 

IMO both Archer and Bundy were signed as stopgaps that were hopefully going to be replaced by Winder/Sands/Balzovic as the season progressed.  The same went for some of the bullpen arms.  When nearly all your young pitching misses most of the season, that plan went out the window.  All the players they added at the deadline, minus Fulmer, are controlled for at least another season.  

We did have a few bright spots with Ryan, Miranda, Duran, a surprising Nick Gordon and of course Arraez.  Unless we think that everyone on the team is injury prone, there should be a lot of options next year.  

Starting Pitchers that "should" be options:  Maeda, Mahle, Gray, Ryan, Ober, Varland, Winder, Sands with SWR seemingly fighting his way as well.  That's a lot of options.  The bullpen will start with: Duran, Jax, Lopez and Thielbar which is looking a whole helleva lot stronger than they started with in 2022.

If you would have told anyone on this site that the following players (Celestino, Garlick, Cave, Contreras, Beckham, Billy Hamilton) would combine for 653 PA and the season wasn't over yet, they would have told you this team probably isn't competitive.  They combined to hit .216/.263/.391 with 18 HR and 56 RBI.  You can blame it on the FO, or you can blame it on the slew of injuries to the young guys who the FO probably planned on taking the majority of those PA's.  

That's why I am optimistic for 2023 and why I think 2022 ended up falling pretty flat.  There is a huge sum of players under the age of 27 the Twins got little to zero value out of that all should be in play next season.  Then again if you are one to believe the Twins are just cursed and everyone is injury prone, then realistically they have no options and they are in another awful situation next year.