The 3 Most Upsetting Developments on the Farm This Year

[Nick Nelson]

If the Minnesota Twins are going to bounce back next year, it will take more than savvy offseason moves from the front office. Impact veterans help but, as we've seen with Carlos Correa, they can't do it all.

The Twins were partly derailed this year by a lack of expected contributions from key players in the system, including the following three premier talents. Unfortunately, their setback seasons will cast a shadow forward onto 2023.

Image courtesy of Ed Bailey, Wichita Wind Surge (Austin Martin)

Coming into the 2022 season, Twins Daily ranked Austin Martin, Jordan Balazovic and Matt Canterino as the first, fourth, and sixth best prospects in the organization, respectively. Not only were they high-caliber talents with polish and big upside, but they were all more or less on the precipice of major-league readiness. 

In each case, things hardly could've gone worse. Whether performance, injury, or a combination, each of these critical assets saw his stock nosedive over the past summer, and it adds another layer of complexity for a front office trying to build its way back to contention.

With that said, hope isn't lost for any of these three. Let's take a look at each of their campaigns so far, as things come close to wrapping up here in September.

Austin Martin and the power that never came.

The prize of last year's José Berríos trade at the deadline, Martin was billed as a near-ready prospect right out of the gates. It was warranted, after he led all of Double-A in on-base percentage during his first pro season. Despite his resounding success, Minnesota sent Martin back to the same level this year, no doubt hoping he'd shore up his biggest weakness from 2022 – an absence of power to complement the excellent OBP – and earn a quick call-up to Triple-A or even the majors.

That didn't happen. Martin's power trended the wrong direction this year. After slugging .382 with a .127 ISO and five home runs in 418 PAs between New Hampshire and Wichita, this year he's slugging .317 with an .074 ISO and two home runs in 406 PAs at Wichita. 

Martin has kept his on-base skills steady, with a .367 OBP despite the crummy .241 average, but his lack of ability to drive the ball with any authority almost renders it moot. Posting a .685 OPS as a 23-year-old in your second turn at Double-A, with no apparent underlying injury, is nothing short of disastrous. 

Given all the injuries the Twins have faced this season, it's likely Martin would've gotten a chance at some point if he'd even modestly improved his production from a year ago. His drop-off eliminated that possibility and will leave him as something of an afterthought heading into 2023. 

Martin's going to tank on national prospect lists, where he ranked around #50 by consensus coming into the season.

Why you shouldn't lose hope: Martin would hardly be the first player to develop significant power rapidly in his mid-20s. In fact, two "shortstop" prospects who came before him in the Twins system serve as optimistic precedents:

Brain Dozier totaled 14 home runs in 317 games through his first three minor-league seasons. Five years later he would set an American League record by launching 42 as a second baseman in 2016.

Jorge Polanco hit 35 total home runs total in 598 minor-league games, and could barely muster an XBH in his early days. He hit 33 home runs for the Twins last year.

Jordan Balazovic's puzzling struggles in St. Paul.

We had Balazovic ranked as the #1 pitcher in the system coming into this year, following a strong campaign at Double-A where he posted a 3.62 ERA and 9.5 K/9 rate as a 22-year-old. Relative to other arms in the system, Balazovic had a more consistent track record and more established workload base, which is why it seemed feasible to envision him playing a significant role in the Twins rotation this year.

His abominable performance at Triple-A has done away with that notion entirely. 

Balazovic started a month late with the Saints due to a knee strain. While he ostensibly put that behind him, staying healthy enough to take the mound each sixth day, he has never seemed right at any point. The right-hander's performance with St. Paul has been beyond awful. In 62 ⅔ innings across 20 appearances, he's 0-6 with a 7.47 ERA. Opponents have slashed .342/.412/.625 against him, as both his walk and home run rates have spiraled out of control. Balazovic has made 19 starts for the Saints and completed five innings ONCE.

In late June, Balazovic told Dean Spiros of the Pioneer Press his struggles were "like a puzzle; every day it’s something new."

"I’ve never pitched like this,” Balazovic said. “Last year (at Double-A Wichita) my numbers started to get worse in the second half because I was working on stuff. That’s kind of carried over to this season a little bit, but not to where it should be affecting me this bad.”

The big 6-foot-5 righty boiled his issues down to consistency and execution, but expressed hope he was getting closer to solving the puzzle. "I’m still hoping for that day," he said, "and I’m hoping that day is tomorrow."

It wasn't. The following day he needed 60 pitches to get through 2 ⅔ innings against the Iowa Cubs, allowing five hits (two homers) and two walks. His next time out he coughed up five earned runs in three innings against Omaha. These have been typical results for Balazovic this year, and as a result he's slid down a pitching pipeline hierarchy that's already been depleted by the Chase Petty trade and the development we'll look at next. 

Why you shouldn't lose hope: Balazovic didn't quite follow through on his "hoping that day is tomorrow" goal, but he might not have been far off? While he bombed in his next two starts, he's been on a bit of a roll ever since, posting a 2.52 ERA and 29-to-11 K/BB ratio with just three homers allowed over 25 innings in his past six starts. 

Sometimes guys need to experience their worst to unlock their best. Balazovic has plenty of talent to rebound and get back on track.

Matt Canterino and the elbow that finally gave way.

Canterino's elbow is the only thing that's stood in his way. Drafted 54th overall in 2019 after blowing people away at Rice University for three years, the hard-throwing righty immediately started doing the same to professional hitters. In a 25-inning debut between rookie ball and Low-A, he posted a 1.44 ERA with 31 strikeouts and only eight hits allowed.

Then, the pandemic happened and wiped out the 2020 season. In 2021, he was limited to 23 total innings by a forearm strain (he posted a 0.78 ERA when he was able to pitch). This year, his elbow soreness re-emerged and while the Twins continually tried to navigate around it, treating surgery as a last resort, they eventually ran out of options. "It felt like we didn't have anymore stones to turn over," said assistant GM Jeremy Zoll.

Unfortunately, the efforts to avoid surgery only delayed it, and now Canterino's prospective impact has also been pushed well down the line. Since he didn't undergo Tommy John until last month, Canterino will likely miss all of next year rehabbing, meaning that by the time he's ready to fully return to the mound, he'll be a 26-year-old with fewer than 100 innings as a pro. It's really difficult to come back from that.

Why you shouldn't lose hope: Difficult, but not impossible. The biggest cost of all this lost time would theoretically be missed development for a guy who's barely been able to get in-game reps since being drafted three years ago. For Canterino, I'm not sure it matters as much. 

He's basically always looked like a guy ready for the majors when he's pitched, with raw stuff that speaks for itself. So long as that stuff remains mostly intact after the surgery, he'll have a chance to get back up to speed quickly and make his long-awaited impact on the bullpen, even if it's not until 2024.

Feeling bummed out? I hear you! Make sure to check back tomorrow when I break down the most uplifting developments on the farm for the Twins this year ... Good news: I couldn't manage to limit that list to just three.

 

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[Karbo]

Maybe its time to leave Martin alone and let him hit the way he's comfortable hitting. IMO if he can play defense, a lower avg. is OK as long as his OB avg stays reasonable. 

[LewFordLives]

Depressing. 

Martin- As long as he keeps the OBP up I don't care about the power. How many times have the Twins had runners on first and third with no outs and then walk away with nothing because guys struck out while swinging for the fences. The bigger issue with Martin is where does he fit on defense.

Canterino- I don't have his medical records and I'm not a doctor. But yeah, one has to wonder if this situation could have been handled differently. 

Balazovic-In 2000 at AA Kyle Lohse went 3-18 with a 6.04 ERA. He went on to have pretty respectable career. Sometimes you have to struggle to find and toughen yourself.

[terrydactyls]

It might also be possible that his poor play at SS is affecting his batting.  With Lewis and Lee both ahead of him at SS, it's time to move him to another position and see if his hitting improves.

[Pwjxr56]

Falvene were hired to create a farm system that could produce position players and front line pitching.  They have been in charge for at least 5 years. Overall, their player scouting and development operation has produced almost no front of the rotation starters or everyday position players.  They have to often missed on the prospects and players they traded for.  The rate of injuries throughout the farm system over an extended period of time is a growing concern.

As we end this season we don’t have established everyday players at catcher, first base (unless that is Miranda’s position next year), shortstop (assuming Correa opts out), third base, and all three outfield positions.  With the exception of Ryan we have no real front of the rotation pitchers and the bullpen needs a lot of work. 

Covid certainly played a role in where we find ourselves.  That said, Falvene also bears some responsibility for where the team finds itself.  I’d welcome a reasoned discussion of how responsible they are for where things stand.
 

 

 

 

[RJA]

19 minutes ago, LewFordLives said:

Canterino- I don't have his medical records and I'm not a doctor. But yeah, one has to wonder if this situation could have been handled differently

I agree.  IMHO, Canterino is another example of the Twins failing to deal with medical issues appropriately.  If they plan to turn over every "stone" before looking at surgery, a lot of prospects are going suffer.  By delaying surgery, they cost him this year and next year.  Too bad, the kid has the talent to pitch in the bigs. 

[Doctor Gast]

I share your hope in these 3, Nick. I agree w/ Karbo & LewFordLives that as long as Martin get on base they should leave Martin's swing alone. They should let his power come naturally like Polanco & Dozier. For me, my biggest problem w/ Martin is he doesn't stick at SS and they should start grooming him at CF.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

I'm too depressed to comment. 

[Dman]

I know the OP focused on just three but IMO it was even worse than that. I would go on to argue Strotman and Henriquez and to some degree Sands were all equally disappointing at the minor league level as well.  The top of the 2020 draft with Sabato and Soularie continued to disappoint as well. I am giving Cavaco one more year but he too looks out of his depth at the plate.  So yeah plenty of of disappointing players on the farm this year and could argue the OP has the top three as those players all ranked higher in the system but the the disappointment goes beyond those 3.

I know I keep harping on it but the Twins need that pitching pipeline up and working without it they cannot compete.  They seem to be good at getting the most from guys drafted late but they all seem to be 5th starter types.  They need to find some front of the rotation types as well to make this work.

There were plenty of positives in the system as well.  Far more positive player outcomes than negative in the system Varland and Festa to name just a few.  With three of the 4 affiliates making the playoffs the system has good players the question is do they have elite players or MLB difference makers there?  I hope so.

[FlyingFinn]

43 minutes ago, RJA said:

I agree.  IMHO, Canterino is another example of the Twins failing to deal with medical issues appropriately.  If they plan to turn over every "stone" before looking at surgery, a lot of prospects are going suffer. 

There was someone in the medical profession that posted on TD in another thread - the last thing they want to do is put someone under the knife. So that's why they tried everything else first.

[AceWrigley]

1 hour ago, terrydactyls said:

It might also be possible that his poor play at SS is affecting his batting.  With Lewis and Lee both ahead of him at SS, it's time to move him to another position and see if his hitting improves.

Maybe he can be the new Tony Phillips.

[Otaknam]

With minor league starters dropping like flies I have to wonder about their approach to developing pitchers. In fact given the mountain of injuries on the big league club, resulting in a majority minor league lineup in a series they had to win, it makes you wonder about the entire medical staff’s handling of injuries. 

[tony&rodney]

1 hour ago, Pwjxr56 said:

As we end this season we don’t have established everyday players at catcher, first base (unless that is Miranda’s position next year), shortstop (assuming Correa opts out), third base, and all three outfield positions.  With the exception of Ryan we have no real front of the rotation pitchers and the bullpen needs a lot of work. 

Hopefully some miracles intervene because the team today looks unsteady. What you say holds truth and you are generous to have Ryan at the top of the rotation. Maybe the Twins can get a catcher in front of Jeffers who is an adequate reserve; health for 1B-Kirilloff; health for 2B-Polanco; defensive reps for 3B-Miranda; SS-Correa returns; LF-no idea; CF-Buxton for 81 games and ?; magic dust for RF-Kepler; and insane luck for the pitching staff. Hope is all fans have.

[stringer bell]

I thought at the beginning of the season there was a legitimate chance that all three would be helping the major league club. Martin's OBP skills and stolen base ability could be very helpful to the Twins as soon as next year despite his struggles this year. With Buxton's injury issues, and so many left handed corner OFs, it would figure that Martin could get lots of playing time in the outfield. 

Balazovic has pitched much better his last couple of starts and the ability is there. I would hope that next April he will be going 6-7 innings regularly for the Saints and be in a Twins uniform prior to the All-Star break. 

I guess we'll have to wait and see on Canterino. While I won't criticize anyone for trying to avoid surgery, it seems the Twins have gambled and lost too often in the last couple years.

[roger]

Great writing, Nick.  Unfortunately, the topic is too bloody sad to appreciate.

 

[Seth Stohs]

More like "Lack of Developments"... amirite?  ?

[Seth Stohs]

54 minutes ago, Otaknam said:

With minor league starters dropping like flies I have to wonder about their approach to developing pitchers. In fact given the mountain of injuries on the big league club, resulting in a majority minor league lineup in a series they had to win, it makes you wonder about the entire medical staff’s handling of injuries. 

I was really worried about that when the Twins hired Wes Johnson. As much time as they spend working on mechanics and studying the video of arm angles and release points (and all that has helped keep Bailey Ober's arm healthy, and probably others)... I also worry about the focus on velocity. It's a tough thing because its' clearly really important in the game, but it isn't natural for an arm. There have been arm injuries, but (without looking) I don't think there have been more than before. 

But yes, I do think that the whole medical staff and training philosophy needs to be analyzed... and I have no doubt in my mind that has been an ongoing study as well. How many of the injuries were freaky, can't do much about it kind of things (broken bones, hit by pitches, etc) and how many are soft tissue, muscle types of things. 

[jmlease1]

1 hour ago, RJA said:

I agree.  IMHO, Canterino is another example of the Twins failing to deal with medical issues appropriately.  If they plan to turn over every "stone" before looking at surgery, a lot of prospects are going suffer.  By delaying surgery, they cost him this year and next year.  Too bad, the kid has the talent to pitch in the bigs. 

Eh, I dunno. I think the real issue with Canterino is he went to Rice and they abused the @&$*%# out of his arm. But you don't really know for sure where it's at until he pitches, and they lost all of 2020 as an option. I suspect he would have ended up on the surgery list in 2021 if they hadn't lost that minor-league season. It's hard to get too upset about the medical team trying to avoid surgical options, since that's usually better for the person even if it might mean that it hurts the team later.

Martin is a puzzle, but I'm certainly not ready to give up on him. His speed and on-base skills certainly play. I wouldn't call this a healthy season for him since he missed almost 6 weeks in the middle of it. I have to wonder how much of his development got screwed up by having no 2020 minor league season and then getting dropped into AA immediately. He's literally never played a game of A-ball in his pro career, and outside of a 2-game rehab stint in rookie ball (which I assume was so they could see him play while close to the medical facilities in Ft. Myers), he hasn't ever played below AA.

Balazovic has had the nagging injuries this season, but for him to be so wildly ineffective when supposedly healthy has been really confusing. he's been staggeringly hittable. The last handful of starts have been better (K's are back up and he's limited the damage), but he's still giving up too many hits while handing out free passes. He's given up 2 walks in 7 of the last 8 starts (15 walks in only 32 2/3 innings is not going to get it done, especially when you give up 35 hits in the same span). He needs a reset.

[Seth Stohs]

1 hour ago, Dman said:

There were plenty of positives in the system as well.  Far more positive player outcomes than negative in the system Varland and Festa to name just a few.  With three of the 4 affiliates making the playoffs the system has good players the question is do they have elite players or MLB difference makers there?  I hope so.

Of note, the fourth affiliate, the one that didn't make the playoffs, is the Saints... and there are no Triple-A playoffs. Also, there is such a turnover on that roster that it would be impossible to find any consistency to compete. Even just this past weekend, Rodriguez was supposed to start on Saturday, he got called up Saturday morning. Henriquez was supposed to start Sunday. He got called up Sunday morning. "Excuses?" Sure... also just the reality of a feeder affiliate. 

Varland and Festa... Headrick. Nowlin... Traded Povich and Hajjar (with Steer and CES) to get Lopez and Mahle. They're developing pitching prospects. Those prospects now just need to make that final step. Guys like Ryan, Ober, Winder, Varland are a pretty solid starting point. 

[gunnarthor]

I'm still a big fan of Martin and think he'll right the ship. Balzovic will pitch in the majors, I'm not sure how well though. I was hoping he'd be another solid Joe Ryan-type. I'm sure he'll get a chance next year.

[bean5302]

When it comes to Martin, the Dozier comp is with the bat felt fair (and it's one I thought about in the back of my mind), but I'm not as sure after looking him up. Dozier developed a fair amount of pop at age 23, though it was in lower level play than Martin, and Dozier was an 8th round pick, not a guy who was scouted so highly or considered so close to MLB ready. Dozier also talked about how he changed his swing. The 800 lb gorilla is also that... Dozier was passable, defensively. Dozier's RF/9 at shortstop was generally around 4.50 in the minors, and not unplayable at the MLB level at SS back in a time when the Twins cared about defense. Martin's RF/9 was more like 3.25, after he cleaned up his defense significantly.  He was still the worst SS in the league by a mile. Martin cannot even come close to handling the position by the limited metrics. Dozier also adapted his swing a number of times to squeeze every inch of life out of it he could. Martin's had 1-1/2 to adapt his swing to showcase some of the raw power scouts believed he had and it hasn't worked. Not only is Martin's hit tool looking suspect, but his power never materialized. 

Dozier
a22 2009 (R) - .349/.414/.422 .837 OPS wRC+ 139
a23 2010 (A) - .278/.347/.338 .685 OPS wRC+ 95
a23 2010 (A+) - .274/.352/.354 .706 OPS wRC+ 106
a24 2011 (A+) - .322/.423/.472 .895 OPS wRC+ 151
a24 2011 (AA) - .318/.384/.502 .885 OPS wRC+ 145
a25 2012 (AAA) - .232/.286/.337 .623 OPS wRC+ 70

I have no idea what to think of Balazovic's struggles other than... his stuff just didn't play at AAA. He's had a couple nice starts to end the season. One at the end of regular season and one in the playoffs. The previous regular season start saw him put a bunch of guys on base who just didn't score. Nobody gives up that many home runs with working stuff. It just cannot happen. I haven't seen a prospect tank that hard, ever. But, hopefully, he can put together a much, much better campaign next year or the Twins can move him to the pen.

I didn't expect anything from Canterino. He's just always been hurt. No changes there now. Somebody talked about a JT Chargois comp a while back. It does kinda feel that way. I'm not at all excited about Canterino at this point. He needs more proof he can be effective outside the low minors. Canterino may have a sparkly ERA at AA, but he walked 5.8 per 9 innings. That will not age well. Could be instability in the elbow like Duran seemed to be dealing with last year, but one can only hope.

 

[DJL44]

3 hours ago, Karbo said:

Maybe its time to leave Martin alone and let him hit the way he's comfortable hitting. IMO if he can play defense, a lower avg. is OK as long as his OB avg stays reasonable. 

Disagree. He's hitting .241 at Double-A. That isn't playable in the big leagues, his average will be below .200. He has already shown he doesn't play elite SS defense and that is what it takes to carry a bat that weak.

He doesn't need 25 HR power but he does need to hit the ball hard enough to ISO above .100. He had an ISO of .200 at Vanderbilt.

[tony&rodney]

Balazovic has work to do but definitely has the stuff. When I watch him I see a guy with a live fastball that moves and a good breaking balls with sharp bend. The problem is twofold: inexperience and he seemingly gets frustrated which is pretty useless to point to except that he often grooves pitches after not getting a close call or making a poor pitch. JB needs polish ecause his ability to command his arsenal of above average offerings is poor. He is pretty much the opposite of Joe Ryan or Bailey Ober, guys who display both command and control of their pitches. Balazovic can still be a very good MLB starting pitcher. He needs to be throwing 80-110 pitches every start and learn to harness his pitches.

[Mike Sixel]

2 hours ago, gunnarthor said:

I'm still a big fan of Martin and think he'll right the ship. Balzovic will pitch in the majors, I'm not sure how well though. I was hoping he'd be another solid Joe Ryan-type. I'm sure he'll get a chance next year.

This. They need to put Martin at second or left or center and let him get comfortable, imo.

[bean5302]

4 hours ago, jmlease1 said:

Eh, I dunno. I think the real issue with Canterino is he went to Rice and they abused the @&$*%# out of his arm...

I think I've addressed this myth before, but Canterino was never close to leading college baseball in innings or anything like that. As I recall, he averaged between 5-6 innings per start his whole college career. There were several pitchers well ahead of Canterino in innings in the Big 10.

[bighat]

Martin looks like he'll become another Twins "top prospect" to make his MLB debut at age 25 or 26. Meanwhile Ronald Acuna has a World Series ring and 5 All-Star games before he turned 25. 

I know I get my wrist slapped every time I compare Twins prospects to Acuna, but the Braves aren't the only team who have 20 or 21 year-old phenoms on the MLB roster. Why is our HS draft pick from 2019 still in A ball? Cavaco will be 22 next summer and might not even have cracked the Kernel's roster! Why is our college-aged draft pick from 2020 still in AA ball? Aaron Sabato is a DH-only player who can't hit very well and will 24 next summer. 

Bad draft picks, plus this farm system develops guys waayyyyyy too slowly, and even with that, they can't keep 'em healthy. 

We may be facing 5-6 years of a cellar-dwelling teardown. 

[Five minute major]

Trading away Steer and CES for an injured pitcher has to be in the "special considerations" category.  Huge mistake IMO.  

[bean5302]

2 hours ago, bighat said:

Martin looks like he'll become another Twins "top prospect" to make his MLB debut at age 25 or 26. Meanwhile Ronald Acuna has a World Series ring and 5 All-Star games before he turned 25. 

I know I get my wrist slapped every time I compare Twins prospects to Acuna, but the Braves aren't the only team who have 20 or 21 year-old phenoms on the MLB roster. Why is our HS draft pick from 2019 still in A ball? Cavaco will be 22 next summer and might not even have cracked the Kernel's roster! Why is our college-aged draft pick from 2020 still in AA ball? Aaron Sabato is a DH-only player who can't hit very well and will 24 next summer. 

Bad draft picks, plus this farm system develops guys waayyyyyy too slowly, and even with that, they can't keep 'em healthy. 

We may be facing 5-6 years of a cellar-dwelling teardown. 

Nick Gordon is better than Acuna this year, just sayin'

[Rosterman]

The Twins jumped Wander Javier to AAA. This is sink or keep fall for Wander. WIll the Twins see enough of him in St. Paul to add him to the 40-man, or does Wander...wander off to other psures. Palacios or Javier, that could be the question!t

[puckstopper1]

9 hours ago, Dman said:

I know I keep harping on it but the Twins need that pitching pipeline up and working without it they cannot compete.  They seem to be good at getting the most from guys drafted late but they all seem to be 5th starter types.  They need to find some front of the rotation types as well to make this work.

They potentially had drafted a top of the rotation guy in Petty - but they traded his away for Gray.