Starting Pitching

[Parfigliano]

On 9/18/2022 at 7:34 AM, gunnarthor said:

Depends on your definition of ace but Santana was a legit ace, Liriano occasionally pitched like one, Radke was much better than people remember.  But, yeah, aces are really rare. But there's a long way between "sign only aces" and "create a competent pitching staff." Pitching is hard but the FO was brought in to replicate the 2000s Twins' success, a decade in which only 10% of starts were made by free agents.

So far, they've completely failed to do that so we have a the pitching failures of the last two years.

I met Brad Radke in the Hooter's near Arlington Stadium.  

[Battle ur tail off]

17 hours ago, ashbury said:

Ace is a slippery term.  Got a World Series winner?  Best guy on the starting staff is a bona fide ace!  Same guy on a different team?  Maybe not.  I don't personally find the side discussion useful.

My point is, the cart doesn't come before the horse. You mostly are not going to the world series or winning it if you don't have a guy that gives you over 160 innings of 3-ish or under ERA ball. 2 of them is better. In the history of baseball, there hasn't been a team that has won the WS with gaggles of 4 and 5 type guys. 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_World_Series_starting_pitchers

Just look at this list. It's a who's who of ace pitchers throughout the years. I don't see a team in there with 4 #4 guys. 

The only one I can remember that has bucked this trend has been the 2015 KC Royals. They also may have had the best bullpen in the history of baseball though...

[Squirrel]

18 hours ago, Nine of twelve said:

Maeda was pretty acey in 2020, short season notwithstanding.

Which is why I said a pitcher can have an 'ace like' season and then go back to who they are. This idea of needing an ace to be competitive, I don't think is true, but I haven't done the research. And we've had an ace, and still didn't win. To me that says it's something else in how we must construct our starting rotation and our BP.

[ashbury]

1 hour ago, Battle ur tail off said:

My point is, the cart doesn't come before the horse. You mostly are not going to the world series or winning it if you don't have a guy that gives you over 160 innings of 3-ish or under ERA ball. 2 of them is better. In the history of baseball, there hasn't been a team that has won the WS with gaggles of 4 and 5 type guys. 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_World_Series_starting_pitchers

Just look at this list. It's a who's who of ace pitchers throughout the years. I don't see a team in there with 4 #4 guys. 

The only one I can remember that has bucked this trend has been the 2015 KC Royals. They also may have had the best bullpen in the history of baseball though...

I once saw a factoid that 10% of all plate appearances ever in Major League history had been taken by Hall of Fame players.  That's probably out of date with all the expansion of teams through the years, and arguably a tightening of HoF voting patterns, but at whatever point it was true, it highlighted that excellent players will keep showing up when you look at baseball history because, well, they were excellent.

So when I see a list of WS starters, it's not surprising to see a lot of acknowledged Aces.  There's no question that to make it to the World Series you need a lot of excellent performances.

But a list like that leads to endless debate.  Do you NEED an ace to reach the WS?  The 2015 Royals already have been brought up.  How about the following season?  Was Jon Lester an Ace for the Cubs?  I asked that question to The Googles and it turned up an opinion piece from 2014 when the Cubs acquired him that summarized "if Lester continues churning out 200-inning seasons, the Cubs will be happy".  How about 2020 - was Tyler Glasnow the ace for the Rays?

It's the kind of debate I find endless and tedious.

The statement was that you need an ace to reach the World Series.  I believe instead you need excellent seasons from multiple pitchers, and those seasons can come from aces if you can acquire or develop them, but those seasons can also come from pitchers who will never be acknowledged as an ace yet have a career year or two that get you there.

[chpettit19]

1 hour ago, Battle ur tail off said:

My point is, the cart doesn't come before the horse. You mostly are not going to the world series or winning it if you don't have a guy that gives you over 160 innings of 3-ish or under ERA ball. 2 of them is better. In the history of baseball, there hasn't been a team that has won the WS with gaggles of 4 and 5 type guys. 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_World_Series_starting_pitchers

Just look at this list. It's a who's who of ace pitchers throughout the years. I don't see a team in there with 4 #4 guys. 

The only one I can remember that has bucked this trend has been the 2015 KC Royals. They also may have had the best bullpen in the history of baseball though...

The last 2 World Series have had multiple "bullpen games" and seen 0 pitchers in 12 games go more than 6 innings, and only 3 of 24 starts have even gone 6 innings. I think the myth of aces winning in the postseason has pretty well been shattered. You need a good/great pitching staff. That's what you need. 10 guys you can rely on to get outs against the best offenses in baseball.

2019 was the year of the World Series ace with Cole, Verlander, Strasburg, and Scherzer all in the WS. 2018 had 3 7 game starts so there was some "aceness" there. 2017 had 3 starts out of 14 that went more than 6 innings. 2016 had 0 starts over 6 innings, and only 2 that completed 6 (out of 14 starts). 2015 had Cueto go all 9 in 1 start, and the only other start over 6 was the one Harvey blew when they kept him in too long. 2014 had just 3 starts that went over 6 innings out of 14 starts. Point being that the vast majority of World Series starts don't even make it through 6 innings. That's not exactly ace type stuff.

Mahle and Gray would both fit in on current playoff level rotations. Duran would obviously fit right in in any pen. Maeda likely still has at least 1 year of being a playoff quality arm left (whether in the rotation or multi-inning pen guy like the Dodgers used him as is up for debate). The Twins problem is that leaves them about 6 arms short for a real playoff run. Maybe Ryan develops into another playoff reliable arm. Maybe Winder? Jax? Alcala? The Twins problem this year is they tried treating the 162 game regular season like the playoffs and completely burned out their pen. But there are not aces doing ace things in many recent World Series games anymore. Unless we're now counting 6 innings as ace level production.

[laloesch]

On 9/18/2022 at 9:34 AM, gunnarthor said:

Radke was much better than people remember. .

 

I watched Radke pitch A LOT during his years in Minnesota.  At times he could be very good but he also got shellacked A LOT in his 12 seasons with the Twins.  Don't get me wrong i'd take him on this team in a heart beat especially if he was the 1997 version.   

[laloesch]

8 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

The Twins problem this year is they tried treating the 162 game regular season like the playoffs and completely burned out their pen. But there are not aces doing ace things in many recent World Series games anymore. Unless we're now counting 6 innings as ace level production.

Agreed.  They have to start pushing the starters to go deeper into games.  Maybe it's the manager that's the problem.  IDK.

[chpettit19]

Just now, laloesch said:

Agreed.  They have to start pushing the starters to go deeper into games.  Maybe it's the manager that's the problem.  IDK.

I think it's a FO and manager problem.

[TwinsDr2021]

On 9/20/2022 at 8:07 AM, Squirrel said:

I don't think the problem was Archer and Bundy, but that they were in the rotation back to back, and that they didn't have the long-relief needed to compensate. I don't think either is that awful to be a #5 starter. Both did give us some good games. For me, the issue is building a better BP. One that works with the starters and usage plan they have. I hope they rethink and tweak that usage plan, but mostly, I really want them to build THE bp. They aren't going to go out there and buy the best starting pitching and they aren't going to spend their farm on it, either. So, you stock the starting staff with pitchers who aren't going to go long, but will (hopefully) keep us in games. The answer is the BP, not the starters.

The two combined to start 52 games, the Twins won 21. In those 52 games the Twins got 234.66 innings and a ERA of 4.51. and averaged less than 4 2/3 innings and that isn't a problem?

From June 14th on the Twins lost 11 of Archer's last 13 starts. From the Beginning of August the Twins went 5 and 4 in Bundy's starts which isn't bad, but in those 9 starts he game averaged less than 5 innings a start and once went 5 1/2 meaning the bullpen had to pitch basically half the game in those starts.

I agree with everything else you said.

[TwinsDr2021]

26 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

The Twins problem is that leaves them about 6 arms short for a real playoff run. Maybe Ryan develops into another playoff reliable arm. Maybe Winder? Jax? Alcala?

The Twins problem this year is they tried treating the 162 game regular season like the playoffs and completely burned out their pen

First sentence is ? spot on as is the second. The second sentence should pasted on the top of every message thread on this site!

[Richie the Rally Goat]

My assumption is the FO won’t do any external transactions for the rotation.

my prediction:
Gray, Mahle, Ryan, Maeda, Paddack

Ober, Winder, SWR as the primary reserves in AAA.

Dark horse candidate for the rotation: Duran

if this is an accurate prediction, the bullpen will continue to be critical to get right. It was vastly improved in the second half of the year, it’ll need to continue to improve.

[SwainZag]

3 minutes ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

My assumption is the FO won’t do any external transactions for the rotation.

my prediction:
Gray, Mahle, Ryan, Maeda, Paddack

Ober, Winder, SWR as the primary reserves in AAA.

Dark horse candidate for the rotation: Duran

if this is an accurate prediction, the bullpen will continue to be critical to get right. It was vastly improved in the second half of the year, it’ll need to continue to improve.

Probably very little chance Paddack is ready before mid-summer.  

You are also missing Varland in the mix who def. has a chance at cracking the rotation.

[Battle ur tail off]

23 hours ago, ashbury said:

The statement was that you need an ace to reach the World Series.  I believe instead you need excellent seasons from multiple pitchers, and those seasons can come from aces if you can acquire or develop them, but those seasons can also come from pitchers who will never be acknowledged as an ace yet have a career year or two that get you there.

Agree 100%! No, the pitcher wouldn't have to be considered an ace. But, you do need ACE like performance from 1-2 guys to make real noise IMO.

Do we have any of those guys? Maybe? Hopefully!! 

[Battle ur tail off]

On 9/21/2022 at 12:51 PM, chpettit19 said:

The last 2 World Series have had multiple "bullpen games" and seen 0 pitchers in 12 games go more than 6 innings, and only 3 of 24 starts have even gone 6 innings. I think the myth of aces winning in the postseason has pretty well been shattered. You need a good/great pitching staff. That's what you need. 10 guys you can rely on to get outs against the best offenses in baseball.

2019 was the year of the World Series ace with Cole, Verlander, Strasburg, and Scherzer all in the WS. 2018 had 3 7 game starts so there was some "aceness" there. 2017 had 3 starts out of 14 that went more than 6 innings. 2016 had 0 starts over 6 innings, and only 2 that completed 6 (out of 14 starts). 2015 had Cueto go all 9 in 1 start, and the only other start over 6 was the one Harvey blew when they kept him in too long. 2014 had just 3 starts that went over 6 innings out of 14 starts. Point being that the vast majority of World Series starts don't even make it through 6 innings. That's not exactly ace type stuff.

Mahle and Gray would both fit in on current playoff level rotations. Duran would obviously fit right in in any pen. Maeda likely still has at least 1 year of being a playoff quality arm left (whether in the rotation or multi-inning pen guy like the Dodgers used him as is up for debate). The Twins problem is that leaves them about 6 arms short for a real playoff run. Maybe Ryan develops into another playoff reliable arm. Maybe Winder? Jax? Alcala? The Twins problem this year is they tried treating the 162 game regular season like the playoffs and completely burned out their pen. But there are not aces doing ace things in many recent World Series games anymore. Unless we're now counting 6 innings as ace level production.

How many runs did those starters that only went should I say 5 or 6 give up more than 1 or at most 2 runs? Were there games in the playoffs where some of them went 7-8 of 0-1 run ball to get to where they were ALDS, ALCS, etc? Games that were won, how many of these guys went 4-6 innings giving up 2-3 runs?

Yes, yank your guy after 6, but if it's 6 with zero or one(against a WS caliber lineup), that is an ACE to me. There is no doubt in my mind that if we threw our staff out there against WS contending teams in a win or go home situation(Houston, Dodgers, etc), that ZERO of them would be able to hold it to 0-1 through even 5 or 6. Heck, we have seen it this year what happens to the starters we are running out there against this caliber of team. 

 

 

[chpettit19]

20 hours ago, Battle ur tail off said:

How many runs did those starters that only went should I say 5 or 6 give up more than 1 or at most 2 runs? Were there games in the playoffs where some of them went 7-8 of 0-1 run ball to get to where they were ALDS, ALCS, etc? Games that were won, how many of these guys went 4-6 innings giving up 2-3 runs?

Yes, yank your guy after 6, but if it's 6 with zero or one(against a WS caliber lineup), that is an ACE to me. There is no doubt in my mind that if we threw our staff out there against WS contending teams in a win or go home situation(Houston, Dodgers, etc), that ZERO of them would be able to hold it to 0-1 through even 5 or 6. Heck, we have seen it this year what happens to the starters we are running out there against this caliber of team. 

 

 

Last year's WS starters by game (by the way, these things are easily googled):

Game 1
Charlie Morton 2.1 innings 0 earned
Framber Valdez 2 innings 5 earned

Game 2
Max Fried 5 innings 6 earned
Jose Urquidy 5 innings 2 earned

Game 3
Luis Garcia 3.2 innings 1 earned (basically a bullpen game)
Ian Anderson 5 innings 0 earned

Game 4
Zack Grienke 4 innings 0 earned
Kyle Wright (technically didn't start) 4.2 innings 1 earned, but also gave up the earned run for Dylan Lee

Game 5
Framber Valdez 2.2 innings 5 earned
Bullpen game because they didn't even have enough playoff quality starters to fill their rotation

Game 6
Max Fried 6 innings 0 earned
Luis Garcia 2.2 innings 3 earned (basically a bullpen game)

Did guys have good outings throughout the playoffs? Of course they did! Did either of these teams have a stable of aces? No! Fried is the only one remotely close to a #1 starter and he had a game that he went 5 and gave up 6 earned runs. There was 1 "ace" start in that series. Even by what I'd consider to be a very loose definition of an ace. An ace doesn't give up 6 runs in 11 world series innings.

Did the Braves win world series after world series with Glavine, Maddux, and Smoltz? Have the Dodgers been rattling off world series victories with Buehler and Kershaw? Or last year with Buehler and Scherzer? This notion that the postseason is won and lost by aces simply isn't true. If the answer is "yes, yank your guy after 6" then you're not talking about an ace. Period. End of story. Aces aren't pulled after 6. Championships are won by complete teams with complete staffs of 10 guys who can get top hitters out and complete lineups that also run the bases and field well. How many playoff wins did Johan Santana have? 1, is the correct answer there. Because it takes a complete team, and complete staff. If you're pulling your ace after 6 innings that means you're likely pulling your other guys after 5 which means you're basically the 2022 MN Twins.

Oh, and Sonny Gray went out in what was essentially a playoff game on September 8th while the Twins fought to stay in contention and went 6 innings 1 earned in Yankee Stadium. Shoot, Louie Varland went 5.1 and only 2 earned.

[Battle ur tail off]

Braves rotation took them to the World Series how many times? More than one group of pitchers in the history of the game I bet. That one stable of 3 or so guys got them to the World Series like 5 times. Unreal you would use them to make this argument. They literally are a bullet point how important guys like that are for your chances. 

I get the game has changed some, but the point still remains. If you don't have a few of these types of guys, your chances, flat out are not better. I don't care about an obscure series here or there, look at it overall. That list I gave says it all, filled with big name guys. 

I just don't understand how you can argue your chances are not better to win and advance in the postseason without guys like this. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[baul0010]

For me, It was Rodon, Ray, or Gausman.  All 3 have been very solid to very good.  Gausman and Ray are both pushing 200K's for the year with ERA's under 3.70.  I think both have 30 starts on the year.  

I think it has more to do with targeting the correct pitching.  I don't think our F.O. has shown they are capable of that.  

[chpettit19]

1 hour ago, Battle ur tail off said:

Braves rotation took them to the World Series how many times? More than one group of pitchers in the history of the game I bet. That one stable of 3 or so guys got them to the World Series like 5 times. Unreal you would use them to make this argument. They literally are a bullet point how important guys like that are for your chances. 

I get the game has changed some, but the point still remains. If you don't have a few of these types of guys, your chances, flat out are not better. I don't care about an obscure series here or there, look at it overall. That list I gave says it all, filled with big name guys. 

I just don't understand how you can argue your chances are not better to win and advance in the postseason without guys like this. 

 

That trio of pitchers made it to 3 world series ('95 W, '96 L, '99 L) in the 9 seasons they overlapped. Yeah, that's a pretty good percentage for getting there (and I'd obviously take that for the Twins), but that's 3 aces on one staff and that was good for 1 ring in 9 years. If that's your big selling point I'm even less impressed. If you go outside of just the years those 3 were there together the Braves World Series rings sky rocket to, oh wait, it's still just the 1 during that time frame. Not exactly screaming "you need tons of aces to win the world series!" there. What you suggest is the most dominant playoff starting staff "in the history of the game" got 1 World Series ring. 1.

I literally gave you 8 years of data, not "an obscure series here or there." The "obscure series" was because you questioned my 8 years of data so I provided the actual game by game data for one of those series. Would you like me to do every year back to 2014 in game by game form even though I already gave you series by series data? Feels like you're just holding onto hope that there's something hidden in there that proves you're right that aces, or even ace performances which you've attempted to shift the goalposts to, are what's necessary to win the World Series.

Of course your chances are better with aces. Who said they weren't? Your point was that you aren't going to or winning World Series without an ace. My point was that the ace isn't the important part, but a staff with 10 guys who can get playoff hitters out is the important part. 

The last 20 World Series champs have averaged the 9th best rotation ERA during the regular seasons of their championship years. That's not screaming "full of aces" to me. That means you have to be in the top 3rd of starting staffs in baseball. Not exactly elite.

2020 World Series starters stats:
Glasnow 4.1 innings 6 earned
Kershaw 6 innings 1 earned (his best postseason start ever probably)

Snell 4.2 with 2 earned
Bullpen game

Buehler 6 with 1 earned (also meets your loose definition of an ace perfomance!)
Morton 4.1 and 5 earned

Urias 4.2 with 2 earned
Yarbrough 3.1 2 earned to lead that half bullpen game the rays do

Kershaw 5.2 with 2 earned (dang, back outside the "ace performance" metrics)
Glasnow 5 innings 4 earned

Snell 5.1 with 1 earned
Bullpen game to finish the series cuz they only had 3 playoff worthy starters

2019 World Series starter stats: aka "the series of the ace"
Scherzer 5 innings 2 earned
Cole 7 innings 5 earned

Strasburg 6 innings 2 earned
Verlander 6 innings 4 earned

Grienke 4.2 with 1 earned
Sanchez 5.1 innings 4 earned

Urquidy 5 innings 0 earned
Corbin 6 innings 4 earned

Cole 7 innings 1 earned (finally an "ace performance!")
Ross 5 innings 4 earned

Strasburg 8.1 innings with 2 earned runs (what I'd consider the first "ace performance" we've come across in the 3 series I've done)
Verlander 5 innings 3 earned

Strasburg 5 innings 2 earned
Grienke 6.1 innings 2 earned

So even the "series of the ace" with Scherzer, Cole, Verlander, Corbin, and Strasburg all involved we saw 2 "ace performances" out of 14 starts. So in 2021 we had 1 "ace performance" as defined by you. 2020 had 2. 2019 had 2. So 5 "ace performances" (even with just needing 6 innings to qualify) out of 28 starts. We'll round that up to 18% of World Series starts, including a series with 5 guys people would call aces, with "ace performances." I'm not impressed by the World Series ace work. There were as many "bullpen games" as there were "ace performances." That doesn't speak volumes to you?

Now we're up to 3 "obscure series." Shall I keep going or can we agree it's not about having an ace it's about having a staff of 10 dudes who can get playoff hitters out, an offense that can hit playoff pitchers, and limited mistakes on the base paths and in the field? I'll stick with the Twins having 3 or 4 guys currently set to be on their 2023 roster who I'd trust to get playoff outs. We're really, really, really short on playoff arms. But I don't see a reason to believe they need an ace to have any chance to compete when aces simply don't do what you claim they do in the playoffs.

[ashbury]

6 hours ago, Battle ur tail off said:

I just don't understand how you can argue your chances are not better to win and advance in the postseason without guys like this.

No one is arguing that.  The responses have been to your first post in the thread, which was all about absolutes, and asking for an example of "the last time" a WS team didn't have 1 or even 2 aces.  When those examples were given, you modified your position (you don't care now about obscure examples here or there), which reflects nothing except good conversation being had and minds maybe being changed, but don't attribute statements to others that aren't being made.  Of course a team's chances improve with each increment of better talent and/or performance that season.