Guardians 4, Twins 3: Cold Offense, Defensive Miscues, Cost the Twins the Game

[rwilfong86]

1 hour ago, Danchat said:

Rocco's version? There is no way the front office is letting him run his own version of analytics, it's clear to me that he's executing their plan, as if they weren't happy with what he was doing, they would force him to change it up... similar to how Molitor got the can, with one of the reasons being letting his starters stay in too long (in their eyes).

Exactly, this is a Falvine problem, not just a Rocco one. Having the current front office hire a new manager is likely going to have them find another analytics-driven manager, which I'm sure everyone would be stoked about!

And the problem is that Rocco may not be allowed to sent him out there more than 70 pitches, especially with how Ober's innings were managed last year. 

Rocco's version as opposed to how other teams use analytics but not at the expense of common sense and having a baseball IQ. 

[rwilfong86]

3 hours ago, wabene said:

"Opinion:  a view or judgment formed about something, not necessarily based on fact or knowledge." This is true. 

"An  opinion, by definition, can't be wrong; it is based on a viewpoint.  It is how someone views something.  A viewpoint can't be proven or disproven; it is an opinion." I don't think this follows logically. 

In this case @rwilfong86stated that the team quit on Baldelli. A serious accusation against the players and manager. In a bad season the team's best stretch of ball was the last three months. If a team had truly quit how would that manifest itself logically? By playing better? Sometimes things have to make sense, don't they? 

Are you asking a serious question? You can tell by players body language when they've pretty much given up because they know that what their manager is doing not going to lead to success. Last summer was pretty obvious example of this.

[wabene]

1 hour ago, USAFChief said:

He can't ramp up from pitching into the 5th with 66 pitches to pitching into the 6th with maybe 80 pitches?

 

Then he shouldn't have been activated. 

 

The situation DEMANDED he at least start the 6th. Rocco managed to burn his entire trusted relief corps Thursday, double header today, realistically need at least 4 of 5.

 

I don't blame that on anyone but Rocco. Maybe he's just a front office errand boy, and maybe he isn't, but he needs to be a big league manager in that situation and manage.

 

 

That's why I strategically said 7 or 8 innings, lol. He should've have gone out for the 6th. I also agree that using the top relievers the night before with this series and a double header coming doesn't make sense to me.

[wabene]

2 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

I've been one of the bigger FO/Rocco defenders on these pages this season. Not because I love everything they do, or think they're all great. I'm not a "Rocco lover" (I don't think you'd find many Rocco lovers anymore, just Rocco understanders). I think the FO/Rocco (yes, they need to all be viewed as 1 entity, Rocco is simply an extension of the FO) have set the Twins up in a good spot moving forward, but I now want to see a different FO team and manager take the team from here.

Their complete inability to adjust on the fly has destroyed this season. The injuries have certainly compounded things, but even some of that appears to be self inflicted. How does Kepler start 1 game, and have a handful of brutal pinch hitting appearances, since September 4th and just get put on the IL today (retroactive to the 14th)? They completely wasted a roster spot for 13 days. I don't expect Wallner to light the world on fire the rest of the season, and Contreras is nothing to write home about, but let's at least try instead of tying our own hands. They did the same thing with Polanco. 4-6 week injuries turn into 8-12 week injuries. Either they have too big of a voice in medical decisions (and force conservative handling of players), or they've hired absolutely horrible medical staffs and refused to move on from them when it's become painfully clear.

The short starts have caught up to them and they continue to ignore it and refuse to change the strategy. I don't think they have a great rotation, and actually think having regular shorter starts has helped prop that unit up, but at some point you have to acknowledge the season is on the line and you have to try to get an extra inning out of guys. Ober had 4 rehab starts and his last one was 66 pitches. If he couldn't have pressed to 80 yesterday you shouldn't have started him. Or at least not have had the plan to use all but one of your top relievers for a second straight day before going into a double header. Are there people in the FO that push back and are ignored or is everyone from Falvey to Rocco in lock step on this? If they don't have a contingent pushing back then they're screwed and their echo chamber will doom the rest of their time in MN.

I like the roster. I think the development systems are in a great place. There's a real organizational base to build from already in place, but I think it's time to move on from the Falvine/Rocco era. They just don't seem to have the ability to make on the fly changes or adjustments to their plans. I gave them the whole season to see if they'd start extending pitchers a little (and, to be fair, they did let Gray and Ryan go 7 against KC), but they've put their team behind the 8 ball in their season defining series with continual self inflicted bullpen overuse. I don't know how many games the Pohlads actually watch, but if they were watching last night and didn't start having second thoughts about their people in charge then they truly don't care about the Twins ever winning. All they needed was 1 extra inning out of Ober last night in the most important game of the year to this point, and they just couldn't stop being overly cautious (blows my mind that they look at the IL situation and think their limiting of players is helping them stay healthy) and sticking to the plan.

I think it's time to turn the keys over to a new regime.

I'm slowly coming around to this, sadly. It is in part because of your excellent posts @chpettit19. The reason it has been so hard for me to give up on this new regime is moving on from the TR experience was so far overdue. I wasn't on board with bringing him on for his second go round and was very excited for change. I liked the revamping of the organization and the idea of a well developed pitching pipeline. Better talent development overall. I'd be inclined to give them one more year with the expectation that something is done about the injury problem and that the bullpen and starters going deeper is prioritized. With the owner's track record I highly doubt they make a move, but if they do it will be a whirlwind off-season.

[DJL44]

40 minutes ago, wabene said:

using the top relievers the night before with this series and a double header coming doesn't make sense to me.

The team has their back against the wall. Teams with a 4 game lead can afford to let a win go by, this team can't.

[DJL44]

23 minutes ago, wabene said:

I liked the revamping of the organization and the idea of a well developed pitching pipeline. Better talent development overall.

I am actually impressed by the development and coaching staff in the minor leagues. They've turned late round pitchers like Ober and Varland into potentially useful major leaguers. I think they're starving the pipeline by not giving it some high-end talent to develop. They don't sign any Latin American pitchers as amateur free agents. They rarely use top draft picks on pitchers and they don't draft enough pitchers. They also tend to go after injured pitchers in the draft (Canterino, Prielipp) to get value. The pitchers they sign as free agents are "value" picks out of the bargain bin - innings-eater starting pitchers for the rotation and minimum salaried minor league free agents for the bullpen. 

[bean5302]

3 hours ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

Some observations & comments...

Gordon is a utility guy playing every day due to injuries.  We've got to expect games like the one he played last night occasionally...

You're a bit late to the "complain about Gordon's defense party" even if we include the BS error call from last night.

At 2B, Gordon's stats are universally average or above average. UZR, RF, Total Zone, Outs above average. They're all neutral to positive. This is driven by his better than average fielding percentage for a 2B and his solid to above average range and arm. The sample sizes are too small to really take much from the advanced metrics so just looking at fielding percentage

Gordon .986, Polanco .979.

Aside from that, Gordon's bat has been very valuable this year and well above MLB average at wRC+ 114, OPS+ 114. .275/.318/.428 OPS .746 if you like the more traditional metrics.

All Nick Gordon has done this year is to provide solid defense at a bunch of random positions while bringing a valuable MLB caliber bat to the show. How valuable has he been? Per plate appearance, better than Jorge Polanco, Ron Acuna, Jr., Eduardo Escobar, Javier Baez, Gleyber Torres, Josh Donaldson, Gio Urshela, Bobby Witt, Jr., Jose Miranda, and a whole host of other guys you may know or have heard about. I don't know if Gordon can sustain it, but he's played very well this year. Every bit like a legitimate every day starter on a playoff caliber baseball team.

[TopTwinsFan]

4 hours ago, Squirrel said:

This has been my bugaboo all season. It's not the limit to starting pitching, although that is annoying, it's that they had that plan and then didn't do the one thing that was necessary for that plan to succeed ... have a durable, competent, shut 'em down, BP. That's the flaw in the ointment. It would probably still be annoying to most of us to have pitchers pulled after 4 and 5 innings, but way less so if the BP was able enough to compensate. The error is the FO's to bear.

A horrendous mix of a FO that didnt know how to put a competent bullpen together and a manager who is atrocious at determining how to use his pitching staff. No wonder Wes Johnson would rather coach at the University of Arkansas.

[chpettit19]

1 hour ago, wabene said:

I'm slowly coming around to this, sadly. It is in part because of your excellent posts @chpettit19. The reason it has been so hard for me to give up on this new regime is moving on from the TR experience was so far overdue. I wasn't on board with bringing him on for his second go round and was very excited for change. I liked the revamping of the organization and the idea of a well developed pitching pipeline. Better talent development overall. I'd be inclined to give them one more year with the expectation that something is done about the injury problem and that the bullpen and starters going deeper is prioritized. With the owner's track record I highly doubt they make a move, but if they do it will be a whirlwind off-season.

Yeah, I don't expect any changes because it just isn't really how the Pohlads roll. The reason I'd like to see change is I'm just not at all convinced this regime is up to making the needed changes the owners hopefully are demanding. I expect to see starters going longer next year with a full ST, but things will come up during the season, or offseason even, and this regime just doesn't appear to have the ability to come off their plans and adjust. The injury stuff is super confusing to me and I hope their answer isn't just shrugging their shoulders and saying "it's just bad luck."

[chpettit19]

2 hours ago, KirbyDome89 said:

It's almost certainly the former and the players might be too much of that big voice as well. Like any data point, medical info is all about how you're using it. I'd be shocked if any MD was comfortable/happy with their professional acumen being called into question just to squeeze a few extra weeks out of a clearly injured (insert player here.)  

I'd add bullpen construction to the list of adjustments the FO refuses to make. Their FA signings flopped and the castoffs performed like castoffs last year, but I guess second time was the charm right? Nope, for the second season in a row the pen is a major issue, and worst of all it's probably the easiest thing to fix.   

I'll have to disagree on the pen being the easiest thing to fix. In fact, I'd argue it's the hardest thing to fix. Pen arms are highly volatile and predicting which ones will perform from year to year is incredibly difficult. I'd also argue the Twins have a solid bullpen base going into 2023 with Duran, Lopez, Jax, and Alcala. The Twins problem is their bullpen usage. If you're going with nothing but 1 inning guys you're going to burn them all out before you even get to the stretch run if you're going to stick to 5 inning starts all year. If the Twins were getting/allowing 6 and 7 inning starts every night they'd be able to unleash Duran, Lopez, Jax, Thielbar, and Fulmer in the vast majority of close games since they'd only need 2 or 3 a night. I think they have assembled a talented bullpen right now, but using 4 of those guys in every game is impossible so you get stuck using the Pagan's of the world far too frequently and getting less productive versions of those 5 guys because you're also wearing them all out.

I think they have a decent strategy with the bullpen construction, outside of getting stuck on a guy and refusing to give up on them (Colome, Duffey, Pagan) for far too long. Bullpens are mostly built by having a few guys you expect to be great and then rolling through options until you find the other 4 or 5 guys who are going to be good that year. The Twins just need to be better at managing their bullpen. And that's where I don't trust this FO or manager.

[ashbury]

1 hour ago, bean5302 said:

The sample sizes are too small to really take much from the advanced metrics so just looking at fielding percentage

Defensive stats are inherently cursed by small sample size, compared to the stats for batting and pitching.  Fielding percentage holds no special advantage over other defensive statistics in terms of sample size.

You know it's small sample with batting average, early in the season, when a good day raises someone's BA 50 points.  Even one seeing-eye single can have an impact, when it's SSS.

Well, with Gordon's fielding numbers, if even one attempt of his that got ruled a base hit had happened to be called an error, his fielding PCT would have dropped from above Polanco's to below him.  That makes pretty thin gruel for any sustenance.

[KirbyDome89]

23 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

I'll have to disagree on the pen being the easiest thing to fix. In fact, I'd argue it's the hardest thing to fix. Pen arms are highly volatile and predicting which ones will perform from year to year is incredibly difficult. I'd also argue the Twins have a solid bullpen base going into 2023 with Duran, Lopez, Jax, and Alcala. The Twins problem is their bullpen usage. If you're going with nothing but 1 inning guys you're going to burn them all out before you even get to the stretch run if you're going to stick to 5 inning starts all year. If the Twins were getting/allowing 6 and 7 inning starts every night they'd be able to unleash Duran, Lopez, Jax, Thielbar, and Fulmer in the vast majority of close games since they'd only need 2 or 3 a night. I think they have assembled a talented bullpen right now, but using 4 of those guys in every game is impossible so you get stuck using the Pagan's of the world far too frequently and getting less productive versions of those 5 guys because you're also wearing them all out.

I think they have a decent strategy with the bullpen construction, outside of getting stuck on a guy and refusing to give up on them (Colome, Duffey, Pagan) for far too long. Bullpens are mostly built by having a few guys you expect to be great and then rolling through options until you find the other 4 or 5 guys who are going to be good that year. The Twins just need to be better at managing their bullpen. And that's where I don't trust this FO or manager.

I think it's easier to find multi inning pen arms than starters who can consistently go 6-7 innings. The Twins had the worst bullpen in baseball entering the trade deadline. Golf clap for getting a couple arms but to me that's isn't decent strategy. I'm not near as bullish on Alcala or Lopez either. They've set themselves up for failure with the turn and burn strategy without an actual top end of the pen. 

[Bigfork Twins Guy]

On 9/17/2022 at 3:17 PM, bean5302 said:

You're a bit late to the "complain about Gordon's defense party" even if we include the BS error call from last night.

At 2B, Gordon's stats are universally average or above average. UZR, RF, Total Zone, Outs above average. They're all neutral to positive. This is driven by his better than average fielding percentage for a 2B and his solid to above average range and arm. The sample sizes are too small to really take much from the advanced metrics so just looking at fielding percentage

Gordon .986, Polanco .979.

Aside from that, Gordon's bat has been very valuable this year and well above MLB average at wRC+ 114, OPS+ 114. .275/.318/.428 OPS .746 if you like the more traditional metrics.

All Nick Gordon has done this year is to provide solid defense at a bunch of random positions while bringing a valuable MLB caliber bat to the show. How valuable has he been? Per plate appearance, better than Jorge Polanco, Ron Acuna, Jr., Eduardo Escobar, Javier Baez, Gleyber Torres, Josh Donaldson, Gio Urshela, Bobby Witt, Jr., Jose Miranda, and a whole host of other guys you may know or have heard about. I don't know if Gordon can sustain it, but he's played very well this year. Every bit like a legitimate every day starter on a playoff caliber baseball team.

Thanks for correcting my viewpoint Bean.  I obviously made it based on MY eye test and gut feel.  Your stats correctly assess Gordon's impact.

[bean5302]

1 hour ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

Thanks for correcting my viewpoint Bean.  I obviously made it based on MY eye test and gut feel.  Your stats correctly assess Gordon's impact.

and then Gordon went and played like a high schooler the next game making what should have been a double-error fielding + throw on the same play lol