Twins vs Guardians Preview: A Season-Defining Series

[Matt Braun]

Minnesota playing a crucial late series in Cleveland? Where have I heard that before?

Image courtesy of Jordan Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

Starting tonight at 6:10 PM sharp, the Twins and Guardians will clash in an extended, unusual five-game series that will likely decide the division. Cleveland finds itself in an unexpected situation; a plethora of young talent—especially on the offensive side of the ball—have stepped in a significant way; Steven Kwan, Oscar González, and Andrés Giménez lead a unique contact-oriented offensive revolution, carrying a consistently excellent pitching staff to a healthy division lead.

The Twins' story is more nihilistic; after signing Carlos Correa and trading for Sonny Gray, the team has limped to a 72-70 record, a total that accurately reflects the kind of baseball they have played all season. There have been revelations—Jhoan Duran is a certified face-melter, Jose Miranda is a hitting machine, and Byron Buxton has stayed (mostly) healthy—but injuries and shocking inconsistency have halted the team’s ability to sustain excellent play for more than a few series at a time. Some players will return shortly, but will their impact be enough this late in the season?

The White Sox make this a fascinating three-horse race; Chicago has played equally un-inspiring ball, but a recent stretch of play—perhaps buoyed by manager Tony La Russa’s absence—has set them up for a shot at the AL Central title. José Abreu is up to his old tricks, and Dylan Cease has stepped up to become one of the better starters in the AL, but the rest of the team is a mixed bag, oscillating between meeting expectations and disappointing greatly. The White Sox play the lowly Tigers this weekend.

The series narrative will focus on the starters; Cleveland will call upon two unproven arms to help guide them to success, while the Twins have yet to announce their starters for either doubleheader game on Saturday. Betting against the Guardians’ ability to create pitching out of thin air is a fool's gambit, but the Twins succeeded in 2019 in a similar spot when they started Devin Smeltzer and Lewis Thorpe in a September double game day and walked away with a win in both matches.

Game 1 will be a matchup between Bailey Ober and Triston McKenzie. Ober is starting in the majors for the first time since June 1st; a nasty groin strain has quelled his shot at following a promising rookie season with a full campaign, but he could provide the sort of 5-6 innings stability the team has sorely missed in 2022. McKenzie, on the other hand, has enjoyed a breakout season, riding a lively fastball to a 3.05 ERA over 165 1/3 innings. It’s Cleveland; of course, they have great pitching.

McKenzie will give the Guardians the upper hand, but Ober's steady, habitual 5-6 inning promise could give the Twins the assurance they need to win.

Game 2 will be a battle between TBD and Shane Bieber. TBD possesses good stuff, but he has sometimes failed to reign in his command, leading to an inflated ERA and walk rate; hopefully, he can turn things around soon. Bieber—the 2020 AL Cy Young award winner—has been dominant as usual; a frightening shoulder injury has sapped a few ticks of velocity, but Bieber barely seems to care; his season ERA sits at 2.91. Expect an overwhelming dose of strikeouts in this game.

Bieber is always a tough go; the Twins will be fortunate to win this game, and if they do succeed, it will likely be thanks to a timely extra-base hit or two.

Game 3—the second match in a Saturday doubleheader—will feature TBD facing off against Konnor Pilkington. It’s a bold strategy for the Twins to start TBD in back-to-back games—on the same day, no less—but desperate times call for such measures (the editor would like to note that Josh Winder will start one of the games while Louie Varland will likely start the other). Pilkington is an intriguing lefty, yet another arm in Cleveland’s factory of stuff, an efficient machine producing a seemingly endless array of dominant starters. Pilkington owns a 4.30 ERA over 52 1/3 career innings in the majors, all coming in 2022.

Game three could tilt in the Twins' favor, as Pilkington offers a great chance for Minnesota to jump on an inexperienced arm. Expect a big day from Kyle Garlick.

Game 4 will see Joe Ryan start opposite Cody Morris. Fresh off a cruising yet controversial seven shutout inning start, Ryan will look to build off his excellent performance against the Royals in the most crucial start of his young career. Morris is like Pilkington; a young, talented arm with 9 2/3 innings under his wing working to establish himself in the majors.

This game will be a proper wild card, but Ryan's relative veteran status could give the Twins the edge.

Game 5 — a unique Monday finale — will see Sonny Gray attempt to best Cal Quantrill. Gray has pitched like his usual self in 2022; an efficient, crafty veteran capable of making excellent hitters look foolish as they stare at a sinker down the middle or swing at a curveball that dives when they least expect it. Quantrill is a mystery; a righty sinker/cutter specialist with meh peripherals but a commanding 3.51 season ERA. 

Game five will probably end as the most intense match of the series; both Gray and Quantrill are capable of pitching deep into the ballgame, so expect a a great nervous feel for this Monday matchup.

It’s baseball drama to ever refer to a series as “season-defining,” but the term fits here; the teams will not play each after this series, meaning that an inconclusive result in this series will place AL Central power into the hands of other teams as September winds down. The Twins must win at least three games for their playoff chances to remain firmly in the realm of realism.

 

 

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[ashbury]

Put up or shut up time, for Rocco and his charges.  And vindication time for the FO, if things go their way.

[insagt1]

Agree with all the assessments but one: Buxton has not been 'mostly healthy' this season. Truth will reveal that he has probably played hurt from the beginning. The degree of 'hurt' allowed him to try and stay in the lineup, but clearly  he wasn't playing at his best. His 'd' was blunted. He was not 'allowed' to steal bases. He struck out like he was cloning Sano. And overall his OBP and BA were very unimpressive. In short, he was pulling punches all season. It was pretty sad. We all want this guy to be all he can be. When he isn't afraid of getting injured, he is Mr Excitement. We didn't see much of that Buxton this season and we may never see it. wish it were different..

If he can somehow return...can he be a difference maker? Certainly would absolutely love to see that happen but reality would probably not allow that to occur. But we can hope. Next 5 games will tell us a lot about the 2022 Twins. (or maybe not..perhaps we already know who they are)

Play ball.

[MMMordabito]

Minimum 4-1, or I think it's over.  I actually think it's over, because 4-1 seems very unlikely.

 

[stringer bell]

The odds are long for the Twins. They really need to win at least four of the five games and given their current roster, it is an extremely long shot. Because they are playing the teams ahead of them in the standings, they control their own destiny, but they must dominate two teams they have had trouble beating in the second half of the season. 

[tarheeltwinsfan]

I don't think winning 3 out of the 5 games will be enough. If that happens, the Twinkies will still be 3 games out. I really believe the Twins must win 4 of the 5 games in order to be 1 game behind the Guardians. Twinkies must sweep to be 1 game up on the Guardians. Did I get these numbers correct? However, the Twins just need to look at 1 baseball game at a time. They must win tonight. PERIOD.  Any loss tonight cannot be acceptable. 

[bean5302]

Where have we heard it before? Every single year nobody stepped up in the AL Central... so pretty much every year in recent times.

[Doctor Gast]

I don't think Ober will go more than 4 innings coming off this long hiatus. My hope is Buxton & Polanco will comeback in this series 100% & super charge this offense.

[Trov]

They need to win 3 of 5 to stay in it.  That will not put them in control but at least make the remaining 2 weeks important.  If we win 4 of 5 we will be right back into the mix, and if some how we sweep everyone will be talking about who we will be playing in postseason, despite still being up only 1 on Cleveland and who knows with Chicago. Either way if we lose the series no matter by how much we need to just concede I would say. 

[Dave The Dastardly]

30 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

I don't think Ober will go more than 4 innings coming off this long hiatus. My hope is Buxton & Polanco will comeback in this series 100% & super charge this offense.

Dude, you wanna pass me that doobie?

[chpettit19]

30 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

I don't think Ober will go more than 4 innings coming off this long hiatus. My hope is Buxton & Polanco will comeback in this series 100% & super charge this offense.

Last I saw Buxton was only running in the pool and not doing any sort of baseball type activities. I think there's a 0% chance he plays against Cleveland. And we very well may not see him again at all this year. Polanco, though, is rehabbing in St Paul tonight. I think that's a waste of a day, but hopefully he meets the team in Cleveland this weekend.

[FritzDahmus]

Too much talk about pitching. It is the hitting that put us in this hole. The Twins have not hit in RISP situations, and sometimes not in any situations.

The pitching has been something a good hitting team could easily live with. This team is not a good hitting team.

Too many injuries. 

[Monticore]

"Hope, hope, hope "

- Tim Carey in THE KILLING OF A CHINESE BOOKIE (1976) to gambler Ben Gazzara who owes $150K to the Mob and no way of paying it.

[DocBauer]

Winning 4 is probably optimal. Winning 3 isn't out of the question, but still leaves the Twins behind the 8 ball considering games left to make up and how easy Cleveland's final week is. 

After losing the game tonight, despite a 3-0 lead, the truth is the Twins just don't have enough quality, productive bodies to make a difference offensively. 

The thing I'm really going to potentially miss in 2023...though I hope a Twins winning record will make this negligible...is inter divisional series played in September. While you ALWAYS want your team to walk away with a division win, it's still fun to be facing off against your division rivals to close things out. But MLB, in their continued poor vision, has that possibility all but eliminated next year with their bogus scheduling.

The Twins have to win, at least, 3 of the next 4 to remain in this thing. The odds of doing so are pretty remote. But I'm going to root for them to do so anyway.

As always, GO TWINS!

[USAFChief]

Pretty accurate headline. 

Tonight's debacle pretty clearly defined the season.

Early lead, feels tenuous, offense hibernates, Rocco decides his starter's arm is about to fall off, somebody pulls up lame, mix in an untimely error, ill advised throw or baserunning gaffe, bullpen implodes in the most egregious manner possible. Game over, put one in the L column that really didn't need to be there.

Lather, rinse, repeat.

 

I'm so done with Baldelli. It's not all his fault, but I want someone to blame.

[ashbury]

7 hours ago, ashbury said:

Put up or shut up time, for Rocco and his charges.  And vindication time for the FO, if things go their way.

Still some games to go, and a miracle finish is still possible.  But if I'm upper management, I'm getting ready to demand a Get Well Plan from the baseball operations people, and also a good reason from them why I should let them be the ones to implement it instead of bringing in this other earnest couple of guys from some other front offices to construct their own Get Well Plan.

We're approaching the end of Year 6 of the previous 5-year Get Well Plan.

[Peter]

3-2 just to stay in race. After last night 4-1 won’t happen. If twins lose doubleheader today it’s over. Simple as that!!!

[RonCoomersOPS]

On 9/16/2022 at 9:31 PM, ashbury said:

Still some games to go, and a miracle finish is still possible.  But if I'm upper management, I'm getting ready to demand a Get Well Plan from the baseball operations people, and also a good reason from them why I should let them be the ones to implement it instead of bringing in this other earnest couple of guys from some other front offices to construct their own Get Well Plan.

We're approaching the end of Year 6 of the previous 5-year Get Well Plan.

This FO arrived in 2017. It is currently 2022. I'll leave it to you to accurately calculate which year of the 5-year plan they're in.

I'll also mention, again, that it's worth recognizing just how far behind the times the Twins were when this FO came in. And that this new FO lost a year of minor league player development just as they were really starting to catch up. This FO definitely needs to go through some re-planning exercises this winter and challenge some of their assumptions and practices around player development. However, if their jobs are threatened, or even ended, this winter then the Twins are going to end up with a reputation as a toxic organization and they're never going to be able to bring in better people to steer the baseball side of the business.

[ashbury]

19 minutes ago, RonCoomersOPS said:

This FO arrived in 2017. It is currently 2022. I'll leave it to you to accurately calculate which year of the 5-year plan they're in.

Falvey took over in 2016 after the World Series.  Levine was added in early November that year.  The team they took over was a 103-loss team, doubtless resulting in a Get Well Plan for the new FO, and has been under their watch for these seasons:

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

As I said, we're approaching the end of the 2022 season.  Not sure if you're taking issue with the math, or what.

This FO has brought the team forward.  Not sure they have demonstrated they have any special sauce, though; and Terry Ryan no longer being the right man for the job in 2016 doesn't confer the present group any special standing by now.  There are always qualified candidates who could bring a different vision.  I'm particular concerned about what I view as a reckless attitude toward injury risk that could run this franchise right into the ground.