Can We Rely on Trevor Larnach?

[RpR]

Next spring/early summer will determine Larnach's future, nothing this year matters.

[TwinsDr2021]

On 9/16/2022 at 12:36 PM, wabene said:

Larnach was the best player on a team that won the college world series. A first round draft pick he is probably the reason why the twins noticed Spencer steer who was not the best player on that team. There's no way they're going to move on from him right now.

I am not saying move on from him, but him being a 1st round pick and a college star was 4 years ago. Larnach like just about every Twins prospect has performed enough to keep people excited and not want to trade him, but not enough to decide if he is actually worth a starting spot (Minus Miranda).

[Mike Sixel]

20 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Defensive metrics are worthless in the sample size you're referencing. Larnach's UZR/150 was -6.8 in LF last year across 466 innings. He's +20.7 UZR/150 this year in 247 innings.

Larnach is not a plus defender and he almost certainly never will be. Even with his added step this year, he's still just a tick below average for speed in LF and he doesn't have a strong arm. Maybe... Byron Buxton might be +20.7 UZR/150 across a full season in LF, but I'm willing to wager nobody believes Larnach is a better outfielder than a healthy Byron Buxton.

That's a heck of a straw man. I was refuting the "fact" he was so bad he couldn't play on the majors. No place did I say he was Buxton. 

[bean5302]

On 9/17/2022 at 12:12 PM, Mike Sixel said:

He was one of the highest rated defenders this year before getting hurt. By every site...

 

1 hour ago, Mike Sixel said:

That's a heck of a straw man. I was refuting the "fact" he was so bad he couldn't play on the majors. No place did I say he was Buxton. 

Right. You didn't say Larnach was better than Buxton. You said Larnach was one of the highest rated defenders before getting hurt. Since you didn't provide any "ratings" I had to go get some defensive metrics (which are not of any value for Larnach in the sample size he played). I just grabbed UZR/150, which suggests Larnach is as good as Byron Buxton. The metrics say Larnach is Buxton. We all know he's not and nobody in their right mind would think Larnach could possibly be remotely as good as Buxton as a fielder. But... that's what the metrics say because of SSS error.

It's the same type of thing I run in with Buxton superfans on this site who expect Buxton OPS 1.300 and produce 10 WAR per season. When I point out Buxton isn't he greatest hitter in MLB history, they all complain of the strawman I've created and they never said Buxton was better than everybody in MLB history.

...but you kinda did, even if you don't realize it. 

Anyway. Larnach would maybe be an average left fielder had he been able to play. He'll likely never be a highly rated defender.

[gman]

Buxton maybe the best centerfielder this team has, but I would begin to transition him to playing right field more. As a centerfielder, he is constantly getting injured and has no value sitting on the injured list. A platoon of Celestine and perhaps Wallner, with Celestine playing center when he is in and Buxton moving to right. Is Celestine a better centerfielder than Buxton? NO. But he is better than an injured Buxton. With Wallner playing right when he is in and Buxton center. Maybe, just maybe we could Buxton up to a healthy 80-100 games this way.

Larnach, I think has earned playing time in left. Or at least earned the right to play himself off the team. When he was healthy this year he was hitting in the heart of the order and doing well.

[bighat]

On 9/16/2022 at 1:46 PM, KBJ1 said:

The Correa signing (along with Donaldsons) in the FO desire to make "a splash" have continued to ruin this club.

No knock against Correa, he is a fine player and seemingly good clubhouse leader, but we all knew going in that a starter & 2 or 3 top quality bullpen arms were needed. That 35M would have gone a long way towards filling  that giant hole.

Lewis would now still be playing SS.

Sadly the rest of the injuries would still have sunk us.

Agreed, but could you imagine what this team would have been without Correa for this past month? They'd have been shut out every other day. 

Problem right now is, due to frontline prospect injuries (Larnach, Kirilloff, Lewis) and disappointments (Balacovic, Cavaco, Sabato) the Twins now need to add both hitting and pitching in the offseason. 

And with all the question marks, it looks like they need to add a LOT of both. And they won't be able to do that. 

[IndianaTwin]

On 9/16/2022 at 8:54 AM, bighat said:

I am not. Why should I be? Have the Twins been tearing up the league with that lineup in the past? 

The Twins were winning in 2019 when they had Nelson Cruz, Miguel Sano, and Mitch Garver hitting cranking out 30 HRs in a juiced ball season. They won in 2020 with Josh Donaldson and Kenta Maeda pitching as the staff ace. 

Since the Larnach and Kirilloff were promoted to the MLB squad, they've have been on-and-off the Twins roster for the past two years, up-and-down to St. Paul with both injury and performance issues. And the Twins have been BAD. Sure, both have had a few good games and shown flashes of promise, but they've also both gone through horrendous stretches where they were maybe the easiest outs in MLB - and not for a short stretch! In what fantasy land are you living in that you want Kirilloff and Larnach occupying the 3-4 spots on the batting order for years to come? And you also threw in Kepler there. Egads, no.

The Twins are going to have to go after a free agent (or two) OF like Will Myers, AJ Pollack, Adam Duvall, Jurickson Profar, Tommy Pham, Joc Pederson. All of whom are safer, proven options. Larnach and Kiriloff shouldn't be discarded, but they should have to earn their roster spots, they've already been handed starting jobs and have failed miserably. The stats don't lie. 

Um, I didn’t make any comments about putting Kirilloff, Larnach or Kepler in the 3-4 spots. 

Also, as you mentioned, the stats don’t lie. 

• Myers, 0.5 bWAR, 95 OPS+
• Pollock, 0.3 bWAR, 88 OPS+
• Duvall, -0.2 bWAR, 86 OPS+
• Profar, 2.8 bWAR, 107 OPS+
• Pham, 0.9 bWAR, 92 OPS+
• Pederson, 0.8 bWAR, 135 OPS+

Given that Profar’s career OPS+ is 93 and given that Pederson must be pretty bad on defense to have such a low bWAR despite such a good bWAR, I’m not that interested in any of these.