Mackey: Twins Have Already Won the Liriano Trade

[East Coast Twin]

Phil Mackey has some interesting bits of information in yesterday's column.

 

Before the Twins think about moving red-hot top prospects Miguel Sano and/or Byron Buxton up the minor league ladder, they want to see how those players fare when they see teams and pitchers for the second time -- see how they adjust to adjustments, so to speak.

 

Reports are [Tim Wood's] velocity is between 93-95 mph with a high-80's slider, and he hasn't allowed a run in four outings for Rochester.

 

"I think [Mike Pelfrey will] be fine," Ryan said. "He's one of the best workers, he's got great make-up. I guess I should expect him to struggle a bit out of the chute because of where he's been, but with all that being said there's no reason he shouldn't succeed up here because he's got plenty of stuff."

 

Can Ryan walk into a college game and develop strong opinions on 18 players he has never seen within three hours? "Yes," he said. "That's what you're supposed to do, and if you go into that college game and you can't do that then you need to get out of the business, because you're paid to evaluate and make a decision."

 

http://www.1500espn.com/sportswire/Mackey_The_Twins_have_already_won_the_Francisco_Liriano_trade042913

[nicksaviking]

On Pelfrey:

 

"I think he'll be fine," Ryan said. "He's one of the best workers, he's got great make-up. I guess I should expect him to struggle a bit out of the chute because of where he's been, but with all that being said there's no reason he shouldn't succeed up here because he's got plenty of stuff."

 

What kind of "stuff?" I've seen no "stuff." His K/9 is 2.8, that generally implies no "stuff."

 

I'll give him credit for the Liriano trade, although I don't disagree with my original stance which was that I would have preferred a singular player with more upside that would not need to be added to the 40-man roster.

 

So far so good with Correia, but this bugs me a little bit:

 

• With his fifth straight start of at least seven-plus innings on Sunday, Kevin Correia has already almost doubled his number from last year (three) in Pittsburgh. As someone in the Twins front office pointed out over the weekend, National League pitchers are often pinch-hit for in the later innings, so it's possible many of his six-inning starts were halted because of that.

 

That's some pretty easy recon to get actually. It doesn't have to be just possible, a simple check of his game logs would tell you if it's a fact. Please tell me this team isn't handing out contracts without doing even simple research. It can't be all scouting.

[Boom Boom]

Any cheap fringe player for Liriano would have made it at least a wash of a trade. The Twins had nothing to lose when they dumped him except for his remaining 2012 salary.

[IdahoPilgrim]

On Pelfrey:

 

"I think he'll be fine," Ryan said. "He's one of the best workers, he's got great make-up. I guess I should expect him to struggle a bit out of the chute because of where he's been, but with all that being said there's no reason he shouldn't succeed up here because he's got plenty of stuff."

 

What kind of "stuff?" I've seen no "stuff." His K/9 is 2.8, that generally implies no "stuff."

 

I'll give him credit for the Liriano trade, although I don't disagree with my original stance which was that I would have preferred a singular player with more upside that would not need to be added to the 40-man roster.

 

So far so good with Correia, but this bugs me a little bit:

 

• With his fifth straight start of at least seven-plus innings on Sunday, Kevin Correia has already almost doubled his number from last year (three) in Pittsburgh. As someone in the Twins front office pointed out over the weekend, National League pitchers are often pinch-hit for in the later innings, so it's possible many of his six-inning starts were halted because of that.

 

That's some pretty easy recon to get actually. It doesn't have to be just possible, a simple check of his game logs would tell you if it's a fact. Please tell me this team isn't handing out contracts without doing even simple research. It can't be all scouting.

 

As you wish: This team isn't handing out contracts without doing even simple research.

 

Glad I could help.

[IdahoPilgrim]

Any cheap fringe player for Liriano would have made it at least a wash of a trade. The Twins had nothing to lose when they dumped him except for his remaining 2012 salary.

 

I agree. That's why I couldn't believe the amount of ink wasted last year when people were saying Ryan didn't get enough for Liriano and that we had squandered a 'trade chip.'

[Otto von Ballpark]

I'm pretty sure both Escobar and Hernandez will see significant performance drops soon, but the fact that TR got two cheap, MLB-ready serviceable backups for an enigma like Liriano is pretty impressive. To top it off, he plucked those players from a division rival, no less!

 

The Span and Revere trades look pretty solid too. Trader Terry is back!

[Oxtung]

The Liriano trade is the same now as it was last year. A wash. Chicago took a chance on a pitcher with the potential to go on a 8 game run of absolute dominance. It was a great chance to add potentially ace level pitching but having to give up almost nothing in return.

 

The Twins on the other hand weren't going to resign Liriano or extend an qualifying offer so they got back what they could. A couple of guys who could help the team for a few years was a fair return.

 

So in the end it was a wash.

[SweetOne69]

That's some pretty easy recon to get actually. It doesn't have to be just possible, a simple check of his game logs would tell you if it's a fact. Please tell me this team isn't handing out contracts without doing even simple research. It can't be all scouting.

 

Here is the data for you: Last year with Pittsburgh, Correia pitch 6-7 innings 19 times. Of those 19 he completed the frame 17 times. In the 17 games where he finished the inning, he was PH for in the next inning 10 times. The other 7 times he was just taken out of the game.

 

Also of note of those 17 games he only topped 95 pitches twice (107, 97), was between 90-95 pitches 6 times. Which means that in at least 9 of the games he could've easily gone back out there. There were even 3 instances where he was taken out after tossing less than 80 pitches (78,73,67), but 2 of those had come when he was switching between the BP and rotation.

[amjgt]

You know.... "it's possible"

[cmathewson]

The Liriano trade is the same now as it was last year. A wash. Chicago took a chance on a pitcher with the potential to go on a 8 game run of absolute dominance. It was a great chance to add potentially ace level pitching but having to give up almost nothing in return.

 

The Twins on the other hand weren't going to resign Liriano or extend an qualifying offer so they got back what they could. A couple of guys who could help the team for a few years was a fair return.

 

So in the end it was a wash.

 

I have a hard time seeing how two months of Liriano = six years of Hernandez + Escobar. None of those three is worth all that much on the market, but control alone makes it anything but a wash.

[big dog]

Phil Rogers, Chicago Tribune baseball writer, had an item in his column yesterday about this.

"Liriano made 11 starts for the Sox, with a 5.40 ERA. The Sox were 5-6 in those starts, including a 1-4 September record as their lead in the AL Central disappeared...And it cost the White Sox two players they could use."

 

Your Morning Phil: Liriano, Gregg, Dunn - chicagotribune.com

[old nurse]

The Liriano trade is the same now as it was last year. A wash. Chicago took a chance on a pitcher with the potential to go on a 8 game run of absolute dominance.

The potential to go on a few game run of brilliance by a pitcher goes a long ways with a lot of fans. Phrases of "If only ....." come out about about the pitcher. That was Liriano in 2011 and 2012. The next pitcher for that role with the Twins is Deduno.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I don't know if the White Sox really need Escobar or Hernandez right now -- they seem to be set at those spots on the roster -- but obviously they got very little, probably negative value, out of Liriano. And Escobar and Hernandez have both been small but positive contributors to the Twins so far, which not only helps the Twins but hurts the White Sox in the standings. Definitely advantage Twins.

 

I'm kinda surprised that Liriano fetched two MLB ready contributors, even if neither has much upside. So kudos to Terry Ryan for that. Pavano was a better pitcher back in 2009 and the Twins got him for one fairly marginal minor league arm (Yohan Pino?). I guess Liriano had more theoretical "upside" but he was pretty far removed from that... and Pavano proved to have similar upside in 2010 anyway. (Kudos to Bill Smith on that one, one of his few moves that actually worked out.)

[gil4]

Phil Rogers, Chicago Tribune baseball writer, had an item in his column yesterday about this.

"Liriano made 11 starts for the Sox, with a 5.40 ERA. The Sox were 5-6 in those starts, including a 1-4 September record as their lead in the AL Central disappeared...And it cost the White Sox two players they could use."

 

Your Morning Phil: Liriano, Gregg, Dunn - chicagotribune.com

 

It sounds like the Twins won the trade just by the damage Liriano did to the White Sox. Anything positive Escobar and Hernandez do will just add to that.

[fairweather]

I think Hernanadez can be good. He reminds me of a younger Jason Vargas. Escobar reminds me of Orlando Cabrera. Now it would be a pretty big surprise if Escobar became O-Cab caliber but I like Hernandez's chances of getting better as he seasons with the Twins. After all the Twins have a much better track record developing LHP than they do developing infielders.

[Don't Feed the Greed Guy]

The potential to go on a few game run of brilliance by a pitcher goes a long ways with a lot of fans. Phrases of "If only ....." come out about about the pitcher. That was Liriano in 2011 and 2012. The next pitcher for that role with the Twins is Deduno.

I hope you are right, and the Twins discover that "few game run of brilliance" that Deduno displayed in the WBC. I believe he passed through the waiver wire last winter, and no one took a chance on him. I still hold out hope for that limited stretch of brilliance at best--or perhaps--pinch me--but maybe a servicable back-end-of-the-rotation starter that throws off opposing teams because he looks/pitches so differently than the rest of the Twins starters? If only? I guy can hope...lots of fans do.

[70charger]

It sounds like the Twins won the trade just by the damage Liriano did to the White Sox. Anything positive Escobar and Hernandez do will just add to that.

 

You are correct, sir. In fact, I recall a few times last season where I called Liriano a "Trojan horse." I stand by that statement.

[TheLeviathan]

You are correct, sir. In fact, I recall a few times last season where I called Liriano a "Trojan horse." I stand by that statement.

 

Yeah but Liriano is an ace. Strikeouts > giving up lots of runs in short starts...or so is my understanding.

 

Glad we dumped his sorry butt on the Sox - couldn't happen to a more deserving team.

[Willihammer]

Don't look now but Liriano has destroyed in 4 rehab starts.

[Nick Nelson]

Yeah but Liriano is an ace. Strikeouts > giving up lots of runs in short starts...or so is my understanding.

 

What an obtuse statement.

 

I'd still take Liriano over 3 or 4 members of the Twins' current rotation. Easily.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I'd still take Liriano over 3 or 4 members of the Twins' current rotation. Easily.

You might be right. Liriano was very frustrating the past two years, with a 79 ERA+. But Correia's career mark since switching to starting is 83 (before this season), and 2 of Pelfrey's last 3 full seasons were 78 and 81.

 

The difference is style -- Liriano was posting a 5 BB/9 rate while tanking, the other guys were just giving up hits -- and upside, although I'm pretty receptive to the idea that Liriano wasn't going to reach that upside with the Twins again, for whatever reason.

[TheLeviathan]

What an obtuse statement.

 

I'd still take Liriano over 3 or 4 members of the Twins' current rotation. Easily.

 

Congrats.....to......Liriano?

 

The Liriano defenders have long told us those Ks were bound to make him a top of the rotation pitcher. Reality is that he just isn't very good and is far too unreliable. But if you want to set the bar for good as "better than most of the Twins rotation" then there are a veritable s*** ton of guys that meet that. I guess I'm glad he's gone and would've rather he be replaced by someone not sucky. The obtuseness there is the implication it was either/or Liriano or our current crap. Give me neither.

[cmathewson]

I don't know if the White Sox really need Escobar or Hernandez right now -- they seem to be set at those spots on the roster.

 

I know they could use both players. When the Twins played the Whities, they had a raw second baseman playing, who botched a key play, which led to the winning run. He was some kid who belonged in AA ball from the looks of him. And now with Floyd hurt, they could sure use Hernandez.

[PseudoSABR]

You might be right. Liriano was very frustrating the past two years, with a 79 ERA+. But Correia's career mark since switching to starting is 83 (before this season), and 2 of Pelfrey's last 3 full seasons were 78 and 81.

 

The difference is style -- Liriano was posting a 5 BB/9 rate while tanking, the other guys were just giving up hits -- and upside, although I'm pretty receptive to the idea that Liriano wasn't going to reach that upside with the Twins again, for whatever reason.

Liriano only looks good through the prism of rate stats.

 

In a fantasy world where you'd get 200 innings out of Liriano, sure you'd roll the dice on him than many of the guys the Twins have; but again that's a fantasy world. When judging Liriano you also have to consider the pitchers who are going to make up the innings he's unable to pitch.

[Willihammer]

Not to mention losing Youk and now they're fieldilng the .400 OPSing Keppinger at 3B. The Sox have their own infield problems. I whined about the trade at the time but in hindsight I can see where it was a good move strategically. If only Jr had re-signed Liriano in the offseason the Twins could have had the best of both worlds.

[big dog]

I know they could use both players. When the Twins played the Whities, they had a raw second baseman playing, who botched a key play, which led to the winning run. He was some kid who belonged in AA ball from the looks of him. And now with Floyd hurt, they could sure use Hernandez.

 

The Sox need Escobar because Beckham broke his wrist. I've seen Beckham play a lot, and I don't know why he's playing in front of Escobar anyway.

[Danchat]

What an obtuse statement.

 

I'd still take Liriano over 3 or 4 members of the Twins' current rotation. Easily.

What about the 2.23 ERA Kevin Correia? I'd rather take him over the super-inconsistent Liriano, who could either be a ace one a month or a meltdown once a week. It's also a burden on the bullpen for the games Liriano had to come out after 2 or 3 innings. At least with Correia, he's consistent. Even if he regresses back to his former ERA, he can get around 6 innings a start.

[Nick Nelson]

The Liriano defenders have long told us those Ks were bound to make him a top of the rotation pitcher.

I don't think that's really accurate. More like, his ability to rack up tons of strikeouts is an indicator that he can dominate major-league hitters, which gives him more upside than his overall numbers indicate. When the command isn't there, he's obviously a bad pitcher, but he's been able to harness it at times in the past and I'd rather gamble on that than some junk-tosser who lobs it over the plate and crosses his fingers.

 

I agree with the "give me neither" sentiment but with the Twins that ain't really how it works. You're going to get flawed pitchers so the question is what flaws are you willing to live with.

[TheLeviathan]

I agree with the "give me neither" sentiment but with the Twins that ain't really how it works. You're going to get flawed pitchers so the question is what flaws are you willing to live with.

 

I still think there are other alternatives. Give me Liam Hendricks and Samuel Deduno's flaws over Liriano's any day of the week. We can hopefully develop pitchers with the capacity to strike people out or at least trade for the work of other teams rather than resort to him as an option. I had, and continue to have, zero interest in having him hang on just because some like to be dazzled with what is ultimately a huge tease. (And I get why people are dazzled, Ks are borderline mythic for Twins' fans, but that doesn't make the delusions about Liriano any more credible)

[Joe A. Preusser]

I hope you are right' date=' and the Twins discover that "few game run of brilliance" that Deduno displayed in the WBC. I believe he passed through the waiver wire last winter, and no one took a chance on him. I still hold out hope for that limited stretch of brilliance at best--or perhaps--pinch me--but maybe a servicable back-end-of-the-rotation starter that throws off opposing teams because he looks/pitches so differently than the rest of the Twins starters? If only? I guy can hope...lots of fans do.[/quote']

 

I have similar hopes for Deduno. That guy has some electric, unpredictable stuff!