Minnesota’s Other Breakout Pitching Prospect

[Cody Christie]

Louie Varland is getting a lot of attention this season, especially with his performance in the upper minors. Another pitcher from Varland’s draft class is also putting his name on the prospect map.

Image courtesy of Ed Bailey, Wichita Wind Surge

Twins fans know Louie Varland after his impressive debut at Yankee Stadium. He’s the organization’s reigning minor league pitcher of the year, but he might not have gotten the respect he deserved entering the season. Many Twins rankings didn’t have him in the organization’s top-10, and another prospect may be following his path to the big leagues. 

Drafting and developing pitching is one of the critical strategies for teams to keep their winning window open as long as possible. Varland was a 15th-round pick in 2019, and the Twins have developed him into a legitimate starting pitching prospect. Picks later in the draft can allow for some sneaky value, and Brent Headrick fits that mold. 

The Twins drafted Headrick in the 9th round of the 2019 MLB Draft from Illinois State University. It was tough to know what to expect from Headrick as he posted a 6.40 ERA as a sophomore. Following that season, he headed to the Northwoods Summer League and had a 2.63 ERA with 35 strikeouts in 27 1/3 innings. Some of those positives translated to his junior season, where he posted a 10.8 K/9 with a 1.09 WHIP. Minnesota saw potential and selected him later in the draft. 

Entering the 2021 season, Headrick was limited to three professional appearances because of the missing 2020 campaign. Minnesota sent him to Fort Myers in 2021, where he was over a year older than the average age of the competition at that level. In 15 appearances, he posted a 3.82 ERA with a 12.6 K/9 over 61 1/3 innings. His biggest issue was allowing more than a hit per inning, resulting in a 1.58 WHIP. Luckily, Headrick has made vast improvements in 2022. 

Headrick started the year by dominating at High-A, where he posted a 2.34 ERA with a 0.89 WHIP in 15 starts. He significantly reduced the number of hits per nine from 9.3 H/9 in 2021 to 7.3 H/9 in 2022. Since being promoted to Double-A, his strikeout rate has improved to 12.2 K/9, and he is slightly younger than the competition for the first time in his career.  

Only one Twins prospect has struck out more batters than Headrick this season. Varland has accumulated 146 strikeouts in 126 1/3 innings, while Headrick has 130 strikeouts in 104 1/3 innings. For the season, his 11.2 K/9 is the highest among Twins prospects who have pitched at least 80 innings. Headrick is one of a handful of Twins prospects who will pitch more than 100 innings this season, and he is making the most of his time on the mound. 

Headrick won’t finish the season ranked as highly as Varland, but he is having a standout performance while other top prospects struggle. He should enter next season as one of the team’s top-30 prospects with a chance to prove himself in the upper minors. His ceiling may be a back-end of the rotation starter, but that can provide value to a Twins organization that has recently filled those spots with veterans. Keep your eye on Headrick in 2023 and beyond. 

What are your thoughts on Headricks’ performance so far in 2022? What is his ceiling? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

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[Dman]

I hate to say it but I was kind of waiting for Headrick to fall later in the season.  I also thought the move up might hurt him and it has tainted his ERA and WHIP but the K rate remains very good which bodes well.  Maybe someone else can correct me but I am not aware of him having a plus pitch.  Maybe the slider or change is there now but I don't really know.

He was dominant at High A but he wasn't really young for the level either.  He is a lefty with a good K rate though so a much needed arm in the Twins system.  I would say he an outside chance to start but I see him ending up a reliever myself.  We will soon see how the Twins feel as they have a lot of Rule V 40 man decisions to make this coming year.,

[DJL44]

I was expecting this article to be about Festa.

[RJA]

Nice article. I think he has added some zip to his fastball which is helping him, but he also mentions working on other pitches.  When I have seen him on MiLB TV, he has shown good command, the ability to limit walks and a number of swings and misses.  At 6 ft 6 inches I think his ball gets to the plate quickly like Ober (but not to his extent).  Dman raises a good question about his out pitch, because as he climbs a lot of pitches generating swings and misses tend to get fouled off.  Still a lefty with these numbers might look good in the bullpen even if he lacks the pitches to start.  And, in the bullpen, his velocity would play up.

[roger]

Will second Dman's question.  Will he be added to the 40-man to protect him from the Rule 5.  If not, will he be gone?

[Battle ur tail off]

9th round pick. That is all you have to know. #3-5 starter at best. Great and all, but we need top end guys. Getting value out of late round picks and finding guys in places others don't look is great to keep you close. But until we can identify, draft, and develop guys in the early rounds to be legit studs, this will be the same team over and over and over. So far any pitcher Falvine has drafted high hasn't amounted to anything yet. Heck, they haven't even tried drafting pitchers early for the most part. 

[dex8425]

20 minutes ago, Battle ur tail off said:

9th round pick. That is all you have to know. #3-5 starter at best. Great and all, but we need top end guys. Getting value out of late round picks and finding guys in places others don't look is great to keep you close. But until we can identify, draft, and develop guys in the early rounds to be legit studs, this will be the same team over and over and over. So far any pitcher Falvine has drafted high hasn't amounted to anything yet. Heck, they haven't even tried drafting pitchers early for the most part. 

They need to stop drafting Big ten pitchers, period. Big ten pitchers seldom make it as starters in the MLB, for some unknown reason. 

[HrbieFan]

The kid has a chance! He has the  K numbers needed to be a SP in the bigs

[bean5302]

2 hours ago, DJL44 said:

I was expecting this article to be about Festa.

Festa has been pretty solid after his promotion to A+ this year, but nothing to write home about. His last 5 games have shown decline in the peripherals suggesting major regression is due.

13 G, 79.2 IP, 2.71 ERA, 3.66 FIP, 1.19 WHIP, 8.47 K/9 (23.1%), 3.16 BB/9 (8.6%)

last 5 games

5 G, 24.0 IP, 2.62 ERA, 4.36 FIP, 1.21 WHIP, 7.12 K/9 (19.0%), 3.37 BB/9 (9.0%)

[bean5302]

Headrick is an interesting prospect, but he's given up 40 hits in 39 innings with a 23.4% HR/FB rate at AA. He's been pretty solid on walks and the strikeouts are absolutely elite, but it seems like batters are finding something to really hit hard in his offerings. That said, 39 innings in 9 games is a fairly small sample size... it's also only 4.1 innings per appearance, but it does make sense the Twins wouldn't be pushing his innings too hard this year after so little work over the past couple years.

[FlyingFinn]

25 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

His last 5 games have shown decline in the peripherals suggesting major regression is due.

You apparently didn't hear about Festa's game last night. Hit 101 mph. 6.2 innings when most others go 5 or less. No runs and no walks in a playoff game. He was dominant.

 

1 hour ago, Battle ur tail off said:

9th round pick. That is all you have to know

Not true. Festa was drafted in the 13th round. Can hit 100mph with no walks in a game. 

 

 

Apparently I am on the Festa bandwagon more than anyone on TD. As for Headrick, he will be on the 40 man. Twins traded away two lh starters in Povich and Hajjar. Can't afford to let another get away.

[Mike Sixel]

2 hours ago, Battle ur tail off said:

9th round pick. That is all you have to know. #3-5 starter at best. Great and all, but we need top end guys. Getting value out of late round picks and finding guys in places others don't look is great to keep you close. But until we can identify, draft, and develop guys in the early rounds to be legit studs, this will be the same team over and over and over. So far any pitcher Falvine has drafted high hasn't amounted to anything yet. Heck, they haven't even tried drafting pitchers early for the most part. 

Thanks for coming into this celebration thread and setting us straight. 

For me, this guy is a good story. I hope he realizes his dream. Ymmv, of course.

[Battle ur tail off]

7 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Thanks for coming into this celebration thread and setting us straight. 

For me, this guy is a good story. I hope he realizes his dream. Ymmv, of course.

No problem. Sorry if it bothered ya. I will refrain and probably shouldn't have come in here with this stuff. Just frustrated is all. 

Obviously want to see the kid do well. And want to see someone come through at some point that is a top of the rotation starter, that is all.

[bean5302]

1 hour ago, FlyingFinn said:

You apparently didn't hear about Festa's game last night. Hit 101 mph. 6.2 innings when most others go 5 or less. No runs and no walks in a playoff game. He was dominant...

Yep. Wasn't in the game logs because it was the playoffs rather than the regular season, perhaps. Festa went 6.0 innings, not 6.2, but it was definitely a dominant start only allowing 2 hits and 0 walks with the 10 strikeouts. I stand by what I said in my synopsis, though.

[dogsday]

2 hours ago, Battle ur tail off said:

9th round pick. That is all you have to know. #3-5 starter at best. Great and all, but we need top end guys. Getting value out of late round picks and finding guys in places others don't look is great to keep you close. But until we can identify, draft, and develop guys in the early rounds to be legit studs, this will be the same team over and over and over. So far any pitcher Falvine has drafted high hasn't amounted to anything yet. Heck, they haven't even tried drafting pitchers early for the most part. 

If it was simple it would be great, and easier than it seems to be. A random selection of good pitchers and where they were drafted: First round: Clayton Kershaw, Justin Verlander, Kyle Wright. 3rd Round: Aaron Civale (one position ahead of Griffin Jax.) 4th round: Corey Kluber, Shane Bieber. 6th round: Dylan Cease. 9th round: Tony Gonsolin. 26th round: Shane McClanahan. International Signings: Julio Urias, Framber Valdez, Sandy Alacantara.

There are good pitchers all over the draft rounds as well as pitchers who never make it. And not even to talk about organizational development programs. Front offices that get it right repeatedly look like geniuses, and front offices that get it wrong repeatedly look for other jobs.

[DocBauer]

Glad to see the walk rate stay down and the K rate continue after his promotion. A hit per IP is not bad, nor unusual. However, you'd rather see a hit per at the ML level and not the mild level. That would seem to red flag he may be lacking something in his arsenal to fool batters more frequently vs K rate. Hard to say. Overall, the numbers look pretty good and he's got a chance. Would really like to know what he's throwing and at what velocity these days.

LH and breathing with good K rates means you have to protect him. And if his stuff translates with an uptick to the pen vs the rotation, that's still valuable if starting doesn't work out. 

[Rosterman]

The Twins shall showcase Winder, Ober and, hopefully, Varland this weekend in Cleveland (too bad they couldn't get Varland a couple of innings of throws with St. Paul on Sunday or Tuesday).

One, we get to see how they fare against a farily strong line-up. I imagine the loser of the three will become long-relief in the pen. 

The Twins will have to make two roster moves (Sanchez and Cotton). One coming off the 40-man. Although sicne he is healthy and HAS to be out of rehab time, the Twins have to make a decision on Dobnak and the 40-man.

[DJL44]

7 minutes ago, Rosterman said:

The Twins shall showcase Winder, Ober and, hopefully, Varland this weekend in Cleveland (too bad they couldn't get Varland a couple of innings of throws with St. Paul on Sunday or Tuesday).

One, we get to see how they fare against a farily strong line-up. I imagine the loser of the three will become long-relief in the pen. 

The Twins will have to make two roster moves (Sanchez and Cotton). One coming off the 40-man. Although sicne he is healthy and HAS to be out of rehab time, the Twins have to make a decision on Dobnak and the 40-man.

I am pretty sure Cotton will get cut but we might see Varland go back to AAA for Ober's debut.

[Mike Sixel]

35 minutes ago, Battle ur tail off said:

No problem. Sorry if it bothered ya. I will refrain and probably shouldn't have come in here with this stuff. Just frustrated is all. 

Obviously want to see the kid do well. And want to see someone come through at some point that is a top of the rotation starter, that is all.

I share that frustration. I am trying hard to not mention it in threads like this. 

[Game7-91]

3 hours ago, Rosterman said:

 the Twins have to make a decision on Dobnak and the 40-man.

Looks like they made that decision today, Dobbie is off the 40-man, imagine he will be back in Twins minor league system but you never know, cant imagine Twins would be disappointed if someone else took the contract.