The Twins Are Taking the Long Route to a .500 Record

[Cody Christie]

Minnesota's strong start to the season changed expectations for the 2022 campaign. However, the club might have just taken the long route to return to being a .500 team. 

 

Image courtesy of Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports

 

Baseball's grueling 162-game season is something that sets it apart from the other major sports leagues. A team can play well for a short period, but flaws become evident as a team deals with the up-and-down nature of a long season. Minnesota's flaws showed themselves in the season's second half, but the team might end up where they were supposed to be from the beginning. 

Entering the 2022 season, many projection systems had the Twins pegged to finish around the .500 mark. FanGraphs projected the Twins to finish 82-80, which translated to a second-place finish in the AL Central behind the White Sox. After finishing in last place in 2021, this was quite the jump for a team that didn't make significant upgrades in the offseason. Carlos Correa's signing changed the vibe surrounding the team, but one player can't push a team to playoff contention. 

The Twins early season success changed many fans' expectations for where the team was heading in 2022. Minnesota finished the season's first two months with a 30-21 record (.588 W-L%) as they looked like one of baseball's best teams. Byron Buxton was off to an MVP start, and Luis Arraez seemed to be able to put any ball in play. All the right buttons were being pushed, and it looked like the Twins could walk to the AL Central title. 

June and July didn't go as smoothly for the Twins as the team posted a sub .500 record in both months. Minnesota's bullpen issues became apparent, and injuries started to mount with all parts of the roster. With the trade deadline approaching, the front office had a clear shopping list, with the team needing multiple relievers and a frontline starting pitcher. Luckily, the team could cross all these needs off their list, but not all the moves have panned out as planned. 

Tyler Mahle was the team's biggest tradeline acquisition, and a shoulder injury has limited him to four starts with the Twins. Since being acquired, he has spent more time on the injured list than on the active roster. Jorge Lopez was the best reliever acquired at the deadline as the tea immediately gave him the closer role. In his Twins tenure, he has posted a negative WPA, and Minnesota has moved him to a lower-leverage role. Michael Fulmer has performed the best out of trade deadline acquisitions with a 3.24 ERA with 18 strikeouts in 16 2/3 innings. Minnesota's front office used prospect capital to keep the team in the AL Central race, and mounting injuries have hindered that progress. 

Every team deals with injuries, but few teams have faced the number of injuries the Twins have accrued in 2022. Minnesota has put more players on the injured list than any other American League team. In fact, the Twins can create a competitive roster with the players currently on the injured list. When Minnesota was playing well, the team could hide injuries with solid performances from other players. Now, injuries will be the team's theme for the 2022 season, and those concerns will follow the club throughout the offseason. 

There have been exciting moments for the 2022 Twins with early surprises and some strong performances. However, this team looks more likely to finish the season around .500 with double-digit players on the injured list. In the offseason, there will be time to reevaluate the club's future direction, but for now, the team has taken the long road back to mediocrity. 

Do you think the Twins will finish the season with a .500 record? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

 

 

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[ashbury]

No.

[bighat]

This team won't finish .500, probably 5-8 games below. And we should consider ourselves lucky to have had them even contending for as long as they did.

Hot take: Even without the injuries, the record wouldn't be much different. Larnach & Kirilloff were on pace for a combined 14 HRs and Paddack would what, have a 6-8 record when it was all said and done?

It was never about the injuries, folks, it's just a below average team playing in a terrible division. First half was all just smoke and mirrors, and when it came time to regress to the mean, they regressed like all bad baseball teams do.

[Sean.h]

1 hour ago, bighat said:

This team won't finish .500, probably 5-8 games below. And we should consider ourselves lucky to have had them even contending for as long as they did.

Hot take: Even without the injuries, the record wouldn't be much different. Larnach & Kirilloff were on pace for a combined 14 HRs and Paddack would what, have a 6-8 record when it was all said and done?

It was never about the injuries, folks, it's just a below average team playing in a terrible division. First half was all just smoke and mirrors, and when it came time to regress to the mean, they regressed like all bad baseball teams do.

I doubt your hot take would survive any type of scrutiny.

Look, the Twins played better than I expected in the first third of the season. After that, even if they played .500 ball the rest of the way, they probably would have won the division. Injuries played a big role in preventing that.

[Rosterman]

When you start lining up the Top three starters, the closer, maybe two setup guys, and the line-up. The Twins now die in holding baserunners with pitchers AND catchers. They have nothing after the first two rotation arms, but those aren't top arms. The closer has shown weakness. You may have four other decent relievers, but they can't pitch every otehr day.

The outfield is in shambles. There is no bench. How do you construct this lineup (Garlick leading off, Kepler batting clean-up). Hamilton has added nothong if you can't use.

In September, when you need to play the best baseball ever, playing your worst.

Sigh. Big Sigh.

[LA VIkes Fan]

I predicted 78-84 at the beginning of the season. I’m a little more optimistic now. I say 83-79. 

[bean5302]

Same premise as other articles. Byron Buxton was going to play 162 games and produce 20 WAR. Royce Lewis was going to be a 10 WAR player and supplant Carlos Correa at SS. Trevor Larnach was going to learn how to hit a changeup or slider and transform into a stud. Miguel Sano and Alex Kirilloff were clearly better than Jose Miranda and Luis Arraez (or at least were capable of producing significant positive value for the first time in years) 

Polanco was on the 15 day IL. He's going to be at the edge of qualifying for a championship trophy. It's not like he lost the season...

Winder wasn't expected to be a huge contributor this year, Ober is a #5 rotation arm.

[jkcarew]

Better than could have been expected (or at least better than I expected)…

Miranda, Gordon, Arraez (despite the drop off in 2nd half), Lewis (for a short time).

About as expected…

Starting pitching, Polanco, Buxton (this is what he is, a good, not great, overall player who plays about 100 games), Urshella, Sanchez (this is why the Yankees parted ways).

Worse than expected…

Bullpen (even worse), Kepler, Sano, Kirilloff (for a short time), Jeffers (bad enough that it didn’t hurt much to lose him), Correa (slightly…still the club was infinitely better at the SS position than they were in 2021)

I figured around 500…and they probably finish a little worse than that.

 

[Blyleven2011]

We have a few options in AAA and AA that might be better options  than a few we have on the roster now ....

I don't like excuses and injuries are enormous but when the rookies  replace the injured they become professionals  and need to be ready for the opportunity  ... stop using the dumpster diving method ...

Easier said than done  ...

[Blyleven2011]

Oh I forgot this  ...

I'll be pleasantly surprised if the twins do finish above 500 ....

It was a better season than 2021 but still needs some help and I would start with coaching and ????

[weitz41]

I'm going to guess 82-80 record.

The 1st couple months really raised my hopes for the season and the last couple have been a tough pill to swallow.

On the bright side of things look at where the team is now compared to the same time last season. For example last offseason we needed 3-4 starters just to have a 5 man rotation. After this season we need 1?  

[bean5302]

3 hours ago, weitz41 said:

I'm going to guess 82-80 record.

The 1st couple months really raised my hopes for the season and the last couple have been a tough pill to swallow.

On the bright side of things look at where the team is now compared to the same time last season. For example last offseason we needed 3-4 starters just to have a 5 man rotation. After this season we need 1?  

1. Maeda
2. Gray
3. Mahle
4. Varland
5. Ryan
*Ober
*Winder
*Dobnak
*Smeltzer
**Paddack

*Best suited to bullpen
**Injured to start season

They're all under contract next year. Paddack won't be ready till mid year, but that's 10. We also have Woods-Richardson at AAA. I don't think the Twins need "more" starters and I honestly don't think they need more quality, either. The rotation looks pretty good next year to me with solid depth.

[bighat]

On 9/13/2022 at 1:42 PM, Sean.h said:

I doubt your hot take would survive any type of scrutiny.

Look, the Twins played better than I expected in the first third of the season. After that, even if they played .500 ball the rest of the way, they probably would have won the division. Injuries played a big role in preventing that.

Disagree.

We didn't lose Freddie Freeman and Mookie Betts - we lost a couple of underachieving 30 year-old rookies and a guy who won 7 games and had a 5.03 ERA last year. Who else did we lose? Alcala? Would have been nice to have him I suppose but I'm not sure he'd have bumped Pagan off the roster.  

[weitz41]

21 hours ago, bean5302 said:

1. Maeda
2. Gray
3. Mahle
4. Varland
5. Ryan
*Ober
*Winder
*Dobnak
*Smeltzer
**Paddack

*Best suited to bullpen
**Injured to start season

They're all under contract next year. Paddack won't be ready till mid year, but that's 10. We also have Woods-Richardson at AAA. I don't think the Twins need "more" starters and I honestly don't think they need more quality, either. The rotation looks pretty good next year to me with solid depth.

I don't disagree but there's room for Carlos Rodon or someone like that