In the End, the 2022 Twins Never Stood a Chance

[Swing Batter-Batter]

6 hours ago, TwinsChupacabra said:

Although well written, I cringe at yet another excuse article (while the season is not even over), seemingly to protect the management from blame.  As sports fans always say, every team has injuries.  I guess the main argument made here is that the Twins suffered much more than everyone else.  I don't buy it.

Recently the Twins played against the weakest lineup the Yankees put on the field in my lifetime.  That should have evened the playing field.  But no, as we lost 3 out of 4 and tried to lose the 4th.  

While the list is long, many are mediocre. Some were not expected to be healthy enough to play much.  And some have chronic injuries, so their time away should have been anticipated.  

On top of that, the fact mentioned in a previous comment about the benefits of some of the injuries cannot be overlooked.  Sano is a great example.  I am convinced, had it not been for injury, the Twins would have wasted hundreds of at bats on a player that would simply strike out in most of them. - Not to mention the upgrade they got by his replacements.   The luckiness of a few of these convenient injuries certainly offsets some of the damage purported in the article.

I doubt we'll see a Rocco firing this offseason after this year's debacle, but adding on to last year's last place finish, a case can be made.  Or we can just watch next season play out the same way and write about more excuses.

I want my kids to see a playoff win in their lifetime.  It's obvious that it won't happen under Rocco. 

 

In my opinion, Rocco has mismanaged the pitching staff from day one. Pulling starters too soon, completely wearing out the bullpen before July 5th. Inserting pitchers in the absolute wrong situations. Not ever adjusting to what is actually happening on the field and instead, deferring to "the plan".                                                                                                     I agree with you 100% that, a playoff win will never occur under Rocco and at this point, I doubt we will ever even see a playoff appearance while he is manager.

[chpettit19]

2 hours ago, Hosken Bombo Disco said:

Instead of a simple counting of players (dressed up in beautiful prose), I would like to see an analysis of expected value lost.

I would argue that the Mets have lost more expected contribution between DeGrom and Scherzer’s injuries than that whole group of Twins pitchers combined. Just as @Yawn Gardenhose mentioned, the Twins had gotten to first place without Mahle. I think it’s more accurate to say that Mahle’s injury cost them future value from their farm system and not from their rotation. (Pitching rotations are alive and well across MLB, by the way, after some flirting with the opener/primary model a few years ago.)

It’s also pretty apparent to me that the White Sox have lost more expected value from injury, than the Twins.

Mr Gleeman just wrote about this 2 days ago, actually. Here's a paragraph from his article:

"They’ve placed a league-high 31 players on the injured list for a total of 1,928 days lost, second-most in the AL, including 10 players out at least 100 days. According to Baseball Prospectus, the Twins have lost the league’s second-most Wins Above Replacement due to injuries, a clear link between the days lost and games lost."

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

4 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Mr Gleeman just wrote about this 2 days ago, actually. Here's a paragraph from his article:

"They’ve placed a league-high 31 players on the injured list for a total of 1,928 days lost, second-most in the AL, including 10 players out at least 100 days. According to Baseball Prospectus, the Twins have lost the league’s second-most Wins Above Replacement due to injuries, a clear link between the days lost and games lost."

Maybe, but please quote the relevant part? I’d like to know how much they were expecting from guys like Dobnak and Mahle coming into the season. 

where do other teams stack up? 
 

[Mark G]

6 minutes ago, Squirrel said:

I'd bet that this is not a minority. 

As would I.  Now, my memory has been known to have its slips now and then, but if memory serves me well today, I remember at the beginning of the season there was a general sense that '19 and '20 went well, and that '21 was the anomaly, not the predictor of what was to come.  There was a lot of forgiving the FO and manager for '21, resting on the memory of past wins.  As this season has worn on, the mood has been increasingly more realistic, seeing a trend of roster issues as well as in game management issues.  What started as a majority of folks believing in the abilities of above mentioned folks, has slowly turned toward a belief that maybe changes are needed because we are in a rut; a rut of our own making.  That has become a majority view, possibly, and if we all are feeling that way, the rest of the Twins fans are probably feeling that way as well.  And judging from the attendance, 20th in MLB, JP might want to sit up and take notice as well.  

Change doesn't always mean firing.  Most of the time it means adjustments to the plan, both in the off season and during the season.  The combination of this FO and field management appears to believe if we could just get the right roster to operate the plan, the plan will work; they do not appear to be willing to look at the plan itself.  Something has to change, be it the people or the plan.  But, as I have said before, JP has stopped taking my calls, so I hope he is reading TD.    

[Dman]

3 hours ago, wsnydes said:

Before the season, my biggest concern was the depth of the pitching and production of the younger players.  And I believed that the season would go as the younger players did.  The pitching blew through the depth that they did have, and then some as the injuries kept piling up.  The younger players actually played pretty well, but then they fell to the same injury bug.  

I didn't expect this team to be all that competitive.  I saw it as more of a bridge to next season while getting the next group of prospects MLB experience.  I figured they'd end up with a win total in the upper 70s.  That's probably about where they will end up, but in a much different manner of getting there.  And they were more "competitive" much longer than I expected.  With the lineups that they've had to trot out there, it's pretty obvious why they have faded away.  

The FO and coaching staff deserve some blame, but I don't know how anyone can reasonably expect them to be able to keep the ship upright with so much of the top end talent of the team on the IL.  The medical staff and procedures do really need to get an full evaluation.  Two years in a row with a squad decimated by injuries isn't a fluke anymore.  

I agree with most of this.  I expected the Twins to get their young players experience.  I expected the farm to produce a few more young options for next year as well. I didn't have grand hopes of them being much over or under 500 this year.  I will say when they signed Correa and traded for Paddack coupled with the hot start that my perception did change for a brief moment.  Still this team and especially the bullpen was flawed from the start and given all the injuries I can see why they fell backwards.  The bullpen gave away way too many winnable games.  Even with their bad second half the Twins could still be in the hunt if the pen didn't give up so many games early in the season so often.  Clutch hitting with the bases loaded was another issue for this team.  They had horrible at bats in those situations just mind boggling.

Sorry but I don't have a good vibe for next year either with older pitchers like Gray, Maeda, Mahle, and Paddack they seem likely to break down as the season wears on and the pithing pipeline hasn't produced anything solid yet other than Ryan who they traded for.  This is a flawed team until they can get pitching figured out. 

Unlike some I still like this FO and I don't see Rocco as a problem as managers generally just manage by the numbers these days so I don't think change there changes much of anything.  My only message to the FO is draft pitching, pitching and more pitching.  Take arms early and late.  Trade for good young pitching.  Until this team can match the top teams rotations it will be seasons like this one over and over again.

[garn from vancouver]

what really is the ROI on buxton. really? i love seeing him play but in the end was this contract one the twins should have stayed away from? as for pitching, my lord, it's a pitcher graveyard lately. unlucky injuries are one thing, ones that you see coming down main street is another.

[chpettit19]

11 minutes ago, Hosken Bombo Disco said:

Maybe, but please quote the relevant part? I’d like to know how much they were expecting from guys like Dobnak and Mahle coming into the season. 

where do other teams stack up? 
 

"According to Baseball Prospectus, the Twins have lost the league’s second-most Wins Above Replacement due to injuries"

That is the relevant part. I don't have all the hard data as I'm not a baseball prospectus subscriber. But 2nd in baseball means there's only 1 other team that was hurt more by injuries. Pick whatever team you want to be there. Chicago seems to have been your thought. Either way, a neutral company who couldn't care less about making the Twins look good or bad says they've lost the 2nd most WAR in baseball to injuries this year. Not even counting the Buxton rest days when he wasn't on the IL. That's pretty relevant to this talk about how much the team lost to injuries.

[Karbo]

While I agree that injuries have been a major hurdle to overcome this year, I still think they could have been overcome enough to win this division. The complete failure to build a reliable bullpen and the lack of managing the pen we have are IMO the problem that has the Twins in the position they're in now. Rocco needs to go. Bring in a manager that is better at teaching things like fundamentals. Someone who takes the stat sheet and research to use as a tool, rather than the gospel. Someone with flexability. The FO should also be put on notice!

[chpettit19]

22 minutes ago, Dman said:

I agree with most of this.  I expected the Twins to get their young players experience.  I expected the farm to produce a few more young options for next year as well. I didn't have grand hopes of them being much over or under 500 this year.  I will say when they signed Correa and traded for Paddack coupled with the hot start that my perception did change for a brief moment.  Still this team and especially the bullpen was flawed from the start and given all the injuries I can see why they fell backwards.  The bullpen gave away way too many winnable games.  Even with their bad second half the Twins could still be in the hunt if the pen didn't give up so many games early in the season so often.  Clutch hitting with the bases loaded was another issue for this team.  They had horrible at bats in those situations just mind boggling.

Sorry but I don't have a good vibe for next year either with older pitchers like Gray, Maeda, Mahle, and Paddack they seem likely to break down as the season wears on and the pithing pipeline hasn't produced anything solid yet other than Ryan who they traded for.  This is a flawed team until they can get pitching figured out. 

Unlike some I still like this FO and I don't see Rocco as a problem as managers generally just manage by the numbers these days so I don't think change there changes much of anything.  My only message to the FO is draft pitching, pitching and more pitching.  Take arms early and late.  Trade for good young pitching.  Until this team can match the top teams rotations it will be seasons like this one over and over again.

While I'm generally on board with these thoughts, Mahle is 27 and Paddack is 26, so not exactly old. Certainly have their own very real injury concerns (although I think the Mahle stuff is blown out of proportion. Plenty of people on these boards wanted them to get Montas but he'd also just missed time with a shoulder issue), but they aren't old. So there should be real hope for Mahle since he hadn't had any other injury problems other than a hamstring back in 2019. Paddack is a wild card coming back from TJ 2.

[GNess]

I won't comment on the FO decision-making process, their collective expertise or such as I am not aware of their deliberations, and I don't have any real inside information.

However, their results are fair game and to be honest the results are mixed and mediocre overall. Not sure if that demands an immediate changing of the FO and Rocco, but it is cause for a complete examination on behalf of ownership as to the direction the FO and Rocco have taken the Twins.

 

 

[Dman]

4 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

While I'm generally on board with these thoughts, Mahle is 27 and Paddack is 26, so not exactly old. Certainly have their own very real injury concerns (although I think the Mahle stuff is blown out of proportion. Plenty of people on these boards wanted them to get Montas but he'd also just missed time with a shoulder issue), but they aren't old. So there should be real hope for Mahle since he hadn't had any other injury problems other than a hamstring back in 2019. Paddack is a wild card coming back from TJ 2.

Yeah I should have included injury concerns in there.  They are not old as you stated.

[Nick Nelson]

7 hours ago, TwinsChupacabra said:

Although well written, I cringe at yet another excuse article (while the season is not even over), seemingly to protect the management from blame.  As sports fans always say, every team has injuries.  I guess the main argument made here is that the Twins suffered much more than everyone else.  I don't buy it

 

Well it's a fact, whether you want to buy it or not. Compared to almost every other team in baseball the Twins have lost more players/days to the injured list and also more projected WAR. They have factually been decimated by injuries. I don't know how you can look at the side-by-side comparison of their IL compared to Cleveland and say the Twins haven't suffered more from injuries, it defies logic. 

[Nick Nelson]

4 hours ago, KirbyDome89 said:

Definitely not much of a case for holding that group accountable. Zero chance any of that has contributed to this being a sub .500 teams for the last 4 months right? The above poster is correct, this is high level cringe....

You must have missed this part of the post, which was in the second paragraph, so I'll type it out in all caps again for ya: "THIS DOESN'T ABSOLVE THE COACHING STAFF OR FRONT OFFICE OF ANY CULPABILITY." There will be plenty of time for you to rant about everything that went wrong and how you saw it all coming. This post is intended to center on the injuries, which are undeniably a massive part of this being a sub-.500 team for the last 4 months. I would say the most significant part, you might disagree. But undeniably a massive part.

The front office built a team capable of winning the division, coming off a last-place finish. It was on its way. Even with all the bad decisions and missteps you cited, is there really any doubt they'd still be in front of Cleveland if even half of the players currently on the injured list were available? I personally don't think so.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

51 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

"According to Baseball Prospectus, the Twins have lost the league’s second-most Wins Above Replacement due to injuries"

That is the relevant part. I don't have all the hard data as I'm not a baseball prospectus subscriber. But 2nd in baseball means there's only 1 other team that was hurt more by injuries. Pick whatever team you want to be there. Chicago seems to have been your thought. Either way, a neutral company who couldn't care less about making the Twins look good or bad says they've lost the 2nd most WAR in baseball to injuries this year. Not even counting the Buxton rest days when he wasn't on the IL. That's pretty relevant to this talk about how much the team lost to injuries.

If the data supports Gleeman’s arguments, he would provide it I assume. 

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

38 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

While I'm generally on board with these thoughts, Mahle is 27 and Paddack is 26, so not exactly old. Certainly have their own very real injury concerns (although I think the Mahle stuff is blown out of proportion. Plenty of people on these boards wanted them to get Montas but he'd also just missed time with a shoulder issue), but they aren't old. So there should be real hope for Mahle since he hadn't had any other injury problems other than a hamstring back in 2019. Paddack is a wild card coming back from TJ 2.

Mahle is not old, but he’s a free agent after 2023.

Is he an extension candidate to you?

[chpettit19]

4 minutes ago, Hosken Bombo Disco said:

If the data supports Gleeman’s arguments, he would provide it I assume. 

He literally quoted Baseball Prospectus' data. I don't understand what you're asking for. He went on Baseball Prospectus and looked up their list of WAR lost due to injury. Filtered it by the highest WAR to the lowest. The 2nd name on that list was the Minnesota Twins. I don't get why you think he needs to put the chart itself in his article. His articles would get awfully long if he put every chart he used in it. I don't get how you can suggest literally quoting the site is him not providing the data. He didn't make up the stat and put Baseball Prospectus' name on it.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

14 minutes ago, Nick Nelson said:

projected WAR

That’s what I am looking for. I’m not saying the Twins haven’t been decimated by injuries. But I am asking how much contribution they expected from Maeda, Dobnak, etc., in 2022.

It’s too easy to say “lost two pitchers for the whole year.” Dobnak is currently pitching in AAA by the way so he could be called up at any time.

[chpettit19]

1 minute ago, Hosken Bombo Disco said:

Mahle is not old, but he’s a free agent after 2023.

Is he an extension candidate to you?

Yes. Based on the FO and how they seem to do things, I don't know if he's an extension candidate to them based on contract demands, but I'd try to extend him assuming the shoulder issue isn't something structural. And at this point it's hard to trust the team medical people on that. But he's hit the IL twice in 6 MLB seasons so I don't think the injury concern is too high. And I think he's a solid #2, great #3 if your rotation is really good. So I'd extend him.

[Nick Nelson]

1 hour ago, USAFChief said:

Some very well written responses above, to a very questionable premise. (Shout out to Mark G and Yawn G, and slow handclap to Kirbydome, for completely gutting this article.)

I'll just add a couple things: 

- you can't separate all injuries from the front office/manager. Nick's article lists Kiriloff as both an unforeseeable tragedy and "a problem thats been plaguing him for years, sapping him of his most important skill." Huh? It wasn't possible to plan for something known for years? We can't consider whether the stupid "100 game plan" for Buxton was a proper response to his knee injury in April? Of course you have to include "how'd we get there" to any article about injuries. 

- I'd argue if Royce Lewis is listed 1st, as your most impactful injury, you're in pretty good shape. Lewis was a bust coming into the season and not expected to have much if any impact. 

1) Typically when a guy undergoes serious season-ending surgery to address a long-standing issue, it resolves it, rather than doing nothing and requiring a more invasive surgery a year later. You're telling me they should have seen this coming? How do you plan around this turn of events with the best young hitter in your organization? You can't just go find another Alex Kirilloff to replace him. 

2) Maybe some people considered Lewis a "bust" or "not expected to have much impact." Others knew better and weren't shy about saying so. He's a franchise player. I'm not sure how you could've watched what he did in Triple-A and briefly in the majors this year and not recognize the massive difference-making role he would've played.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

1 minute ago, chpettit19 said:

He literally quoted Baseball Prospectus' data. I don't understand what you're asking for. He went on Baseball Prospectus and looked up their list of WAR lost due to injury. Filtered it by the highest WAR to the lowest. The 2nd name on that list was the Minnesota Twins. I don't get why you think he needs to put the chart itself in his article. His articles would get awfully long if he put every chart he used in it. I don't get how you can suggest literally quoting the site is him not providing the data. He didn't make up the stat and put Baseball Prospectus' name on it.

You know what I’m asking for. 

Let’s see the list and the totals. I am not disputing injury days, but how much expected value was lost. How much was expected from Maeda and Dobnak in 2022, for example. Once we have that information, we can begin an honest conversation about this. Injury days isn’t enough, in my opinion. 

[Rosterman]

In July the Twins were 10 games above .500 in a division that you could probably win with 85 victories. It actually looked like only one team MIGHT finish above .500. Strange when you play so many games within the division. (Stranger so in the East where all but one have a winning record).

The Twins lacked a #1 starter. The rotation got out-of-whack so Ryan wasn't facing the best. But didn't matter. Getting the guys to 30 starts and pushing towards 150 innings for the year was the desire. Which is prep for the NEXT season, not to be competitive this season. Always felt the Twins would burn thru an Ober and Ryan and need to reinforce with, say, a Balazovic and Sands coming in to backend the rotation. In the end, like getting a full season of work out of the staff better.

Cave was sitting in St. Paul drawing a major league salary. Umpteen players are on the disabled list, also drawing major league salary and service time. Celestino needed to play at AAA a tad more. The outfield was truly broken.

I never considered Lewis a given for 2023. He got his feet wet, and than the Twins - in a need to play someone anywhere but where they may be best to play - broke him.

The Twins have Lopez, Duran, Moran, Jax and Thielbar doing well. But they can't pitch every other day. Moran is a lefty (as is Caleb) who can face multiple batters - a plus going into 2023. All those AAAA signings stashed at St. Paul to cycle thru in a spot or two ended up just being more and more of Cotton and Minaya, both released how many times and not able to find work elsewhere.

I'm most disappointed in the marketing of the team. Pushed to break 22,000 fans regularly in a gorgeous outdoor stadium, with lots of your players, close games, and all. Maybe it was the lack of vendors!

P.S. In the end, the Twins couldn't defeat one of the weakest Yankee lineups ever. Go figure! Home runs, lots of stolen bases!

 

[Nick Nelson]

3 minutes ago, Hosken Bombo Disco said:

That’s what I am looking for. I’m not saying the Twins haven’t been decimated by injuries. But I am asking how much contribution they expected from Maeda, Dobnak, etc., in 2022.

It’s too easy to say “lost two pitchers for the whole year.” Dobnak is currently pitching in AAA by the way so he could be called up at any time.

It was explicitly stated that nothing was expected from Maeda or Dobnak this year and that's why they were throw-ins at the bottom of the list. Why use them as your examples?

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

3 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Yes. Based on the FO and how they seem to do things, I don't know if he's an extension candidate to them based on contract demands, but I'd try to extend him assuming the shoulder issue isn't something structural. And at this point it's hard to trust the team medical people on that. But he's hit the IL twice in 6 MLB seasons so I don't think the injury concern is too high. And I think he's a solid #2, great #3 if your rotation is really good. So I'd extend him.

If Mahle needs surgery, all bets are off, and we lose his 2023 season and he becomes a guy trying to hitch on to a team as a free agent for 2024. Worth the risk? 

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

4 minutes ago, Nick Nelson said:

It was explicitly stated that nothing was expected from Maeda or Dobnak this year and that's why they were throw-ins at the bottom of the list. Why use them as your examples?

I am using them because other people are using them in their injury day count. 

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

For the record, I would not be surprised to see the Twins appear in the top six or eight of MLB teams in projected value lost to injury, however one chooses to measure that. 

[rv78]

I think one thing that has to be mentioned is the fact that, despite all of the injuries that have contributed to the losses this team has endured this year, the team still could have won more games with proper play and management. I know the data isn't anywhere to be found because it just isn't there, but if most, not saying all, the misplays and poor management decisions were removed how many more wins would this club have with all the injuries they incurred? I'd be willing to say at least 5 and maybe as much as 10. And they are how many games out of 1st place?

[chpettit19]

5 minutes ago, Hosken Bombo Disco said:

If Mahle needs surgery, all bets are off, and we lose his 2023 season and he becomes a guy trying to hitch on to a team as a free agent for 2024. Worth the risk? 

Again, if the shoulder issue is not structural then I extend him. Not structural would imply that no surgery is needed. I'm not a doctor and haven't seen his medical records so I don't know the extent of his shoulder problem.

[chpettit19]

10 minutes ago, Hosken Bombo Disco said:

You know what I’m asking for. 

Let’s see the list and the totals. I am not disputing injury days, but how much expected value was lost. How much was expected from Maeda and Dobnak in 2022, for example. Once we have that information, we can begin an honest conversation about this. Injury days isn’t enough, in my opinion. 

And I told you I don't have that because I'm not a baseball prospectus subscriber, and there's no reason for Gleeman to post entire data sets in his articles. What reason do you have to not believe baseball prospectus? Either you think Gleeman is lying about what baseball prospectus' chart said, or you think baseball prospectus is using some sort of bad data that would artificially boost the Twins numbers. Do you have a reason not to trust the BP WAR calculations beyond you just not agreeing that the Twins should be 2nd on that list?

[Nick Nelson]

6 minutes ago, rv78 said:

I think one thing that has to be mentioned is the fact that, despite all of the injuries that have contributed to the losses this team has endured this year, the team still could have won more games with proper play and management. I know the data isn't anywhere to be found because it just isn't there, but if most, not saying all, the misplays and poor management decisions were removed how many more wins would this club have with all the injuries they incurred? I'd be willing to say at least 5 and maybe as much as 10. And they are how many games out of 1st place?

I think then problem with this analysis is that it doesn't account for good management decisions and smart calls that led to victories. It's very one-sided hindsight analysis.

Everyone wants to talk about how going to Pagan against Cleveland lost them games. No one wants to talk about how many games the Twins won because Rocco removed a starter before he imploded, or pulled the right bullpen strings. No one wants to talk about how many games they've won because of Jhoan Duran, one of the best rookie relievers in franchise history that this FO targeted, acquired, developed, and unleashed. There were a lot of things done right to generate meaningful improvement this year. With truly incompetent oversight it could've been a lot worse. IMO.

[awmonahan]

We can definitely blame injuries as a major problem this year. BUT, the FO looks to have made a point of drafting and trading for pitchers that could be labeled as high risk for injuries, or in some cases, already injured. And that is before digging into the Buxton injury matter. All are high profile gambles on guys with injuries. Going woe is me over injuries to guys like Paddack, Mahle, Canterino, and Buxton is disingenuous. 

All that being said, the 2019 Nationals had a similar approach and won the lottery in getting full, healthy seasons from guys like Strasburg and Rendon. The difference is in ability. The FO is taking on huge risk for guys that are not even All Stars.