In the End, the 2022 Twins Never Stood a Chance

[Nick Nelson]

As we pick up the pieces on this 2022 Twins season, which looked so promising for so long, there will be plenty of hindsight analysis, parsing of blame. But it's all overshadowed by the ugly elephant in the room: a catastrophic, unrelenting onslaught of injuries.

The reality is that, while this doesn't absolve the coaching staff or front office of any culpability, there was no preparing for this. No team could have survived the almost incomprehensible level of soul-crushing attrition the Twins faced this year.

Image courtesy of Jeffrey Becker, USA Today Sports

The purpose of this article is try and lay out, in no uncertain terms, the insurmountable magnitude of injuries and medical odysseys to which this year's Twins roster has been subjected. There are worthwhile conversations to be had about the way this team is managing players physically, evaluating new acquisitions, and handling rehab plans. But let's take a step back. 

When you acknowledge that, to a large degree, injury rates and recoveries are driven by luck and uncontrollable forces, I don't see much of a case for holding the manager or even the front office primarily accountable for what's gone down this season. 

There's no planning for, or adapting, to the way injuries have impacted this roster. There's no managing a bunch of backups and fourth-string options to sustained contention. 

I recognize this is very unsatisfying for those who demand accountability and want to see heads roll in the wake of such a disappointing turn of events. But when you remove emotion and try to see the situation objectively, I'm not sure how much more you could expect from the execs and decision makers dealt an unwinnable hand. 

Could they have done certain things better? Of course. Was it going to turn the unstoppable tide that has plunged this ship asunder? No.

This side-by-side comparison of the injured lists for Cleveland and Minnesota, here in the heart of the stretch run, kind of says it all. Sixteen Twins players on IL, including several vital cornerstones, compared to three Guardians. How do you realistically overcome that?

Let's review all these injuries that have torpedoed a promising season, and the context behind them. I've tried to order them from most devastating to least. 

Royce Lewis and Alex Kirilloff.

When people talk about the 2022 season and what's gone wrong, I feel like this calamity gets glossed over way too much. To me, it is the '1A' headline for all the team's unmet potential. This horrible twist of fate is what I would categorize as unthinkably disastrous.

Lewis and Kirilloff are two of the most important assets for this franchise. (I ranked them #3 and #4 during the offseason, behind Byron Buxton and Jorge Polanco – also both currently on IL.) They are at the ages and junctures of development where you'd expect them to start making a real impact the major-league level, and both showed that ability in brief flashes this year.

However, both of their seasons were ended in premature fashion. And in BOTH cases, major surgery was required to address the SAME injury that knocked them out for the previous season. (Did I mention this is essentially the third straight lost season for both?)

Kirilloff's wrist surgery from last year didn't take, so now he's undergone a more invasive, last-ditch operation to try and alleviate the debilitating issue. Lewis, during his first game back in what appeared to be a permanent call-up, tore the very same ACL he had reconstructive surgery on last year.

You can't make this stuff up. And what's most crushing about it all is that both of these absolutely critical players will inevitably be shrouded in doubt going forward. 

Can Lewis rebound from a second straight surgery on the same knee, especially when his game is founded on agility and foot speed? 

Will this somewhat experimental surgery for Kirilloff correct a problem that's been plaguing him for years now, sapping his most elite skill? 

Realistically, it's hard to feel much assurance on either front, and for that reason it's hard to feel optimistic about the Twins' immediate future. It really can't be overstated how disruptive these unforeseeable developments are for a front office trying to build a championship.

Tyler Mahle and Chris Paddack.

We all understand that Mahle and Paddack came with known injury risk to varying degrees. At the same time, so do a lot of trades. You've got to believe a club carefully reviews medicals and gains a level of comfort before pulling the trigger on significant deals like these ones. Yeah, it's easy to scream "incompetence" in hindsight. Too easy. There are a lot of top-of-field experts involved in these decisions.

Maybe, taking each player on his own, it shouldn't be all that surprising that Mahle or Paddack succumbed to (likely) season-ending arm injuries. 

But for both to do so? And not only that, but for it happen SO quickly in both cases? Paddack made it to his fifth start before his partially torn UCL gave way, requiring elbow surgery. Mahle lasted only three before his velocity nosedived and a mysterious shoulder injury threatened to end his campaign.

A combination of worst-case injury scenarios. Of course. And it really hurts, because the talent evaluation in both cases was sound. I genuinely believe that if healthy these would be the Twins' two best starters. Alas, much like Lewis and Kirilloff, their uncertain futures complicate the front office's planning going forward.

Paddack will be coming back from a second Tommy John surgery. Who knows what's going on with Mahle but it seems impossible we'll go into the offseason feeling confident about his shoulder, with one year of team control left.

Byron Buxton.

Look, we know injuries for Buxton have to be expected and accounted for. They're baked into his legacy, and his new contract. Still, this year the gravity of his durability issues came into sharper focus than ever, primarily because it constitutes a "healthy" season for Buxton. 

He's already made the second-most plate appearances of his career. He avoided the injured list until August. He still might get to 100 games!

And yet, that old injury phantom has conspicuously followed Buxton all year, ever since he came up slamming his hand into the dirt at Fenway one week in. Despite his mightiest efforts, he couldn't outrun his eternal tormentor, and now this season is wrapping up like so many before it: Buxton on the sidelines, watching his team fall short. 

I guess the point of this blurb is not so much about the micro misfortune of injuries sabotaging another year for Buxton, but more an observation about his appropriateness as face of the franchise: 

The Twins to lost their way into drafting one of the most talented, electric, special players in modern baseball history who also happens to be the (?) single-most injury prone at that level.

Ryan Jeffers and Trevor Larnach.

I group these two together because while neither injury was totally unforeseeable – catchers get hurt a lot by nature, and Larnach was also sidelined for much of last year – they definitely qualify as bad luck, and both absences led to huge drop-offs in terms of backup plans.

Jeffers was having a reasonably solid season before suffering a thumb fracture in mid-July, which may cost him his entire second half. Larnach developed a sports hernia requiring surgery in mid-June, and still hasn't made it back yet. In both cases, the path to returning has arduously dragged well beyond original estimates, and continues to do so – another unfortunate commonality.

With Jeffers sidelined, the Twins were left at catcher with the husk of Gary Sánchez and trade acquisition Sandy León, who'd been toiling in the minors for Cleveland. It's been ugly, much like the outfield in the absence of Larnach, Kirilloff and Buxton.

Bailey Ober and Josh Winder.

Winder is no longer on the injured list, but I view him much as the same as Ober: a homegrown talent, 25 years old and coming off a great season, clearly a core part of the Twins pitching plans. Granted, they both had their own warning labels coming into this season, but no clear red flags. 

As it turns out, both will end up maxing out around 50 innings pitched in the majors – big setback seasons for developing pitchers who will now be challenged to rebuild their workloads once again. In each case, the injury seems not well understood. Ober went down with a groin injury first framed as minor that never seemed to heal. Winder's had recurring bouts with an impinged, but structurally sound, shoulder dating back to last year.

On their own, these are losses you could withstand, which is why they're relatively low on this list. But combined with all of the above? Getting almost nothing from Ober, or Winder, or Paddack, or their marquee deadline acquisition Mahle? How do you cobble together a decent rotation through all of that?

The only Twins starting pitchers that have truly managed to stay healthy are the guys they signed cheaply to fill the fourth and fifth spots in the rotation. 

Jorgé Alcala and Matt Canterino.

These two are lumped as high-upside relievers who could have had transformative impacts on the Twins bullpen, but instead fell victim to essentially worst-case scenarios with their elbows. Alcala missed all of this season; Canterino never made it to the majors and will likely miss all of the next one.

Maybe these blows would've been easier to sustain if some of the relief contingency plans held up. However...

Danny Coulombe, Cody Stashak, and Jhon Romero.

None of these three were projected to be pivotal late-inning weapons, but they were all viewed as important parts of the depth mix. Coulombe and Romero were on the Opening Day roster, and Stashak a late cut. All suffered season-ending injuries early on. 

Kenta Maeda and Randy Dobnak.

I have these two at the bottom because, unlike everyone above, no one realistically expected much out of them this year. But it would have been nice to get something, *anything* from either. Both have been derailed so much for both that it's easy to forget that, coming out of the 2020 season, we were envisioning each as key long-term pieces for the pitching staff.

You can look back now and say, "Well the front office shouldn't have been planning around these guys." Or they shouldn't have traded for Paddack or Mahle and the associated risk. Or they shouldn't have committed to Buxton as a centerpiece, or they should have better medical personnel and training philosophies, and so on.

There may be truth to these things. But you bet on players you like, and you accept a certain amount of risk. Otherwise, you end up where the previous front office was for so long, treading water in a pointless middle ground.

At the end of the day, injuries happen. They're never as predictable or controllable or correctable as people want to believe. Sadly, this scourge has been especially prevalent for the Twins and, more sadly, a lot of these health woes are going to carry forward in terms of their implications.

I firmly believe the front office built a team capable of winning the division this year, and Rocco Baldelli was the guy to lead that group. For a while, it was all coming together as planned. 

Unfortunately, the current team barely resembles what was built.

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[Mark G]

I guess my main concern is that out of the 16 players listed, 9 of them are pitchers.  And this is not the first year we have had the same problem, maybe not the same number, but the same problem.  The FO was brought here because of their past history of producing a pitching pipe line in their previous places, or so I have read, and yet the only pipe line we have seen is a line waiting to get into the trainers room.  It has been on going for a while now, going all the way down the organizational line.  The worst part, in the opinion of this humble observer, is how many of the injuries have come simply from playing.  injuring yourself simply by throwing a pitch, or running the bases, or sliding into bases, etc.  We are not being beaned, or are crashing into walls every other game, or even having weird accidents like you read about now and then.  We are getting injured just playing.  Especially our pitchers.  Why?  With all the pitch count and innings limits we impose on our prospects, why can't we stay healthy?  And we all know about the pitchers we have picked up from without and the injuries with them.  What is it about this organization that ends up with this kind of a list way too often?  Is it really just bad luck?  Really?  Or do we need to take a step back and review our approach?  I don't have those answers, but we need to find someone who does.  And soon, like yesterday.  

[tony&rodney]

Because Maeda is really the only guy likely to be healthy next year, does tomorrow's article get titled "From the beginning the 2023 Twins never stand a chance?"

Now I don't mean that in any negative manner (it does sound bad) because I like your articles. It just seems like the Twins are more reactive than proactive. In 2019 Manfred and a very weak AL Central gifted a flawed yet exciting team a path. The Twins had multiple options to address their weaknesses and chose to reboot. I liked that the team won but the manner was flawed from strategy to player personnel. I'm not going to quit on the Twins but having been a fan since the beginning (1961), the poor fundamentals are a sour point for me as it has been with other teams through the years. Perhaps Varland, SWR, Lewis, Lee, and Wallner (DH) can bring something to the team in 2023, but it does seem like there is a pile of players who are going to find themselves too often on the IL again instead of in the lineup. I hope I'm wrong, I really do. From last November it seemed like this was the year but so much went wrong. I agree the injuries were horrendous but the planning and player acquisition along with the continued failure to care about fundamental baseball hurt the team even more. 

[Yawn Gardenhose]

On July 5th, the Twins were 10 games over .500 and had a 4.5 game lead on the division. At that time, 11 of these 16 injured players were on the injured list then and most had been shelved for the majority of the season at that point - only Larnach's injury occurred recently to that July 5th date. And of the players whose injuries occurred after 7/5, one was Mahle who was still a Cincinnati Red at this time.

Injuries have hit them hard, but I think it's mostly quantity than quality. The most impactful injuries are the latest two - Buxton and Polanco. You could argue that some of the injuries have benefited the Twins too. If Sano doesn't get hurt, Arraez might not have taken off to the extent he did, and it's possible that Miranda doesn't get as long of a look without the opportunity that was created for him. And it's hard for me to put too much stock into Lewis's injury from a "how it affected the 2022 Minnesota Twins" standpoint, as he wasn't expected to be a major contributor to the big-league club this year anyway, particularly after they signed Correa (his injury is much more concerning from a development/big-picture organizational standpoint). 

The injuries in total are definitely a factor in the collapse, but more importantly I think they've helped to expose some glaring flaws with this organization's philosophy and approach on several fronts. Acknowledging and correcting those flaws will make this season not totally for naught as good organizations adapt and learn from mistakes. Unfortunately I don't think this organization is in the hands of people that are terribly good at identifying their mistakes much less righting them. I hope I'm wrong. 

[Nashvilletwin]

Apologies upfront if this post may be TLDR for many.

Nick, this a well written post that describes in great detail the enormous hurdles that injuries put in front of this team. Thank you.

Your post raises two questions for me.  The first, were these enormous hurdles in fact insurmountable? The second, what does this mean in terms of the future leadership of the team?

There are many, and it appears you are in this camp, that would answer yes to the first.  There are many other TDers, perhaps the minority, who are tremendously sympathetic with the argument, but cannot out of hand dismiss the managerial, player and front office blunders that certainly contributed to many victories being left on the table.  But, IMHO, the question is moot from a “blame” standpoint; we are where we are and what matters is where we go from here.

The Twins are a well-positioned mid market organization. We have excellent owners, facilities, farm system, and tradition. We have access to capital, albeit not unlimited, to acquire the occasional high priced FA player.  We have a tremendous roster of young, up-and-coming players. So, specifically, what does it take for a mid market organization such as ours to consistently and realistically compete with the big market teams and the smart/shrewd/well-run small-mid market teams for the Pennant. Here are a few thoughts re the criteria:

1. Consistent development of big leaguers through the system.
2. FO excellence in trades, FA acquisitions, and player retention.
3, Strong fundamental baseball from players and coaches in all aspects of the game.
4. Maximizing the potential of the players who make it to the Show.  
5. Health - keeping the players on the field (and it’s all not just luck).
6. Team culture of confidence, camaraderie, accountability and commitment.

The small-mid market teams that do these things well will be the ones competing for championships against the larger market clubs.  If you don’t do these things well, teams like the Twins will be destined for mediocrity.

So to address the second question, perhaps it makes sense to open-mindedly evaluate how our FO and coaching staff have performed, and realistically could be expected to perform, in these areas. Perhaps other than the first, one could argue that the Twins owners should seek substantive improvement from existing or new leadership if these are truly criteria for success.

[TwinsChupacabra]

Although well written, I cringe at yet another excuse article (while the season is not even over), seemingly to protect the management from blame.  As sports fans always say, every team has injuries.  I guess the main argument made here is that the Twins suffered much more than everyone else.  I don't buy it.

Recently the Twins played against the weakest lineup the Yankees put on the field in my lifetime.  That should have evened the playing field.  But no, as we lost 3 out of 4 and tried to lose the 4th.  

While the list is long, many are mediocre. Some were not expected to be healthy enough to play much.  And some have chronic injuries, so their time away should have been anticipated.  

On top of that, the fact mentioned in a previous comment about the benefits of some of the injuries cannot be overlooked.  Sano is a great example.  I am convinced, had it not been for injury, the Twins would have wasted hundreds of at bats on a player that would simply strike out in most of them. - Not to mention the upgrade they got by his replacements.   The luckiness of a few of these convenient injuries certainly offsets some of the damage purported in the article.

I doubt we'll see a Rocco firing this offseason after this year's debacle, but adding on to last year's last place finish, a case can be made.  Or we can just watch next season play out the same way and write about more excuses.

I want my kids to see a playoff win in their lifetime.  It's obvious that it won't happen under Rocco. 

 

[Beast]

I get that excitement for the team drives page views, revenues, etc. and I’m sure the people you all deal with in the FO really appreciate articles like these….but woof.  What a parade of “it’s not their fault,” this week.

What’s the old saying…”Thou doth protest too much?”  At least present the illusion of unbiased analysis here occasionally.  Thats why I came here in the first place.  It was once honest analysis.

The comment to the effect of “nothing they can do about Paddack and Mahle,” Is a bridge too far for even the biggest homer.  The Mets, one of the most generally incompetent organizations of the past few decades, backed out of a Paddack trade because they were concerned about the elbow before the Twins made the deal.  The freaking Mets found a way to figure it out and make the right call on that one.

[dogsday]

Agree with the previous posters who label the Twins as a mid-market team who will not be able to spend their way out of player injuries issues. So identifying young players with development potential and developing them will be key to success.

Playing professional baseball involves much repetitive stress (in addition to skills)—throwing, swinging a bat, stopping and starting, bending, changing direction quickly etc. A team that developed a conditioning program that minimized injuries from those stresses would be positioned for success. And training programs are cheap compared to the cost of players. Player development can’t just be about increasing power, launch angle, velocity, etc. It has to be about keeping assets (players) on the field. A conditioning program targeted on repetitive stress injury reduction wouldn’t eliminate hit-by-pitch or stepping on a can injuries. But it might help with hip, knee, elbow, shoulder injuries.

[KirbyDome89]

"I don't see much of a case for holding the manager or even the front office primarily accountable for what's gone down this season."

Audibly laughed out loud at this. I mean yeah, can't be the fault of a FO who constructed a makeshift bullpen, placed immense importance on a "pipeline," that has failed spectacularly, signed two bargain bin starters prone to short outings that further exacerbated the already terrible pen situation, and traded for two more injured starters. Oh, and don't forget, we're still watching Emilio Pagan, the worst relief pitcher in baseball, trot out there and give up runs in crucial games while this team hangs on by a thread. Definitely not much of a case for holding that group accountable. Zero chance any of that has contributed to this being a sub .500 teams for the last 4 months right? The above poster is correct, this is high level cringe....

Lewis and Kirilloff: Losing Kirilloff sucks, no question. We're lacking a ton of context with Lewis. Coming into this year he hadn't played since 2019, and he wasn't exactly stellar in A ball that year. There were real questions about him. The Twins weren't banking on him, hence the Correa signing. It's a bummer he injured the ACL again, and he was hitting the s*** outta the ball before getting sent down, but when the season started this team didn't need or maybe expect Royce Lewis to come up and play the way he did. 

Mahle and Paddack: They traded for broken parts, not once, but twice within 4 months. That's not aww shucks bad luck. It just isn't. 

Buxton: He's never going to play a full season. We knew it before the year started. It's why the 4th OF topic was a hot debate. He basically made it to September before having to shut it down. We can quibble over how his playing time was handled, but you already said it, second most PAs of his career. We take that every time. 

Jeffers and Larnach: Jeffers was bottom tier offensively, even by catching standards and he was even worse than Sanchez at stopping the run game. Would I take him over Leon? Yeah, but that's a pretty low hurdle. He's ideally the short side of a catching split, i.e. a backup catcher. Larnach has been so streaky, Idk which version the Twins would've gotten, but yep, I'd definitely prefer watching him to Cave or Garlick. 

Winder and Ober: No clear red flags? Are we actually serious with this? Both ended last year on the IL, Winder with his shoulder issue that's now flared up 3 times in less than a year and Ober with a hip injury that I imagine is linked to the groin issue that's cost him most of this year. Ober also hasn't been able to stay healthy enough to handle even modest workloads 4 professional seasons now....

Alcala and Canterino: Canterino threw 23 innings in the low minors before missing the rest of the year. Zero chance he was supposed to be relied on. Alcala had a nice September last year, he was borderline unusable through July. We act like he was a solid set up guy, the reality is he was a question mark even if fully healthy.  

Coulombe, Stashak, Romero, Dobnak, and Maeda:  Maeda was injured last August, they knew what his status was heading into the offseason. The rest are AAAA, waiver claim, minor league contract guys. Just stop with this nonsense.

[wsnydes]

Before the season, my biggest concern was the depth of the pitching and production of the younger players.  And I believed that the season would go as the younger players did.  The pitching blew through the depth that they did have, and then some as the injuries kept piling up.  The younger players actually played pretty well, but then they fell to the same injury bug.  

I didn't expect this team to be all that competitive.  I saw it as more of a bridge to next season while getting the next group of prospects MLB experience.  I figured they'd end up with a win total in the upper 70s.  That's probably about where they will end up, but in a much different manner of getting there.  And they were more "competitive" much longer than I expected.  With the lineups that they've had to trot out there, it's pretty obvious why they have faded away.  

The FO and coaching staff deserve some blame, but I don't know how anyone can reasonably expect them to be able to keep the ship upright with so much of the top end talent of the team on the IL.  The medical staff and procedures do really need to get an full evaluation.  Two years in a row with a squad decimated by injuries isn't a fluke anymore.  

[Boom Boom]

 

When you rely on your prospect pipeline to field a competitive team, you can't miss on a trade like Mahle, which the Twins did.  It was a bad trade.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Instead of a simple counting of players (dressed up in beautiful prose), I would like to see an analysis of expected value lost.

I would argue that the Mets have lost more expected contribution between DeGrom and Scherzer’s injuries than that whole group of Twins pitchers combined. Just as @Yawn Gardenhose mentioned, the Twins had gotten to first place without Mahle. I think it’s more accurate to say that Mahle’s injury cost them future value from their farm system and not from their rotation. (Pitching rotations are alive and well across MLB, by the way, after some flirting with the opener/primary model a few years ago.)

It’s also pretty apparent to me that the White Sox have lost more expected value from injury, than the Twins.

[TwinsDr2021]

I put this in another thread. Coming into the year the twins top 6 starters were.

Gary - 22 starts

Ryan - 23 starts

Bundy - 25 starts

Archer - 25 starts

Ober - 7 starts

Paddack - 5 starts

Smelzter - 12 starts

That is 119 starts of 139 games, and they traded for Mahle and got three starts. that is 17 games that basically they had to fill the rotation and if you add Winder that is down to 10 games.

The problem wasn't the injuries it was the top 4 pitchers killed the pen and this FO and manager decided to fill that void with mostly 1 inning relief pitchers.

As for the injuries to the offensive guys Buxton and Polanco hurt the most, but if you are the FO you really need a plan B and C for Buxton because we all know he isn't playing the whole year. AK, Larnach, Jeffers have never done anything in the majors so again you need a plan if they can't hit or get hurt, doesn't seem like there was one.

In conclusion the injuries hurt but more than the roster construction? I am not so sure.

 

[mikelink45]

Quote

The comment to the effect of “nothing they can do about Paddack and Mahle,” Is a bridge too far for even the biggest homer.  The Mets, one of the most generally incompetent organizations of the past few decades, backed out of a Paddack trade because they were concerned about the elbow before the Twins made the deal.  

This says it all.  I am surprised by another article excusing the Twins for their bad judgment and after the "Death Spiral" I am surprised to see Nick writing this essay.

We are not the only team to deal with injuries In 2019 the Yankees had 2246 injury days, In 2011 the Twins were the most injured. In between it was the San Diego Padres.  It is definitely part of baseball, but we are on the list too often.

This year we tried the days off routine which would be fine if we knew which days the player was going to be injured and then had them take those games off.  But there is something else going on.

Buxton is a chronic case and I do not know how they will overcome this fragile body.  The same can be said for Kiriloff who missed a lot of time in the minors too.  There are trends with some players and their bodies.  It is why Paddock and Mahle are considered bad trades by so many.

What allows a Gehrig or Ripken to go on and on?  It is a mystery. And we are not close to finding a solution.  

The last point I would make is one that others have stated - some on your list may of may not have made the team -Dobnak (questionable talent), Maeda was a known loss, Canterino was not penciled in, he was someone we hoped would rise. Jeffers bat is not missed and his catching is better than Sanchez, but not as good as Leon. The three relievers you lumped together were fillers, not difference makers. 

[rv78]

Tell us who we should be excited about for the future of the Twins outside of Arraez, Miranda, Duran and possibly Gordon? Everyone else has issues that are concerning. Can some of them over-come those issues? Absolutely, but to count on it is a huge mistake. This Franchise needs to re-evaluate its conditioning program, its teaching of fundamentals, how the team is managed on a game by game basis, and how it evaluates players they are trying to acquire in trades. All 4 need major upgrades and if the current regime isn't capable of addressing these 4 things that are the core of the current teams problems then they are incompetant and should be replace immediately. The injury excuse only goes so far when you acquire and resign injury prone players, don't play sound fundamental baseball, and manage all of the games the exact same way regardless of the situation.

[Riverbrian]

Correa, Miranda, Gordon.

Take a look at the stats for the last 30 days. 

Correa, Miranda, Gordon are the only hitters with regular AB's that have hit acceptably over the 30 days.

 

Arraez and Urshela have been OK for the last 30 days. Neither is leading us to glory nor keeping us from it. 

 

Kepler, Celestino and Cave... Look at what the entire OF is doing over the last 30 days. 

Cave wasn't supposed to be here so you can't blame Jake, the front office knew who Celestino was by the trade deadline and then there is Max. 

Another bat... A rental... a good one... should have been acquired at the deadline. 

 

 

 

 

[tarheeltwinsfan]

This article by Nick and the responding posts present quite the conundrum. Dur4ing the next 6 months there is plenty of blame to discuss, if one wants to spend one's time this way. One thing we can all agree on is that this 2022 season has become a disappointing fade by the Twins.  Bit by bit, step by step, mistake after mistake, hit into the shift, get picked off base, send a runner from 3B to be thrown out by 10 feet at home, forget how many outs are in the inning, walk the first batter in an inning, hang a breaking pitch, on and on it goes. To paraphrase Douglas McArthur: "Minnesota Twins never die, they just fade away." Now we are facing another Twins-less October and a bleak, colder than average winter, dark until 10 am with daylight savings time now in place fulltime.  Dirty ice and snow and cold winds. Cars won't start. No more sunny spring mornings, fresh vegetables and warm summer nights. Are we Twins fans doomed to repeat this scenario, every September? Is it a self full-filling prophecy? Is it the "Lake Wobegon curse"? My life would have been so different if I had not transferred my loyalty to Minnesota when the Senators fled D.C. I could have chosen to be a Yankee fan  and not even have noticed that I was obnoxious. Alas, all is lost. 

[Richie the Rally Goat]

45 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

I put this in another thread. Coming into the year the twins top 6 starters were.

Gary - 22 starts

Ryan - 23 starts

Bundy - 25 starts

Archer - 25 starts

Ober - 7 starts

Paddack - 5 starts

Smelzter - 12 starts

That is 119 starts of 139 games, and they traded for Mahle and got three starts. that is 17 games that basically they had to fill the rotation and if you add Winder that is down to 10 games.

The problem wasn't the injuries it was the top 4 pitchers killed the pen and this FO and manager decided to fill that void with mostly 1 inning relief pitchers.

As for the injuries to the offensive guys Buxton and Polanco hurt the most, but if you are the FO you really need a plan B and C for Buxton because we all know he isn't playing the whole year. AK, Larnach, Jeffers have never done anything in the majors so again you need a plan if they can't hit or get hurt, doesn't seem like there was one.

In conclusion the injuries hurt but more than the roster construction? I am not so sure.

 

This! At least on the pitching side, FO planned on short starts and traded for already injured starters, but didn’t build a bullpen to fill out the rest of the innings.

on the hitting side, I can see a case for the injuries piling up, but not pitching. That is straight up FO fail

[Whitey333]

It is true the Twins had plenty of injuries.  Some people list them and make it appear they were all all stars.  Most of the players on that elongated injury list were not expected to be major contributers.  To leave the FO  and manager blameless due to the injuries is disingenuous.  Since June the twins have been playing poor uninspired baseball.  The FO made some trades which thus far have not planned out.  The FO created the pitching mess by signing has beens on the cheap.  If you are going to go with short starts like 5 innings or less as the pitching philosophy you better have a very solid bullpen.  The team is listless and shows no sense of urgency in it's approach.  We have a manager that has poor in game management skills and questionable pitching management.  The team has too many players that don't hustle.  We don't advance runners and have very poor base running.  But the plan is the plan and Rocco and coaches stick with it no matter what.  It's what got us to this point.  It's what is going to finish us off.

[Squirrel]

1 hour ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

In conclusion the injuries hurt but more than the roster construction? I am not so sure.

This is in a nutshell for me, too. Especially roster construction. And even more specific, BP construction. Yeah, the injuries sucked, and it's anyone's guess where we'd be if they weren't the issue. But when you construct a roster and know your starting rotation is not going to be able to go deep into games, you have to have a very durable and capable BP. We didn't have that from day 1. Did that philosophy weigh at all in some of the pitcher injuries? No way to know for certain, at least not from my perspective of one who is not an insider with insider information. So, I do put fault with the FO for that. I mean, not completely, but, it needs to be looked at, seriously.

Two, the injuries ... we traded for two players, and signed a couple more, who were injury risks to begin with. So, maybe the FO has some work to do on how they evaluate these risks and these players. It can't just be 'give them enough rest' as a solution. I think there is something amiss in how they go about identifying these types of players.

So, @Nick Nelson, while I do think the injuries played a big part in our season, I do think the FO bears maybe a 50/50 responsibility in that.

But I'm also in alignment with what @wsnydes said in their post above ... I never expected this team to be at all competitive. I predicted they'd be middle of the division, at or near (plus or minus) .500. The fact that we were competitive ... with that record? Well, that shows the weakness of the division. However, I did see some good baseball. And so what if the division was weak, it still made it competitive relative to that.

 

[Doctor Gast]

I really like the Twins phylosophy of resting players, Resting players helps the players remain healthy & fresh to maximize their production and getting more capable players in the games helps to keep everyone happy. Yet in Polanco's case, he was way over used. Polanco is one who'll never say when he's hurting and because of his glove & switch hitting bat is so valuable, he seldom subbed. Right now we really need his bat that was so impactful last year at this time.

There are some players like Kiriloff with his weird wrist problem which injury that couldn't be expected & Buxton's explosive plays whose injuries are some what expected. These injuries cannnot be helped. Here again I'd have place Buxton more often  on the IL to give him more time to heal.

Although management brag about resting their players, yet it seems like they threw this phylosophy out the window when purtaining to their pitchers. They have always over relied on their short relief plus this year they got rid of our only proven high leverage RP and doubled down on short RPs that had no business being there. To compensate they over extended the rotation resulting in poor performances & injuries. This where the majority of injuries have always lies. Vast majority of these injuries could have been avoided if long relief was incorporated & used, even Mahle & Paddack injuries could have been avoided or at least minimized if their innings were better managed, not trying to see how far we can extend them.

The greatest loss was when they placed Lewis (who had lost the entire '21 season because of knee surgery) in CF. When I saw that I was yelling at the TV, saying how stupid can you be, jeopordizing our suseptable #1 pick, high impact ceiling SS in dangerous CF where we've suffered loss with Buxton. Baldelli said afterwards that we'll continue to see Lewis in CF, how delusioned can you be! Lewis's talent & fire has been greatly missed.

Although some of our injuries could not be helped but majority of them could be. Mismanagement is the main cause of these injuries, many loses & possibly lost division title & post season.

[mac098]

My biggest take on this is well simple: Rocco's strategy of giving players regular time clearly isn't working. Yes, we all know Buxton is a glass cannon, but even with his days off, he still found himself on the IL. On top of that we went after Paddock (which I thought was a decent deal that slightly favored us at the time) but he has had UCL surgery in the past.

Then we went out and traded for Mahle, who we knew was having shoulder problems prior to him coming here. Was it something that the Reds knew was going to be a persistent problem in the future so they made him look really enticing for another team? Who knows. 

Then we get to Kiriloff. We were told repeatedly by the medical staff that his wrist was going to continue to give him fits and that he would either need to get Cortisone shots and more surgeries. At this point we might need to start looking at trading for a 1B or developing a SS or 3B to take the spot from AK. Larnach was a freak thing, but not surprising with how violently the players swing now because singles and doubles don't mean much in terms of stats. All about the HR's. 

Royce Lewis has had probably the unluckiest career out there. COVID, ACL, and ACL in the the most important years for a young player to have. Would he have contributed right away this year? It is hard to say, but if he hadn't gotten injured, Gordon, Arraez, Miranda, and even Urshela may not be where they are today. Those 4 started to play well when they got regular playing time (which is typically expected of most players) and we wouldn't be dealing with the whole Keplar injured but we don't have anymore OF available, Cave wouldn't have been re-added to the 40, and Celestine could have possibly worked more on his offense down in AAA. 

 

The Twins are battered, bruised, and bloody. We are just a few late season injuries from being almost a full AAA team in the majors. Playoffs are not happening. We should worry about getting players healthy for next year and potentially making some changes with our Strength and Conditioning coach(es) and possibly our medical staff. We need to be able to help our players get the rest they need and deserve and clearly it's showing that we suck diagnosing stuff right away. Which leads to our recovery being in complete disarray. 

[Reptevia]

What twinsdr2021 said. 

[roger]

Well written, Nick, as are the many comments disagreeing with you.  After the wonderful start to this season, is disappointing to be where we are today.

There is nothing wrong with wanting to see the Twins have another nice playoff run.  But for guys my age, we don't have that many seasons remaining for this to happen.  So for me, I want change...lots of change.  And I want it to start at the top and go thru the entire coaching staff.  Come on Jim Pohlad, rather than being disappointed get p.....ed off and make some changes.  A lot of us old guys want to have a fun October, at least once more.

[howeda7]

7 hours ago, Yawn Gardenhose said:

On July 5th, the Twins were 10 games over .500 and had a 4.5 game lead on the division. At that time, 11 of these 16 injured players were on the injured list then and most had been shelved for the majority of the season at that point - only Larnach's injury occurred recently to that July 5th date. And of the players whose injuries occurred after 7/5, one was Mahle who was still a Cincinnati Red at this time.

Injuries have hit them hard, but I think it's mostly quantity than quality. The most impactful injuries are the latest two - Buxton and Polanco. You could argue that some of the injuries have benefited the Twins too. If Sano doesn't get hurt, Arraez might not have taken off to the extent he did, and it's possible that Miranda doesn't get as long of a look without the opportunity that was created for him. And it's hard for me to put too much stock into Lewis's injury from a "how it affected the 2022 Minnesota Twins" standpoint, as he wasn't expected to be a major contributor to the big-league club this year anyway, particularly after they signed Correa (his injury is much more concerning from a development/big-picture organizational standpoint). 

The injuries in total are definitely a factor in the collapse, but more importantly I think they've helped to expose some glaring flaws with this organization's philosophy and approach on several fronts. Acknowledging and correcting those flaws will make this season not totally for naught as good organizations adapt and learn from mistakes. Unfortunately I don't think this organization is in the hands of people that are terribly good at identifying their mistakes much less righting them. I hope I'm wrong. 

All of this. There has been some injuries. And if it required 95 wins to make the playoffs then *they never had a chance". But 85 likely would have done it and they still failed. And many of these injuries were foreseeable or should have been.

 

Sorry, the front office does not get a pass from me. The way they handle and evaluate players, especially pitchers, is fundamentally broken. The Twins will never win a championship with Falvey at the helm. 

[Mark G]

33 minutes ago, roger said:

Well written, Nick, as are the many comments disagreeing with you.  After the wonderful start to this season, is disappointing to be where we are today.

There is nothing wrong with wanting to see the Twins have another nice playoff run.  But for guys my age, we don't have that many seasons remaining for this to happen.  So for me, I want change...lots of change.  And I want it to start at the top and go thru the entire coaching staff.  Come on Jim Pohlad, rather than being disappointed get p.....ed off and make some changes.  A lot of us old guys want to have a fun October, at least once more.

From one old timer to another, well said!

[terrydactyls]

Good article, Nick.  And I'm glad you stated right at the beginning that the injuries did not absolve the managerial staff or front office from blame.  Too bad all the posters ignored that statement and chose to turn it into another opportunity to dump on the managerial staff and the front office. 

[jharaldson]

I disagree with some of your analysis and level of blame:

1. Kirilloff - The Twins went into last offseason and this spring training knowing they did nothing to fundamentally address Kirilloff's wrist injury which was a significant issue in 2021 already.  The fact that this lingered and has resulted in a more definitive surgery in 2022 is a failure of the Front Office and something that was an easily foreseeable outcome of their decisions.
2. Paddack - The Twins acquired Paddack knowing he had a partially torn UCL.  Best case outcome was they get by for a season or 2 like they did with Maeda.  Worst case was a complete tear and loss for the season.  It looks like the Twins used their luck up in situations like these with Maeda and they got the worst outcome.  Losing Paddack in 2022 was an easily foreseeable outcome and another Front Office failure.
3. Mahle - He literally just came off the IL from a shoulder injury and we now know he was receiving special shoulder therapy because of issues from that.  Perhaps there is a reason he was cheaper than the other frontline starters available at the deadline.  This is another item the Twins Front Office needs to own as their failure. 
4. Buxton - The Twins Front Office knew that Buxton was a significant injury risk and that is why he was relatively cheap.  The Front Office knew what they were getting into and if Cave and Celestino have not filled in as well as one might have hoped, that is the choice Front Office made.
5. Ober/Winder - Both guys came into the season with injury issues.  As Gleeman frequently states, if you want to count on young pitching then make sure you have 2/3 times as many young pitchers as you need.  Joe Ryan was the 1 success and Ober and Winder are the 2 failures.  This is a foreseeable outcome for the Twins Front Office.
6. Maeda - The Twins acquired Maeda knowing he had elbow issues that would require surgery back to his signing with the Dodgers in 2016.  Getting a season and a half out of him was good luck. The Front Office knew he was out for 2022 and should have planned accordingly.  

In short, when the Front Office is asked to value skill, cost to acquire, cost to own, and injury risk, they seem to always come down on the side of injury risk being the thing they care least about.  I have no sympathy and a lot of blame to place on Falvey and Lavine when those injuries happen.

[USAFChief]

Some very well written responses above, to a very questionable premise. (Shout out to Mark G and Yawn G, and slow handclap to Kirbydome, for completely gutting this article.)

I'll just add a couple things: 

- you can't separate all injuries from the front office/manager. Nick's article lists Kiriloff as both an unforeseeable tragedy and "a problem thats been plaguing him for years, sapping him of his most important skill." Huh? It wasn't possible to plan for something known for years? We can't consider whether the stupid "100 game plan" for Buxton was a proper response to his knee injury in April? Of course you have to include "how'd we get there" to any article about injuries. 

- I'd argue if Royce Lewis is listed 1st, as your most impactful injury, you're in pretty good shape. Lewis was a bust coming into the season and not expected to have much if any impact. 

 

 

 

 

[Squirrel]

8 hours ago, Nashvilletwin said:

There are many other TDers, perhaps the minority, who are tremendously sympathetic with the argument, but cannot out of hand dismiss the managerial,

I'd bet that this is not a minority.