Week in Review: Death Spiral

[Riverbrian]

22 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

13/8 = 1.62 

162/1.62 = 1 error every 100 games

22/3 = 7.33

162/7.33 = 1 error every 22 games

While you wait 22 games for that Wallner error to occur.

Max Kepler is hitting .227 while slugging .348

Jake Cave is starting in CF

Kyle Garlick hasn't been allowed to hit righthanders for 4 years

Gilberto Celestino... during a pennant chase... can't remember how many outs there are despite being one of the rare baserunners that the team produced during an awful offensive stretch... not to mention Celestino somehow has a lower OPS than Kepler, which is hard to do.  

Wallner is 24.7 years old.

Wallner will need to be added to the 40 man in December

The law firm of Hamilton, Hamilton and Palacios are on the 26 man roster and none of them are playing during a time when we are desperate for ANYONE to PLAY DECENTLY. 

Obviously we have 26 man space plus 40 man space.

AND... AND... It is important to note that they were just swept by a team featuring 7 rookie hitters out of 14 hitters on the roster.

In conclusion... Defense better not be the reason. 

 

 

Choosing lesser players will consistently kill your team.

I don't know if Wallner is a better player but you have to find out because based on actual performance with the chips down, the players in front shouldn't be in front of anyone. 

Louie Varland pitched very very well in his debut. He should be making his next start tomorrow night or Wednesday night at the latest. He won't because we have committed to multiple pitchers with ERA's over 4 (by quite some distance) instead. 

 

[Jeff D.]

The culmination of a pretty decent team being led by an uninspiring dugout and data person. The individual should not be allowed to wear that Twins hoodie next year or be allowed to enter the grounds. Injuries, bad pitching and horrific field leadership have led us to this.

Hopefully change will happen just as the leaves will fall before winter. Go Twins!

Twins Geezer.... out!

[mikelink45]

11 hours ago, RpR said:

Kepler has 13 errors in right field in 8 major league seasons.

Wallner has 22 errors in right field in 3 minor league seasons.

At this point I will take Wallner's bat - reports have his defense improving, no reports have Keplers ABs improving. 

[mikelink45]

Quote

The law firm of Hamilton, Hamilton and Palacios are on the 26 man roster and none of them are playing during a time when we are desperate for ANYONE to PLAY DECENTLY. 

RiverBrian posted the above - it is something I have been thinking about.  How many players do we have on the roster that have no value?  The last four slots in our lineup cancel the value of the 4/5 hitters getting on base.  This is where the injuries really show.  But aren't there minor league batters like Wallner, Helman worth trying?  I know that minor league value doesn't always translate to MLB - look at Cave's ST Paul stats.  But we have to keep shuffling the deck until a few Aces show up.  Go to AA if necessary.  

[DJL44]

12 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

But we have to keep shuffling the deck until a few Aces show up.  Go to AA if necessary.  

You'll be lucky to find a face card and you're likely to find a few jokers.

That said, once this team is eliminated from the race they need to cut Billy Hamilton. He's not helpful.

[Blyleven2011]

What has happened to the bomba squad  , it's non existence  ...

Can't score runs in scoring position  without the bomba squad  ...

We stopped hitting bombas and management is still playing the same way as if we are ...

No small ball with runners in scoring position  , I understand the no bunting  to move runner up a base and not give the other team an out ...

What I don't understand is with no outs and a player hits a double and we don't bunt him over to third and then hit a sacrifice fly to the outfield to score the runners , when one plan isn't working  you have to improvise to another plan ... 

Looking over the stats of the players this morning  and  most of them are  pathetic and in my opinion  that is reflective on our coaching  .... 

We have a rookie miranda leading the team in RBI's with 61   ,  we will not have a player reach 100 rbis since Eddie Rosario  was here ,,,, no player will accumulate a 100 runs scored since Dozier i believe  , I remember when players hit 40 or more doubles a year , arraez leads the team on doubles with 28 , Buxton with his speed should have hit 40 doubles before he went on the IL if he was hitting this year ... he does lead the club with 28 homeruns  but only 51 rbis  , that was not a productive season  as his homers were mostly solo homeruns  ...

Batting average is led by Arraez's  315 average  , followed gordon 281 followed by Correa 278 , Miranda at 275 and urshela at 267 followed by Polanco at 237  , the rest suck ,, 

I think average , rbis and runs matter and  a ball not in play ( strikeouts  ) suck ... 

Anyone not protecting the plate with two strikes  and strikes out looking should be fined , any runner not injured should be fined for not running a ball out ( see kepler a couple of weeks ago standing at home while the ball was fair ,  confused he was  ) you run everything out and don't leave your fate to the umpires  ...

We need change of coaching  ...

Our moderators have asked us not to use names,  third base  needs another change in coaching  , pitching coach definitely should have a new coach replacing the departed Wes Johnson  , some would believe a hitting coach too ,  but until we get an even rhythm of baseball  ( new school and old school baseball together  )  I don't think a new hitting coach will change anything  ...

So are we divided on the concept of baseball  , stay the plan or change the plan ....

[Mark G]

10 hours ago, PopRiveter said:

Apparently you weren’t at the game today like I was, watching an outfield of Cave/Celestino/Garlick. The Twins had to field that group because injuries have sidelined Buxton, Kepler, Kiriloff, Larnach, and Contreras. All higher options on the depth chart than the players that were actually playing.

The infield is missing Polanco, Sano, Lewis and Jeffers. 

That’s without even mentioning the many pitching injuries that have gutted the starting and relief corps.

The team is broken. They are cooked. They are severely injured. I feel it’s disingenuous to claim otherwise.

No I wasn't, but I am staring at the box score as I write this, and I see a pretty talented batting order compared to the rest of our division, which is what I said we had enough talent to compete against.  The top 7, and Sanchez at the bottom for a spell, can compete in this division; we are not devoid of talent in that clubhouse.  Same can be said for the pitchers we sent out there.  None of them are slugs, even if Lopez had a bad day.  

I know what everyone is saying about the injuries, but I also know what they all have been saying about the young guys coming up to fill in.  Miranda, Gordon, Garlick, Celestino, and some of the pitchers have done fine in replacing guys who are down, not to mention Arraez, Correa, and Urshela.  For all the reasons we have talked about here all season they have not put it together as we had hoped, but it is not for lack of ability.  

[Riverbrian]

Injuries happen every year.

Yeah... This year has been bad. Perhaps the baddest of all of them. 

But Injuries were bad last year and the year before that and the year before that. 

My personal feelings are: Injuries are never a valid excuse. 

[bean5302]

11 hours ago, PopRiveter said:

Apparently you weren’t at the game today like I was, watching an outfield of Cave/Celestino/Garlick. The Twins had to field that group because injuries have sidelined Buxton, Kepler, Kiriloff, Larnach, and Contreras. All higher options on the depth chart than the players that were actually playing.

The infield is missing Polanco, Sano, Lewis and Jeffers. 

That’s without even mentioning the many pitching injuries that have gutted the starting and relief corps.

The team is broken. They are cooked. They are severely injured. I feel it’s disingenuous to claim otherwise.

Kirilloff was going to be at 1B where Arraez has been the primary and Miranda the backup. Both of whom are better than Kirilloff has been.

Garlick's maybe a 1 WAR/year drop off from Kepler. 

Larnach has been largely replaced with Gordon who has held his own quite well.

Sano is negative value and it was fortuitous he wasn't needed on the 26 man roster so Arraez could play 1B and make his first All Star Game.

Lewis was never going to be a starter in the infield this year. He wasn't going to supplant Correa. Lewis was going to be what Gordon is.

Jeffers is no better than Sanchez. We haven't lost anything there.

The real point is Polanco and Buxton are the only players the Twins are really missing right now in the lineup.

[insagt1]

Quote from our manager: 'this thing is not over. It's not close to over'

Its not over---correct. It's not close to over--incorrect. Its very close to over. He is saying all the right things publicly but he must know in his heart of hearts....its really over. Unless he pulls all kind of magic out of an non-existent hat, this team won't be beating Cleveland this weekend. And I seriously doubt they can sweep KC, which they will have to do to stay even remotely in the race (which i believe has left the building)

Fundamental baseball has also left the building. When a team is struggling mightily with scoring runs, why not bunt? Why not try to hit to the right side?  Why not try and manufacture a run instead of trying to hit the ball to North Dakota? The lower half of our lineup and the bench is woefully inadequate so you have to get creative. But really, Twins are not as good as Cleveland or Chicago right now. We fans really shouldn't be expecting much. But what we do expect is for these guys to go out everyday and bust their tails trying. What we have seen too much...lack of hustle; mental mistakes; and real bad pitching. Thats probably not going to change in the final handful of games.

[PDX Twin]

52 minutes ago, insagt1 said:

Quote from our manager: 'this thing is not over. It's not close to over'

He's paid to sound optimistic. I would expect that he is wrong if "this thing" is the Twins' hopes for the season. I would hope that he is wrong if "this thing" is his Twins' career.

[roger]

Well written, Nick. 

I too am looking ahead, but to 2023.  And what I see looks good, very good.  Don't see a need for a lot of changes, other than good health to a lot of players.  Maybe a little tinkering with a massive change in the dugout to the manager and coaching staff, ie, total change.

Have a wonderful winter, Nick.

 

[Battle ur tail off]

17 hours ago, RpR said:

Some thing is totally out of whack, behind by six or seven runs they can hit and score runs, though not enough to win; down by one run when they bat, hitting is some thing the other guy does only the other guy does not.

Going against other teams mop up men is what it is. Simple as that. Down by 4 or better late, the other team is going to put someone in there to rest their better arms. 

 

[RpR]

1 hour ago, Battle ur tail off said:

Going against other teams mop up men is what it is. Simple as that. Down by 4 or better late, the other team is going to put someone in there to rest their better arms. 

 

OK , excpet earlier in the year, they shut down after five innings regardless of who was the pitcher

[Nick Nelson]

19 hours ago, PopRiveter said:

This article twice characterized Wnder looking good today. I disagree. He was getting hit hard and managed to take advantage of some nice breaks. Glad he got through it, but I don’t think many of us there today felt confident with the frequent hard contact he was allowing. 

I said he looked "solid" and "decent" -- hardly glowing praise lol. But I'll take a 4-to-1 K/BB ratio in 4 IP after he put up 9 K and 10 BB in 23 IP over his previous 5 Twins appearances. Step in the right direction.

[Teflon]

There should be a season-long graph similar to the game win probability graphs that show the flagging levels of Twins fans' hopes. Big spike when we signed Correa. Moderate spikes when we gave Duran and Miranda regular gigs - everything else, craters. Can't wait to play the Yankees and Astros more times next season and the Royals and Tigers less.  

[RpR]

Just heard a bit of a sports show on WCCO radio; in the part I heard they said injuries were piling up but that was zero excuse for getting swept by Cleveland, or their poor play of late.

Sadly I could not stay for any more.

[Vanimal46]

15 minutes ago, Teflon said:

There should be a season-long graph similar to the game win probability graphs that show the flagging levels of Twins fans' hopes. Big spike when we signed Correa. Moderate spikes when we gave Duran and Miranda regular gigs - everything else, craters. Can't wait to play the Yankees and Astros more times next season and the Royals and Tigers less.  

First time it cratered was the mid-June series with Cleveland when Pagan blew multiple games. Then it rose at the trade deadline. And cratered to an all time low this week. 

[SanoMustGo]

Cleveland on their way to a win tonight.  Thus 5 games back.  If Cleveland finishes 11-12, the Twins would have to go 16-7 just to tie.  LOL.  Please, no chance, none whatsoever.  My guess is Cleveland finishes 13-10 and the Twins 9-14, thus we end up 9 games back.

[MABB1959]

So happy, Blue Jays was the free MLB game of the day.  Got to see one of my all time favorite pitchers and a real MLB team.  Sad that we can only dream of a team like the Blue Jays.   

[DocBauer]

So here's the thing, 23G left and not yet mathematically eliminated. It's baseball. How many times over the years have we seen the improbable actually happen? Seems to happen every single year to one team or another. So why not the Twins? Do I actually EXPECT this team, so injured and down and incomplete to make a move over 23G...with help from losses by Cleveland and Chicago...to actually have a realistic chance to win the ALC? NOPE. But I'm also old school enough to know you never give up, for PRIDE sake if nothing else.

It will take luck and desperation for the Twins to make a move at this point. And that's EXACTLY what I'm ASKING FOR at this point. And I'm asking for it in a POSITIVE way! 

We have the next several months to debate the staff, the players, the FO, 2022, and everything in between as well as 2023. But how do we finish 2022? I prefer to go down kicking and screaming!

1] Bring up Wallner, probably too early, let him get experience and work out some early 2023 kinks. A rookie who doesn't know any better, and pitchers who don't know him, he might crank a couple HR and help win a game. He has to be added anyway, why not now? Cave doesn't have a future and Kepler is a shadow of himself. 

2] Archer is on the IL and probably done. Mercifully so, though I'm not trying to be mean. He just didn't turn out. He OR Bundy wasn't a bad 5th option, but both helped doom the rotation. Winder and probably Ober should BOTH be up to finish out the season to get ready for 2023 if nothing else. And even if Ober or Winder settles in the pen to finish 2022, Varland should ABSOLUTELY be in the rotation to finish things out. You couldn't have asked for a more difficult debut for Varland than Yankee stadium and he was cool and solid. All 3 should be part of the finish for 2022, whether it's hopeful lightening in a bottle or just getting ready for next year.

3] I have nothing against Cotton. He's been OK here and there even though his peripherals aren't great. But I'm still stunned Davis and Jewell were added over a 3rd veteran in Peacock. He's been better than the other 2 for his career, as well as the past few months. Why those 2 journeymen and not him blows my mind. For that matter, are we going to protect Sisk? He was lights out at AA, OK to begin AAA, and then lights out again. Why not roll the dice?

4] Garlick is good in a role against LH pitching and doesn't totally suck against RH arms. But he's playing at maybe 75% health. With nothing to lose, why not Helman up to provide flexibility position wise, and a HEALTHY RH bat with speed on the basepaths and some XB power.

Who are we looking to protect and keep at this point? Archer, Cotton, Hamilton, Hamilton? Give a couple healthy guys a shot to supplement whats left of the team and hope lightening strikes a couple of times. 

[DocBauer]

WeSo here's the thing, 23G left and not yet mathematically eliminated. It's baseball. How many times over the years have we seen the improbable actually happen? Seems to happen every single year to one team or another. So why not the Twins? Do I actually EXPECT this team, so injured and down and incomplete to make a move over 23G...with help from losses by Cleveland and Chicago...to actually have a realistic chance to win the ALC? NOPE. But I'm also old school enough to know you never give up, for PRIDE sake if nothing else.

It will take luck and desperation for the Twins to make a move at this point. And that's EXACTLY what I'm ASKING FOR at this point. And I'm asking for it in a POSITIVE way! 

We have the next several months to debate the staff, the players, the FO, 2022, and everything in between as well as 2023. But how do we finish 2022? I prefer to go down kicking and screaming!

1] Bring up Wallner, probably too early, let him get experience and work out some early 2023 kinks. A rookie who doesn't know any better, and pitchers who don't know him, he might crank a couple HR and help win a game. He has to be added anyway, why not now? Cave doesn't have a future and Kepler is a shadow of himself. 

2] Archer is on the IL and probably done. Mercifully so, though I'm not trying to be mean. He just didn't turn out. He OR Bundy wasn't a bad 5th option, but both helped doom the rotation. Winder and probably Ober should BOTH be up to finish out the season to get ready for 2023 if nothing else. And even if Ober or Winder settles in the pen to finish 2022, Varland should ABSOLUTELY be in the rotation to finish things out. You couldn't have asked for a more difficult debut for Varland than Yankee stadium and he was cool and solid. All 3 should be part of the finish for 2022, whether it's hopeful lightening in a bottle or just getting ready for next year.

3] I have nothing against Cotton. He's been OK here and there even though his peripherals aren't great. But I'm still stunned Davis and Jewell were added over a 3rd veteran in Peacock. He's been better than the other 2 for his career, as well as the past few months. Why those 2 journeymen and not him blows my mind. For that matter, are we going to protect Sisk? He was lights out at AA, OK to begin AAA, and then lights out again. Why not roll the dice?

4] Garlick is good in a role against LH pitching and doesn't totally suck against RH arms. But he's playing at maybe 75% health. With nothing to lose, why not Helman up to provide flexibility position wise, and a HEALTHY RH bat with speed on the basepaths and some XB power.

Who are we looking to protect and keep at this point? Archer, Cotton, Hamilton, Hamilton? Give a couple healthy guys a shot to supplement whats left of the team and hope lightening strikes a couple of times. 

[Nine of twelve]

2 hours ago, Teflon said:

Can't wait to play the Yankees and Astros more times next season and the Royals and Tigers less.  

Next season we will play the Yankees 7 times and the Astros 6 times. This season we played the Yankees 7 times and the Astros 6 times. The decrease in intra-division games next year is to make room for more inter-league games.

[tony&rodney]

We shall see what the Twins think of 2022 when we see the active roster for the Cleveland series. The roster moves will speak.

[tony&rodney]

I'm still waiting for a miracle.

However, I might just be seeing a dose of reality heading my way.

[DJL44]

17 hours ago, roger said:

Well written, Nick. 

I too am looking ahead, but to 2023.  And what I see looks good, very good.  Don't see a need for a lot of changes, other than good health to a lot of players. 

They may need to change players to change the health of players. For example, I don't know if Kirilloff or Ober will ever be healthy for a full season. I know Buxton won't be healthy for a full season.

[roger]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

They may need to change players to change the health of players. For example, I don't know if Kirilloff or Ober will ever be healthy for a full season. I know Buxton won't be healthy for a full season.

I hear your concern, DSL44, and share it.  But I don't know if it makes sense to change players.  Sure wouldn't want to trade Buxton.  Rather, they need to build better depth so that when player X goes down for whatever length they have someone more capable to step in.

For examples, as much as we were excited about Celestino the first month or so that he was playing regularly, he has proven to not be as good over the entire season.  Maybe a good 5th outfielder, but we need a #4 outfielder who is better and can play center.

 

[PopRiveter]

On 9/12/2022 at 10:17 AM, bean5302 said:

Kirilloff was going to be at 1B where Arraez has been the primary and Miranda the backup. Both of whom are better than Kirilloff has been.

Garlick's maybe a 1 WAR/year drop off from Kepler. 

Larnach has been largely replaced with Gordon who has held his own quite well.

Sano is negative value and it was fortuitous he wasn't needed on the 26 man roster so Arraez could play 1B and make his first All Star Game.

Lewis was never going to be a starter in the infield this year. He wasn't going to supplant Correa. Lewis was going to be what Gordon is.

Jeffers is no better than Sanchez. We haven't lost anything there.

The real point is Polanco and Buxton are the only players the Twins are really missing right now in the lineup.

I can’t let this go. I will try hard to be respectful, but I just can’t see this the way you do.

Buxton, Polanco, Kepler, Sano, Kiriloff, and Jeffers all made the opening day roster and all were out hurt. It was painfully obvious that a Plan B lineup was on the field.

First line of defense this year included opening day roster bench players who are now regulars-Arraez (thank God), Gordon & Celestino (both having risen to perform above expectations). These were supposed to be supplemental talent, not the core group.

Then comes the frontline contigency minor league group which was led by Garlick, Miranda, Lewis (out), Larnach (out).

It’s been a lot of blows to the depth of the lineup. Most everyone has lost some time and all the lifelines have been used extensively.

At this point, the attrition has overwhelmed the team. 

Again, this isn’t even touching on the pitching.

Is it an excuse? You can decide that for yourself. 

Is it an inescapable truth? Yup. 100%

[Teflon]

20 hours ago, Nine of twelve said:

Next season we will play the Yankees 7 times and the Astros 6 times. This season we played the Yankees 7 times and the Astros 6 times. The decrease in intra-division games next year is to make room for more inter-league games.

I stand corrected. Now if we could just infuse Buxton et al with some Cal Ripken-sequenced DNA, my doom and gloom perspective might lighten to merely gloom!

[bean5302]

3 hours ago, PopRiveter said:

I can’t let this go. I will try hard to be respectful, but I just can’t see this the way you do.

Buxton, Polanco, Kepler, Sano, Kiriloff, and Jeffers all made the opening day roster and all were out hurt. It was painfully obvious that a Plan B lineup was on the field.

First line of defense this year included opening day roster bench players who are now regulars-Arraez (thank God), Gordon & Celestino (both having risen to perform above expectations). These were supposed to be supplemental talent, not the core group.

Then comes the frontline contigency minor league group which was led by Garlick, Miranda, Lewis (out), Larnach (out).

It’s been a lot of blows to the depth of the lineup. Most everyone has lost some time and all the lifelines have been used extensively.

At this point, the attrition has overwhelmed the team. 

Again, this isn’t even touching on the pitching.

Is it an excuse? You can decide that for yourself. 

Is it an inescapable truth? Yup. 100%

Buxton - Will never play a full season in his career. He's going to finish the season with his highest number of games played in the past 5 years. Of course he's been hurt. He'll always be hurt. Always, always. He's produced 4 WAR this year, matching his career best.

Polanco - Will likely qualify for a championship trophy this year (full season) with 120+ games played. It's not like he's missed the season or something. Did it suck to lose him? Sure. It probably cost the Twins 1 win.

Kepler - He's a 2 WAR player. A solid starter, but nothing more. The dropoff for Kepler to Celestino or Garlick isn't that bad. Besides, Kepler is on pace for about 135 games this year. He'll qualify for a full season.

Sano - Is a scrub level player. He's produced 1.0 or more WAR in 1 of his past 5 seasons. Had the Twins not locked him up after 2019, he would have been non-tendered already. It was a blessing Arraez got to start full time at 1st base (where he made the All Star Game). The Twins benefitted at least 4 WAR from Sano not playing 1B this year.

Kirilloff - No defensive value and all the scouting grades and promises in the world can't make up for the fact Kirilloff refuses to take walks leading to a low OBP and he hasn't shown significant power. He was projected at under 1 WAR this year.

Jeffers - Is, at best, neutral compared to Sanchez. It would have been nice to have Jeffers so the Twins weren't playing Sandy Leon, but it's not like the Twins lost much here.

Revisionist history abounds with Lewis. He was not expected to play at the MLB level this year. He was called up because he was (totally unexpectedly) torching AAA pitching. Nobody saw this coming. Lewis holding his own at AAA would have been considered a major achievement, let alone playing well at the MLB level... where he was never going to start more than a handful of games at SS because of Correa anyway. Side note. Had Lewis remained healthy and continued to play well as a utility player, Gordon likely would have been DFA'd or traded.

What does it matter if the Twins are playing guys they didn't expect to be playing if the replacements are just as good, better or almost as good as the intended starters?

The inescapable truth is the Twins roster was utterly log-jammed and there was no space for all these supposed first team guys you've penciled in, but let's go ahead and build this dream roster.
C - Jeffers
1B - Sano (Twins lose 4 WAR)
2B - Polanco (Twins gain 1 WAR)
3B - Urshela (No change)
SS - Correa (No change)
LF - Larnach (No change)
CF - Buxton (Twins gain 3 WAR)*** Buxton playing a full season at CF will never, ever, ever, EVER happen 
RF - Kepler (No change)
DH - Arraez (Twins gain 1.0 WAR)
UI/UO - Lewis
UI/UO - Kirilloff
BC - Sanchez
PH - Miranda
In this scenario, Gordon doesn't play for the Twins, Miranda and Kirilloff are bit players getting only a handful of at bats, Arraez has his value diminished at DH instead of 1B, there's no difference at catcher and Lewis fills Gordon's role as a utility guy. For the regulars, I'm counting the Twins gaining just 1 single WAR. Just 1 win with the dream team vs. what they actually fielded.

The Twins pitchers aren't worth anything. As has been pointed out, the ONLY actual starter who was in the rotation day 1 who is not in the rotation now or won't start at least 25+ games is Ober... a #5 guy. The Twins haven't lost any significant value from the starters.

The Twins bullpen... exactly how much value do people expect from the bullpen. Like seriously? Alcala and Coulumbe were going to transform into something other than middle reliever? What did the Twins lose? 1.0 win? Maybe?