Guardians 4, Twins 1: Guardians Complete Sweep of Twins

[howeda7]

1 hour ago, launchingthrees said:

Lopez really is just not a good pitcher is he? That BABIP regression has been painful to watch.

He might not be good. But his strength is his sinker and since he got here, he's throwing a bunch of breaking balls because that's what Falvine and co. "believe". 

[Danchat]

13 minutes ago, howeda7 said:

I would assume you get nothing from Paddock or Lewis next year. Anything you do get is a bonus. Buxton will never approach 162 games, that's just a reality. 100 is all that's realistic. Kiriloff's seems like he's no better than 50/50 to play in the majors again, from what I've heard. The procedure he had was a last gasp. 

Some better health will help. But this team just isn't that great and I don't see them overtaking Chicago or Cleveland without some significant upgrades. 

Paddack not pitching in 2023 is the most likely result, though it's worth noting that athletes can return from an ACL tear in around 9-10 months, so I wouldn't rule out Lewis being good to go by some point in the first half of the year.

I just have no hope long-term that this team will be able to avoid injuries - both the hitters and pitchers have been constantly plagued by it the past couple years and the minor league system isn't faring a whole lot better.

[milkytoast]

To be fair to Lopez, he got a ground ball that (again) if he didn't touch it, would have been an out. He got a ground ball to first that Miranda misplayed that could have been an out, then he got a ground ball that Palacios misplayed that should have been one, possibly two outs. Lots of bleeders since he has arrived here. He hasn't been impressive, but he has also been very unlucky.

[rv78]

The disappointing part of this season beyond the failure to take control of the division albeit injuries and or poor managing is that they traded away some really good players at the deadline for what? The crap they have now. This FO needs to go along with the entire coaching staff and half the players. Just looking at who they acquired this year alone was a bust. Urshela, G.Sanchez, Archer, Bundy, Paddock, Pagan, Cotton, Fulmer, Lopez, Mahle, A.Sanchez, Leon, B.Hamilton. Not a difference maker in the bunch with Correa being the only new solid player who is really more expensive than what he is worth. The injuries of Maeda, Alcala, Coulombe, Stashak, Ober, Larnach, Kirilloff, Jeffers, Buxton, Polanco made them non factors for parts, if not all of the season. That left Ryan, Gray, Arraez, Miranda, Gordon, Duran, Jax, Thielbar as the only guys you could count on and none of them are stars that can carry the team for any significant length of time. This team needs lots of help and changing personnel from top to bottom is the only way they will ever become a serious "Contender" if they ever reach the playoffs again.

[bean5302]

I have no blame for the Pohlad family this year. They're on target for a $145MM payroll in 2022, smashing their previous record payroll and sitting right in the middle of MLB where they should be. As far as wanting owners to be more involved, that's generally a terrible idea. When business owners decide they know more about how to run a baseball team than experts in the baseball field, bad things happen. The Angels and Art Moreno are a perfect example.

This season falls squarely on Derek Falvey. He asked the Pohlads to open up the wallet after massive losses in 2020 and a maybe break even 2021 and the Pohlads did it. Falvey and Levine saw a team and fanbase stunned by Wes Johnson's departure mid-season in favor of college baseball and again watched the players fall apart on the field after signing, trading for and extending a plethora of injury prone players. Fans watched as the front office implemented it's hard core TTO starter strategy which has been criticized by players and fans alike, with the quick hook from Baldelli frequently raising eyebrows. Furthermore, the farm system rank has cratered as the best prospects stumbled badly and were traded away. If it weren't for the saving grace which was the gift of Brooks Lee dropping to the Twins in the draft and the subsequent performance, the farm would look much worse.

There's still time for the Twins to turn it around, but it's looking pretty bad about now. The question I have is how long is Falvey's leash should the Twins miss the playoffs? The Twins are going to lose money this year if they don't make the postseason, and right now, the team is under .500 and dropping fast. The starter strategy and pitching roster has been a bust. 

[Swing Batter-Batter]

13 hours ago, jkcarew said:

It’s frustrating watching this short-handed lineup, but it could be worse. Just think where we’d be without Fullmer, Mahle, and Lopez. No, wait.

I find myself imaging where we would be without Rocco. My guess 8 games over .500. 

[MABB1959]

13 hours ago, howeda7 said:

Their payroll is appropriate for their market size and is not the issue. How the payroll is deployed is. Every year that Falvey remains in charge is wasted. They will never win a WS with him IMO. 

I would disagree.  We have one player in the top 100 salary wise.  Correa at #7 and then all the way down to #105 overall and 35th counting just pitchers with Sonny Gray.   I really think they need to pay for a top starter 1-2 and a top DH.  Hopefully Correa will be here next year but if not they better make a big signing.  I don't understand why MN is considered mid or small market.  We have one team and fans most likely from 3-4 states.   If they fielded a top team their ticket sales would increase.  The other issue is most people not being able to watch them on TV.  They receive 268,000,000 in TV Revenue why not spend most of that on payroll?  Doesn't matter anyway they are not going to change.  

[wabene]

13 hours ago, Blyleven2011 said:

 one thing I have noticed lately on the game day threads ...

The number of comments is below 150 ,,,

is that because it is football season  or because the twins are playing awful baseball  ...

I would say there is another reason not mentioned and leave it at that. 

[roger]

11 hours ago, howeda7 said:

I would assume you get nothing from Paddock or Lewis next year. Anything you do get is a bonus. Buxton will never approach 162 games, that's just a reality. 100 is all that's realistic. Kiriloff's seems like he's no better than 50/50 to play in the majors again, from what I've heard. The procedure he had was a last gasp. 

Some better health will help. But this team just isn't that great and I don't see them overtaking Chicago or Cleveland without some significant upgrades. 

Curious what you heard about AK?  I have seen nothing at any blog nor in the Strib?  Will disagree as I see this team as being good, with reasonable health.  And yes, I expect Paddack to be back by the trade deadline and Lewis to be on the field by June 1, playing like he did briefly this year.

[David Maro]

Would any other manager in baseball PH Palacios for Cave in a scoring opportunity. I know Cave has his issues,but he does have his moments as well. I believe the injury problem this team has maybe in the medical and training staff. Polhad needs to clean house at season end. The game will be back to the game we all grew up with next year. You won't have 5 or 6 hitters in the lineup hitting under .220. The 2nd baseman won't be playing like a 10th player in a softball game in the outfield.

[bean5302]

1 hour ago, MABB1959 said:

I would disagree.  We have one player in the top 100 salary wise.  Correa at #7 and then all the way down to #105 overall and 35th counting just pitchers with Sonny Gray.   I really think they need to pay for a top starter 1-2 and a top DH.  Hopefully Correa will be here next year but if not they better make a big signing.  I don't understand why MN is considered mid or small market.  We have one team and fans most likely from 3-4 states.   If they fielded a top team their ticket sales would increase.  The other issue is most people not being able to watch them on TV.  They receive 268,000,000 in TV Revenue why not spend most of that on payroll?  Doesn't matter anyway they are not going to change.  

Where in the world did you get 268MM? That's more than the Dodgers (who gamed the system an angered the rest of MLB owners) get. The Twins have one of the lowest TV revenue contracts in MLB right now. The Twins estimated contract is 12years $480MM or $42MM per season.
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/lets-update-the-estimated-local-tv-revenue-for-mlb-teams/

The Twins rank 16th in MLB total payroll.
https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/payroll/

The Twins' revenues would definitely increase if they went deep into the playoffs, but considering I'd expect them to be losing money this year based on attendance and increased spending. Arguing top 100 payrolls isn't realistic. The fact the Twins have a guy on the payroll at #7 (#6 for players who haven't been suspended all year) suggests they've been willing to spend like a big market team. NYC, LA, LA, NYC, NYC, LA, MN, DC, StL, NYC. Those are the top 10 player salary team locations. Minnesota and St. Louis are outliers...

[bean5302]

1 hour ago, roger said:

Curious what you heard about AK?...

His cartilage is gone between bones in his wrist. Grinding down bones to make them shorter does seem like a very extreme treatment for wrist pain, and it was a procedure everybody wanted to avoid. I don't know about the 50/50 for him returning to baseball, but returning to baseball, pain free seems like it's a valid concern in my uneducated opinion. Also, Kirilloff is only 24 and his wrist is already apparently worn out. Even with more space, what can be done about the worn out cartilage? Seems like the kind of issue you'd expect to see in a 35 year old with a fix that could give them a couple more years till the end of their career, not the kind of fix you'd expect to give a player a full career.

So for me, I haven't heard anything except the procedure is extreme and something everybody wanted to avoid (last resort).

[insagt1]

39 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

His cartilage is gone between bones in his wrist. Grinding down bones to make them shorter does seem like a very extreme treatment for wrist pain, and it was a procedure everybody wanted to avoid. I don't know about the 50/50 for him returning to baseball, but returning to baseball, pain free seems like it's a valid concern in my uneducated opinion. Also, Kirilloff is only 24 and his wrist is already apparently worn out. Even with more space, what can be done about the worn out cartilage? Seems like the kind of issue you'd expect to see in a 35 year old with a fix that could give them a couple more years till the end of their career, not the kind of fix you'd expect to give a player a full career.

So for me, I haven't heard anything except the procedure is extreme and something everybody wanted to avoid (last resort).

Once Bobby Orr's cartilage was worn out in his knees, he was all done, at a pretty young age. there was no fix. AK may be in that same boat.

As for Buxton, so many 'parts' of his body are damaged that its like a game of 'whack-a-mole' with him. You fix one thing and another injury just pops up. It wouldn't surprise me if we have seen the best of him. He plays all out. His body won't allow that. Its a shame we can't see that 5 tool player showcase his talents completely. He tried playing hurt this season and save a few dingers, it just didn't work. He was actually a liability at the plate most nights. Thats not what he wants and it isn't what the Twins want.

[MABB1959]

1 hour ago, bean5302 said:

Where in the world did you get 268MM? That's more than the Dodgers (who gamed the system an angered the rest of MLB owners) get. The Twins have one of the lowest TV revenue contracts in MLB right now. The Twins estimated contract is 12years $480MM or $42MM per season.

Got it here.  Looks like it is total revenue but I could be way off.

 

• Minnesota Twins revenue 2021 | Statista

[KnoblauchWasFramed]

"Winder only made two mistakes with two home runs surrendered but only allowed two additional hits and a walk on 67 pitches.  It is not a surprise that Rocco Baldelli pulled Winder after four innings, but only two runs were surrendered on solo homers, one has to wonder why they couldn’t have let him go one more inning."

The team are about to get swept by the Guardians, a team that was so clearly not trying to compete this year that they made no major free agent signings and added no players at the trade deadline.  And yet here we have Rocco still trying to force his BS game plan that has failed and failed and failed over and over again. 

Remember the days when someone like Winder or Varland would come up for a spot start and the manager would throw him out there to eat up a game's worth of innings so that the bullpen can also get some extra rest.  And sometimes that spot starter would get blown up and give up 6 runs over 6-7 innings, but it didn't really matter because they were getting sent right back down the next day.  Or, in some cases they would pitch a great game and would get into the 7-8th inning and give something for the Manager and FO to think about with this prospect's future.  But not Rocco - both guys come up and out perform the rest of the entire rotation and Rocco still goes to The Spreadsheet and see that it tells him that they must get pulled out of the game before the order recycles for the 3rd time IMMEDIATELY AND WITHOUT CONSIDERATION.  

Rocco has had his chance to show that his new-age analytics-only method was the wave of the future.  And time and time again he has failed with it.  He has shown that he either refuses, or worse, in incapable of putting The Spreadsheet down and watching the flow and swing of the game and then make decisions based off of that day's outcomes.  And because of this, he should not be in control of this team next year.  

[bean5302]

42 minutes ago, MABB1959 said:

Got it here.  Looks like it is total revenue but I could be way off.

 

• Minnesota Twins revenue 2021 | Statista

Yep. $268MM is total revenue. TV revenues made up about $42MM of that. Operating costs are generally about 50% of all revenue which puts maximum MLB team payroll at $134MM before the team would potentially start losing money. The Twins are at $145MM of MLB team payroll this year.

[MABB1959]

3 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Yep. $268MM is total revenue. TV revenues made up about $42MM of that. Operating costs are generally about 50% of all revenue which puts maximum MLB team payroll at $134MM before the team would potentially start losing money. The Twins are at $145MM of MLB team payroll this year.

wouldn't payroll be a part Operating Costs?

[bean5302]

32 minutes ago, MABB1959 said:

wouldn't payroll be a part Operating Costs?

Non-player operating costs. Players and the league are close to a 50/50 revenue split. 

https://www.forbes.com/teams/minnesota-twins/?sh=2cb962033bae has the Twins at a $10MM operating income (profit) last year with a payroll $20MM lower. Attendance is up (full season), but so are expenses. Tough to say, but it wouldn't surprise me if the Twins lost money this year if they miss the playoffs.

The bottom line is there isn't a lot of money left in revenue stream for the Twins to further expand the team payroll and break even or earn a profit. The Pohald's are spending "enough" this year, but they're definitely not the ownership group which will run the team long term with an operating loss. Speaking of losses, the Twins ran a net loss of an estimated ($49MM) in 2020. They made $10MM last year and this year they'll be lucky to break even. As a season ticket holder, I was surprised and impressed the Pohlads spent big money on Correa and pushed revenue up this year. Jim Pohlad is on record talking about how the previous year's profits and revenues are the driving force behind the target budget for the coming year and he stepped way outside that comfort zone. Basically, what I'm saying is the ownership group were as aggressive this year as one could honestly hope for them to be. They really made a bit of a leap of faith, especially given the long lockout, low season ticket holder numbers and a bottom AL Central finish in 2021.

[howeda7]

On 9/12/2022 at 8:30 AM, roger said:

Curious what you heard about AK?  I have seen nothing at any blog nor in the Strib?  Will disagree as I see this team as being good, with reasonable health.  And yes, I expect Paddack to be back by the trade deadline and Lewis to be on the field by June 1, playing like he did briefly this year.

On AK, just that this procedure is extreme and has very little track record to go off of. 

Paddock may be back in time to make 10 starts or so. But how effective will he be? You can have to plan 2023 disregarding him as a factor.