Twins 4, Guardians 6: Another Late-Inning Rally Falls Short

[Sherry Cerny]

The Twins and Guardians meet in Game 2 of their three-game series. A late-inning rally last night on Friday night was not enough to overcome the pitching woes early in the game.  From the first pitch on Saturday night, it felt like Groundhogs day, as the Twins fell short despite another late-inning rally. 

Image courtesy of Bruce Kluckhorn, USA Today

 

Box Score
SP: Chris Archer 2 IP, 2 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 1 K (40 pitches, 24 strikes (60%))
Home Runs: no one
Bottom 3 WPA:  Max Kepler (-.160), Cole Sands (-.151), Chris Archer (-.130)
Win Probability Chart (via FanGraphs)

Groundhogs Day on the Mound
Chris Archer started for the Twins. Two batters into the game, a walk, and a home run from Amed Rosario, the Guardians were ahead 2-0. 

Archer has rarely completed five innings in a start. Tonight was his shortest start of the year. He pitched just two innings in this game before leaving the game. He was replaced at the top of the third by Cole Sands. 

Sands just returned from the IL and appeared rushed, unsettled and uncomfortable trying to find the strike zone. In the third inning, his pitches continued to drift out of the strike zone. He walked three and hit two batters to give the Guardians two runs and push the score 4-0. Sands did pitch into the sixth inning and gave up just one more run in his 3 1/3 innings.

Pagan and the Bullpen Keep Twins in Games
The bullpen continues to step up and set the tone for damage control and give the offense a chance to catch up. Emilio Pagan, who has been known for blowing saves, but he has been absolutely on fire of late. In his past six games, Pagan has a 2.57 ERA, only five hits, and two runs. It is a massive improvement to his earlier season stats. 

When the starters have been giving up runs early, the bullpen has come in and kept the runs from accumulating. Pete Maki has taken over in the interim as the Pitching Coach, bringing Colby Suggs in as the bullpen coach. Suggs was the run-prevention coordinator, and it seems that his expertise in understanding run defense may be aiding the bullpen. Since Suggs has taken the helm of the bullpen on July 1, it's taken a bit to catch a rhythm, but his techniques seem to be doing the trick. Suggs, certainly understands and pays attention to mechanics and maybe his personality is just what the bullpen needed. 

New Rules, New…Kepler?
MLB has implemented new rules to take place starting in the 2023 season. One of those rules will be not being able to utilize the shift. There must now be two players on either side of second base when the pitch is released, and all four infielders must be inside the infield dirt when the pitcher is on the rubber. No one is probably more relieved about the change to the rule than our own Max Kepler who is extremely well known for hitting into the shift. Tonight, two hits from Kepler were into the shift and the last drive was stopped by acrobatic magic from Andres Gimenez, who was posted far into right field. 

Kepler has had a great year defensively, but offensively, it’s been one of his worst seasons. Having to recover from Covid in 2021 and a broken toe this season seems to have compounded. Kepler has had a below-normal batting average (.230) than previous seasons. Kepler has been out recently with a hip injury as well. Later in the game, he was robbed of a home run by a leaping Will Benson in left field. 

Luis Arraez had two doubles tonight, and three hits. It was his 43rd game this season with more than one hit. Arraez and Carlos Correa have been absolutely dominant the past few games, the downfall has been others in the lineup. Twice on Saturday night, Arraez was stranded on base, along with Correa with the guys unable to string together any hits going scoreless until the bottom of the ninth.

Just when the collective thought the game was over, veteran Bryan Shaw started handing out hits in the ninth inning, and the Twins came alive. Gio Urshela tagged in on a sacrifice fly from Gary Sanchez to put the Twins on the board, and Jake Cave drove a double into left-centerfield which scored Kyle Garlick with two outs. The Twins offense continued to work Shaw with a rip to right field from Arraez, which scored Cave to push the score 6-3.

At that point, Terry Francona came in to make a pitching change. The Twins had forced Emmanuel Clase to come into the game. Clase is a strong closer, but he was not expecting to come in at all. He allowed a run right away when Correa grounded weakly to third base and a bad throw allowed Arraez to score all the way from first. Jose Miranda followed with a line drive single that sent Correa to third base.

The intensity rose as Clase as Kepler came up to hit, and after hitting into the shift all night, he hit a hard ground ball to third base (the only defender on the left side of the infield) to end the game. 

The Twins have their final game of this series with Cleveland on Sunday afternoon. Can the Twins find a way to eek out a win?  

Do you think there is time to save the season and reach the postseason? Am I a hopeless romantic baseball fan? Let me know in the comments!

Pitching Preview Match-Up Cleveland Series: 
Sunday 1:10pm CST: TBD vs. RHP Shane Bieber (9-8, 2.96 ERA)

Post Game Interview
Coming soon.

Bullpen Usage Spreadsheet

 

 

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[Peter]

Unacceptable losses at home!!! Especially with season on the line-need to win tomorrow as well sweep next week!

[tony&rodney]

Winder goes tomorrow and Varland versus KC with Polanco coming back. It's getting late.

[KirbyDome89]

Pagan came in and immediately surrendered a single, a double, and then a ground ball to score a run, but yeah, en fuego...

[Danchat]

This offense is suddenly good at scoring garbage time runs - what, is Cleveland playing prevent defense or something?

[Blyleven2011]

If I am surprised at the end  of the season so be it  ...

I personally think we have no chance  ....

Couldn't beat , Chicago  , Couldn't split with yankees  and now we can't beat Cleveland  ....

You have to win some games to have hope and we haven't won enough games....

[ashbury]

Reliable sources tell us that Cleveland is offering to pay the 2023 options/salaries for both Bundy and Archer. 

To stay with the Twins another season.

[D.C Twins]

Well... that turned out to be fast end to the central division 'race' for the Twins....

If the Twins realized that their stretch run was going to be so short, do you think they would have run harder?

[solomon1930]

47 minutes ago, Blyleven2011 said:

If I am surprised at the end  of the season so be it  ...

I personally think we have no chance  ....

Couldn't beat , Chicago  , Couldn't split with yankees  and now we can't beat Cleveland  ....

You have to win some games to have hope and we haven't won enough games....

5 games in Cleveland next weekend so yes there are plenty of games.

[AlwaysinModeration]

.500

[mikelink45]

3 hours ago, KirbyDome89 said:

Pagan came in and immediately surrendered a single, a double, and then a ground ball to score a run, but yeah, en fuego...

That was my take too. I can't figure out how he gets credit for a job after he starts out like that. I still don't trust him

[mikelink45]

We have gone from trying to win the division to trying to stay above 500. The real question is can we do it

[Rik19753]

The season is all but over now. I'm disappointed, but not surprised.

 

Great timing for the NFL to start though. These losses made my transition from baseball season to football season a lot easier.

[h2oface]

and Joe Maddon is still available..........

[Nine of twelve]

It's just not going to happen for us this year, is it?

[rwilfong86]

4 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

We have gone from trying to win the division to trying to stay above 500. The real question is can we do it

I'm guessing somewhere around 78-84 to 80-82. 

[rwilfong86]

8 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

Winder goes tomorrow and Varland versus KC with Polanco coming back. It's getting late.

It's too late. 

[JD-TWINS]

1 hour ago, h2oface said:

and Joe Maddon is still available..........

Remember, Joe started the analytics drive in Tampa and that seems to be a big part of the fan base disappointment with Baldelli. Rocco can’t bat for Keppler & Polanco nor can he pitch for Duffey, Pagan, nor J. Smith……..nor our recently acquired closer, Mr Lopez….. Neither can Joe Madden.

[rv78]

"Kepler has had a below-normal batting average (.230) than previous seasons."

Sorry but not correct. This is not below average for him. His batting averages over his career have been .143, .235, 243, 224, 252, 228, 211, and this year .230. Collectively he is hitting .233. It is normal for him. Be it bad luck or not being smart enough to adjust to a shift he has become the new Sano when it's time to kill a rally and the brilliant Rocco who supposedly goes by the numbers ignores his ineptitude and continues to bat him in the middle of the lineup. 

[JD-TWINS]

5 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

That was my take too. I can't figure out how he gets credit for a job after he starts out like that. I still don't trust him

Can’t believe that after the Athletic article 3-4 weeks ago statistically/factually proving he’s been the worst reliever in baseball over the past 3 years that Pagan hasn’t been DFA’d to make room for anyone else!!! 97mph occasionally - nice spin rate - MIDDLE/MIDDLE about every 6 or 7 pitches.

[JD-TWINS]

1 hour ago, Nine of twelve said:

It's just not going to happen for us this year, is it?

Today a win is needed & then 3 of 5 in Cleveland as well. Both doable. That gets us to 1.5 back. A chance, but the reality has dropped to maybe 33%?

[Game7-91]

50 minutes ago, rwilfong86 said:

It's too late. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Dave The Dastardly]

9 minutes ago, Game7-91 said:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Whitey333]

It's done.  Yes we still have plenty of games left with Cleveland and Chicago.  But you have to be able to win those games.  This team has shown very little inclination of putting it all together.  There has been no fight in this team for several weeks.  Why would we expect it to change now?

[DKrz56]

6 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

We have gone from trying to win the division to trying to stay above 500. The real question is can we do it

Well that is essentially the same thing....

 

[TwinsDr2021]

9 minutes ago, Whitey333 said:

It's done.  Yes we still have plenty of games left with Cleveland and Chicago.  But you have to be able to win those games.  This team has shown very little inclination of putting it all together.  There has been no fight in this team for several weeks.  Why would we expect it to change now?

I agree, they still have Archer/Bundy/three rookies and Gray as their starting pitchers, generally not a good sign.

[Game7-91]

27 minutes ago, Dave The Dastardly said:

 

Dandy Don Meredith!

[Karbo]

1 hour ago, JD-TWINS said:

Remember, Joe started the analytics drive in Tampa and that seems to be a big part of the fan base disappointment with Baldelli. Rocco can’t bat for Keppler & Polanco nor can he pitch for Duffey, Pagan, nor J. Smith……..nor our recently acquired closer, Mr Lopez….. Neither can Joe Madden.

You are correct, Madden did lead the way in analytics. However, recently in an article on the Athletic he says its gone to far. At this point I think there is a lot of people that would be a better manager than Rocco.

[Game7-91]

21 minutes ago, Whitey333 said:

There has been no fight in this team for several weeks.  Why would we expect it to change now?

I would say they are trying, the last 2 nights they didnt fold after getting behind. Admittedly, Clev hasnt exactly put the foot on the throat with the lead either. Maybe its a matter of who plays less worse?

What can be said when the starting OF in the stretch run is Garlick, Cave, and Gordon?  Too many AAAA guys, too much under-performance from ML guys, too many injuries....theyre still trying, but theyre just not good enough, The biggest highlight of Sep will end up being Arraez breaking up the no-no....clutch!

I had them finishing 4th when season started. From that perspective, they have over-achieved. Its just not saying much given the division.

 

[TopGunn#22]

We are sinking like a stone.  2-8 in our last 10 games and it's a team wide collapse.  There are enough games left with the Guardians and White Sox to pull this out, but unfortunately there are no indications that this is even remotely possible.  

We ARE seeing Correa shine brighter down the stretch, but it probably won't be enough.  Would love to have some kind of certainty that he will be back next year, but it's a complete unknown.  Let the NFL begin with Vikings vs Packers.