Twins Tidbit: Results Against the Best Teams in the League

[TwinsData]

There are five major league teams on pace 95 wins or more. Now that the Twins have wrapped up all their games against the power five, how did they fare? Really not good.

Image courtesy of TwinsData

The above graph plots the results for every major league team against the five opponents currently on pace for more than 95 wins: Yankees, Astros, Dodgers, Braves, and Mets. The x-axis is win percentage in those games and the y-axis is run difference per game. A few notes:

• The Twins were far and away the worst team in the league against this set of teams with a 0.11 win percentage, going 2-16. Those losses were well-earned, with an average run difference of -3.67.
• In-division foes Detroit, Cleveland, Kansas City, and the White Sox will have played an almost identical schedule to the Twins, so comparisons between them are particularly appropriate. Even the lowly Tigers and gutted Royals have outperformed the Twins against the class of the league.
• The Twins' current deficit in the division can be attributed to their performance in these games. By contrast to the Twins' 2-16, the Guardians are a respectable 6-10 and the White Sox are 7-10. A similar performance from the hometown nine would have the Twins comfortably in first place in the AL Central.

Luckily, none of the power five are divisional foes, so the Twins will still have a chance to squeak into the playoffs. We are all hoping for another shot at the Yankees or Astros in October. Right?

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[Nashvilletwin]

Perhaps the best stat posted all year to demonstrate why this team really is not as good as we all hoped/thought they were. You want to actually win the Pennant, let alone the World Series? Well, you’d better figure out how to beat the best teams more consistently. 

Sure, the power 5 are comprised mostly of the biggest spenders, but we are being outperformed by every single team.  This destroys the old, lame excuse “well, we don’t spend enough and those teams have an unfair advantage because they have bigger markets and better owners”.

Nope - our pathetic record against the best teams is about leadership, culture, confidence, and getting the most out of your players,  Our players are plenty good enough to be much more competitive against these teams.

I sure hope the Pohlads read the TD.

[mikelink45]

Nicely done.  This really does show our ineptitude against class teams.  But the fact our division mates can do so much better really raises the question of why?  

We know the Yankees have a psychological edge over us, but the Dodgers and Astros do lose periodically. 

Is there something management can do?  

We won the last game with Garlick leading off while in a slump, Correa at DH instead of the field, No Arraez. Lopez doing his meltdown act, Fulmer being mediocre. And we won.  Maybe the scrubs are the answer.  Sit the regulars and let the guys who are desperate to survive play.  (Just kidding).  

[insagt1]

Twins really did try and give last nights game away, and I thought for sure they would. Who wouldn't, after ex-Twin and having a miserable season Aaron Hicks hits a two strike double in the 9th? Hard to picture that win being a momentum builder, given the current lineup and the many mental mistakes. But it was an important win and now they have to dig deep to try and figure things out....fast. Their inability to compete against the 'best' is pretty sad.

[chpettit19]

Yikes.

[Nashvilletwin]

…..and we wonder why we haven’t won a playoff game in forever….

[RpR]

This is the one reason that exposes there is some thing wrong, ever since TK left. with the way the team is managed.

I could see all year long that other teams were defeating, including shut-outs of the best teams in the league and the Twins, often, would pee games away in the last three innings, while their offense shut down after the first five.

[mnfireman]

32-43 overall against team with .500 or better winning % is probably an even bigger tell. As well as 8-12 (2-11 vs LA, MIL, AZ & SD) in interleague games and 12-17 vs the AL West (2-11 vs HOU & TEX). The Twins are 10.5 games worse than Cleveland in these 3 categories.

They are 12-12 against CLE & CHW, despite how much worse its seems.

[FlyingFinn]

This team was built to win against great teams more with hitting than dominant pitching. Who did we expect in the lineup but isn't there right now - Buxton, Kirilloff, Larnach, Polanco, and Jeffers. I realize they haven't been gone all year but, even when playing in the middle of the year, each of them tried to play with significant injuries except Jeffers. We should be saying how great Gordon is doing batting 7th in the lineup. Instead, we are amazed he is doing a decent job as our cleanup hitter. 

If Tommy Watkins didn't pull his boneheaded go and stop sign for Celestino in the extra inning game against the Yanks, the Twins would have split the series with them IMO. 

If we make the playoffs, we aren't likely to win much of anything in the playoffs as we are overmatched against the top tier teams but baseball is a funny game.

One final thought - this must mean that we significantly outperform our division foes against non Tier 1 teams.......... What does that say about the Guardians and White Sox?

[jccracraft]

If Tommy Watkins didn't pull his boneheaded go and stop sign for Celestino in the extra inning game against the Yanks, the Twins would have split the series with them IMO. 

I was at the game, which was sparsely attended due to it being a 3:05 make-up game in New York. We were able to get good seats right behind the Twins dugout. I'm embarrassed to admit that I absolutely lost it yelling at Watkins, which the whole team and area heard. Sending a guy on a short single to RF with no outs was a debacle. Out by a mile. Exact same situation for the Yankees in the 12th, and they held the guy at 3rd. Needless to say their strategy worked out better.

 

[bean5302]

Offf... great article with a painful reality. No team is as bad as the Twins have played against good teams. That's a big problem. Statistically, it's not possible for Minnesota to play like this on talent alone, which means the issue is probably less with the players and more with management and philosophy.

[Game7-91]

This and 0-18 should be a 10 alarm raging fire call-to- action at the top of Twins' org chart. Names and seasons change, and results are consistent beyond random variance. They need a different plan. The "little engine that could" type of roster construction has failed, over and over, against the big boys. Ergo, it doesnt work. This should be a stick-head-in-sand embarrassment for all involved. Its pathetic.

[DocBauer]

What frustrates me the most, while acknowledging the OP and the horrible record presented there, is the losses against teams like the recent Texas series, at HOME, against a team no better than us, and probably not as good.

I can accept an IL that you could almost build a team with. I can accept losing to the top teams in MLB and needing to improve to have a chance against them. But I am very frustrated by the number of losses against the teams we are as good as or better than. If we had just taken care of business against those teams, Cleveland included, we're in 1st place in the ALC right now.

And I'm more frustrated about thus at the moment.

 

[Mike Sixel]

Fangraphs just did a study on this. What matters is your overall record. You are no more likely to win or lose in the post season if you were better or worse against the best teams.

[bean5302]

5 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

Fangraphs just did a study on this. What matters is your overall record. You are no more likely to win or lose in the post season if you were better or worse against the best teams.

Gotta make it to the post season first, but yeah, I don't know if the general rules apply to this Twins team either. Their futility against the good teams isn't part of a normal dataset.

[Mike Sixel]

10 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Gotta make it to the post season first, but yeah, I don't know if the general rules apply to this Twins team either. Their futility against the good teams isn't part of a normal dataset.

I admit to agreeing with you here. But then, they would be vast underdogs because of their record anyway. 

[twinstalker]

I'm not sure why two axes were needed to display this.  We know record is related to run differential.