Is Joe Ryan Who We Thought He Was?

[h2oface]

5 hours ago, Alex Schieferdecker said:

He's always looked like a good #3-4 starter. He doesn't have the stuff of a #1/#2 guy. There's nothing wrong with that, He's extremely valuable to the Twins.

Exactly what I always thought he was and will be. I think next year will be better, and more consistent. I think he will find an out pitch. 

Many fans were/are so desperate for an ace, that whoever seems like the best we have, even if they are really a #3, (like Maeda, and his hot 6 weeks, too), that they want to assign that to our best at the time. Nope. Not me. Aces need no apologists and creative positioning. They slap you in the face with greatness.

[h2oface]

This expectation of Mahle/Maeda/Gray leading the rotatation followed by Ryan is surely a hope that should not be plan A. Ryan is there, but two of the other three are total questions, and Paddack is too.

I think Mahle will undergo TOS surgery, and we may not see him at all. If he does come back this year, he will see the same results as the last two starts. Sad, but that is my prediction. I think the trade will prove a total bust and Mahle was damaged as he was acquired. Like Paddack, the FO had decided he was the middle of the road pitcher that had spin rates they liked as is their formula, and did the deal even though he was in question as they did the deal. The desperate position the team was in beause of a lack of supplying quality pitching in the off season even though it was clear that was the most urgent need. Both of Mahle and Paddack. History was known, and desregarded or determined OK for the future, even if they were lost for a year and couldn't help now as was the immediate need. Mahle's case is the most concerning, as he says he feels fine, but cannot perform. To pencil him in at all is nuts. He should only be considered depth at this point, and in any decisions to create a starting staff for 2023. We will prove to be fleeced once again.

Just a prediction. I hope they all both become of value, because so far........ total bust, and we needed them now,

Madea coming back from TJ..... also in question but more expected.

[rwilfong86]

If my memory serves me correct, I think his struggles began after getting covid. I wonder if he still has some lingering issues from that.

[LA VIkes Fan]

I think we should avoid a rush to judgment on Ryan. He has been quite good in this hi rookie year and is showing us a floor of a solid #3/strong #4 starter. Not a bad return for 2 months of a declining Nelson Cruz. Typically pitchers develop up over their first 2 years of MLB starting work. He needs to improve his command of his breaking pitches but that is the classic kind of thing that occurs over time.  I see a real possibility of him becoming as much as a solid #2 in the future, barring injury. 

[KirbyDome89]

5 hours ago, gunnarthor said:

This, exactly. He's a solid ML back of the rotation pitcher. I think he could pitch a little longer but what we have now (at age 26) is probably enough to know. Over a full healthy season, we can expect 30 or so starts, 160-170ip, with an ERA+ around close to 100. That's close enough to be a 2 WAR player.

The Twins have had a ton of solid, back of the rotation pitchers over the years. I also wouldn't be surprised if he goes the Swarzak/Duensing route and becomes a long reliever in the next few years.

But this is what he is and is pretty much in line with the realistic scouting reports. He's not going to be Jose Berrios but he can be useful. 

@Vanimal46posted a pretty discouraging Ryan split the other night in the game thread. Rookie lumps are a thing, but he needs to figure out a least one reliable secondary pitch because he can't navigate even decent lineups only throwing his FB. 

[dxpavelka]

Wait.  You're telling me that hitters have more success against one of a pitcher's secondary pitches than against his best pitch?  Shocking.

[bean5302]

I wish fans would appreciate what Ryan is instead of setting an impossible bar for him to reach as an unreasonable expectation.

He's an MLB caliber starting pitcher right now. That's pretty outstanding considering what he's had to do to prove he could hold his own with the tools he has to work with.

[Aerodeliria]

He's a rookie. He'll get better.

[nclahammer]

Joe Ryan will always be compared to Jose Berrios because that is who he was traded for.  When you compare their stats this year, I'll take Ryan and the money we saved.

[DJL44]

5 hours ago, Aerodeliria said:

He's a rookie. He'll get better.

Or he'll get hurt. One or the other.

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, nclahammer said:

Joe Ryan will always be compared to Jose Berrios because that is who he was traded for. 

Nelson Cruz was traded for Joe Ryan, not Berrios. Simeon Woods-Richardson was the pitcher they got for Berrios and he looks really promising.

[ashbury]

3 hours ago, DJL44 said:

Or he'll get hurt. One or the other.

Or he'll muddle along.

[jorgenswest]

I think he has outperformed who I thought he was. I was hoping for a reliable number 4 starter but he has been better. He was not a global top 100 prospect. He is fastball heavy starter whose delivery and mix were compared to Yusmeiro Petit and Ben Lively. I am now hopeful he will remain as a mid rotation starter.

[rv78]

Is Sano or Kepler or Buxton or Kirilloff or Larnach or Jeffers or Alcala or Ober or Paddock or Mahle or Lewis or 9 out of 10 other players who we thought they would be? Expectations and reality very rarely coincide.

Arraez loks good, Miranda looks good, Gordon looks good, Duran looks better than what we thought he was however he was suppose to be a starter, not a bullpen bulldog. Will the Twins ever give him a chance to be a starter again. I would bet against it. He could be the ACE they have been craving since the departure of Johan Santana. They won't ever move him back to the rotation. That's why this organization flounders more than it flourishes, they have tunnel vision. Go for the cheap, the lightning in a bottle, the hope and a prayer, and once a pitcher flourishes in the bullpen he can never be a starter.