Analyzing Minnesota’s Trend of Acquiring Potentially Injured Pitchers

[Cody Christie]

Under the current regime, Minnesota has acquired multiple pitchers that have suffered an injury after being acquired. Is this bad luck, or is this something the front office can avoid in the future?

Image courtesy of Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports

Many teams struggled to find enough pitching to make it through the season, and the Twins are no stranger to this problem. Minnesota has been in the middle of a winning window over the last four seasons, requiring the front office to be active in the trade market. Unfortunately, multiple pitchers acquired by the team have ended up dealing with injuries after being acquired. Is this something the team can avoid?

Sam Dyson, RP
Acquired: 2019 Trade Deadline from the Giants
Minnesota’s line-up was firing on all cylinders during the 2019 season, and the team looked to bolster the Bomba Squad at the trade deadline. Minnesota traded for relievers Sam Dyson and Sergio Romo, but Dyson’s Twins tenure was short-lived. He allowed nine earned runs in 11 1/3 innings while also making multiple trips to the IL. Eventually, he revealed that he had been pitching through shoulder discomfort for multiple weeks. The Twins eventually investigated if the Giants knew anything about his injury before the trade. There were no signs of his injury or poor performance before the trade, so this deal looks like bad luck for the Twins. 

Kenta Maeda, SP
Acquired: Before the 2020 Season from the Dodgers
The Twins were looking to build off the 2019 season, and acquiring Maeda helped to put them back in contention for 2020. His first season in Minnesota couldn’t have gone much better as he posted a 2.70 ERA while leading baseball with a 0.75 WHIP. Maeda’s second season in Minnesota didn’t go as smoothly as his ERA rose to 4.66, and he eventually needed to undergo Tommy John surgery. There were some concerns with Maeda’s elbow when he originally signed with the Dodgers, and that’s why Los Angeles was able to sign him to a team-friendly deal. He pitched over 760 innings before needing Tommy John surgery, so it doesn’t seem like the Twins should have noticed this red flag. 

Chris Paddack, SP
Acquired: Before the 2022 Season from the Padres
The trade that brought Paddack to Minnesota will be discussed for quite some time. In the end, both teams aren’t happy with the results, with all players struggling or dealing with an injury. One of the reasons the Twins were able to acquire Paddack was because of some of his lingering injury concerns. As a prospect in the Padres system, Paddack underwent Tommy John surgery, and his 2021 season ended after he sprained his UCL last September. It was a tough blow for Minnesota because of how well he’d pitched in 2022, but it wasn’t much of a surprise that his season ended with a second Tommy John procedure. 

Tyler Mahle, SP
Acquired: 2022 Trade Deadline from the Reds
Mahle was arguably Minnesota’s most prominent trade deadline acquisition, but he hasn’t been able to stay on the field. He has struggled with velocity in his last two starts, which have required stints on the injured list. Now there is no guarantee he will be able to help the team for their most important games in September. Before the trade deadline, Mahle had been on the injured list because of his shoulder, but he had returned and pitched well. Even in 2021, Mahle led all of baseball with 33 games started, so he has been a consistent starter for multiple seasons. His injuries can be even more frustrating when looking at the other names mentioned above. 

Derek Falvey and Thad Levine are forced to be creative when it comes to making baseball decisions. They aren’t going to surrender the prospect capital needed to acquire a top-tier pitcher because of the long-term ramifications of emptying a farm system. This forces the team to examine trades for players with flaws, including previous injury concerns. Nearly every MLB pitcher deals with injuries at some point in their career, so Minnesota has gotten unlucky with some players mentioned above. In retrospect, Dyson’s deal looks the worst, but the other three pitchers have the potential to impact the 2023 Twins.

Do you think the Twins can avoid these types of pitchers in the future? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. 

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[Mark G]

The common thread in the article seems to be that we had knowledge of some issues in almost all of the deals.  We went into the deals with our eyes wide open, hoping to get a pitcher coming out of injuries and pitch well again.  Same can be said with the Archer signing and the Gray trade.  Both coming off of injuries in the past and needing a little tender care in their innings and pitch counts.  These are the bargains we are constantly looking for, and the risk is sometimes worth the reward and sometimes not, but let's not pretend it is simply bad luck.  It is a pattern that cannot be ignored.  The jury is still out for how it will affect '23, but let's hope the guys get well by then.  

[RJA]

Dyson clearly didn't have any red flags.  He just turned out to have been dishonest with himself and/or his teams.  Maeda had some issues, but he seemed to have a pretty good history, so I am not sure anyone could have predicted his surgery.  On the other hand, everybody and their unce knew Paddack wasn't right, so that was not a wise move, especially since he had already had one TJ surgery.  I suspect if he recovers, it will likely be 2024 before he is "whole" again.  Why make this trade when you want a pitcher to help you this year?  It makes no sense.  Mahle did not have as big of a red flag, but when a pitcher has arm shoulder issues in early July, the chance of it acting up again is significant.  If you are making a deadline deal, why take a risk that the player you desperately need is going to be on the IL?  And, he did cost significant prospect capital IMHO.  Do I want the FO to sit on its thumbs at the deadline?  No, I want the FO to sign a good free agent pitcher to avoid being in the position to have to give up prospects for someone at the deadline.  Or, if you are going to add someone, don't focus on players with a history of injuries or one who has had arm or shoulder issues early in current season, even if the acquistion cost is higher.  Penny wise and pound foolish methinks.

[Nashvilletwin]

We all know the old saying: “You pay your money and you take your chance”.  But this pattern goes beyond “bad luck”. Maybe we somewhat knew what we were getting with Paddack. Maeda produced for a while - we’ll see if and how he comes back.  But as trade deadline deals, the Mahle and Dyson trades were beyond terrible.

So sorry, but not all of us believe in “bad luck”, particularly when it happens over and over.  Our owners are savvy people and won’t/shouldn’t fall for the BS excuse of “bad luck” if that is what the FO is offering up.  Someone has to be accountable.

BTW, it looks like zero wins vs. the Dodgers, Astros and Yankees over the last three series with them this past month or so.  Do we blame that on “bad luck” and all the injuries as well?

Bottom line: If you believe in “bad luck”, your organization will be mired in mediocrity in perpetuity.  It doesn’t matter if it’s the Twins, your business, hell, even your love life.  If want your “luck” to change, you do something about it. Period. The Pohlads didn’t just fall off a turnip truck - they understand that.

[TwinsDr2021]

Could Duran be added to this list?

[Trov]

I would say the biggest injury risk we dealt for was Paddock.  I still do not mind the trade overall because he still has years of control and do not feel we gave up a ton, some feel otherwise but do not want to go down that hole.  With Maeda I feel he should not even be on the list, he pitched nearly 2 seasons before the injury.  Dyson lied about issues, we could not have known. Mahle, he is one that had flags, but was showing signs of doing well when dealt, so not much of a reason to think anything major.  I mean we even had him come back because he seemed to just have a tired shoulder at the time.  

You can never fully predict if a guy will have an injury let alone a major one.  You can get better offers, but many teams take on these risk factors and other teams have got burned just like Twins have. 

[PopRiveter]

Maeda can hardly be categorized the same as Paddack and Dyson. He was a season and a half post-trade before he lost time to injury.

I see him as an example of the times it pays off- pitchers who become available for a reasonable price because of lingering injury concern, but who then contribute beyond their price tag. I'd put Maeda's name alongside Pineda on that list.

I'm holding out hope Archer will prove he belongs in that grouping as well, but that would require he reverses some current trends. 

There certainly aren't many examples of that being a successful strategy.

[Otaknam]

Since the Twins won’t pay big money for a top of the rotation free agent starter, the FO took a measured risk with mid rotation starters with injury concerns. And ir hasn’t turned out well. The larger problem is the inability to develop potential number one and two starters, which are essential to making a strong playoff run. The current team will not be positioned for any playoff run until that happens. Also the injury problems of their highly regarded minor league starters is a concern, especially since the organizational theory of four to five innings that Rocco dogmatically follows, using a computer algorithm instead of actually managing on a game to game basis, is also applied in the minors.   Pretty disappointing about how this team is managed.

[twinfan]

Plain and simple. Do your homework and stay away from previously injured pitchers. That's all I can say on this. But every team has had pitchers to go down- even unexpectedly. Blame Covid. Blame the weird pitches and grips. Blame diet. Heck, blame the President of the US if you want. But do your homework first.

[weitz41]

I'm pretty certain I'm in the minority about this. I look at it as calculated risks that didn't pay off...It's been a tough season with an excessive amount of injuries and one that was looking so good 2 months ago now is Meh. If we're going to blame the FO for taking risks in trades are we going to throw them under the bus for extending Buxton? Or signing Correa who's seen plenty of time on the IL until last season.

Would we have been in 1st place most on the 1st half with Rogers and without Gray, Paddack and Pagan?

We traded 2nd and 3rd basemen (DH) and a pitcher for Mahle. Would that had gotten us Montas? I don't think it's even close to what the Yankees gave up for Montas. Plus he had just as serious and injury risk.

Maeda - I don't feel belongs on this list.

Dyson - hard to blame the FO for the things he was hiding.

[ashbury]

Looking at the injury risks who failed is one starting point.  But I'll add to the picture, the injury risks of acquisitions who've panned out.

• Chris Archer had spent the last several seasons on and off the injured list.  We've gotten 4-5 innings per game out of him, with pitch counts generally in the 70s  From July onward, though, his ERA even under this light duty has been 6.64, with the team's record 1-8 in that span.
• Dylan Bundy, never a workhorse, pitched all of 2020 and was on the injured list for part of 2021.  We've gotten 5+ innings per game out of him, with pitch counts generally in the 70s to 80s,  His results from July onward have been around league average, with an ERA of 3.88 with the team's W-L of 7-4 in that span.
• Sonny Gray was on injured lists at times 2020-21.  We've gotten 5-6 innings per game out of him, with pitch counts generally in the 80s to 90s.  His results from July onward have been around league average, with an ERA of 3.93, with the team's W-L of 5-6 in that span.

Archer had a strong beginning, and provided some value.

Both Archer and Bundy have put undue strain on the bullpen resources.  Gray, averaging about 1 inning more per start, has not been the kind of ace who routinely lets the key bullpen pieces relax and have a night off (except for setup/closer perhaps).

Even if nominally these offseason choices for constructing the roster have worked out according to plan, I think they serve as an indictment of the plan itself, which was to accept greater than average injury risk and lower workload, in return for higher than average performance when healthy.  I don't think it's worked, not in terms of excelling anyway.  Bundy's been okay, Gray's been okay, and they represent the best results of the plan.

Paddack and Mahle of course represent when the plan goes completely wrong.  The "ups" don't balance out these "downs".

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

6 hours ago, PopRiveter said:

I'd put Maeda's name alongside Pineda on that list.

Good mention. I'm not sure why an editor did not suggest mentioning Pineda in the article as a success story.  

[roger]

Must disagree with your comment that the Twins aren't going to spend prospect capital for a top notch pitcher.  Isn't that exactly what they did in acquiring Gray and Mahle.  Gray certainly is a front of the rotation starter and I remember several/many commenters here ragging on the Twins to go out at this deadline and get someone with many mentions of Mahle.  

Will agree with those that believe Maeda shouldn't be in this discussion and that the guy from San Francisco who's name I prefer to forget flat out lied about his injury.  Did he lie to the Giants also, we will never know.

On the flip side every fifth morning when I read the Strib over coffee I keep seeing some guy named Montgomery pitch 6, 7 or more innings for the Cardinals with anywhere from 0-2 runs allowed.  Learned that they traded for him from the Yankees at this deadline.  And although I know nothing about the guy they gave the Yankees, he doesn't seem like that big of a stud.  Matter of fact, kind of mediocre from his numbers.  

Is it really more luck than anything when making these deals hours before the deadline when you can't spend too much time on things like getting to know the guy or even investigating injuries?

[I wish the twins were good]

If Mahle needs TJ, he's missing all of next year and that means the Twins lost three high end prospects for basically two starts and change. I expect they'd be able to sign a guy like that cheaply in free agency, but they also could have done the same thing by letting the Reds worry about it and not losing anybody.

[DocBauer]

An interesting article, and I see both sides on this matter quite clearly.

On the positive side of things, Maeda has been a stalwart. Despite there being "some" concern his arm might snag the injury bug, he sure looked good for years, including 2020, and looked as good or better in ST 2021 before things went south. Is it Price that's been pitching year after year with a similar projection but never had surgery yet? Can't recall if I'm remembering correctly. But I don't think Maeda was acquired as "high risk".

Mahle has been very solid, very consistent in his young career. Over 30 GS in 2021, yes? He looked good after a IL this year and looked good his first few starts with the Twins. There seems to be no real indication to predict and injury situation with him other than his stint with the Reds earlier this year. But guys get tweaks at times. Unless the Reds and the Twins were just blind, I don't know that I can include him as a "risky" acquisition either.

Dyson cost very little, would have helped if healthy, but was basically pitching in pain and lying to all parties. An investigation in to the matter determined the Giants had no knowledge of his being injured. 

The "bad" to me is Paddack. I'm not going down the rabbit hole again concerning the trade itself. I've got nothing against the guy and I've stated many times that I wouldn't be at all surprised if a year from now most of us are clamoring for an extension despite having control for 2024. But for someone you wanted/needed for 2022, there were massive red flags indicating the Twins should have struck for someone earlier, or looked elsewhere for a trade option. 

Sorry, but I do believe in bad luck. Or bad fortune, or whatever you want to call it. But it also happens to other teams as well. HOWEVER, I DO THINK you can mitigate better "luck" by just being "safer" in some of your choices.

The Twins knew Pineda, for example, had some past concerns. But he was relatively inexpensive and contributed quite a bit and was mostly healthy in his tenure. And while I wasn't entirely sold on the Archer signing, for the most part, he's done what was initially expected, though he has yet to "climb the mountain" to be better. Were the front 3 better from the begining and the bullpen not such a mess to begin with, he would have filled the 5th spot "adequately", though I would have aimed higher initially and not signed him.

But again, Paddack should never have been acquired as a major piece because just about everyone knew he was destined for another surgery.

So you can't always predict, but you can, at times, just be smarter and maybe pay a little more for someone that appears to have a more clean medical report card. I don't know that there's any real pattern here, but where there's smoke, fire might not be far behind. And I do believe a more thorough examination of past moves is very much in order to try to prevent future negative situations.

Related, and built on speculation, Rodon has been strongly tied to the Twins last offseason and during the trade deadline this year. He's a guy the Twins like, and I do as well. Apparently, the Dirty Sox were out on him due to $ and possible future injury. The Giants jumped and he has had a good year and is expected to opt out for a longer deal. If the $ and terms are there, would the Twins make a move this offseason? Or would they be asking for trouble?

[MTV]

Dyson-no comment

Maeda-didn’t show issues early on, still a very good steal from the very weird Mookie Betts Trade. I would still take Maeda over Graterol and Raley.

Paddack-bad trade, especially considering the pieces you got back with him.

Mahle-trade irritates me. You knew of his injury issues and still gave up serious prospects for him, Steer already looks solid in Cincinnati and I think CES and Hajjar can be something big as well. They weren’t worth what we got back, and getting almost anyone else would’ve Been better.