Will Louie Varland Be Falvey's First Pitching Development Success Story?

[ashbury]

1 hour ago, Brandon said:

Taking a pitcher from the independent leagues who wasn’t good enough to draft and make him into a useful pitcher at the major league level is a huge success story.

For a bottom feeder team.

I enjoyed these success stories during the long winter of 2012-2016. 2017 raised my sights a bit, along with FO promises of sustained success, and while every team needs to fill out their roster with finds like Dobnak, it doesn't represent anything important to the franchise.

[Brandon]

9 minutes ago, ashbury said:

For a bottom feeder team.

I enjoyed these success stories during the long winter of 2012-2016. 2017 raised my sights a bit, along with FO promises of sustained success, and while every team needs to fill out their roster with finds like Dobnak, it doesn't represent anything important to the franchise.

It takes more than an ace pitcher to win.  While Dobnak is at best a 5th starter / long reliever, he has been useful and thus a success.  If you are waiting for the Twins to develop the next Berrios or Radke ….. then it should be stated we are expecting Falvine to Develop 2-3 starters who can pitch as a #1, 2, or 3 starter…..  but this article is about pitching in general and there are success stories here.  Maybe not at the top end of the staff.  But remember the Twins lost year 3 of their development cycle to Covid so the development cycle Is a little broken especially with the recent trades I am glad they made. But I still see pitching prospects coming and I bet you will start seeing them come up soon.  Varland today, Woods Richardson next year.  Maybe Enlow or Balazovich.  Duran could move to the rotation.   As a whole our pitching is average to slightly above average.  We just need more things to break our way for a change.

[ashbury]

3 minutes ago, Brandon said:

It takes more than an ace pitcher to win.  While Dobnak is at best a 5th starter / long reliever, he has been useful and thus a success.

We're playing with semantics now.  As with many disagreements, it's centered on a term with a fuzzy definition.  Obviously it's not a failure to locate a player other teams have passed on, and get him to the majors.  It's a success for the player too.  Continue playing with that all you want.  I'm done playing.

[TwinsDr2021]

29 minutes ago, Brandon said:

It takes more than an ace pitcher to win.  While Dobnak is at best a 5th starter / long reliever, he has been useful and thus a success.  If you are waiting for the Twins to develop the next Berrios or Radke ….. then it should be stated we are expecting Falvine to Develop 2-3 starters who can pitch as a #1, 2, or 3 starter…..  but this article is about pitching in general and there are success stories here.  Maybe not at the top end of the staff.  But remember the Twins lost year 3 of their development cycle to Covid so the development cycle Is a little broken especially with the recent trades I am glad they made. But I still see pitching prospects coming and I bet you will start seeing them come up soon.  Varland today, Woods Richardson next year.  Maybe Enlow or Balazovich.  Duran could move to the rotation.   As a whole our pitching is average to slightly above average.  We just need more things to break our way for a change.

Dobnak's story is pretty amazing, but that doesn't change the fact his career WAR is negative. And if this front office wants to call that a success congrats to them, I mean with that standard there can be no failures right?

Sure 2019 was a great 28.1 innings, very similar to the first three starts of Andrew Albers another huge success right?

I am sure the front office appreciates you having their back.

 

[TwinsRealist]

2 hours ago, Brandon said:

Taking a pitcher from the independent leagues who wasn’t good enough to draft and make him into a useful pitcher at the major league level is a huge success story.

Except he isn't even a useful pitcher...

Why bother to even be a Twins fan when your bar for the team is so low? 

[twins_89]

Has the Falvey regime developed a starter (and by developed, I mean that the player was in the Twins farm system for more than one season) that has pitched 150 innings in the majors? I thought about it and wasn't able to come up with any starters who meet that criterion (Ober and Dobnak are both under 130 innings). Am I forgetting anybody?

[KirbyDome89]

7 hours ago, dxpavelka said:

If you're gonna include Woods-Richardson, you've gotta include Ryan.  Not everybody thought he was MLB ready when they acquired him.  The Rays for instance.  If you're gonna give points for one trade (that thus far has NOT produced results) you've gotta give points for the one that has produced results anyway.

SWR has been in the Twins system for over a year now. Joe Ryan threw 9 innings at AAA for them. It's not even close to the same thing. IIRC TB was fighting to stay atop their division, and they also had one of the best pitching staffs in the league. I doubt the Rays weren't aware he could get big league hitters out, more likely, a lack of need, a division race, and service time factored heavily into the decision. 

[DocBauer]

Look, I'm just spitballing my own thoughts here, but I do think anticipation is meeting frustration on a virtual battlefield at the moment. And I'm as frustrated as hell to see "the plan" come to fruition. Because the original "plan" made a lot of sense to me: "augment and promote and we're going to see changes soon".

And so far, it hasn't worked. 

We can say Ober is NOT a success yet because he hasn't performed long term after getting hurt this year. Ditto for Winder, who looked pretty good the first couple of months. But if they are healthy in 2023, do we do a sudden rewind and give kudos?

Not every Cleveland success story was a SP drafted and developed by them. Some were acquired via trade. So over 2023 and beyond if Ryan keeps getting better and SWR actually turns out to be a quality SP, do we credit the Twins or the teams that drafted them? Not so different than Duran becoming a top of the league RP here in 2022. Is that credit to the Twins? Or are they just benefactors from a trade made a few years ago?

Varland has been on the rise since drafted, just like Winder. He looked good in his debut. Hopefully he's a part of a new wave of quality young arms that help make a difference. 

What the Twins CAN'T DO is consistently sign $25M+ pitchers, or survive with mediocre SP, or continue to trade away potential young arms to fill out their rotation. SOME of that, yes, it's how you build a good team.

And I'm as sick and tired as anyone at watching injuries seemingly happen at every turn at the ML level and the milb level. But in reality, 2021 and 2022 are the first years in which the prospects have just been arriving. Ober and Winder are not failures at this point. Ryan looks good, and he's a Twin now, and his future success and development is as a Twin. Same with SWR if and when he comes up. A healthy and back on track Balazovic in 2023 could go a long, long way to building this rotation. Varland being the solid arm we hope he can be will do the same. And yes, there remain a few really interesting arms lower in the system that bear watching.

Again, I'm as frustrated as anyone the proverbial "pipeline" hasn't delivered what was hoped for yet. But again also, the prospects only started to arrive in 2021 and this year. Someone mentioned Berrios as an example. Great. Loved him, big fan. He stunk his first season. But at least he was never hurt, grant you that.

I'm withholding my final vote on the FO until next year. I want to see the arms they've traded for...via prospects...be healthy and productive. And I want to see the young arms who have just recently debuted...or are close to doing so... also be healthy and productive.  

And if I don't see positive results atnthat point, then I'm going to be talking about failure. 

[ashbury]

4 minutes ago, DocBauer said:

I'm withholding my final vote on the FO until next year. I want to see the arms they've traded for...via prospects...be healthy and productive. And I want to see the young arms who have just recently debuted...or are close to doing so... also be healthy and productive.  

And if I don't see positive results atnthat point, then I'm going to be talking about failure. 

You echo my thoughts, almost precisely.

From one year ago.

[Vanimal46]

37 minutes ago, ashbury said:

You echo my thoughts, almost precisely.

From one year ago.

Yep. Enough time has passed from the lost development season of 2020. This was the first year where it’s totally reasonable to judge the quality of the prospect and pitching pipeline. The FO gave every indication that this was the plan all along by only signing Bundy, Archer, and Joe Smith. 

Then reality hit that Correa would actually sign here, and they changed course by trading for Sonny Gray. Even so, if we were privy to see the 2022 plan, they’d probably want Bundy and Archer to be serviceable until June, when guys like Balazovic/Sands/Winder could take over full time. We know how things turned out. 

I don’t know why the goalposts keep moving a year later to analyze the FO. Do I actually think the Pohlads will move on from them? No. But I’m ready to move on. I don’t think they’re the duo to deliver on their promises of building a sustainable contender, and develop a strong pitching pipeline. 

[dxpavelka]

10 hours ago, KirbyDome89 said:

SWR has been in the Twins system for over a year now. Joe Ryan threw 9 innings at AAA for them. It's not even close to the same thing. IIRC TB was fighting to stay atop their division, and they also had one of the best pitching staffs in the league. I doubt the Rays weren't aware he could get big league hitters out, more likely, a lack of need, a division race, and service time factored heavily into the decision. 

I'm still giving development points for having the wherewithal to trade for Ryan.  Could just as easily have been two Strotmans.  As far as SWR goes, I'm not sure that "being in the Twins system for over a year now" as a starting pitcher and having five wins to show for it is the ringing endorsement you're looking for either.

[ashbury]

10 hours ago, KirbyDome89 said:

SWR has been in the Twins system for over a year now. Joe Ryan threw 9 innings at AAA for them. It's not even close to the same thing.

 

15 minutes ago, dxpavelka said:

I'm still giving development points for having the wherewithal to trade for Ryan.

Here's a way they are the same: both arrived because the FO had the alleged "luxury" of tanking the rest of a lost season by trading two remaining players of value.

If the FO is dedicated to the "sustained success" they spoke of when they were brought in, in late 2016, such Fire Sales ought to be few and far between. 

So quibbling over whether any of the prospects so-obtained have been in the Twins' minor league system for "long enough" is a moot point in my book.  I don't give them much if any development credit for filling the pitching pipeline™ that way.

Making the best of a bad situation (as done in 2021) does not count as a Proof of Concept.

Louie Varland, if he pans out like we hope, would be a very welcome step in the right direction, and definitely would count.

[KirbyDome89]

23 minutes ago, ashbury said:

Here's a way they are the same: both arrived because the FO had the alleged "luxury" of tanking the rest of a lost season by trading two remaining players of value.

4D chess

[bean5302]

The only chance Varland has to be a success story is if Falvey, Levine and Baldelli aren't with the organization anymore. No starting pitcher is ever going to be a "success story" with this front office running the show and destroying all the value they can along the way. 

[dxpavelka]

6 hours ago, ashbury said:

 

Here's a way they are the same: both arrived because the FO had the alleged "luxury" of tanking the rest of a lost season by trading two remaining players of value.

If the FO is dedicated to the "sustained success" they spoke of when they were brought in, in late 2016, such Fire Sales ought to be few and far between. 

So quibbling over whether any of the prospects so-obtained have been in the Twins' minor league system for "long enough" is a moot point in my book.  I don't give them much if any development credit for filling the pitching pipeline™ that way.

Making the best of a bad situation (as done in 2021) does not count as a Proof of Concept.

Louie Varland, if he pans out like we hope, would be a very welcome step in the right direction, and definitely would count.

If they "don't" make the Ryan deal they're probably looking at a double digit deficit by August this year.  That's all the proof of anything I need.  By the way, for as bad as he's allegedly pitched, Berrios has 10 wins for the Jays this year. 

[TwinsDr2021]

On 9/6/2022 at 3:40 PM, Seth Stohs said:

Ryah, Duran... I would say Jax has absolutely been a success. Thielbar was older and had been around, but they got the best out of him.

Did Megill spit in your water or something? Going into the Yanks series he had a 3.58 ERA, after having an ERA of over 8 with the Cubs?

[Seth Stohs]

22 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

Did Megill spit in your water or something? Going into the Yanks series he had a 3.58 ERA, after having an ERA of over 8 with the Cubs?

I like Megill. I think he's been a nice find.