Will Louie Varland Be Falvey's First Pitching Development Success Story?

[Nick Nelson]

When 24-year-old St. Paul native Louie Varland takes the mound in New York on Wednesday (whether pending), he'll already be an awesome success story in his own right — a D2 college player and 15th-round draft pick turned major-leaguer for his hometown team.

But the front office needs more than a sentimental story with local ties. They need Varland to become the first of several drafted-and-developed prospects to establish himself as a legitimate asset in the major-league rotation. 

Image courtesy of Rob Thompson, St. Paul Saints

 

When Twins ownership decided on Derek Falvey as the pick to lead their rebuilt front office, the underlying premise was fairly straightforward: As a mid-market team that can't afford to spend with the big-market heavy hitters, the key to sustainable contention lies in drafting and developing high-quality pitching.

Falvey had a track record for helping spearhead this model in Cleveland, a franchise that — along with Tampa Bay, another of the new regime's clear aspirational influences — became a standard-bearer for getting it right.

Specifically, the Twins hoped a Falvey-led front office would find a competitive advantage by uncovering hidden talent in the draft, as well as in other organizations via trade. They've had some success in the latter department, with Joe Ryan and Jhoan Duran emerging as two of the top arms for this year's staff. 

The Twins' record for drafting and developing homegrown talent is, however, noticeably lacking. They've had a few near-misses — or, I should say, not-yets. 

Bailey Ober, who was taken in the 12th round of Falvey's first draft in 2017, showed great promise last year in 20 starts as a 25-year-old rookie. But his sophomore season being wiped out by a groin injury sorta puts the brakes on his "success story" narrative.

Josh Winder, an eighth-rounder in 2018, has also flashed much to like as both a glow-up prospect and — more crucially — a capable big-league rookie. But he too now finds himself spinning in circles due to injury issues. 

Neither of these guys feels like someone you can really trust as a starter going into 2023. But that is precisely what the Twins need this front office to provide, especially with so many of their more highly-drafted pitching prospects (first-rounder, Chase Petty, second-rounder Steve Hajjar, third-rounder Cade Povich) being dealt away in trades for veterans.

Louie Varland has the makings of a signature success story under Falvey. Few had eyes on him has a little-known starter at Concordia University in St. Paul. The Twins worked closely with him to improve his mechanics for better durability and increased velocity. He came back after the lost pandemic season with a bang, mowing through two levels of A-ball with a 2.10 ERA and 12.4 K/9 rate to earn Twins minor league player of the year honors.

Moving up to the high minors this year, while still subject to some outside skepticism (no major prospect ranking had him in their top 100), Varland backed up his performance at Double-A to earn an early-August promotion to Triple-A, where he was was more filthy than ever: 21.IP, 1.69 ERA, .192 BAA, 27 K, 3 BB, 1 HR. 

Right now, Varland's got everything you could want: outstanding performance at every level, legitimate high-octane stuff, and -- perhaps most critically, where the Twins are concerned -- a seemingly strong bill of health and durability. In his 24 starts between Wichita and St. Paul this year, Varland has thrown 126.1 IP, which would lead all Twins pitchers. 

Of course, those things were also true of Ober and Winder, and any number of other promising ascendant arms in this organization ... until they weren't. Varland unfortunately carries the burden of so many past disappointments as he steps in and tries to give this unraveling rotation a jolt. 

I'm not sure how many more near-misses, or even not-yets, this front office can withstand. People can quibble over the wisdom of splashy free agent and trade acquisitions like Carlos Correa, Sonny Gray and Tyler Mahle, but at the end of the day, if this regime can't start yielding some impact from its own pitching development engine, what are they here for? How can fans feel confident in the future? 

Petty is gone. Matt Canterino's out of the picture until 2024. Winder's health is an ongoing question mark. Jordan Balazovic has seen his stock plunge amidst a nightmare season. 

The standout pitching depth, which seemed to be such a shining strength of the system coming into this season, has been decimated. Varland is one of the few that remains, and there's a lot riding on his shoulders — from both a macro and micro perspective — as he prepares to make his debut in Yankee Stadium (a park where the Twins have won two of their past 22 games), against Aaron Judge and the Bronx Bombers, their season hanging in the balance.

Like I said ... no pressure, kid.  

 

 

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[Seth Stohs]

To be fair to Matt Wallner (shown swinging and missing in Jan 2021 video)... here is another video of Wallner facing Varland this spring training... 

 

Anyone getting to the big leagues is a success. Definitely hopeful on Varland, but I would say that Ober has been a success especially considering all the injuries he faced before 2021. Hopefully he can return. Thankfully it's not an arm injury, so maybe he can come back this year and if not, should be ready to go next spring. 

To be fair, I think Randy Dobnak was a major success for this group. Non-drafted to the big leagues in 2 years, terrific first 2/3 of the season in 2020. Injured since then, but that's a success. 

Admittedly, the missing piece so far is longevity, but most are just getting to the big leagues this year. It took Carlos Carrasco years to figure it out. Kluber was older when he took off. Civale and Plesac and Clevinger had many ups and downs for a couple of seasons before becoming mainstays in those Cleveland rotations. 

Ryah, Duran... I would say Jax has absolutely been a success. Thielbar was older and had been around, but they got the best out of him. 

And, what's exciting is the pipeline. There are a lot of guys who are developing. Obviously not all will make it, but the more that develop well, the more options down the line. David Festa was a Day 3 guy in 2021 and he's been dominant at two levels (this year's Varland). Jaylen Nowlin, their 19th round pick last year, has been very good. I think the pitcher development is exciting. I just think they need to find a way to keep them healthy,b ut that was always the concern when Wes Johnson took the PC job in '19. 

[Danchat]

4 minutes ago, Seth Stohs said:

terrific first 2/3 of the season in 2020. Injured since then, but that's a success. 

2/3 of the 2020 season is 40 games... yeah, that's nice to get out of a minor league free agent, but it's nothing to write home about. Pretty telling if that's one of the primary success stories for the FO in 6 years.

4 minutes ago, Seth Stohs said:

And, what's exciting is the pipeline.

But we've been saying that for years, and yet this season we've had to trade for Gray, Paddack, and Mahle, and had to sign Bundy and Archer... and we'll probably need to add more for next year as well.

As for the current pipeline... it's Varland and Woods-Richardson, and then not much on the horizon. MLB.com's last update placed the Twins farm system at #23 and I agree that it's in the bottom 10. There's certainly no starter prospects who profiles as a future ace, which is something we've been hoping that the new regime would be able to find since Cleveland developed the likes of Clevinger, Bauer (yes, I know he was traded) and Bieber. 

[BH67]

2 minutes ago, Danchat said:

As for the current pipeline... it's Varland and Woods-Richardson, and then not much on the horizon. MLB.com's last update placed the Twins farm system at #23 and I agree that it's in the bottom 10. There's certainly no starter prospects who profiles as a future ace, which is something we've been hoping that the new regime would be able to find since Cleveland developed the likes of Clevinger, Bauer (yes, I know he was traded) and Bieber. 

Depends on how far one views the pipeline.  Wichita, Cedar Rapids and Fort Myers are either first or second in their leagues in fewest runs allowed for the season, regardless of the system ratings.  None of that emerges to the big stage until 2024, which is frustrating, but that's a very positive status.

The bigger issue for me is health once they (and field players) arrive at Target Field.  Something is badly wrong with the conditioning program at the big club, as I can't accept statistically this much "bad luck."  A change there seems to my novice observation to be most important during this coming offseason.

[Beast]

Falvey was supposed to be a pitching genius.  He’s, what, 7 years in and we’re wondering if he finally got one with a guy projected as a mid-rotation starter?  When do we stop connecting Cleveland’s pitching acumen to this guy?  Bring in the same room as an astronaut doesn’t put one space.

[KirbyDome89]

1 hour ago, Seth Stohs said:

Anyone getting to the big leagues is a success. Definitely hopeful on Varland, but I would say that Ober has been a success especially considering all the injuries he faced before 2021. Hopefully he can return. Thankfully it's not an arm injury, so maybe he can come back this year and if not, should be ready to go next spring. 

To be fair, I think Randy Dobnak was a major success for this group. Non-drafted to the big leagues in 2 years, terrific first 2/3 of the season in 2020. Injured since then, but that's a success. 

Admittedly, the missing piece so far is longevity, but most are just getting to the big leagues this year. It took Carlos Carrasco years to figure it out. Kluber was older when he took off. Civale and Plesac and Clevinger had many ups and downs for a couple of seasons before becoming mainstays in those Cleveland rotations. 

Ryah, Duran... I would say Jax has absolutely been a success. Thielbar was older and had been around, but they got the best out of him. 

And, what's exciting is the pipeline. There are a lot of guys who are developing. Obviously not all will make it, but the more that develop well, the more options down the line. David Festa was a Day 3 guy in 2021 and he's been dominant at two levels (this year's Varland). Jaylen Nowlin, their 19th round pick last year, has been very good. I think the pitcher development is exciting. I just think they need to find a way to keep them healthy,b ut that was always the concern when Wes Johnson took the PC job in '19. 

On a personal level, yeah, making the big leagues is a massive success. From a team standpoint, that's not remotely the case. Think about how low we're setting the bar when Dobnak or Thielbar are some of the first names mentioned as success stories. 

The "pipeline," is a meme at this point. Every organization has a Festa or Nowlin; guys in low minors who maybe if things break right find themselves in a major league rotation. That can't be where the goalposts are shifting.

[Dman]

2 hours ago, Danchat said:

2/3 of the 2020 season is 40 games... yeah, that's nice to get out of a minor league free agent, but it's nothing to write home about. Pretty telling if that's one of the primary success stories for the FO in 6 years.

But we've been saying that for years, and yet this season we've had to trade for Gray, Paddack, and Mahle, and had to sign Bundy and Archer... and we'll probably need to add more for next year as well.

As for the current pipeline... it's Varland and Woods-Richardson, and then not much on the horizon. MLB.com's last update placed the Twins farm system at #23 and I agree that it's in the bottom 10. There's certainly no starter prospects who profiles as a future ace, which is something we've been hoping that the new regime would be able to find since Cleveland developed the likes of Clevinger, Bauer (yes, I know he was traded) and Bieber. 

I think you are pretty spot on.  I keep looking at who might have top of the rotation potential and have to squint just to see Varland and SWR.  We are pretty much looking all the way back to Prielipp now and he hasn't even pitched this year yet.  Maybe Festa but given his build he looks more like a future pen arm than starter although he did hold up this year.  Povich was the only other guy that looked like a possibility and he got traded for a bag of magical beans that gives up leads in the 9th more than he creates saves.

The OP is right I went into the year defending the FO for a pitching pipeline that had Balazovich, Sands, Henriquez, Winder, Duran, Enlow on the horizon, Varland, SWR, with some young guys coming up in Povich, Hajjar and Petty with outside chances in SGL, Headrick, Mooney and Festa.  Almost all of it has cratered or been traded away.  It almost feels like they are back to square one.

To say there is ton of pressure on the pitching pipeline feels like an understatement.  They will never compete in the division and ultimately the playoffs if they can't do better than this.  I like Falvine but if they don't get some wins on the pitching side I don't see how they end up any better than the Ryan regime and that is not saying much.

[Brandon]

I for one will not blame the front office for making trades.  We wanted those trades for the big-league team.  so, we got them.  As far as development goes.  the one thing you keep overlooking is the lost 2020 season where no development took place.  That set us back a lot, I think.  

We still have pitchers who are developing and Ober, Winder, and Dobnak are still around.  Hopefully all three come back strong next year.  We still have a few on their way up too.  Woods Richardson and Varland are the top 2 starters on the way and if Balazovich goes back to pitching like last season would make a difference here too.   

How many starters do we need to develop to feel like Falvine is a developer of pitchers?  

[Game7-91]

21 minutes ago, Brandon said:

How many starters do we need to develop to feel like Falvine is a developer of pitchers?  

Start with one please.

Set the SP bar at Berrios-esque level, one guy who can be effective over time, pitch every fifth day, doesnt have to compete for the Cy Young, but can anchor the staff and on occasion rises to the stopper type guy we seem to not be able to find.

Then develop a 2nd a 3rd who can manage mid-rotation, doesnt have to be lights out, just give the team a chance on most days.

And manage to keep filling the pitching roster as the annual churn happens. Because it seems pretty clear the Twins are not going to pay market rates as guys near or achieve FA status. So this very very fine needle they have to thread (and that is not Falvey's fault, but it sure does restrict his abilities), is limiting......but as Nick points out, the best way to thread that needle is to have a development program in constant state of preparing the next cycle, and knowing which of those prospects to move in trade or release, and which to give a shot at MLB level. Falvey regime results to-date are a mixed bag, at best. 

[dxpavelka]

4 hours ago, Danchat said:

2/3 of the 2020 season is 40 games... yeah, that's nice to get out of a minor league free agent, but it's nothing to write home about. Pretty telling if that's one of the primary success stories for the FO in 6 years.

But we've been saying that for years, and yet this season we've had to trade for Gray, Paddack, and Mahle, and had to sign Bundy and Archer... and we'll probably need to add more for next year as well.

As for the current pipeline... it's Varland and Woods-Richardson, and then not much on the horizon. MLB.com's last update placed the Twins farm system at #23 and I agree that it's in the bottom 10. There's certainly no starter prospects who profiles as a future ace, which is something we've been hoping that the new regime would be able to find since Cleveland developed the likes of Clevinger, Bauer (yes, I know he was traded) and Bieber. 

If you're gonna include Woods-Richardson, which I have no problem doing, you also have to acknowledge Joe Ryan is a top 10 AL rookie this year.

[KirbyDome89]

44 minutes ago, dxpavelka said:

If you're gonna include Woods-Richardson, which I have no problem doing, you also have to acknowledge Joe Ryan is a top 10 AL rookie this year.

Ryan isn't a product of the Twins development system. He was MLB ready when they acquired him. 

[USAFChief]

 

15 hours ago, KirbyDome89 said:

On a personal level, yeah, making the big leagues is a massive success. From a team standpoint, that's not remotely the case. 

Couldn't agree more.

"Getting to the big leagues" means zilch towards winning.

Every team needs 26 players, 28 in September. Every team is going to call up rookies on occasion. That's nothing to celebrate as a fan. Or at the least, a poor measure of organizational "success."

Developing players that get to the big leagues, stick, and outperform others is the trick. "Success" is building players that win championships.

 

[HerbieFan]

The short (and correct) answer is...good lord let's hope so!

[HerbieFan]

1 hour ago, Game7-91 said:

Start with one please.

Set the SP bar at Berrios-esque level, one guy who can be effective over time, pitch every fifth day, doesnt have to compete for the Cy Young, but can anchor the staff and on occasion rises to the stopper type guy we seem to not be able to find.

Then develop a 2nd a 3rd who can manage mid-rotation, doesnt have to be lights out, just give the team a chance on most days.

And manage to keep filling the pitching roster as the annual churn happens. Because it seems pretty clear the Twins are not going to pay market rates as guys near or achieve FA status. So this very very fine needle they have to thread (and that is not Falvey's fault, but it sure does restrict his abilities), is limiting......but as Nick points out, the best way to thread that needle is to have a development program in constant state of preparing the next cycle, and knowing which of those prospects to move in trade or release, and which to give a shot at MLB level. Falvey regime results to-date are a mixed bag, at best. 

Or...at the very least...figure how to keep pitchers healthy (or find a training staff that can)

[TwinsRealist]

7 hours ago, Seth Stohs said:

To be fair to Matt Wallner (shown swinging and missing in Jan 2021 video)... here is another video of Wallner facing Varland this spring training... 

 

Anyone getting to the big leagues is a success. Definitely hopeful on Varland, but I would say that Ober has been a success especially considering all the injuries he faced before 2021. Hopefully he can return. Thankfully it's not an arm injury, so maybe he can come back this year and if not, should be ready to go next spring. 

To be fair, I think Randy Dobnak was a major success for this group. Non-drafted to the big leagues in 2 years, terrific first 2/3 of the season in 2020. Injured since then, but that's a success. 

Admittedly, the missing piece so far is longevity, but most are just getting to the big leagues this year. It took Carlos Carrasco years to figure it out. Kluber was older when he took off. Civale and Plesac and Clevinger had many ups and downs for a couple of seasons before becoming mainstays in those Cleveland rotations. 

Ryah, Duran... I would say Jax has absolutely been a success. Thielbar was older and had been around, but they got the best out of him. 

And, what's exciting is the pipeline. There are a lot of guys who are developing. Obviously not all will make it, but the more that develop well, the more options down the line. David Festa was a Day 3 guy in 2021 and he's been dominant at two levels (this year's Varland). Jaylen Nowlin, their 19th round pick last year, has been very good. I think the pitcher development is exciting. I just think they need to find a way to keep them healthy,b ut that was always the concern when Wes Johnson took the PC job in '19. 

Your bar is insanely low if you consider Dobnak a major success story. 

[Monkeypaws]

Ignoramus B. Lazy here.

I've heard of Falvey and Cleveland pitching many times. Without too much effort, what would be examples of that success?

[h2oface]

19 hours ago, Brandon said:

How many starters do we need to develop to feel like Falvine is a developer of pitchers?  

How about at least 2 a year. That would be my bar. I mean, developer of pitchers doesn't mean they just get to play because they have done such a horrible job that even Dobnak is given the opportunity because you have no others!

"developer of pitchers" means not just a placeholder gets the ball, but very good pitchers in excess. And aces you lose to FA because they were developed and great.

[RonCoomersOPS]

No. Bailey Ober has already shown success at the major league level. So has Josh Winder. Those guys being injured doesn't somehow make them cancel out the successes they've had, especially since they aren't career-ending injuries, and those injuries certainly don't suddenly make Ober and Winder's early results not count for Falvey and Levine.

And, since the question was pitching in general -- not just starting pitching -- I'd like to introduce you all to a guy call Jhoan Duran. If he doesn't count as a success story simply because he's not starting this year, then I question if we're not just bitching for bitching's sake.

[RonCoomersOPS]

9 hours ago, Beast said:

Falvey was supposed to be a pitching genius.  He’s, what, 7 years in and we’re wondering if he finally got one with a guy projected as a mid-rotation starter?  When do we stop connecting Cleveland’s pitching acumen to this guy?  Bring in the same room as an astronaut doesn’t put one space.

Falvey has had five years, not seven years, and one of those years was a total loss from a minor league development perspective. And let's not forget that he was taking over for a guy whose pitcher development strategy was originally conceived of (and seemingly not iterated on even once) during the early years of the Cretaceous Period.

[old nurse]

8 hours ago, KirbyDome89 said:

Ryan isn't a product of the Twins development system. He was MLB ready when they acquired him. 

The way Tampa uses pitchers, if he was ready there would have been a call up to Tampa if he was major league ready

[old nurse]

4 hours ago, h2oface said:

How about at least 2 a year. That would be my bar. I mean, developer of pitchers doesn't mean they just get to play because they have done such a horrible job that even Dobnak is given the opportunity bercause you have no others!

"developer of pitchers" means not just a placeholder gets the ball, but very good pitchers in excess. And aces you lose to FA because they were developed and great.

What five teams over the last 5 years has done that every year?

[dxpavelka]

9 hours ago, KirbyDome89 said:

Ryan isn't a product of the Twins development system. He was MLB ready when they acquired him. 

If you're gonna include Woods-Richardson, you've gotta include Ryan.  Not everybody thought he was MLB ready when they acquired him.  The Rays for instance.  If you're gonna give points for one trade (that thus far has NOT produced results) you've gotta give points for the one that has produced results anyway.

[TwinsDr2021]

14 hours ago, Seth Stohs said:

Ryah, Duran... I would say Jax has absolutely been a success. Thielbar was older and had been around, but they got the best out of him. 

Seth are you jockeying for Randballs stu's job?

Ryan pitched 9 innings in the Twins minor leagues, he is no different than Odo, Maeda, Gray and any of trade they have made. If anything him staying healthy makes this FO looks worse with all the other injuries to pitchers.

Duran is a successful bullpen arm and Jax the same, is that that the level of success the Twins and us fans are looking for?

Winder and Ober haven't done jack yet, they should and could, but as of now both have barely pitched and gotten hurt and have been glorified long relievers. Ober in his 27 career starts has qualified for a win 15 times, meaning in just over half of his games has he even went 5 innings. (I know and understand why that is, but until that number turns into quality starts he is no success story as a developed major league pitcher, on a personal level it is a huge success story for Bailey and he should be darn proud of what he has done and overcome.)

If that is all we are looking for why did they ever get rid of the last FO, I mean names like Rogers, Pressly, May, Perkins, Gibson, Berrios, Duffey, Duensing, Swarzak, Guerrier, Diamond, Albers, Hendriks, Liriano, Blackburn, Baker, Slowey,

[TwinsDr2021]

1 hour ago, old nurse said:

The way Tampa uses pitchers, if he was ready there would have been a call up to Tampa if he was major league ready

If they didn't really want Cruz, who is to say he wouldn't have been? He was on their 40 and had just gotten back from the Olympics, the twins got him sent him to pitch in St. Paul for 2 short starts and brought him up.

[USAFChief]

17 hours ago, Seth Stohs said:

... I just think they need to find a way to keep them healthy,b ut that was always the concern when Wes Johnson took the PC job in '19. 

Interesting. 

Care to elaborate?

I don't recall it that way.

 

[USAFChief]

10 hours ago, TwinsRealist said:

Your bar is insanely low if you consider Dobnak a major success story. 

33 appearances, with 21 starts over 3 years, totalling 125.2 IP at a 4.94 ERA and 1.38 WHIP doesn't do it for you?

[farmerguychris]

Maybe it wasn't Falve who helped make Cleveland a pitching destination - could it have been the coaches who worked with the pitchers on a daily basis who made them look so good?  Not saying picking the right players isn't important - it obviously is - but its the coaches who actually develop them into something, not the F.O.

Do we have the right trainers (to keep healthy) and the right minor league pitching instructors to turn these picks into front line starters for us compared to Cleveland in the past?

[jmlease1]

17 hours ago, Beast said:

Falvey was supposed to be a pitching genius.  He’s, what, 7 years in and we’re wondering if he finally got one with a guy projected as a mid-rotation starter?  When do we stop connecting Cleveland’s pitching acumen to this guy?  Bring in the same room as an astronaut doesn’t put one space.

Considering there's rarely more than a handful of guys projected as top-end starters, I don't get too wound up if someone is "only" projected as a mid-rotation guy: projection systems always seem to put guys as mid-rotation or back of the rotation guys (probably partly because no one wants to step out and say "this guy can lead your rotation!" and be wrong, and partly because...there's really only 10-20 guys in all of MLB that are really "ace" pitchers).

The health issue is a major conundrum for this franchise. Is this something that's (more) controllable? Do they need to gamble less on guys with red (or yellow) flags? Do they need to revamp their medical practices to keep players, especially pitchers, healthy? Should they have a rule that they don't draft any pitcher from Rice, no matter how talented?

I'm impressed and pleased with the work they're doing with later round picks and developing them into real prospects. I'm concerned that their top drafted pitching prospects are faltering when they hit AAA or get a shot in MLB.

[Nick Nelson]

18 hours ago, Seth Stohs said:

Anyone getting to the big leagues is a success. Definitely hopeful on Varland, but I would say that Ober has been a success especially considering all the injuries he faced before 2021. Hopefully he can return. Thankfully it's not an arm injury, so maybe he can come back this year and if not, should be ready to go next spring. 

To be fair, I think Randy Dobnak was a major success for this group. Non-drafted to the big leagues in 2 years, terrific first 2/3 of the season in 2020. Injured since then, but that's a success. 

Like I said in the post -- nice success stories for the players, not yet success stories for the organization. Taking out the "buts," "ifs," and "considerings," you cannot objectively call either of these guys successful MLB players yet when they are both 27 years old and have each thrown 125 total innings with  below-average ERAs. 

"Moral victories are for minor-league coaches." - Jay Z

[Brandon]

11 hours ago, TwinsRealist said:

Your bar is insanely low if you consider Dobnak a major success story. 

Taking a pitcher from the independent leagues who wasn’t good enough to draft and make him into a useful pitcher at the major league level is a huge success story.