If Twins do not at minimum split with Yankees, should we even care if we make playoffs?

[insagt1]

We are all Twins fans here. I believe we all want them to succeed and even in a terrible division, get into the post season, because once you're in,  you just never know.

But reality is, Twins can't beat the Yankees no matter how bad they have been playing. And they still insist on pitching to a guy that will beat them everyday ending in 'y'. Cleveland will probably sweep KC and Twins won't win a single game against NY. That will put them into a position where they will have to pretty much run the table in the head to head games with Guardians. And the WhiteSox are right there too. Between injuries and slumps, Twins are not a good team right now and if they head into the weekend 3 or 4 games out, it will be tough to recover. They are really fortunate to be in a division that has stumbled all year.

Until the math says otherwise, there is hope. Twins are still in meaningful games in September, but they are not demonstrating much confidence that a nice late season run is in the cards.

[USAFChief]

1 hour ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

fWAR or bWAR?

No

[USAFChief]

35 minutes ago, Number3 said:

You stole my thunder or as Chris Berman would say, "Sweet Strings Viola". They also had a real home field advantage called the Metrodome. Home team won every game.

I still want the Twins to battle it out and squeak into the playoffs. If they get swept in NY after losing 2 of 3 in Chicago, that probably won't happen. They just seem to continually hover on the edge of the cliff.

IIRC Mr Berman would have said "Frankie Sweet Music Viola."

[Craig Arko]

I care, Whether someone else does or not makes no difference to me. That's up to them.

[Squirrel]

1 hour ago, Bradfoot said:

So it's not important to look at our record against opponents outside the AL central when we (if we make it) would be the only AL central team in the playoffs?

 

It's also not important to look at our record against teams over .500, or playoff caliber teams? 

 

I really don't expect an announcer to quote the under .500 records when comparing a playoff matchup.. 

"Houston has a much better record than the Twins but let's not discount how well the Twins did against Royals and Tigers."

Yes and no. In the playoffs you are starting out from zero regardless of your record to get there. Many teams can and do get hot and perform beyond what their record was during the season. Tht doesn’t mean I have huge hopes that the Twins will outperform Houston or whoever in the playoffs as the probability is low. But, in baseball who knows.

[lukeduke1980]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

Yes, we should want the team to make the playoffs. I want this team to make the playoffs and win at least one game there to end this streak of playoff futility. Get that monkey off the team's back.

100% agree.  Sonny gray for 4 or 5 and bullpen lined up could scratch out a 3-2 win.  That'd be huge to end the streak

[chpettit19]

18 hours ago, SanoMustGo said:

This team could not hold a candle to 1987.  And, that team was never at .500 so late in the season.  No comparison.

The Twins are currently 68-65. In 1987 after 133 games they were 69-64. I mean it's not exactly the same, but I'd say it's certainly comparable...

[Trov]

Glad to see the level of debate and some well thought out posts.  I for one do want the team to make playoffs, and is of the belief making it is the key anything can happen, rarely does the best team win the WS even in long series.  

I do think we could hold our own against many of the teams in the playoffs, as my post showed we have a winning record against every team in the wild card hunt.  Who all have better records than us.  Only the division leaders have we looked terrible against.  Could Buck come back and get hot, and Polonco who has shown he can carry teams for short stints?  Yes, they both could.  Anyone could step up in the playoffs, or we could have the terrible offense we have shown at times and get swept, but you will not know if you do not make it.  

I made the post to get the debate going and people's thoughts.  I was happy to see some good back and forth.  I fully agree with those pointing to 87 that we could get hot end of this month get into playoffs and carry that the whole way.  Atlanta did it last year.  Very few expected them to make playoffs let alone win it all last year. It is likely to happen no, but just make the playoffs and try you never know. 

[Jerr]

18 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Let's take a quick peek at the primary players on the vaunted '87 club vs. '22. I'll use the top 20 players without comparing the all the bit players. I multiplied '22 by 1.22 to get to their pace for the full season and I assumed Mahle doesn't return.

C = (0.4) vs. 0.6 Laudner vs. Sanchez
1B  = 4.0 vs. 4.7 Hrbek vs. Arraez
2B = 1.3 vs. 3.4 Lombardozzi vs. Polanco
3B = 2.4 vs. 2.2 Gaetti vs. Urshela
SS = 3.9 vs. 4.5 Gagne vs. Correa
LF = 1.2 vs. 2.1 Gladden vs. Gordon
CF = 4.2 vs. 5.0 Puckett vs. Buxton
RF = 2.5 vs. 2.8 Brunansky vs. Kepler
DH = 0.2 vs. 1.6 Smalley vs. Miranda
Tot = 16.8 vs. 25.7

SP1 = 8.1 vs. 1.9 Viola vs. Gray
SP2 = 4.4 vs. 1.1 Blyleven vs. Ryan
SP3 = 2.2 vs. 0.4 Straker vs. Bundy
SP4 = (0.4) vs. (0.2) Smithson vs. Archer
SP5 = (1.0) vs. 0.7 Niekro vs. Smeltzer
Tot = 13.3 vs. 4.0

RP1 = 0.7 vs. 2.8 Reardon vs. Duran
RP2 = 2.0 vs. 2.6 Berenguer vs. Lopez (combined)
RP3 = 0.1 vs. 0.7 Atherton vs. Fulmer
RP4 = 0.0 vs. 0.1 Frazier vs. Thielbar
RP5 = (0.9) vs. (1.0) Schatzeder vs. Pagan
RP6 = (1.0) vs. 0.5 Portugal vs. Jax
Tot = 0.9 vs. 5.0

The '87 Twins team's positional players and lineup was mostly solid up and down, but it wasn't an asset for a playoff team. The '22 Twins are almost universally better having a higher projected bWAR in 8 of 9 spots with the positional play truly being an asset to the team in the playoffs.

The '87 Twins team had an exceptionally strong top of the rotation which faded fast after Blyleven with Straker being decent at the time and the rest of the rotation being pretty poor. The '22 Twins team's rotation being "weak" is an understatement. Though the weakness is somewhat impacted by the low inning philosophy of the front office and management, there is nobody in the rotation I'd want facing prime Viola or even '87 Blyleven in a playoff game. This is one of the keys to the Twins in the playoffs in 87. Only your best starters trot out to the mound, and the Twins had a great top of the order.

The '87 Twins team's bullpen was poor. If it wasn't Berenguer or Reardon on the mound, bad things were likely to happen. It was a different era, though. The bullpen in '87 pitched about 500 innings. The '22 bullpen is on pace for more like 800 innings. Regardless, the '22 team's bullpen isn't much deeper. Outside of Duran and Lopez (on the season), the value is limited.

Memories of the 1987 Twins are golden, but they weren't really a great team. They were just barely good enough to make the playoffs and a far cry from the 1991 Twins, who were a very good team. So the 2022 Twins are somewhat similar, but in the wrong way. When it comes to the playoffs, great starters make all the difference IMHO.

1987 Twins had heart, fire, and desire. The 2022 Twins appear to lack a bit of all three of those.

 

[chpettit19]

1 hour ago, Bradfoot said:

So it's not important to look at our record against opponents outside the AL central when we (if we make it) would be the only AL central team in the playoffs?

 

It's also not important to look at our record against teams over .500, or playoff caliber teams? 

 

I really don't expect an announcer to quote the under .500 records when comparing a playoff matchup.. 

"Houston has a much better record than the Twins but let's not discount how well the Twins did against Royals and Tigers."

If we're looking at "playoff caliber teams" why not just look at what they did against the likely wild card teams that they'd play in round 1?

TB: Twins win series 4-2 while outscoring them 34-25
Sea: Twins win series 4-3 while outscoring them 26-17
Tor: Twins win series 4-3 while being outscored 38-41
Bal: Twins win series 4-3 while being outscored 24-25

That's a 16-13 record against the teams they'd face if they win the division. If you told me coming into the year that the Twins would win a single playoff round I'd have taken it. Now moving beyond that? Much different, but this team and, more importantly, fan base could use a playoff round win. Or just a playoff game win.

[IndianaTwin]

At 12 games behind the Yankees and 18 behind Houston, if the Twins win the Central, they are almost certain to be the No. 3 seed and would host the 6 seed.

At 6.5 games behind Toronto for the third wild-card spot (and No. 6 seed), it's pretty doubtful they'd get in as a Wild Card. If they play well enough to catch Toronto (and pass Baltimore in the process), it means they probably played well enough to win the division. 

So yeah, I'd welcome the chance to play Houston or New York in the playoffs, because the only way they'll do that is to win the ALC and the first round of the playoffs. 

 

[Richie the Rally Goat]

I will take a post season berth, any way, shape, or how.

you can’t win a World Series if you don’t get into the post season 

[PopRiveter]

As a boy, I became a fan of baseball because I loved the postseason games of '87 and '91.

At present, I love regular season baseball more than any other sport, but the playoff version of baseball is unrecognizeable. It is not played like the same game and to my eye, the officiating starts to look like the NBA where the star players get the benefit of every call. I've lost interest in the MLB postseason.

I hope that changes someday. I've gotten to the point where I avoid Twins playoff games in recent years to keep myself from getting upset or depressed.

I have my fun in the regular season. That is all MLB allows. 

[Riverbrian]

2 hours ago, Bradfoot said:

Where did I say give up?  

 

We are being propped up by a horrible division though.

You didn't directly.

Indirectly... it leaves that impression. ?

 

Personally, I don't spend much time worrying about the strength of any division.   

The playoff format is in place, it is what it is and in is in.    

[Mike Sixel]

3 hours ago, Bradfoot said:

So it's not important to look at our record against opponents outside the AL central when we (if we make it) would be the only AL central team in the playoffs?

 

It's also not important to look at our record against teams over .500, or playoff caliber teams? 

 

I really don't expect an announcer to quote the under .500 records when comparing a playoff matchup.. 

"Houston has a much better record than the Twins but let's not discount how well the Twins did against Royals and Tigers."

That's what the data says, yes. I found it hard to believe, but that's the data.

[baul0010]

21 hours ago, gil4 said:

1987

The '87 Twins had Bert and Frank.  Please list 2 starting pitchers that could even handle winning a playoff game...let alone come close to either of those two pitchers.  

[Muppet]

Jeez. Calm down. This team isn't great, but that doesn't mean they aren't fun. They are in a division with three teams doing everything they can to give the playoff spot to their rivals. But no one team is likely to win the world series. The Twins can pull it off... unlikely... but not impossible. If they did, I bet it would be much  more exciting as a Twins' fan to watch them win than as a Dodger fan to watch them take it. 

If they don't make it to the playoffs, we got to watch Arraez make a bid for batting champ, Miranda and Duran with great rookie seasons, Nick Gordon come back to be a solid player. We saw Joe Ryan show flashes of the brilliant pitcher he might become. We have a solid pack of young players in Kirriloff, Larnach, (as well as Miranda, Gordon, etc) that might provide some real stability in the next couple of years. Plus we got to forget all about Sano. 

This is a great spot to be in for a team that was utter trash last year. Plus, if the Twins DO win it all, you know it will be due to an unlikely clutch homerun in the 9th inning by our unwitting savior Jake Cave. 

[ashbury]

5 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

37-43 is a .462 winning percentage. 

31-41 is a .430 winning percentage.

In Ty Cobb's day those were on base percentages.

[Nine of twelve]

Yes, of course we care. I think everyone on this site would rather see the Twins make the postseason than see them fail to do so. Even if there are no illusions about hoisting The Commissioner's Trophy it's still an accomplishment to win the division. And, assuming we would enter the postseason as AL Central champs, that gives us two home games to try to break The Streak.

[prouster]

20 hours ago, jkcarew said:

1987 is irrelevant. Even if we assume there is the equivalent of that team’s talent currently on this team (probably a stretch)…1987 is still irrelevant based on the difference in playoff format. There’s a huge difference between getting hot and beating one superior opponent vs sustaining that and beating 2 far superior opponents….just to get to the dance.

But you still want the Twins to get there because you need the players to get a taste…even if it means winning zero or 1 games. Plenty of new potential leaders on the club who you want to have that opportunity who haven’t had it before.

Fine. 2006 Cardinals.

[Sean.h]

One word: reinforcements

I would argue that roughly a third of the 10-15 best players on the roster are expected to be back for the playoff run.

Buxton, Mahle (hopefully?), Polanco, Winder/Ober, Larnach, Jeffers (maybe?)

 

[Shaitan]

Should I disown my children if they don't get into Harvard on the first try?

[Number3]

4 hours ago, USAFChief said:

IIRC Mr Berman would have said "Frankie Sweet Music Viola."

He could go all the way. I thought it was something like that. Anyway, just win tonight and eliminate the possibility of a sweep. Is that too much to ask? Then 8 of the following 11 games (after the Yankees series) will probably decide it.

[FritzDahmus]

Sure they should participate in the playoffs. In today's game you go to the playoffs, because you deserve it. Right now 9 of the 15 teams in the AL are fighting to get into the playoffs. They all deserve it.

I'm being a little sarcastic. I don't think any of you actually answered the question. The Twins are not good enough to do anything in the playoffs if they can't at least split with the Yankees. They will get swept.....so therefore I don't think they will do a damn thing [as always] in the playoffs. It takes more than one year and a few bad trades to change that!!

The playoffs in major league baseball is not needed. They play each other enough in the regular season to decide who DESERVES to go to the World Series.

I hope the Twins go to the playoffs. I love watching them. I would love to see how some of the guys would play. So yes, no matter if the Yankees sweep the Twins [which they will]......I still am wishing they make the playoffs.

[Bradfoot]

2 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

You didn't directly.

Indirectly... it leaves that impression. ?

 

Personally, I don't spend much time worrying about the strength of any division.   

The playoff format is in place, it is what it is and in is in.    

I think pointing out that the odds are against them is a lot different than saying they should not try at all.

 

I did say I hope they make the playoffs which should imply that I want them to try.

[Loosey]

We should care.  The team playing right now is likely much different than what a healthy playoff team might look like.  Buxton, Polanco, Jeffers - possibly a healthy Mahle could be on that roster.  That is a better team than they are throwing out there now.  Just get in, then see what happens.

Remember, there is a big difference between winging it and seeing what happens.  Now, lets see what happens.

[LVTwinsfan]

If the Twins win the Central or if by some odd chance they get a wildcard spot, then they have earned their spot in the playoffs. If they win the division Target Field will be sold out for 3 games. To even suggest that because they lose a series to the Yankees that real Twins fans won’t care is just ridiculous.

[ashbury]

2 hours ago, Shaitan said:

Should I disown my children if they don't get into Harvard on the first try?

We have three children but only one is still in our will.

[gunnarthor]

I want the Twins to make the playoffs, even the watered down, every other team gets in, playoffs. I have no expectations that they can make any noise in the playoffs - a huge difference from 87 where you just play two teams, max. 

[Game7-91]

And NYY announcing postponement tonight, doubleheader tomorrow. Cie la vie.

Even NYY fans are unhappy and stressed, abt their 1st place, WS contending team. Check out the angst from Pinstripe Alley:

https://www.pinstripealley.com/2022/9/4/23335322/yankees-angels-athletics-rays-josh-donaldson-isiah-kiner-falefa-gerrit-cole-domingo-german