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If Twins do not at minimum split with Yankees, should we even care if we make playoffs?


Trov

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First, we do not need to win series against Yankees to make playoffs, being we have plenty of head to head games down the stretch with both Sox and Guardians to figure out who wins the division.  However, the Yankees are slumping bad, with about as many injuries we have been dealing with and outside of Judge, not much offense can be counted on each game.  Sounds pretty similar to much of our last few months.

Now, when you look at the elite teams, which until the injury bug set in the Yankees were in the Elite class, we have not done well.  We have lost all games against Houston, and the Dodgers, two of the Elite teams in baseball we have played.  We won a game against the Yankees, and blew a game against them earlier in year.  Right now Yankees are not playing like an Elite team, and I feel if we cannot at least split against them, it is hard to believe we will do anything but get swept from playoffs again if we make it.  

We did hit just fine against Yankees first series at home, scoring 4,8.7 runs in the series, but still losing 2 out of 3.  We have been rolled over by every top team in the league so far, winning one game against a team that is top of the league.  We have held our own against the second tier teams for most part, winning season series against Rays, Jays, Baltimore, and Seattle.  All teams fighting for wild cards, or possible division if Yankees continue to slide.  However, they all have better records than Twins.  So maybe if we face one of those in playoffs we could win a game, but if we face either Yankees or Houston, at this point I have no expectations we would win a game.

Maybe, if we can beat a slumping Yankees team I will feel otherwise, but that would requite a split of the 4 games.  I do say you never know what playoffs will bring, but in the games against Houston, Dodgers, and Yankees I have watched, we did not look like we can compete with them for most part.  Even when we scored 7 runs in loss to Yankees it felt like we were going to lose from the jump. 

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This team is 68-64, they are not really that good.  They are no threat to any other playoff team.  The FO has made some horrible trades.  So no, who cares if they make the playoffs.  I'm sure there is a good chance they get swept by NY.  Besides, it's college football time.

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53 minutes ago, SanoMustGo said:

This team is 68-64, they are not really that good.  They are no threat to any other playoff team.  The FO has made some horrible trades.  So no, who cares if they make the playoffs.  I'm sure there is a good chance they get swept by NY.  Besides, it's college football time.

1987

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42 minutes ago, gil4 said:

1987

Hit the nail on the head here. The 1987 Twins were a pretty good team who weren't expected to make it out of the first round, but they got hot at the right time and had the ball bounce their way in route to a World Series victory.

If the Twins make it into the playoffs, it's almost certainly going to be by winning the division. Cleveland just decided to roll over and die by losing 5 straight games, and the White Sox seem hapless. Now 5 games out of the Wildcard, it's not happening. Relative to the Twins, the Wildcard standings.
*Seattle +7 games
*Tampa Bay +6 games
*Toronto +5 games
Baltimore +2.5 games
Minnesota
Chicago -2.0 games
Boston -2.5 games

Aside from that, the playoffs are a different game than the regular season. Only the best players play and every game matters. Also, and I say this seemingly ever year, but it's already long past time for the AL Central to stop playing like it's entirely composed of AAAA clubs. One day, it'll happen and the AL Central will no longer be the worst division in baseball. Some team will step up, stop kicking balls instead of catching them and start playing with confidence instead of desperation.

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2 hours ago, SanoMustGo said:

This team is 68-64, they are not really that good.  They are no threat to any other playoff team.  The FO has made some horrible trades.  So no, who cares if they make the playoffs.  I'm sure there is a good chance they get swept by NY.  Besides, it's college football time.

Then it's a wonder you even care about posting here about the Twins. I, for one, do care if they make the playoffs. That's the goal, no matter how much confidence (or lack thereof) I have in the team, no matter how overmatched they might be in the playoffs. Making the playoffs gives you a chance, even if slim, to keep playing. No playoffs, it's over. While I'm frustrated and disappointed with some things, my prediction at the beginning of the season was 80-84 wins and no playoffs. So, I'll be good and want them to, make the playoffs. Enjoy your football.

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I personally wouldn’t have that takeaway just because it’s the Yankees.

But, the Guardians play the Royals.  If we don’t split, we might be down 2, 3, 4 games again right away.  If we get swept, the race is all but over for the Twins.

Also, we’re not playing the same Yankees team of a couple months ago.  These guys have stunk lately. If we don’t split, we frankly don’t deserve the playoffs.  The baseball gods have repeatedly tried to hand this team the division, and they keep throwing it back at them like a hot potato.

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1 hour ago, bean5302 said:

Hit the nail on the head here. The 1987 Twins were a pretty good team who weren't expected to make it out of the first round, but they got hot at the right time and had the ball bounce their way in route to a World Series victory.

If the Twins make it into the playoffs, it's almost certainly going to be by winning the division. Cleveland just decided to roll over and die by losing 5 straight games, and the White Sox seem hapless. Now 5 games out of the Wildcard, it's not happening. Relative to the Twins, the Wildcard standings.
*Seattle +7 games
*Tampa Bay +6 games
*Toronto +5 games
Baltimore +2.5 games
Minnesota
Chicago -2.0 games
Boston -2.5 games

Aside from that, the playoffs are a different game than the regular season. Only the best players play and every game matters. Also, and I say this seemingly ever year, but it's already long past time for the AL Central to stop playing like it's entirely composed of AAAA clubs. One day, it'll happen and the AL Central will no longer be the worst division in baseball. Some team will step up, stop kicking balls instead of catching them and start playing with confidence instead of desperation.

1987 is irrelevant. Even if we assume there is the equivalent of that team’s talent currently on this team (probably a stretch)…1987 is still irrelevant based on the difference in playoff format. There’s a huge difference between getting hot and beating one superior opponent vs sustaining that and beating 2 far superior opponents….just to get to the dance.

But you still want the Twins to get there because you need the players to get a taste…even if it means winning zero or 1 games. Plenty of new potential leaders on the club who you want to have that opportunity who haven’t had it before.

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1 hour ago, SanoMustGo said:

This team could not hold a candle to 1987.  And, that team was never at .500 so late in the season.  No comparison.

Let's take a quick peek at the primary players on the vaunted '87 club vs. '22. I'll use the top 20 players without comparing the all the bit players. I multiplied '22 by 1.22 to get to their pace for the full season and I assumed Mahle doesn't return.

C = (0.4) vs. 0.6 Laudner vs. Sanchez
1B  = 4.0 vs. 4.7 Hrbek vs. Arraez
2B = 1.3 vs. 3.4 Lombardozzi vs. Polanco
3B = 2.4 vs. 2.2 Gaetti vs. Urshela
SS = 3.9 vs. 4.5 Gagne vs. Correa
LF = 1.2 vs. 2.1 Gladden vs. Gordon
CF = 4.2 vs. 5.0 Puckett vs. Buxton
RF = 2.5 vs. 2.8 Brunansky vs. Kepler
DH = 0.2 vs. 1.6 Smalley vs. Miranda
Tot = 16.8 vs. 25.7

SP1 = 8.1 vs. 1.9 Viola vs. Gray
SP2 = 4.4 vs. 1.1 Blyleven vs. Ryan
SP3 = 2.2 vs. 0.4 Straker vs. Bundy
SP4 = (0.4) vs. (0.2) Smithson vs. Archer
SP5 = (1.0) vs. 0.7 Niekro vs. Smeltzer
Tot = 13.3 vs. 4.0

RP1 = 0.7 vs. 2.8 Reardon vs. Duran
RP2 = 2.0 vs. 2.6 Berenguer vs. Lopez (combined)
RP3 = 0.1 vs. 0.7 Atherton vs. Fulmer
RP4 = 0.0 vs. 0.1 Frazier vs. Thielbar
RP5 = (0.9) vs. (1.0) Schatzeder vs. Pagan
RP6 = (1.0) vs. 0.5 Portugal vs. Jax
Tot = 0.9 vs. 5.0

The '87 Twins team's positional players and lineup was mostly solid up and down, but it wasn't an asset for a playoff team. The '22 Twins are almost universally better having a higher projected bWAR in 8 of 9 spots with the positional play truly being an asset to the team in the playoffs.

The '87 Twins team had an exceptionally strong top of the rotation which faded fast after Blyleven with Straker being decent at the time and the rest of the rotation being pretty poor. The '22 Twins team's rotation being "weak" is an understatement. Though the weakness is somewhat impacted by the low inning philosophy of the front office and management, there is nobody in the rotation I'd want facing prime Viola or even '87 Blyleven in a playoff game. This is one of the keys to the Twins in the playoffs in 87. Only your best starters trot out to the mound, and the Twins had a great top of the order.

The '87 Twins team's bullpen was poor. If it wasn't Berenguer or Reardon on the mound, bad things were likely to happen. It was a different era, though. The bullpen in '87 pitched about 500 innings. The '22 bullpen is on pace for more like 800 innings. Regardless, the '22 team's bullpen isn't much deeper. Outside of Duran and Lopez (on the season), the value is limited.

Memories of the 1987 Twins are golden, but they weren't really a great team. They were just barely good enough to make the playoffs and a far cry from the 1991 Twins, who were a very good team. So the 2022 Twins are somewhat similar, but in the wrong way. When it comes to the playoffs, great starters make all the difference IMHO.

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7 minutes ago, jkcarew said:

1987 is irrelevant. Even if we assume there is the equivalent of that team’s talent currently on this team (probably a stretch)…1987 is still irrelevant based on the difference in playoff format. There’s a huge difference between getting hot and beating one superior opponent vs sustaining that and beating 2 far superior opponents….just to get to the dance.

But you still want the Twins to get there because you need the players to get a taste…even if it means winning zero or 1 games. Plenty of new potential leaders on the club who you want to have that opportunity who haven’t had it before.

The 87 Twins team didn't get a "taste." The Twins have gotten plenty of "tastes" over the past few years in their 1 and done trips. 2017, 2019, 2020... They got their taste of the playoffs before in 2004, 2006, 2007, 2009, 2010 when they advanced 1 time before starting the longest consecutive playoff losing streak in MLB history.

I'd like to see the Twins win the World Series, not make the playoffs. I don't really care about the players having the "experience" of going to the playoffs since I don't think of this as a family vacation to Disney World. The players are paid to play. The manager, coaches and front office are paid to make sure the players have the resources to be professional. The team has plenty of veteran leadership and players with playoff experience on the team.

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2 hours ago, Squirrel said:

Then it's a wonder you even care about posting here about the Twins. I, for one, do care if they make the playoffs. That's the goal, no matter how much confidence (or lack thereof) I have in the team, no matter how overmatched they might be in the playoffs. Making the playoffs gives you a chance, even if slim, to keep playing. No playoffs, it's over. While I'm frustrated and disappointed with some things, my prediction at the beginning of the season was 80-84 wins and no playoffs. So, I'll be good and want them to, make the playoffs. Enjoy your football.

Ohh I am, Squirrel...LOL

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54 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Let's take a quick peek at the primary players on the vaunted '87 club vs. '22. I'll use the top 20 players without comparing the all the bit players. I multiplied '22 by 1.22 to get to their pace for the full season and I assumed Mahle doesn't return.

C = (0.4) vs. 0.6 Laudner vs. Sanchez
1B  = 4.0 vs. 4.7 Hrbek vs. Arraez
2B = 1.3 vs. 3.4 Lombardozzi vs. Polanco
3B = 2.4 vs. 2.2 Gaetti vs. Urshela
SS = 3.9 vs. 4.5 Gagne vs. Correa
LF = 1.2 vs. 2.1 Gladden vs. Gordon
CF = 4.2 vs. 5.0 Puckett vs. Buxton
RF = 2.5 vs. 2.8 Brunansky vs. Kepler
DH = 0.2 vs. 1.6 Smalley vs. Miranda
Tot = 16.8 vs. 25.7

SP1 = 8.1 vs. 1.9 Viola vs. Gray
SP2 = 4.4 vs. 1.1 Blyleven vs. Ryan
SP3 = 2.2 vs. 0.4 Straker vs. Bundy
SP4 = (0.4) vs. (0.2) Smithson vs. Archer
SP5 = (1.0) vs. 0.7 Niekro vs. Smeltzer
Tot = 13.3 vs. 4.0

RP1 = 0.7 vs. 2.8 Reardon vs. Duran
RP2 = 2.0 vs. 2.6 Berenguer vs. Lopez (combined)
RP3 = 0.1 vs. 0.7 Atherton vs. Fulmer
RP4 = 0.0 vs. 0.1 Frazier vs. Thielbar
RP5 = (0.9) vs. (1.0) Schatzeder vs. Pagan
RP6 = (1.0) vs. 0.5 Portugal vs. Jax
Tot = 0.9 vs. 5.0

The '87 Twins team's positional players and lineup was mostly solid up and down, but it wasn't an asset for a playoff team. The '22 Twins are almost universally better having a higher projected bWAR in 8 of 9 spots with the positional play truly being an asset to the team in the playoffs.

The '87 Twins team had an exceptionally strong top of the rotation which faded fast after Blyleven with Straker being decent at the time and the rest of the rotation being pretty poor. The '22 Twins team's rotation being "weak" is an understatement. Though the weakness is somewhat impacted by the low inning philosophy of the front office and management, there is nobody in the rotation I'd want facing prime Viola or even '87 Blyleven in a playoff game. This is one of the keys to the Twins in the playoffs in 87. Only your best starters trot out to the mound, and the Twins had a great top of the order.

The '87 Twins team's bullpen was poor. If it wasn't Berenguer or Reardon on the mound, bad things were likely to happen. It was a different era, though. The bullpen in '87 pitched about 500 innings. The '22 bullpen is on pace for more like 800 innings. Regardless, the '22 team's bullpen isn't much deeper. Outside of Duran and Lopez (on the season), the value is limited.

Memories of the 1987 Twins are golden, but they weren't really a great team. They were just barely good enough to make the playoffs and a far cry from the 1991 Twins, who were a very good team. So the 2022 Twins are somewhat similar, but in the wrong way. When it comes to the playoffs, great starters make all the difference IMHO.

There is no Kirby Pucket or Kent Hrbek on this team, despite the WAR numbers.  There were a number of clutch plarers on that team, this team, not so much.

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4 hours ago, SanoMustGo said:

Besides, it's college football time.

Minor league football is less interesting than the professional game to me but maybe things have changed in the 35 years since I last watched either a minor or major league football game. We all have different interests.

This is a baseball site, but I do hope you enjoy minor league football as much as I enjoy both minor and major league baseball.

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1 hour ago, bean5302 said:

SP1 = 8.1 vs. 1.9 Viola vs. Gray
SP2 = 4.4 vs. 1.1 Blyleven vs. Ryan
SP3 = 2.2 vs. 0.4 Straker vs. Bundy
SP4 = (0.4) vs. (0.2) Smithson vs. Archer
SP5 = (1.0) vs. 0.7 Niekro vs. Smeltzer
Tot = 13.3 vs. 4.0

RP1 = 0.7 vs. 2.8 Reardon vs. Duran
RP2 = 2.0 vs. 2.6 Berenguer vs. Lopez (combined)
RP3 = 0.1 vs. 0.7 Atherton vs. Fulmer
RP4 = 0.0 vs. 0.1 Frazier vs. Thielbar
RP5 = (0.9) vs. (1.0) Schatzeder vs. Pagan
RP6 = (1.0) vs. 0.5 Portugal vs. Jax
Tot = 0.9 vs. 5.0

The Huge difference here is that Blyleven pitched 267 innings, Viola pitched 251.22 for a total of 518 1/3 innings. To be honest Straker (debuted at age 27), Smithson (debuted at age 27) and Niekro were ahead of their time averaging about 5 innings a start but mostly because they were generally not all that great because when they were on they all pitched 7 plus inning games.

And Reardon pitched 80.33, Berenguer 112, Frazier 81.33, Atherton 79.33.

They basically pitched the heck out of their best pitchers and rode them to a world series.

So far Ryan 118.33, Bundy 118.33, Gray 104.66 and archer 95.66 have combined for 436.98 (the 4 might just get over what the the top two did), this years club is trying to ride and I use that world loosely about 20 pitchers

Th 87 twins had 4 guys with over 28 homers, this years club so far 1 with over 16, in the day and age of hitting homers to score that isn't good. The 87 Twins had 4 players (3 catchers) under .238 BA, the 22 Twins have at least 10-12. 87 stole 113 bases this year 27.

So I agree comparing the two teams isn't worth trying they were nothing alike, other than in a crappy division.

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Take away our AL Central games and the Twins are 37-43 on the year.  We are 31-41 against teams at or above .500. 

 

But someone needs to represent the prestigious AL Central in the postseason, and it might as well be us.  It would sell a few more tickets this year and season tickets next year.  It would also make us slightly more attractive for free agents.  There is also that small chance of an underdog run.

 

If we forced a game 3 in round 1, could we declare a "went the distance" moment or would we need to make it further to start throwing around Rocky 1 references?

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39 minutes ago, Bradfoot said:

Take away our AL Central games and the Twins are 37-43 on the year.  We are 31-41 against teams at or above .500. 

 

But someone needs to represent the prestigious AL Central in the postseason, and it might as well be us.  It would sell a few more tickets this year and season tickets next year.  It would also make us slightly more attractive for free agents.  There is also that small chance of an underdog run.

 

If we forced a game 3 in round 1, could we declare a "went the distance" moment or would we need to make it further to start throwing around Rocky 1 references?

There was a recent article on fangraphs examining the kind of data you quote. It isn't predictive at all. Overall record is, but not how you got that record. 

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39 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

There was a recent article on fangraphs examining the kind of data you quote. It isn't predictive at all. Overall record is, but not how you got that record. 

Did he show those stats to be predictive? Or just to show how the Twins got to their record? I took it as how they got to be 3 games over .500, maybe I missed it, is he trying to say because 23 of the last 30 are against the central or only 10 of 30 are against better than .500 the Twins should be fine?

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1 hour ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

Did he show those stats to be predictive? Or just to show how the Twins got to their record? I took it as how they got to be 3 games over .500, maybe I missed it, is he trying to say because 23 of the last 30 are against the central or only 10 of 30 are against better than .500 the Twins should be fine?

He's saying it doesn't matter what your record is versus good or bad teams, just your overall record. Perhaps I misunderstood the point. 

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9 hours ago, gil4 said:

1987

To those who say "look at 1987... you never know!"

I watched 1987... I know 1987.... and this is NO 1987.

We had two pitchers that could dominate a playoff team on a good day  (Viola and Blyleven). This team does not have any pitcher even close. 

That team had Kirby Puckett who could take over games at any time. This team does not have a hitter like that.

The 1987 team lacked pitching depth (Les Straker as the third starter anyone?!), so MAKING it into the playoffs was the challenge but once in, they were dangerous to any team in a short series with days off. 

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12 hours ago, Bradfoot said:

Take away our AL Central games and the Twins are 37-43 on the year.  We are 31-41 against teams at or above .500. 

 

But someone needs to represent the prestigious AL Central in the postseason, and it might as well be us.  It would sell a few more tickets this year and season tickets next year.  It would also make us slightly more attractive for free agents.  There is also that small chance of an underdog run.

 

If we forced a game 3 in round 1, could we declare a "went the distance" moment or would we need to make it further to start throwing around Rocky 1 references?

37-43 is a .462 winning percentage. 

31-41 is a .430 winning percentage. 

How does 46% become a reason to give up? 

 

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18 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Let's take a quick peek at the primary players on the vaunted '87 club vs. '22. I'll use the top 20 players without comparing the all the bit players. I multiplied '22 by 1.22 to get to their pace for the full season and I assumed Mahle doesn't return.

C = (0.4) vs. 0.6 Laudner vs. Sanchez
1B  = 4.0 vs. 4.7 Hrbek vs. Arraez
2B = 1.3 vs. 3.4 Lombardozzi vs. Polanco
3B = 2.4 vs. 2.2 Gaetti vs. Urshela
SS = 3.9 vs. 4.5 Gagne vs. Correa
LF = 1.2 vs. 2.1 Gladden vs. Gordon
CF = 4.2 vs. 5.0 Puckett vs. Buxton
RF = 2.5 vs. 2.8 Brunansky vs. Kepler
DH = 0.2 vs. 1.6 Smalley vs. Miranda
Tot = 16.8 vs. 25.7

SP1 = 8.1 vs. 1.9 Viola vs. Gray
SP2 = 4.4 vs. 1.1 Blyleven vs. Ryan
SP3 = 2.2 vs. 0.4 Straker vs. Bundy
SP4 = (0.4) vs. (0.2) Smithson vs. Archer
SP5 = (1.0) vs. 0.7 Niekro vs. Smeltzer
Tot = 13.3 vs. 4.0

RP1 = 0.7 vs. 2.8 Reardon vs. Duran
RP2 = 2.0 vs. 2.6 Berenguer vs. Lopez (combined)
RP3 = 0.1 vs. 0.7 Atherton vs. Fulmer
RP4 = 0.0 vs. 0.1 Frazier vs. Thielbar
RP5 = (0.9) vs. (1.0) Schatzeder vs. Pagan
RP6 = (1.0) vs. 0.5 Portugal vs. Jax
Tot = 0.9 vs. 5.0

The '87 Twins team's positional players and lineup was mostly solid up and down, but it wasn't an asset for a playoff team. The '22 Twins are almost universally better having a higher projected bWAR in 8 of 9 spots with the positional play truly being an asset to the team in the playoffs.

The '87 Twins team had an exceptionally strong top of the rotation which faded fast after Blyleven with Straker being decent at the time and the rest of the rotation being pretty poor. The '22 Twins team's rotation being "weak" is an understatement. Though the weakness is somewhat impacted by the low inning philosophy of the front office and management, there is nobody in the rotation I'd want facing prime Viola or even '87 Blyleven in a playoff game. This is one of the keys to the Twins in the playoffs in 87. Only your best starters trot out to the mound, and the Twins had a great top of the order.

The '87 Twins team's bullpen was poor. If it wasn't Berenguer or Reardon on the mound, bad things were likely to happen. It was a different era, though. The bullpen in '87 pitched about 500 innings. The '22 bullpen is on pace for more like 800 innings. Regardless, the '22 team's bullpen isn't much deeper. Outside of Duran and Lopez (on the season), the value is limited.

Memories of the 1987 Twins are golden, but they weren't really a great team. They were just barely good enough to make the playoffs and a far cry from the 1991 Twins, who were a very good team. So the 2022 Twins are somewhat similar, but in the wrong way. When it comes to the playoffs, great starters make all the difference IMHO.

fWAR or bWAR?

edit:

clearly I missed the spec below the table on bWAR :)

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10 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

More important, there is no Frank Viola on this team

You stole my thunder or as Chris Berman would say, "Sweet Strings Viola". They also had a real home field advantage called the Metrodome. Home team won every game.

I still want the Twins to battle it out and squeak into the playoffs. If they get swept in NY after losing 2 of 3 in Chicago, that probably won't happen. They just seem to continually hover on the edge of the cliff.

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13 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

There was a recent article on fangraphs examining the kind of data you quote. It isn't predictive at all. Overall record is, but not how you got that record. 

So it's not important to look at our record against opponents outside the AL central when we (if we make it) would be the only AL central team in the playoffs?

 

It's also not important to look at our record against teams over .500, or playoff caliber teams? 

 

I really don't expect an announcer to quote the under .500 records when comparing a playoff matchup.. 

"Houston has a much better record than the Twins but let's not discount how well the Twins did against Royals and Tigers."

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