Week in Review: Crash and Burn

[Nick Nelson]

The past week of Twins baseball offered the same script we've seen over and over again this season: a modest burst of momentum, then a screeching halt.

The Twins followed up a 5-1 homestand by falling flat on their faces in the south side of Chicago. While they're still tied for first out of sheer circumstance, this team is not in a good place.

Image courtesy of Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports

Weekly Snapshot: Mon, 8/29 through Sun, 9/4
***
Record Last Week: 3-3 (Overall: 68-64)
Run Differential Last Week: -4 (Overall: +28)
Standing: T-1st Place in AL Central

Last Week's Game Results:

Game 127 | MIN 4, BOS 2: Urshela Delivers, Bullpen Locks It Down
Game 128 | MIN 10, BOS 5: Gordon Leads the Way in Big Win
Game 129 | BOS 6, MIN 5: Ryan Falters, Late Rally Falls Short
Game 130 | CWS 4, MIN 3: Twins Cough Up Multiple Leads
Game 131 | CWS 13, MIN 0: Cease Nearly No-Hits Twins
Game 132 | MIN 5, CWS 1: Sweep Averted Behind Bundy

NEWS & NOTES

Last week, in looking ahead to the roster expansion on September 1st, I wrote that "it'll be interesting to see how those spots are used initially, because the club isn't exactly hard-pressed for roster room right now." The Twins lacked appealing internal options to promote, since basically everyone was already up or still rehabbing from injury.

Sure enough, both of the players who were called up to fill the additional two September roster spots are players who weren't in the organization 10 days ago: Billy Hamilton, the one-dimensional speedy veteran outfielder signed the previous week, and Austin Davis, a left-handed reliever claimed off waivers from Boston just a day earlier.

A few other roster moves before we fully dive into the week that was:

• Jorge Polanco landed on the injured list as his knee inflammation proved too much to fight through. Jermaine Palacios replaced him on the roster.
• Jovani Moran was called up in place of Devin Smeltzer, then went back down to make room for Tyler Mahle, who was activated to start on Saturday night. Mahle lasted two innings before exiting the game. He went back on IL with the same shoulder issue, and Moran was recalled to take his place.
• Bailey Ober started a rehab stint in Fort Myers, throwing three innings of one-run ball. Meanwhile, we learned that Kenta Maeda will not return this season, and will instead focus on getting to full strength for spring of 2023.

HIGHLIGHTS

The big highlight of the past week, distant as it may now seem, was Jhoan Duran breaking new ground with his spectacularly powerful arm. During his appearance against the Red Sox on Monday, Duran unleashed a triple-digit splinker (his hybrid of a splitter and sinker), and became the first pitcher in MLB history to throw an off-speed pitch 100+ MPH.

The historic radar reading came amidst another dominant outing for Duran, who struck out two in a perfect inning against Boston. He later delivered a 1-2-3 inning against Chicago on Friday night, and then retired five in a row on Sunday. Not only has Duran allowed zero runs in his past eight appearances, but he's faced the minimum in seven of them. He's unreal.

Another special moment came on Tuesday night, when Nick Gordon had the game of his life, driving in six runs on two hits including a game-breaking grand slam. In a cool showing of reverence, his teammates let Gordon take the field alone the following inning, allowing him to soak in the applause and tip his cap.

As much as the Twins offense has stalled out since the end of July, Gordon has been an exception. He's slashing .307/.344/.511 since August 1st, and during that span he leads the team in wOBA and fWAR, ranking second in WPA. 

LOWLIGHTS

Rocco Baldelli is certainly not exempt from criticism when it comes to this team's failings, but one reason I find much of it hollow is this: The Twins are being dragged down by veteran players who just aren't getting it done.

Carlos Correa came up in a huge spot on Wednesday, with one out and the winning run on first. He hit into a game-ending double play. It was yet another in a long-running string of letdowns at crucial moments for the legendary clutch performer. 

Sonny Gray, who has made it clear that he wants to go deeper into games, is pitching his way out of that proposition. Almost every single start, it seems like he's cruising up until the middle innings, when the wheels start to come off. That happened again on Friday in Chicago, where Gray was staked an early 2-0 lead and then hit the wall in a laborious 26-pitch fourth, which saw Minnesota's lead disappear and led to a burdensome night for the bullpen.

Friday marked the 10th time in 14 starts since Gray came off the injured list in mid-June that he has failed to even pitch into the sixth inning. People can argue that he should be allowed to pitch his way out of these self-made struggles, but for all the "robotic manager" takes thrown at Baldelli, falling back on that default is what would really be robotic.

Gray isn't just running into bad luck when these outings turn south. He's visibly struggling on the mound. He's losing his command, and batters are starting to ambush him. What is a manager for, if not to act in these moments and turn the tides of a game getting away? (Gray later revealed he was pitching through a "little tightness.")

Baldelli's decision mostly paid off, up until Caleb Thielbar left one hanging in the eighth and set the stage for another poor showing from Jorge López. Like Correa and Gray, López is a veteran player the front office invested in tremendously, and placed in a key role. He has the worst Win Probability Added of any pitcher on the team since his acquisition.

The following night, it was Minnesota's other marquee deadline pickup snuffing the life out of the Twins' season. Insisting he feels fine, Mahle took the mound and looked far from it. His velocity was still way down, his pitches were trash, and the White Sox absolutely clobbered him. It would be a surprise if Mahle pitched again this season.

Gray can't give the Twins any length. Mahle is down. Joe Ryan continues to show debilitating vulnerability to the long ball. There's just not enough at the top of this rotation to inspire any faith in the team's ability to rattle off wins, especially when supported by a barely functional lineup. At least they've got a break in the schedule coming up. Oh, wait.

TRENDING STORYLINE

Amazingly, the Twins are tied for first place. We'll see how long that holds up, with Cleveland heading to Kansas City for three games while the Twins travel to face their eternal tormentors in New York, but that's where we are at.

LOOKING AHEAD

Here we go. Into the gauntlet. Four games at Yankee Stadium followed by three at home against the top AL Central contender. This feels like a pivotal week, but knowing the Twins, they'll probably go like 3-4 and end up in the same place they started., more or less

MONDAY, 9/5: TWINS @ YANKEES – RHP Chris Archer v. RHP Jameson Taillon
TUESDAY, 9/6: TWINS @ YANKEES – RHP Joe Ryan v. RHP Gerrit Cole
WEDNESDAY, 9/7: TWINS @ YANKEES – RHP Sonny Gray v. RHP Domingo German
THURSDAY, 9/8: TWINS @ YANKEES – TBD v. TBD
FRIDAY, 9/9: GUARDIANS @ TWINS – TBD v. RHP Dylan Bundy
SATURDAY, 9/10: GUARDIANS @ TWINS – RHP Cal Quantrill v. RHP Chris Archer
SUNDAY, 9/11: GUARDIANS @ TWINS – RHP Triston McKenzie v. RHP Joe Ryan

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[BH67]

Crashing, burning, and yet back into a tie for first place.  This is the most bizarre Twins season I can remember.  No outcome in the stretch run will surprise me.  Que sera, sera.

[bighat]

I honestly don't see how this team wins even 1 game in NYY. I think you have to expect a sweep and be happy if they can eek out a game....but even thinking positively and creatively, I can't see how they even win one. 

 

[Peter]

Huge week-games will be intense!!! Got to watch this as it’s must see!!! Cancel all social activities!!! Get a Split in New York-win series with Cleveland-win twins!!!

[Nine of twelve]

28 minutes ago, bighat said:

I honestly don't see how this team wins even 1 game in NYY. I think you have to expect a sweep and be happy if they can eek out a game....but even thinking positively and creatively, I can't see how they even win one. 

 

Here's positive and creative thinking: It's not just which team you play it's when you play them. The Yankees have been playing bad baseball. Starting with July 31 their record through yesterday (when they won) is 11-20. And there was even a 5-game winning streak in the middle of that stretch. In their last 8 games since that streak they are 2-6. To compare, the Twins are 15-17 during the same time period. Based on this a split should be the expectation.

[mikelink45]

The White Sox series really exposed the September Twins.  Polanco should have been on the IL much earlier - it is a Twins trend to wait and it hurts the team.  Spencer Steer now has an OPS of 1.083 and 0.2 WAR in nine games.  Mahle is 1 -1 with a 4.41 era and is probably done for the season.  You definitely showed the answer to Cody's article wondering if Lopez is a disappointment.  Cade Povich has an era of 0.00 after two games for the orioles minor league team. Michael Fulmer has a 3.77 era and a 1.4 whip for MN - not outstanding either.  Aaron Sanchez has a -0.8 WAR for the Twins - he is not going to save the season.  I hope they will try Winder, he has the potential to do more than Sanchez.

"The 2005 National League Western Division Champion San Diego Padres are the only division winners to finish the season with a below . 500 record. It wasn't easy. The Padres finished the season at 82-80, five games ahead of the runner-up 77-85 Arizona Diamondbacks"

[USAFChief]

57 minutes ago, Nine of twelve said:

...The Yankees... Based on this a split should be the expectation.

Heh.

[terrydactyls]

1 hour ago, mikelink45 said:

The White Sox series really exposed the September Twins.  Polanco should have been on the IL much earlier - it is a Twins trend to wait and it hurts the team.  Spencer Steer now has an OPS of 1.083 and 0.2 WAR in nine games.  Mahle is 1 -1 with a 4.41 era and is probably done for the season.  You definitely showed the answer to Cody's article wondering if Lopez is a disappointment.  Cade Povich has an era of 0.00 after two games for the orioles minor league team. Michael Fulmer has a 3.77 era and a 1.4 whip for MN - not outstanding either.  Aaron Sanchez has a -0.8 WAR for the Twins - he is not going to save the season.  I hope they will try Winder, he has the potential to do more than Sanchez.

"The 2005 National League Western Division Champion San Diego Padres are the only division winners to finish the season with a below . 500 record. It wasn't easy. The Padres finished the season at 82-80, five games ahead of the runner-up 77-85 Arizona Diamondbacks"

82-80 is not an under .500 season unless the "new math" from the 80's changed the basics.

[insagt1]

Even though Yanks are playing real poorly and not scoring runs...when they face the Twins they flip the switch unfortunately.  They are kryponite for Twins. And as injured and messed up as Twins are now...I think if they steal 1 game it will be amazing. And I REALLY want to be wrong on this gloomy prediction!

[mikelink45]

11 minutes ago, terrydactyls said:

82-80 is not an under .500 season unless the "new math" from the 80's changed the basics.

I added that in response to other posts - I can do the math, but the questions are about the possibilities of the Central leader being under 500.

[Reptevia]

25 minutes ago, terrydactyls said:

82-80 is not an under .500 season unless the "new math" from the 80's changed the basics.

It’s the new analytics. It’s “potentially “ under .500!  You boomers and your useless “counting” categories. Don’t you understand that keeping track of objective outcomes is useless????

[bighat]

1 hour ago, mikelink45 said:

Mahle is 1 -1 with a 4.41 era and is probably done for the season. 

My prediction: Tommy John and done for all of next year as well, he becomes a free agent with the 1-1, 4.41 stats as his career totals as a Twin. 

Steer looks like he's going to have the career that we all hoped Kirilloff and/or Larnach would have. 

[IndianaTwin]

Here's a current snapshot of how things look going forward, with games remaining: 

[whosafraidofluigirussolo]

1 hour ago, terrydactyls said:

82-80 is not an under .500 season unless the "new math" from the 80's changed the basics.

 

48 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

I added that in response to other posts - I can do the math, but the questions are about the possibilities of the Central leader being under 500.

But even the quoted part is worded to say that the Padres "finish[ed] the season with a below-.500 record." It's not clear, but I was guessing that "finished the season" counted their playoff record - so they were two games above .500 in the regular season but playoff wins and losses took them below .500.

"Finished the season" would be weird wording to describe this, but maybe that explains it?

[mikelink45]

20 minutes ago, whosafraidofluigirussolo said:

 

But even the quoted part is worded to say that the Padres "finish[ed] the season with a below-.500 record." It's not clear, but I was guessing that "finished the season" counted their playoff record - so they were two games above .500 in the regular season but playoff wins and losses took them below .500.

"Finished the season" would be weird wording to describe this, but maybe that explains it?

You have to talk to Bleacher Report about the wording.  

[ashbury]

3 hours ago, Nine of twelve said:

Here's positive and creative thinking: It's not just which team you play it's when you play them. The Yankees have been playing bad baseball. Starting with July 31 their record through yesterday (when they won) is 11-20. And there was even a 5-game winning streak in the middle of that stretch. In their last 8 games since that streak they are 2-6. To compare, the Twins are 15-17 during the same time period. Based on this a split should be the expectation.

Except, traditionally the Twins have been Chicken Soup for the Pinstriped Soul.

[dxpavelka]

And yet 6-4 in the last 10 and somewhere in the background I'm hearing the legendary "light happy music."

[D.C Twins]

Here is the main question:

What are the chances that this team could win a playoff series much less a game?

To those who say "look at 1987... you never know!"

I watched 1987... I know 1987.... and this is NO 1987.

We had two pitchers that could dominate a playoff team on a good day  (Viola and Blyleven). This team does not have any pitcher even close. 

That team had Kirby Puckett who could take over games at any time. This team does not have a hitter like that.

The 1987 team lacked pitching depth (Les Straker as the third starter anyone?!), so MAKING it into the playoffs was the challenge but once in, they were dangerous to any team in a short series with days off. 

[ashbury]

1 hour ago, D.C Twins said:

Here is the main question:

What are the chances that this team could win a playoff series much less a game?

To those who say "look at 1987... you never know!"

I watched 1987... I know 1987.... and this is NO 1987.

We had two pitchers that could dominate a playoff team on a good day  (Viola and Blyleven). This team does not have any pitcher even close. 

That team had Kirby Puckett who could take over games at any time. This team does not have a hitter like that.

The 1987 team lacked pitching depth (Les Straker as the third starter anyone?!), so MAKING it into the playoffs was the challenge but once in, they were dangerous to any team in a short series with days off. 

In boxing parlance, the 1987 edition had a puncher's chance.  Every year a team or two is like that; hard work and good fortune came through for them that particular year.

This year's team, though, has a glass jaw.

[Nine of twelve]

2 hours ago, ashbury said:

Except, traditionally the Twins have been Chicken Soup for the Pinstriped Soul.

The Yankees do not have a soul. Or at least they don't own it outright after the deal they made at the crossroads.

[Nine of twelve]

4 hours ago, bighat said:

My prediction: Tommy John and done for all of next year as well, he becomes a free agent with the 1-1, 4.41 stats as his career totals as a Twin. 

Steer looks like he's going to have the career that we all hoped Kirilloff and/or Larnach would have. 

Tommy John is an elbow procedure. Mahle's issue is with his shoulder.

[ashbury]

11 minutes ago, Nine of twelve said:

Tommy John is an elbow procedure. Mahle's issue is with his shoulder.

A clever fellow, Tommy can think up a procedure for shoulders, I'm sure.

[HerbieFan]

No great mystery here....the "burst of momentum" comes against bad teams, and the "screeching halt" comes against good teams.  That is all.

 

[Florida Flash]

9 hours ago, insagt1 said:

Even though Yanks are playing real poorly and not scoring runs...when they face the Twins they flip the switch unfortunately.  They are kryponite for Twins. And as injured and messed up as Twins are now...I think if they steal 1 game it will be amazing. And I REALLY want to be wrong on this gloomy prediction!

I hate to say it but I think the Vesili Warriors or Miesville Mudhens can beat the Twins if they put on Yankee uniforms. No offense meant to Vesili or Miesville.

[Nine of twelve]

On 9/5/2022 at 7:28 AM, Nine of twelve said:

Here's positive and creative thinking: It's not just which team you play it's when you play them. The Yankees have been playing bad baseball. Starting with July 31 their record through yesterday (when they won) is 11-20. And there was even a 5-game winning streak in the middle of that stretch. In their last 8 games since that streak they are 2-6. To compare, the Twins are 15-17 during the same time period. Based on this a split should be the expectation.

I was only off by 1 run.