Mahle for Steer/Hajjar/Encarnacion-Strand - How did the Twins blow this one so badly??

[tony&rodney]

1 hour ago, bean5302 said:

60/40? Here's a link to a Grade the Twins' Deadline. It was nowhere near 60/40 or even 80/20. 

 

92% A or B
6% C
1% D
0% F

Here's an article about Mahle in particular. Overwhelming positivity in the comments, with a couple guarded concerns. Nobody was really negative.

It's safe to say virtually the entire active poster base on the site deemed the trade acceptable to great.

 

Good response. I hadn't really thought of the responses as so pro Mahle but you are right per the numbers.

I too liked adding Mahle because the Twins needed starting pitchers, but I was hopeful for others (P. Lopez, etc.). Still, I was pleased with the trade because adding nothing would have been defeating to an extent. 

Thought I should acknowledge that my memory was faulty. I didn't look anything up.

[MABB1959]

Maeda is another disappointment.   While I don’t think they gave up much but got pretty much nothing.   32 games since 2019.  

[howeda7]

18 hours ago, nokomismod said:

For what reason? I don't think the ownership has been a problem at all except for maybe hiring Falvey and Levine. Terry Ryan had some complex where he thought he could get extra points for saving money on the roster but what I have heard was that ownership wasn't aligned with that approach.

I don't agree with the "Cheap Pohlads" criticism. No owner is going to spend $200 million in payroll in the MSP market. But I do believe they are complacent and un-curious. They waited entirely too long to move on from Terry Ryan and they will likely do it again. Stability is great to a point. But having had only 3 GM's in 30 years while wining zero championships isn't really a badge of honor.

 

I have seen enough of Falvey to feel very confident we will never win a World Series with him running the team. I'm doubtful we'll even clear the low bar of winning one play-off game. But I know he will likely be given 2-3 more years before he's shown the door. That's beyond frustrating.

[KirbyDome89]

46 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

The alternative was to add no starter.... they couldn't pay the price for Castillo. Montas had been hurt more recently.

This site would have excoriated the FO for not adding a starter. But when they did, and the risk didn't work yet ...

It was a good trade. You can make good decisions and still have bad outcomes. That's the reality of the universe. 

Sure, you can have a good process that doesn't always yield great results. If you continue to land on  damaged goods though, are the decisions made actually good ones?

[RJA]

6 hours ago, jorgenswest said:

One of the reason the Twins were able to acquire Mahle without giving up a global top 50 prospect was his health risk. The upside of a healthy Mahle is a vastly improved rotation for the playoffs. We didn’t get the upside. I prefer the risk of Mahle to trading for a starter to try to stabilize the back end but isn’t someone you want starting a playoff game. A healthy Mahle starts game 1 for the Twins.

There is reason to be concerned about the buyer side on any significant deadline deal. The solution is to not make deals or be a seller. 

I think the problem is more complex than simply questioning what the Twins did at the deadline.  The question also includes an analysis of why they had to do what they did at the deadline.  Had the FO participated in the best free agent period in history for quality starting pitching and secured a quality number 1 starter, there may have been no need to trade for Mahle at all.  For example, one of the reasons the FO didn't pursue Rodon was injury concerns--even when getting him on a deal like the Giants would only have required a one or two year investment--but they were very happy to trade for Paddack who had nowhere near Rodon's stuff AND who had even bigger red flags concerning injuries.  Paddack was immediately injured, had TJ surgery and now is out until sometime next year.  It will likely be 2024 before he is fully recovered.  And, of course, the Paddack trade also brought us Pagan who has been a lifesaver in the bullpen ;).  Had they added Rodon, it would be Rodon, Gray, and Ryan at the top of the rotation which would be better than Mahle, Gray and Ryan even if Mahle were healthy, and the Twins could have kept the prospects or used them in the off season to acquire more pitching.  The same is true of the bullpen where they added Pagan and Smith when there were a lot of better arms available.  Hence, the need to add Lopez (who has had a half year of success total in the majors) for more prospects.  The point I am making is that this FO reacts to things too late and end up making bad deals, or overpaying as a result.

[bean5302]

1 hour ago, MABB1959 said:

Maeda is another disappointment.   While I don’t think they gave up much but got pretty much nothing.   32 games since 2019.  

You really feel Brusdar Graterol would have been more valuable to 2020's Cy Young runner up? Maeda having a solid (but unlucky) 2021 before going down with the UCL tear was unfortunate, but he's super cheap and has added more fWAR in just his down 2021 than Graterol has in his career so far. Graterol isn't a threat to be a starter, and that was really the big risk in dealing him. Maeda's still under contract for only $3MM next year. Meanwhile, Graterol appears to be a good middle reliever or maybe setup guy. I think Maeda was a very good trade, even considering the loss of 2022.

[bean5302]

1 hour ago, tony&rodney said:

Good response. I hadn't really thought of the responses as so pro Mahle but you are right per the numbers.

I too liked adding Mahle because the Twins needed starting pitchers, but I was hopeful for others (P. Lopez, etc.). Still, I was pleased with the trade because adding nothing would have been defeating to an extent. 

Thought I should acknowledge that my memory was faulty. I didn't look anything up.

I'm not nearly as big on Mahle as some other fans on the site, but I recognized what the Twins had to offer to secure an elite arm. They took a shot and it was a decent one considering the team's limitations on assets.

It's easy to feel like the responses were more negative or guarded than the grades, especially if you're mediocre on the move. After all, it's not as if the conversation was all absolute ecstatic cheers in the Mahle thread.

[Squirrel]

3 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

I went to Middle School with Franklin. He was talking about baseball. ? 

I think Chief was Franklin's teacher when Franklin went to school. Whatever Franklin said about baseball he got it from Chief

[Mike Sixel]

1 hour ago, KirbyDome89 said:

Sure, you can have a good process that doesn't always yield great results. If you continue to land on  damaged goods though, are the decisions made actually good ones?

What was the alternative this trade deadline? There were three good starters moved. Sometimes you don't have a lot of options. I'd have been really unhappy had they done nothing.

[Mike Sixel]

54 minutes ago, RJA said:

I think the problem is more complex than simply questioning what the Twins did at the deadline.  The question also includes an analysis of why they had to do what they did at the deadline.  Had the FO participated in the best free agent period in history for quality starting pitching and secured a quality number 1 starter, there may have been no need to trade for Mahle at all.  For example, one of the reasons the FO didn't pursue Rodon was injury concerns--even when getting him on a deal like the Giants would only have required a one or two year investment--but they were very happy to trade for Paddack who had nowhere near Rodon's stuff AND who had even bigger red flags concerning injuries.  Paddack was immediately injured, had TJ surgery and now is out until sometime next year.  It will likely be 2024 before he is fully recovered.  And, of course, the Paddack trade also brought us Pagan who has been a lifesaver in the bullpen ;).  Had they added Rodon, it would be Rodon, Gray, and Ryan at the top of the rotation which would be better than Mahle, Gray and Ryan even if Mahle were healthy, and the Twins could have kept the prospects or used them in the off season to acquire more pitching.  The same is true of the bullpen where they added Pagan and Smith when there were a lot of better arms available.  Hence, the need to add Lopez (who has had a half year of success total in the majors) for more prospects.  The point I am making is that this FO reacts to things too late and end up making bad deals, or overpaying as a result.

Good thing they traded for Gray and Ryan ....

[KirbyDome89]

27 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

What was the alternative this trade deadline? There were three good starters moved. Sometimes you don't have a lot of options. I'd have been really unhappy had they done nothing.

If the Twins had passed on Mahle because they weren't thrilled with his medical profile, would you have actually been upset? They made it clear Mahle was a target prior to the deadline, they got him, and the results have been all too familiar. Is this pattern indicative of a sound process? 

[Mike Sixel]

26 minutes ago, KirbyDome89 said:

If the Twins had passed on Mahle because they weren't thrilled with his medical profile, would you have actually been upset? They made it clear Mahle was a target prior to the deadline, they got him, and the results have been all too familiar. Is this pattern indicative of a sound process? 

I really don't know. Is it proof of a bad one? 

[KirbyDome89]

10 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

I really don't know. Is it proof of a bad one? 

It's looking that way no? They seem to have a knack for investing in injured SPs and ineffective bullpen arms. I have a hard time believing the last two years are simply the unlucky results of a solid process. 

[Mike Sixel]

7 minutes ago, KirbyDome89 said:

It's looking that way no? They seem to have a knack for investing in injured SPs and ineffective bullpen arms. I have a hard time believing the last two years are simply the unlucky results of a solid process. 

Fair. I have no idea. They took chances, and paid lower prices on Maeda and Paddock just they been healthy. It didn't work. But maybe, just maybe, that's why the prices were what they were, and it just didn't work. If they'd have been trading for healthy, very good, pitchers at this rate, they'd be out of prospects.

I really don't think people are looking at the relative cost, and asking why it was so low ... There is a lot more going on than just what they bought. 

[Rosterman]

If the Reds make a World Series push in four years with Petty, Strand, Steer and Hajjar on their roster...we can cry!

[RJA]

21 hours ago, bean5302 said:

It may be worth noting that Mahle gave the Twins 2 - 6.0 six inning starts (162 pitches) where his fastball had normal velocities before the game where Mahle got pulled early so it's tough to blame the F.O. for Mahle's fatigue just based on that. Could there be an issue? Maybe. But, the fact Mahle made it to a 3rd start before the problem cropped up makes it tougher.

Two points.  The FO knew they needed a top level starter last offseason and sat on the sidelines while the best crop of free agent starters ever went elsewhere.  Where were they last offseason?  Second, Mahle had issues with his shoulder in early July, and when a pitcher has a shoulder strain, especially in early July, the chance of it reoccuring after he throws a bunch more pitches during the summer is pretty high, and that is what happened.  They were left to choose between 2 or 3 starters at the deadline because they did nothing during free agency.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

3 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

Good thing they traded for Gray and Ryan ....

And Paddack, and signed Archer and Bundy

 

that’s the point isn’t it? When you go into last off-season with Maeda on the shelf, 2 Rookies and no one else in the rotation, you put yourself in a pickle when not every move you make is a home run.

They HAD to be aggressive on trades and accept more injury risk than some here on the boards may have agreed with.

i thought both Paddack and Mahle were the right moves at the time, but also not shocked either failed.

this season has been cursed…

[Squirrel]

1 minute ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

And Paddack, and signed Archer and Bundy

 

that’s the point isn’t it? When you go into last off-season with Maeda on the shelf, 2 Rookies and no one else in the rotation, you put yourself in a pickle when not every move you make is a home run.

They HAD to be aggressive on trades and accept more injury risk than some here on the boards may have agreed with.

i thought both Paddack and Mahle were the right moves at the time, but also not shocked either failed.

this season has been cursed…

They could have been in on the FA market. I’m actually okay with the trades they made for starters despite the results. But I am not as forgiving that attention was given to the BP. If they are going to rely on their BP as they have, then we need a BP filled with closer types

[h2oface]

On 9/4/2022 at 9:14 AM, dxpavelka said:

I love being surrounded by so many folks that know so much more than the folks getting paid to know stuff.

The sad thing is that something said with satire is actually true in many cases.

[KirbyDome89]

57 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Fair. I have no idea. They took chances, and paid lower prices on Maeda and Paddock just they been healthy. It didn't work. But maybe, just maybe, that's why the prices were what they were, and it just didn't work. If they'd have been trading for healthy, very good, pitchers at this rate, they'd be out of prospects.

I really don't think people are looking at the relative cost, and asking why it was so low ... There is a lot more going on than just what they bought. 

Yeah, no doubt the price is reflective, but I think that's a hollow defense, particularly when you're relying on a pitcher the way the Twins planned to with Mahle. 

[h2oface]

On 9/4/2022 at 10:34 AM, SkyBlueWaters said:

 I wouldn't ask that the media be too harsh in questioning them, but it's totally fair to ask what pitchers this FO sees at the front of a Twins rotation leading our excellent lineup deep into the playoffs.

Excellent lineup? The "excellent" lineup is pretty depleted.

[Mike Sixel]

8 minutes ago, KirbyDome89 said:

Yeah, no doubt the price is reflective, but I think that's a hollow defense, particularly when you're relying on a pitcher the way the Twins planned to with Mahle. 

I thought we were talking the process, not one guy now. Or did I misunderstand how the talk expanded? That's why I suggested we also need to look at the price paid for these guys. 

Mahle being hurt stinks. I'm very disappointed, as I really thought he'd be a difference maker. 

[h2oface]

6 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

How did the Twins blow this one so badly??

Have They? 

Was Steer or Encarnacion-Strand going to help us in the playoffs this year? 

Are Steer or Encarnacion-Strand guaranteed to be major league producers beyond this years? 

Is Mahle guaranteed to never pitch a decent major league inning forever more? 

Let me try some subsitutions here.....

Is Mahle going to help us in the playoffs this year?  (no)

Is Mahle guaranteed to be a major league producer beyond this year?  (no)

Are Steer or Encarnacion-Strand guaranteed to never be a decent major league player in the future?  (no)

Hey..... it works both ways!

 

 

[h2oface]

4 hours ago, bean5302 said:

You really feel Brusdar Graterol would have been more valuable to 2020's Cy Young runner up? Maeda having a solid (but unlucky) 2021 before going down with the UCL tear was unfortunate, but he's super cheap and has added more fWAR in just his down 2021 than Graterol has in his career so far. Graterol isn't a threat to be a starter, and that was really the big risk in dealing him. Maeda's still under contract for only $3MM next year. Meanwhile, Graterol appears to be a good middle reliever or maybe setup guy. I think Maeda was a very good trade, even considering the loss of 2022.

2020 season. 2 months. Real hard for me to use 2020 for anything except nothing compares to it and it was just 2 months. I guess you could compare it to a good 2 month streak in any season........ I would call 2021 for Maeda the worst of his career, not solid. Solid if you like very mediocre hinging on bad. Look at the numbers in 2021.

[gunnarthor]

I don't remember where I came down on the Mahle trade but I was probably ok with it. We gave up a lot but he was a good pitcher and that's the price. it was reasonable. But just because it's defensible doesn't mean it's ok. The Twins have made a lot of bad moves that were, on the surface, pretty defensible. But at some point, they need to pan out. We expected Mahle to give the Twins around 40 starts over two seasons, plus some playoff starts, and we aren't getting that.

[TwinsDr2021]

5 hours ago, bean5302 said:

I'm not nearly as big on Mahle as some other fans on the site, but I recognized what the Twins had to offer to secure an elite arm. They took a shot and it was a decent one considering the team's limitations on assets.

It's easy to feel like the responses were more negative or guarded than the grades, especially if you're mediocre on the move. After all, it's not as if the conversation was all absolute ecstatic cheers in the Mahle thread.

I was all in on the Mahle trade and still have hopes for it next year or fingers crossed in the playoffs.

But I think it fair to say at this point in time the trade sucks, they have gotten one good game out of him and at this point I don't care about the prospects given up, someday in the future people can figure out how it worked out in the end, but as of today (9/5) it sucks, simple as that.

I was hoping for a guy that pitched the last 11 games for the Reds. 100 pitchers, 6 plus innings, instead the twins have gotten 16.33, which means more bullpen innings and lesser starters pitching.

[USAFChief]

4 hours ago, Squirrel said:

 Whatever Franklin said about baseball he got it from Chief

Where do you think his most famous saying came from?

"A Brad Penny save will be a Brad Penny burn."

[KirbyDome89]

7 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

I thought we were talking the process, not one guy now. Or did I misunderstand how the talk expanded? That's why I suggested we also need to look at the price paid for these guys. 

Mahle being hurt stinks. I'm very disappointed, as I really thought he'd be a difference maker. 

We are, Mahle was just the most recent example.

I get appeal of the lower price threshold, but I don't see it as much of a defense for the moves not working out, particularly when the expectations set in place by the team, not just the fans, aren't reflective of that price. 

[jorgenswest]

28 minutes ago, KirbyDome89 said:

We are, Mahle was just the most recent example.

I get appeal of the lower price threshold, but I don't see it as much of a defense for the moves not working out, particularly when the expectations set in place by the team, not just the fans, aren't reflective of that price. 

I am curious how the expectations set in place by the team are different from other small to mid market teams. Where are the expectations coming from? I listen to the Sunday morning show and I don’t hear anything outrageous about expectations? My expectations went up due to their actions and moves in March but those are on my hopes and not something the team set in place. My expectations went up due to their actions at the deadline. Seems like expectations should be based on actions. 

[Richie the Rally Goat]

2 hours ago, Squirrel said:

They could have been in on the FA market. I’m actually okay with the trades they made for starters despite the results. But I am not as forgiving that attention was given to the BP. If they are going to rely on their BP as they have, then we need a BP filled with closer types

Agreed! Absolutely they should have been more aggressive in free agency. They should not have been surprised by the hot December free agent market, but seemingly were.

Also agreed on the bullpen sitch. Big whiff