Mahle for Steer/Hajjar/Encarnacion-Strand - How did the Twins blow this one so badly??

[dxpavelka]

1 hour ago, jjswol said:

Just because someone gets paid for doing something doesn't mean they are good at it or know what they are doing.

The rest of you don't either.

[Squirrel]

2 hours ago, dxpavelka said:

I love being surrounded by so many folks that know so much more than the folks getting paid to know stuff.

 

1 hour ago, jjswol said:

Just because someone gets paid for doing something doesn't mean they are good at it or know what they are doing.

 

24 minutes ago, dxpavelka said:

The rest of you don't either.

Before this back and forth goes any further, I’m going to say you both have a point here. I agree that those in the FO do know more than most of us. They have more information than we do, for one, so their decisions are made from more than speculation, assumption and emotion like that of the average fans, or even above average fans, as is the case at TD. ? However, the proof is in the pudding. While I have no doubts they know more than most of us, they still haven’t shown us that in results. I didn’t think the Twins would be ‘in the hunt’ (which, technically, they still are) this season, that only shows the weakness of the division. At the start of the season, I had the team finishing in the 80-84 range. In May the team gave me reason to hope, but I’m at a ‘shrug, whatever’ point now. However, the FO, despite knowing more, has missed the mark in more than a few instances. And that, frankly, surprises and annoys me. They are paid not only to know more, but to do better. Somewhere in their realm, things are not right in their evaluation of players and their injuries and their risk. jjswol said above it’s too soon to judge the trade and I tend to agree. However, given the number of ‘mistakes’ made so far in this FO’s era, I will remain skeptical until I see results. I hope they know something and both Paddack and Mahle come back next season and prove it. But until then, they have earned my skepticism and annoyance.

[jorgenswest]

If they gave the opportunity next summer I would make the same type of deal to try to get an impact starting pitcher.

There is a good chance that pitcher will have spent time on the injured list as Castillo, Montas and Mahle did and with all pitchers there would be worry about injury as the season closes. I still make the deal. I also make the deal for the two relievers.

It didn’t work out. They aren’t likely to see the upside of a healthy Mahle pitching in game 1 of a playoff series. That is the buyer risk of any deadline deal. I hope they are in position to take risks again next year.

[tony&rodney]

52 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

I hope they are in position to take risks again next year.

I do too, but a whole pile of things will need to go the Twins way if they are to be in a similar situation (game out in September) next season. It could happen with excellent health and performance. I expect all of Cleveland, Chicago, KC, and Detroit to be better next season and the balanced schedule will present challenges as well. This was the last of a lengthy period of cake schedules due to the AL Central.

[dxpavelka]

1 hour ago, Squirrel said:

 

 

Before this back and forth goes any further, I’m going to say you both have a point here. I agree that those in the FO do know more than most of us. They have more information than we do, for one, so their decisions are made from more than speculation, assumption and emotion like that of the average fans, or even above average fans, as is the case at TD. ? However, the proof is in the pudding. While I have no doubts they know more than most of us, they still haven’t shown us that in results. I didn’t think the Twins would be ‘in the hunt’ (which, technically, they still are) this season, that only shows the weakness of the division. At the start of the season, I had the team finishing in the 80-84 range. In May the team gave me reason to hope, but I’m at a ‘shrug, whatever’ point now. However, the FO, despite knowing more, has missed the mark in more than a few instances. And that, frankly, surprises and annoys me. They are paid not only to know more, but to do better. Somewhere in their realm, things are not right in their evaluation of players and their injuries and their risk. jjswol said above it’s too soon to judge the trade and I tend to agree. However, given the number of ‘mistakes’ made so far in this FO’s era, I will remain skeptical until I see results. I hope they know something and both Paddack and Mahle come back next season and prove it. But until then, they have earned my skepticism and annoyance.

ONE team will win it all each season.  The other 29 will leave many of their fans with skepticism and annoyance.  Doesn't make the fans right.  I can live with that.

[KirbyDome89]

2 hours ago, dxpavelka said:

ONE team will win it all each season.  The other 29 will leave many of their fans with skepticism and annoyance.  Doesn't make the fans right.  I can live with that.

You're whitewashing the varying levels of skepticism and annoyance with this "WS or bust," strawman...

[dxpavelka]

1 hour ago, KirbyDome89 said:

You're whitewashing the varying levels of skepticism and annoyance with this "WS or bust," strawman...

Still doesn't make those fans right. 

[nokomismod]

20 hours ago, Aichiman said:

And the -Strand.  That one, I think, will be the cruelest cut of all!  We've got to clear house this winter.  It'd be nice if the Polads sold the team, as well. 

For what reason? I don't think the ownership has been a problem at all except for maybe hiring Falvey and Levine. Terry Ryan had some complex where he thought he could get extra points for saving money on the roster but what I have heard was that ownership wasn't aligned with that approach.

[nokomismod]

Not sure if Royals would have traded with the Twins, but at the deadline I believe the Twins already knew Kiriloff was done for the year and Buxton was limited. Trading for Benintendi or Merrifield (although he has struggled for the Jays) would have done wonders for this lineup.

[bean5302]

I like the Mahle trade and still do because of the context of the situation.

The Twins desperately needed a good starter who could go deep into games and take the pressure off the bullpen for the regular season, but also a starter they wouldn't fear putting on the mound if the team makes the playoffs.

In addition, the Twins' farm system had taken a huge hit with their top prospects being traded off, performing poorly or injured. The prospects who have just recently graduated were also not setting the world on fire for various reasons. So, future value in the farm system was limited.

Finally, the Twins were blessed with an unexpectedly weak division performance where the White Sox were not running away with the division as expected. There was blood in the water and the Twins were leading the division with a good opportunity to put some distance on before a tough September schedule. When a division looks tough with Cleveland's farm looking pretty outstanding and the White Sox have a payroll near $200MM so they're in it to win it, sometimes you have to take your shots.

It may be worth noting that Mahle gave the Twins 2 - 6.0 six inning starts (162 pitches) where his fastball had normal velocities before the game where Mahle got pulled early so it's tough to blame the F.O. for Mahle's fatigue just based on that. Could there be an issue? Maybe. But, the fact Mahle made it to a 3rd start before the problem cropped up makes it tougher.

[bean5302]

Side note, really happy for Steer. What a great first game and he will always have that going forward no matter what happens.

[gil4]

10 hours ago, dxpavelka said:

I love being surrounded by so many folks that know so much more than the folks getting paid to know stuff.

Especially when almost everyone was all-in on Mahle at the time of the trade.

[ashbury]

19 minutes ago, gil4 said:

Especially when almost everyone was all-in on Mahle at the time of the trade.

There were some who noted the injury risk at the time, much as when Paddack was acquired.  No one has a crystal ball, and every athlete has the risk of injury at any time.  But I think enough red flags were present for both Mahle and Paddack that it's not pure second-guessing now.

[tony&rodney]

28 minutes ago, ashbury said:

But I think enough red flags were present for both Mahle and Paddack that it's not pure second-guessing now.

This is correct and there were also a number of suggestions of other options. While many were elated with the sequence of moves at the trade deadline as well as the offseason moves, others were not so enamored and voiced their feelings. However, it is only a visceral reaction at a moment in time and not a call for massive change. While not a fan, at all, of the crew in power I am just a fan and do not wish ill will towards our management ever. I just want to watch good baseball.

 

 

Nevertheless, we trudge onwards with hope for the next series.

[dxpavelka]

1 hour ago, gil4 said:

Especially when almost everyone was all-in on Mahle at the time of the trade.

Most were BEGGING for it.  He winds up on the IL and they ALL knew better.  Ridiculous.

[tony&rodney]

32 minutes ago, dxpavelka said:

Most were BEGGING for it.  He winds up on the IL and they ALL knew better.  Ridiculous.

Not everyone was a fan of the Mahle trade, more for the concern for his arm and skills than what was traded away. But, it is what it is and we hope the Twins play well in NYC.

[dxpavelka]

13 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

Not everyone was a fan of the Mahle trade, more for the concern for his arm and skills than what was traded away. But, it is what it is and we hope the Twins play well in NYC.

Not everyone but most.

[tony&rodney]

2 minutes ago, dxpavelka said:

Not everyone but most.

Agree, it was pretty much a 60/40 split which is most using 1.5 times as a barometer. I only want it noted that there were a number of people who had questions. Some were concerned about the loss of prospects but others ( myself included) were not sold on the quality of a guy like Mahle. To be transparent, I did like the acquisitions of Lopez and Fulmer which have had mixed returns thus far. I do acknowledge the difficulty of acquiring significant  players in late July as well. The big fail was after the 2019 season.

[jorgenswest]

One of the reason the Twins were able to acquire Mahle without giving up a global top 50 prospect was his health risk. The upside of a healthy Mahle is a vastly improved rotation for the playoffs. We didn’t get the upside. I prefer the risk of Mahle to trading for a starter to try to stabilize the back end but isn’t someone you want starting a playoff game. A healthy Mahle starts game 1 for the Twins.

There is reason to be concerned about the buyer side on any significant deadline deal. The solution is to not make deals or be a seller. 

[Mike h]

Benjamin Franklin said necessity never makes a good bargain. He was not talking about baseball trades but it applies. The Twins had a glaring need for a pitcher and they had to overpay.

To avoid this situation don't get caught in a position where you are desperate. I know- easier said than done.

 

[dxpavelka]

10 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

Agree, it was pretty much a 60/40 split which is most using 1.5 times as a barometer. I only want it noted that there were a number of people who had questions. Some were concerned about the loss of prospects but others ( myself included) were not sold on the quality of a guy like Mahle. To be transparent, I did like the acquisitions of Lopez and Fulmer which have had mixed returns thus far. I do acknowledge the difficulty of acquiring significant  players in late July as well. The big fail was after the 2019 season.

Acquiring significant players is difficult all the time, not just in late July.  If it wasn't everyone would be doing it all the time. 

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

10 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

Agree, it was pretty much a 60/40 split …….. The big fail was after the 2019 season.

Any idea where the people who didn’t voice an opinion on the Mahle trade came down on it?  

One good thing I might say for the front office is if they had to do the 2019 deadline over again, they might be more willing to trade Kirilloff and Larnach for Syndergaard. Mahle for two good hitting prospects and a pitcher seems equivalent to me to Syndergaard and two very good hitting prospects. 

[bean5302]

11 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

Agree, it was pretty much a 60/40 split which is most using 1.5 times as a barometer. I only want it noted that there were a number of people who had questions. Some were concerned about the loss of prospects but others ( myself included) were not sold on the quality of a guy like Mahle. To be transparent, I did like the acquisitions of Lopez and Fulmer which have had mixed returns thus far. I do acknowledge the difficulty of acquiring significant  players in late July as well. The big fail was after the 2019 season.

60/40? Here's a link to a Grade the Twins' Deadline. It was nowhere near 60/40 or even 80/20. 

 

92% A or B
6% C
1% D
0% F

Here's an article about Mahle in particular. Overwhelming positivity in the comments, with a couple guarded concerns. Nobody was really negative.

It's safe to say virtually the entire active poster base on the site deemed the trade acceptable to great.

 

[nicksaviking]

***Moderator Note***

Please refrain from the name calling, and inflammatory characterizations of other posters. This topic can be discussed civilly. 

[Riverbrian]

3 hours ago, Mike h said:

Benjamin Franklin said necessity never makes a good bargain. He was not talking about baseball trades but it applies.

 

I went to Middle School with Franklin. He was talking about baseball. ? 

[Riverbrian]

3 hours ago, Mike h said:

The Twins had a glaring need for a pitcher and they had to overpay.

To avoid this situation don't get caught in a position where you are desperate. I know- easier said than done.

 

Contention means competition and competition leads to desperation. 

The Twins could be 20 games up and they should still be shopping to get better. 

[Trov]

I think it is a little early to say it was blown so badly.  First, we do not know how Mahle will pan out with us over the rest of his team control, keeping in mind we have him next year.  Sure, early on he has been on IL twice with shoulder issues, which is not ideal, but even if he does not produce this year, he can pitch well for us next year and that needs to be evaluated in the trade. 

Second, we do not know what value the players we sent out will produce.  Steer is at MLB level and hit a HR and 2b in 9 at-bats with 3 walks.  Not a bad start at all.  But it is only 3 games, that does not make a career.  I expect he will be just fine.  Not sold on Encarnacion-Strand as a MLB player yet.  He is putting up big numbers at low levels, but there is a reason the experts have not moved him way up lists yet, they know there are still holes that higher levels may exploit.  Hajjar has done not much for new team yet.

The one thing that a lot of people never pay attention to when evaluating trades is what players were not included.  What do I mean by that?  We traded a utility IF with from what I have read decent defense but more bat than defense, most likely settles in at 2b or 3b, maybe OF.  We also traded a low level 3b or 1b guy that is all bat no defense.  Finally, a college pitcher that was having a good year overall in low minors for first year. 

Who do we have in our system that fills Steers position?  Polonco, Arrez, Miranda, Nick Gordon, Brooks Lee, Lewis, Austin Martin, Palacios.  All fill similar roll to Encarncion-Strand too, depending on power out put.  Point is we had a lot of depth at the exact positions we dealt from.  So if any of the players I list play and do better than the ones traded away, then the loss in their value is not as big of a deal.  I mean it is possible either of them would not crack the starting line up with the Twins because of players ahead of them.  We have a ton of college pitchers that are doing well and maybe Hajjar does fine, but he is not even in top 30 pospects of Reds, so for now experts are not sold on him, they may be wrong, but his first 2 games were not goos for new level and now has not pitched for a few weeks. 

[Mike Sixel]

The alternative was to add no starter.... they couldn't pay the price for Castillo. Montas had been hurt more recently.

This site would have excoriated the FO for not adding a starter. But when they did, and the risk didn't work yet ...

It was a good trade. You can make good decisions and still have bad outcomes. That's the reality of the universe. 

[Riverbrian]

How did the Twins blow this one so badly??

Have They? 

Was Steer or Encarnacion-Strand going to help us in the playoffs this year? 

Are Steer or Encarnacion-Strand guaranteed to be major league producers beyond this years? 

Is Mahle guaranteed to never pitch a decent major league inning forever more? 

 

 

 

[Game7-91]

 

The difference between trading for Castillo or Mahle was contract term and prospects. Seattle moved their #1, 3, 5 and low level pitcher for 2 months of Castillo, to chase a WC birth. Ballsy move, and paying off so far....so does Seattle have better medical risk assessment process, or just a bigger appetite for risk/reward? Maybe Seattle believed they were one piece away from being legit WS potential. Twins couldnt say thst, even privately. If Castillo goes down in the next 3 weeks does it would change nothing about how they assessed that risk at the time of trade.

Ditto for Twins, what matters is their risk assessment at time of trade.  If they missed something egregious on meds, then they need to fix their process. I've felt for years Twins have failed to properly identify and manage injuries. It needs to get fixed. But its too early to say if Mahle is a continuation of that or just bad luck.

Taking Mahle over Castillo was a hedged bet. The scope of Twins' acceptable risk was security/length, hedged by reasonable expectation of performance and lesser prospect capital.  It wasnt a bad bet, assuming there was no glaring red flag they chose to overlook. They rolled the dice, just like Seattle, and appear to have lost the short term. The longer term TBD.