3 Disappointing Seasons from Twins' Top Prospects

[bunsen82]

Where is the article about how many players have outplayed their rankings.  You would have at least 6 up to 12 players including those that were traded.  Headrick, Festa, (Hajjar, Encarnacion-Strand, Steer, Povich - all traded)  Raja, Varland, Celestino, Winder, Ryan,  Julien, Palacios, Helman, Mooney, Raya, Rodriguez.  This also doesn't consider other players that are doing well.   Overall the prospects played better than expected overall.  

[bean5302]

9 hours ago, Trov said:

Balazovic concerns me the most because clearly something is off with him.  My hopes is he figures it out during off season and he can bounce back.  Lucky we were never slotting him in to be in the rotation and have huge depth for next year as well.  

Martin is disappointing he did not take steps and may have regressed, but he also has been injured part of the year, and you never know how much of a nagging injury he had. He will never be a big power hitter, but hopefully he can be more of a line drive guy that hits the gaps for extra base hits. 

Canterino is not surprising as he came from Rice who love to burn their college arms out.  Hopefully after the recovery of TJ he will give us something. 

Canterino never pitched more than 99.1 innings for Rice, and he never averaged more than 6.2 innings per start, and less than 6.0 in his rookie year. The innings he pitched and batters he faced was never leading or close to leading the league.

It's also been 3 years now. 

[jkcarew]

We need to retire the “but prospect x is y years younger than the ave competition” thing. It has limited relevancy in the lower levels, but egregiously irrelevant at the AAA level where the majority of players are the opposite of prospects…they’re certified replacement-level players, (or less).

Balazovic is giving up a run per inning to the Tim Beckhams’s and Mark Contreras’s of professional baseball. Should it really mean anything that he is younger than them?  The most troubling thing is that he’s been consistently horrible all year…really no flashes, followed by a few catastrophes. Just outing after outing of alarming ineffectiveness consisting of control issues AND lots of home runs. The hope is that it all goes back to control, because nothing’s been working.

[h2oface]

Paralyzed by hope is an unfortunate place to be. Don't even bring up Cavaco and Javier (signed in the international draft in 2015 instead of Tatis Jr, Soto, Alvarez, Guerrero Jr, Giminez, Chisholm, and more success stories) among all the others mentioned.

The three of the OP..... my bet, sad as it may be.... stick a fork in them. All 3.

[DocBauer]

I agree with waiting to see on all listed. 

Balazovic has the frame, and stuff, to be an anchor in a rotation. He has shown stuff, development, and continued growth throughout his advancement and made top 100 lists for a reason. SOMETHING has happened in 2022 with his body and his head to mess him up. Even if "healthy" is he feeling discomfort? Did his mechanics get screwed up and his head isn't right? You just DON'T give up on a talented arm after a bad season. You look for a re-set.

We can argue all day long about Canterino and whether his arm was destined to implode due to college use or physical construction and it was only a matter of time. At this point, it doesn't matter. Healthy again after surgery, he still has a chance for a nice career, because a healthy Canterino has amazing stuff. Now, to be honest, despite amazing results we've all seen in the past, not everyone comes back. He could still be an outstanding stuff SP at age 26 with a shortened career, or a brilliant RP. The point is, either way, he can still have a fine career and be a PLUS arm either way, just not the length of a career hoped for or initially expected. That's a hell of a lot better than no career. In retrospect, I just wish the surgery had been done earlier.

The guy I'm most concerned about is Martin.  Were I in charge, I would have NEVER had him miss an entire year and then push him to AA. The Jay's made that mistake and the Twins added to it, after the fact, by acquiring him and making a lateral move with him. And to be fair, he WAS hitting and showing some bat control and ability, etc. 

Again, top prospect doesn't play for a year and then goes straight to AA AND is playing a position he's barely played before.

Contrast that to the Twins handling of Lee this year, a very comparable player, who just gets his feet wet in the FCL, and then jumps to A+ where he's expected to do well and IS doing well. Now, whether after instructs and the offseason he jumps straight to AA Wichita or spends a few weeks at CR is debatable and TBD. But he's going to be at AA soon, if not right away.

Compare that now to Marting not playing at all in 2020 and going straight to AA in 2021 and again, playing a mostly foreign position.

If someone can't see the basic difference regarding simple indoctrination to pro ball, I'm not sure what to tell say.

IMO, despite reports Martin is improving at SS, I'd be looking hard at what makes him COMFORTABLE. Find what makes him COMFORTABLE as a hitter and let him do THAT with continued advice and coaching to maximize his ability. And if he and you, as the Twins,  just see him as an OF who can cover 3B/2B, his previous positions, then MAKE THE MOVE and make him an OF with a few games here and there at 3B/2B to keep his hand in play as a fill-in. IMO, he's been messed around enough. Let him play the OF...which we're told he's natural at, and give up the SS experiment, and just let him play and bat.

I'd send him to the AFL and let him play the OF exclusively and just hit freely based on what feels natural. 

[bighat]

22 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

I forgot to add Aaron Sabato - lots of HRs but 215/337 in AA - our former first rounder continues to fall behind Wallner who had the same profile, but has advanced with potential to get to MN> 

How about Keoni Cavaco, the Twins 2019 #1 pick who is currently in his 2nd year at Fort Myers single-A ball. Hit .221 last year and is hitting .222 this year. Has never put together anything close to an encouraging season. 

[bighat]

8 hours ago, DocBauer said:

Let him play the OF...which we're told he's natural at, and give up the SS experiment, and just let him play and bat.

I'd send him to the AFL and let him play the OF exclusively and just hit freely based on what feels natural. 

Agree 100%. When you have a guy on the brink of doubting his abilities, let him play where he's comfortable. 

[weitz41]

Prospect development isn't linear. Disappointing seasons sure. Royce Lewis's 2019 season looks similar to Martin's 2022. Duran was constantly hurt in milb like Canterino.  Balazovic IDK...I don't think it's time to punt on any of them.

[mikelink45]

2 hours ago, bighat said:

How about Keoni Cavaco, the Twins 2019 #1 pick who is currently in his 2nd year at Fort Myers single-A ball. Hit .221 last year and is hitting .222 this year. Has never put together anything close to an encouraging season. 

He was a disappointment a long time ago. So I don't count him this year since I think I've given up on him

[bighat]

22 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

He was a disappointment a long time ago. So I don't count him this year since I think I've given up on him

Oh for sure - he's widely known as the biggest Twins draft bust in recent memory. So bad that people want to forget about him and have written him off already. Seems like a good kid, just had nowhere near the talent that anyone thought he did. 

[TwinsDr2021]

1 hour ago, mikelink45 said:

He was a disappointment a long time ago. So I don't count him this year since I think I've given up on him

He is 21 so he has 4 years to be the prospect the three in the article mentioned. </s>

Only in MN are we talking about being patient with prospects this old.

[bighat]

1 hour ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

He is 21 so he has 4 years to be the prospect the three in the article mentioned. </s>

Only in MN are we talking about being patient with prospects this old.

I totally agree - we got guys like Kirilloff and Larnach who will be 25 and 26 years old before they see action again. These aren't "young players"! They are supposed to be entering the prime years of their entire careers right now. Do we have to wait until they're 32 years old for either of them to hit 20 homers and get 75 RBI???  They should have been putting up those numbers LAST year, but they have combined to do jack squat. And injuries don't count as an excuse. It is what it is. "What might have happened" doesn't count.  

Yet here in MN we have people lining up to make excuses for these "young players". Embarrasing. 

Meanwhile half the other teams have 20, 21 and 22 year-old guys who are doing just fine, and a handful of them are tearing up the league. 

[MABB1959]

On 8/31/2022 at 8:02 AM, puckstopper1 said:

Martin has not panned out yet, but Berrios is not providing what Toronto expected either...

He is having a down year but would still be better than what we got.  His ERA is high but he gets further into a game than any of our pitchers.  I would WAY rather have him than what we got.  

[Charleo]

On 8/31/2022 at 10:21 AM, adjacent said:

I would say we need to have a little patience. Many were down on Gordon after a couple of bad years...and yesterday he practically won the game by himself for us. I am not saying that all 3 will succeed for the Twins, but, if you don't have to buy the hype for every prospect, you don't have to buy the doom either.

Agreed.  I was totally done with Gordon, and he has carved out a nice role as a 4th OF/utility INF (at least that's what he should be, if Twins were healthy).  I have no patience, which is reason #7854 that I'm not a MLB GM.