3 Disappointing Seasons from Twins' Top Prospects

[Cody Christie]

Every season some prospects break out to move into a team's long-term plans. Unfortunately, other prospects struggle, and their stock significantly falls. Here are three of the team's top prospects that have struggled in 2022.

Getting to the major leagues can be challenging even for baseball's best prospects. Some players work their entire lives to reach the big leagues, and others make their debut before their 20th birthday. All three names below had the potential to impact the Twins roster during the 2022 season, but poor performance and injuries have cast doubt on their top prospect rankings. 

Minnesota's farm system continues to drop in national rankings, and these three players take a small portion of the blame for the fall. So which prospects have seen their stock drop the most this season?

Austin Martin, SS/OF
TD Preseason Ranking: 1
Many national rankings pegged Martin as the Twins' top prospect entering the 2022 season. All three national prospect rankings placed him in their top-60 prospects, but he has fallen off those lists as they have been updated this season. Martin is repeating Double-A this season as a 23-year-old, where he is over a year younger than the average age of the competition. His biggest concern is the lack of power development throughout his professional career. Martin posted a 1.007 OPS in college, and his OPS dropped to .676 in 2022. Martin still has all of the tools to be an above-average hitter, and he needs to continue making adjustments in the minors' upper levels. 

Jordan Balazovic, SP
TD Preseason Ranking: 4
Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus included Balazovic at the backend of the top-100 lists entering the season. Balazovic missed time to start the 2022 season with a knee injury and has never looked right on the mound. In his first 17 appearances, he has allowed 50 earned runs in 49 2/3 innings. His strikeout rate is down (8.3 K/9), and his walk rate is up (4.7 BB/9). He is on the 40-man roster, but he has struggled so much at Triple-A that the Twins haven't been able to call him up. Luckily, he is over four years younger than the average age of the competition at Triple-A. Hopefully, he can call 2022 a lost season and get back on track this winter for an improved 2023. 

Matt Canterino, SP
TD Preseason Ranking: 6
Canterino may never be ranked as a top-100 prospect, but he may have the best stuff and highest ceiling of any pitching prospect in the organization. He has been unhittable with 13.8 K/9 and a 1.48 ERA in his career when on the mound. Unfortunately, he hasn't been able to pitch more than 37 innings in any season since turning pro due to various injuries. His 2022 season ended abruptly when the Twins announced Canterino would undergo Tommy John surgery. This injury means he will miss the rest of 2022 and the majority of 2023. Plenty of pitchers have come back strong after this surgery, and the Twins have to hope he can stay healthy moving forward. 

Are you worried about the future of these three players? Can they bounce back from poor 2022 campaigns? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. 

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[bighat]

Great write up. This is yet another reminder - especially for us fans - not to overvalue prospects. There are only a handful of blue-chip, sure things out there. And even those guys often don't deliver on expectations.

Too early to give up on the above mentioned players, obviously, but the clock is ticking. Martin is going to be a 24 or 25 year-old rookie even if he makes the show, and Balazovich is on the brink of demotion next spring.

 

[dxpavelka]

I guess it's time to do what the purple did yesterday with half their 2021 draft class--send 'em packing.  OR we could re-set, re-evaluate and work with them, even give them another year.  I've heard that sometimes folks have a down year one year and then proceed to bounce back and produce at a higher level the next.  Just a rumor, but worth looking into.

[wsnydes]

The frustrating part about this is how much the FO really needed guys like these to play a role in the big league clubs season.  Perhaps not a large role, but at least be there for depth.  Particularly in the pitching department.  Having a healthy Canterino and/or Balazovic added to the rotation or bullpen could have been huge given all of the injuries to the staff.

Hopefully they'll all rebound for next season.  Martin might not be as important as the other two, but you can never have too much talent.  

[mikelink45]

I think you hit the lowlights of expectations. In a different way I would add Winder because he made the show, he looked good and I expected so much more when he went down.

[arby58]

Baseball is probably the toughest sport to gauge how talent will translate into results - and these are excellent examples. A side note - Chase Petty, the 100 mph pitcher the Twins traded for Sonny Gray, is 0-6 with a 3.77 ERA for the high-A Dayton Dragons. Granted, he is still younger than most of the competition and may well turn into a great major league pitcher, but where would the Twins be this year without Gray (7-4, 3.04 ERA in 20 starts)? Answer: third place in the Division.

[mikelink45]

I forgot to add Aaron Sabato - lots of HRs but 215/337 in AA - our former first rounder continues to fall behind Wallner who had the same profile, but has advanced with potential to get to MN> 

[MABB1959]

Is Austin one of the great prospects we got for Berrios?  How is the other one doing?

[Senor Smoke]

Woods-Richardson has done better than Martin this year. He was pitching really well in AA but has been getting beat on a little bit in his 2 starts for the Saints. Currently, he is probably one of our top 2 pitching prospects and there is even the possibility they bring him up in September.

 

 

[puckstopper1]

9 minutes ago, MABB1959 said:

Is Austin one of the great prospects we got for Berrios?  How is the other one doing?

Woods-Richardson is having an OK year IMO.

Martin has not panned out yet, but Berrios is not providing what Toronto expected either...

[Whitey333]

Excellent article.  Prospects are just that until if and when they prove otherwise.  Most never pan out.

[Trov]

Balazovic concerns me the most because clearly something is off with him.  My hopes is he figures it out during off season and he can bounce back.  Lucky we were never slotting him in to be in the rotation and have huge depth for next year as well.  

Martin is disappointing he did not take steps and may have regressed, but he also has been injured part of the year, and you never know how much of a nagging injury he had. He will never be a big power hitter, but hopefully he can be more of a line drive guy that hits the gaps for extra base hits. 

Canterino is not surprising as he came from Rice who love to burn their college arms out.  Hopefully after the recovery of TJ he will give us something. 

[tony&rodney]

I had suggested acquiring talent last winter and included all three of Balazovic, Martin, and Canterino in trades because their value/status was high. However, after the poor results of this summer I see success as a distinct possibility for all three as Twins. Balazovic has good stuff but lacks command, control, and maturity. He has potential that can be achieved with patience from the team, fans, and especially the player. Martin needs to adopt the Luis Arraez style of hitting and forget all attempts to become a power hitter. The physical talent is apparent and athletic players that field and hit can carve out a place as regulars in MLB. Canterino will finally be free from the constant routine of trying to regain health from his frayed arm. Surgery could be a total rebirth for him and we could see a strong return in as soon as 2024 from Canterino. Despite wanting to trade all three last offseason, I see a bright future for all of these guys with the Twins.

[Brandon]

It’s Always Something !  At least that’s my motto.  Always Somebody injured, Always somebody ineffective, Always someone going backwards, Always next year……Always Something!  
 

with that said developing players is a numbers game.  That’s why we need lots of prospects.  Having prospects like Lee is nice but really we need 10-15 solid prospects to develop 2-3 players a season.  Players don’t make it for a variety of reasons including injury, too much of a grind, lack of talent, coaching, and so many more.  As long as we are continuing to develop players at 2-3 per year to the majors….

[Karbo]

I don't know what to make of Balozivic. He has looked awful this year. Is there something physically wrong? Martin should just ignore all the talk about hitting for more power. Be the player he is. I'll take a guy that hits .300 with no power as long as he can play defense.

[MTV]

I trust Canterino will make it, he has the stuff of a big-leaguer, he just needs to stay on the field. I think Balazovic has potential to be a great major leaguer but needs to mature at AAA, maybe try a relief role in September. Martin Worries me, both with his incredibly questionable defense and struggling offense, I think the T’s should dump him.

[roger]

Of the three, my hope is that Canterino will return from TJ and become the pitcher we hoped for.  Question, Cody.  He has been injured since joining the Twins.  Are his previous injuries related to the elbow and surgery should fix all the problems he has been dealing with?  Or were his previous injuries unrelated to the elbow and we could expect more problems going forward?

Very disappointed in Balazovic, who looked so good last summer when in that 25-30 inning stretch of dominance.  Don't know what to expect from Martin.  Hopefully, he works hard this off-season and develops into a productive player in 2023.

[Dman]

1 hour ago, tony&rodney said:

I had suggested acquiring talent last winter and included all three of Balazovic, Martin, and Canterino in trades because their value/status was high. However, after the poor results of this summer I see success as a distinct possibility for all three as Twins. Balazovic has good stuff but lacks command, control, and maturity. He has potential that can be achieved with patience from the team, fans, and especially the player. Martin needs to adopt the Luis Arraez style of hitting and forget all attempts to become a power hitter. The physical talent is apparent and athletic players that field and hit can carve out a place as regulars in MLB. Canterino will finally be free from the constant routine of trying to regain health from his frayed arm. Surgery could be a total rebirth for him and we could see a strong return in as soon as 2024 from Canterino. Despite wanting to trade all three last offseason, I see a bright future for all of these guys with the Twins.

I tend to agree.  Of the three Canterino can still come back and be an elite pitcher.  I still kind of think he will end up a pen arm given his age and recovery time but he could be an elite one.

I really think Martin will have a bounce back year next year.  He has a good eye at the plate and good bat to ball skills.  I am a little concerned teams have shifted him and he is not getting those hits up the middle he used to get.  He also is one of best base stealers we have in the system.  I know that is not a coveted trait anymore but it can help especially when you need to push a run across late in the game.  I wouldn't give up on him just yet.

Of the three Balazovich worries me the most. Lot's of evaluators said long lever's can make control of pitches difficult and it seems like that is coming true.  Balazovich has the stuff to be successful but if he can't control it he will never make it.  I am surprised there has been very little improvement the entire year.  I don't know if he comes out of this funk or not but have to give him another try next year to see if he can.  He has too much potential to just throw away at this point.

At any rate I agree I think we need some patience yet with these three and IMO I think they will be worth the wait.

[Dennesey55347]

Twins top rounds draft history hasn't been very good at all, especially when it comes to big time RBI producers or expectations exceeders. 

[Sean.h]

2 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

I forgot to add Aaron Sabato - lots of HRs but 215/337 in AA - our former first rounder continues to fall behind Wallner who had the same profile, but has advanced with potential to get to MN> 

The only surprise about Sabato is that the Twins FO used a 1st round draft pick on him. They seem to have this horrible urge to use top draft picks on HR-or-nothing no-defense corner IF/OFs.

[adjacent]

I would say we need to have a little patience. Many were down on Gordon after a couple of bad years...and yesterday he practically won the game by himself for us. I am not saying that all 3 will succeed for the Twins, but, if you don't have to buy the hype for every prospect, you don't have to buy the doom either.

[Rosterman]

Last season wanted them to push Balazovic to AAA St. Paul. This season, I wished they had returned him to AA Wichita to work out whatever he needed to work out. They have to keep him on the 40-man and hope for a rebound.

Martin, we forget, is only in his second minor league season, skipping any play in the lowly minors (because he exccelled at collegiate ball). I think the Twins need to make a hard decision on where they wish him to play.

Canterino, sadly, will need to be protected on the 40-man, but will miss all of next season.

[Mike Sixel]

I keep wondering if Balazovich is in his head, like Rick Ankiel. 

Martin is the biggest bummer for me. I really thought he was Arraez with speed and defense. I hope he goes back to getting hits and stops thinking about power. 

[Steve Lein]

4 hours ago, arby58 said:

Baseball is probably the toughest sport to gauge how talent will translate into results - and these are excellent examples. A side note - Chase Petty, the 100 mph pitcher the Twins traded for Sonny Gray, is 0-6 with a 3.77 ERA for the high-A Dayton Dragons. Granted, he is still younger than most of the competition and may well turn into a great major league pitcher, but where would the Twins be this year without Gray (7-4, 3.04 ERA in 20 starts)? Answer: third place in the Division.

The Cedar Rapids Kernels knocked him around last night. ERA is 5.26 thus far with Dayton. Decent peripheral stats that portend good things. But then I look at Andrew Painter.

 

[Steve Lein]

3 hours ago, Senor Smoke said:

Woods-Richardson has done better than Martin this year. He was pitching really well in AA but has been getting beat on a little bit in his 2 starts for the Saints. Currently, he is probably one of our top 2 pitching prospects and there is even the possibility they bring him up in September.

 

 

Having watched a lot of SWR, I think he's been great this year.

Has not turned 22 yet and is in triple-A. His first start was a bit rough, but his second was fantastic, don't let the line fool you.

 

[Cornholio]

I think Balazovic and Martin have been banged up. I have hope both will come back stronger next year. The strange thing with Canterino is I have never heard that there is anything wrong with his UCL. They just ran out of other things it could be, so they will repair his UCL. Doesn’t seem like the most sound strategy. 

[RJA]

I think Martin needs to relax and play the game.  I am not sure if he is trying to adjust his approach due to coaching suggestions, or is just putting pressure on himself, but he has to follow Baldelli's advice to the Twins before the win streak started and just go out and play and forget everything (ok, I cleaned it up a bit).  It may be a situation like Buxton experienced when everyone was trying to tell him what to do and he finally just said the heck with it, and did his own thing.  If he is still struggling next year, then I will worry.  Balazovic looks totally out of sync, whether it is injury related or in his head, he needs to start fresh next year and try to build momentum.  He has great stuff.  Canterino will be fine.  Surgery actually overdue.  But, there is no denying that they all have been disappointments in their own way.

[bean5302]

5 hours ago, arby58 said:

Baseball is probably the toughest sport to gauge how talent will translate into results - and these are excellent examples. A side note - Chase Petty, the 100 mph pitcher the Twins traded for Sonny Gray, is 0-6 with a 3.77 ERA for the high-A Dayton Dragons. Granted, he is still younger than most of the competition and may well turn into a great major league pitcher, but where would the Twins be this year without Gray (7-4, 3.04 ERA in 20 starts)? Answer: third place in the Division.

Chase Petty last 4 starts at A+ as a 19yr old  = 3.06 ERA, 2.29 FIP, 13.25 K/9 (35.6%), 1.53 BB/9 (4.1%), 0.96 WHIP. He is dominating high A right now, and he's looking like a true potential ace despite his first A+ start hiccup. It's not like anybody can say he'll continue to dominate since sometimes things just don't pan out (Balazovic). The false dilemma is strong on the Gray or Petty choice around here. You could have both. Or you could have Petty and a different starter. I'm sure the Reds didn't say "Petty or NOTHING!!!" 
 

[bean5302]

52 minutes ago, Cornholio said:

I think Balazovic and Martin have been banged up. I have hope both will come back stronger next year. The strange thing with Canterino is I have never heard that there is anything wrong with his UCL. They just ran out of other things it could be, so they will repair his UCL. Doesn’t seem like the most sound strategy. 

He had a strained UCL last year. He had a strained UCL this year. The strain he had this year eventually required surgery.

[SwainZag]

I still have hope for Martin.  With being a college player and missing 2020, he is only in his 2nd season in the minors.  His age is a little concerning, but I hope they are willing to be patient with him.