Contemplating Rocco Baldelli’s Future with the Twins

[Cody Christie]

Minnesota’s strong start to the season seemed to change the outlook for the 2022 campaign. The dog days of summer have been cruel to the Twins, which have some questioning Rocco Baldelli’s future with the club. 

 

Rocco Baldelli is nearing the end of his fourth season at the helm of the Minnesota Twins. His first year as manager couldn’t have gone much better as he helped guide the team to 101 wins and a division title. MLB named him the AL Manager of the Year, and it seemed like the team was heading in a positive direction. 

During his second season, the COVID pandemic impacted nearly every aspect of the game, from spring training through the playoffs. Baldelli guided the Twins to a second consecutive division title even with all the distractions in 2020. He won 60% or more of his games in each of his first two seasons, but then the wheels came off in 2021. 

Last season was an unmitigated disaster from the start of the season. Minnesota went 9-15 in April and ended up with one month (August) when the team had a winning record. It didn’t seem to matter what buttons he pushed during the season’s first half, but the team didn’t quit on him. Even as the team headed for a last-place finish, the club went 29-28 from the start of August until the season’s end. Young pitchers like Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober also gave hope to an improved 2022 Twins roster.

Entering the 2022 season, most projection systems had the Twins pegged to finish around .500. By the end of May, those expectations had changed because Minnesota went 30-21 to start the year. Unfortunately, the Twins have been playing below .500 since that point and have little margin for error over the season’s final month. Even with altered expectations, Minnesota still has an opportunity to make the playoffs for the third time in four seasons under Baldelli. 

The way the season has played out is one of the most frustrating things for fans. Minnesota made a splash by signing Carlos Correa to a giant contract shortly after the lockout ended. Correa has provided leadership, but his on-field performance has been below his typical level, which isn’t something Baldelli can control.

A manager can only be as good as the roster he is given, and the Twins roster had some evident flaws from the season’s start. Minnesota’s pitching staff had holes and injuries, and poor play only magnified those flaws. The front office tried to remedy those issues at the trade deadline, and the pitching staff has improved in recent weeks. However, the line-up has struggled to score runs, and the team is struggling to stay in playoff contention. 

When a team plays well, a manager will get credit for pushing all the right buttons. When a team struggles, a manager gets most of the blame. Injuries have dramatically impacted Minnesota’s lineup as this roster would look significantly different with a healthy Ryan Jeffers, Alex Kirilloff, Trevor Larnach, and Royce Lewis. That being said, every team deals with injuries, and the best managers find ways to win games even when injuries occur, especially those managers of the high-salaried teams.  

Luckily, the front office won’t be forced into deciding until this winter. Minnesota has only had four different managers since Tom Kelly took the reins near the end of the 1986 season. It seems unlikely for the Twins to go in a different direction at the manager position as this front office picked Baldelli, and he guided the team to multiple division titles. The Twins may turn it on and end the year strongly, but a poor finish may have fans calling for new leadership in the dugout. 

Do you think Baldelli’s future with the club is in jeopardy? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. 

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[Karbo]

IMO, Rocco's future hinges on the last month of the season. If they can win the division they will probably keep him. If they lose it, he should be gone. It's been a terrible few months that aren't really all his fault, but the way he has handled the pitching staff has been hard to watch. He continued to march out Pagan no matter how bad things went. He gets his mind bent on all the stats, and doesn't seem to have a feel for the game. A lot of the problem has to be laid at the feet of the FO also. I'm not going to blame much onj injuries, because truth be told, all teams are dealing with them. The fact that the Twins had some bats in the minors that were able to step up and help is huge. Unfortunately, the arms weren't as ready to do the same.

[SwainZag]

IMO the seat under Rocco isn't even a little warm.

[farmerguychris]

I have no problem with the way he manages.  He is new school, which aligns well with the current Front Office in using science and stats to determine actions taken during games.  I know a lot of people don't like the 'managing by spreadsheet' way of making decisions - but its exactly how teams like Tampa are so good every year without spending money like the NY or LA teams.  

To be more successful, he needs only 2 things - better health (he's tried to give players days off to heal up, which many fans hate), and better players.  I don't think the FO did a good job before this season started getting him the pitchers he needed to be successful in either the starters, or the in the pen.  The FO knew they were going to be pulling starters several times before they faced batters for a 3rd time - they should have known the pen would have been tested and invested more in that before the season started so we didn't need to trade the assets we did at the deadline to finally get some stability on the back end.

[LastOnePicked]

We've hashed this through on another thread. Personally, I'm pretty sour on Rocco's performance over the last two years, and I'm ready for the club to take on new leadership in the dugout. However, the team is turning it on again, and it's possible that he's doing something to help extend meaningful games into September. I've said it before, but I'm happy to be wrong.

But, it's this line of thinking that pushes my buttons: "Correa has provided leadership, but his on-field performance has been below his typical level, which isn’t something Baldelli can control." That strikes me as a strawman argument. No one thinks that a manager can "control" a player's performance. But can a manager influence performance, inspire, motivate and set players up for success? Absolutely. Rocco's team had the chance to nearly put the Guardians away for good in the mid-summer. They faltered. Rocco's teams often stumble in late innings. They wither against teams like the Yankees and Dodgers. When the pressure is on, I typically see more fear than fight in this club.

Gleeman often plays this card, too. "What do people think, that Rocco tells the players not to get a hit with runners in scoring position?" It's such a dumb argument - no one critical of Rocco thinks this. What we get concerned about are long stretches of sloppy play and a weak resolve from players at the plate and in the field when the going gets tough. Is it the roster? Maybe. If so, why isn't Rocco more vocal about what he needs? And why does he keep returning to the same reliever when it's clear they're busted? He doesn't seem to be able to outsmart an opponent or steal wins.

I've come to agree with other posters - he's probably safe for 2023. But barring some great swing in the team's overall performance next year, it really should be his last - at least as a manager here.

[TwinsDr2021]

20 minutes ago, SwainZag said:

IMO the seat under Rocco isn't even a little warm.

I agree with this, the seats under the FO will get warm before his and rightfully so. (And I am not a fan of Rocco)

[Squirrel]

We had a lengthy discussion in the Twins Talk forum on this exact same question within the past week ... Rocco's future; in fact the title of that thread was just that. If anyone wants to catch up with the comments made in that thread, here is the link.

https://twinsdaily.com/forums/topic/58604-rocco-baldellis-future/?_rid=7

 

[Teddy]

I don't the seat under the FO or Baldelli is even remotely warm. COVID delayed the FO's timeline for developing a sustainable pipeline of pitching prospects (ala the Cleveland model), but it's hard to deny the improvement in the quality of young arms they're assembling over what was in the cupboard when Falvine arrived.

I've read elsewhere that a team needs ten solid pitching prospects to hope that three pan out as solid MLB arms. That seems to be the model the FO is following, and I'm on board with it. The FO may need one more year of the Bundys & Archers of the world, but in a couple of years, the rotation should be really solid with more young arms in the pipeline. 

 

[TwinsDr2021]

5 minutes ago, Teddy said:

I don't the seat under the FO or Baldelli is even remotely warm. COVID delayed the FO's timeline for developing a sustainable pipeline of pitching prospects (ala the Cleveland model), but it's hard to deny the improvement in the quality of young arms they're assembling over what was in the cupboard when Falvine arrived.

I've read elsewhere that a team needs ten solid pitching prospects to hope that three pan out as solid MLB arms. That seems to be the model the FO is following, and I'm on board with it. The FO may need one more year of the Bundys & Archers of the world, but in a couple of years, the rotation should be really solid with more young arms in the pipeline. 

 

I would argue it has be less about Covid and more about about injuries and development of their pitchers. Other teams have seem to deal with the Covid year much better.

[Unwinder]

I'm always interested in reading articles about Baldelli, but more than any subject in baseball, I need to skip the comment section for the sake of my sanity.

[Minderbinder]

Meh, I'll wait until the season's over to assess fully.  Not only was Rocco dealt a faulty hand at the beginning of this season, but this team has also had an IL list longer than the phone book.  The Correa deal signaled all-in for 2022, but this organization's development track is clearly pointing for 2023 and beyond.  Right now, I"m betting Correa and Rocco will be in our dugout in 2023.

[mikelink45]

1 hour ago, Teddy said:

I don't the seat under the FO or Baldelli is even remotely warm. COVID delayed the FO's timeline for developing a sustainable pipeline of pitching prospects (ala the Cleveland model), but it's hard to deny the improvement in the quality of young arms they're assembling over what was in the cupboard when Falvine arrived.

I've read elsewhere that a team needs ten solid pitching prospects to hope that three pan out as solid MLB arms. That seems to be the model the FO is following, and I'm on board with it. The FO may need one more year of the Bundys & Archers of the world, but in a couple of years, the rotation should be really solid with more young arms in the pipeline. 

 

 

[Boom Boom]

I think it's a little ironic for a team to blame their state of play on injuries when that team's marquee player is Byron Buxton.  

As for Rocco, I think if he was shown the door, the FO would hire a manager with very similar in-game strategy.  So it would probably be a sideways move.

[rv78]

Unfortunately NO. He's got 1 more year on his contract and I expect they will keep him around for the 2023 season especially since he's also of the same mindset as Falvine. 2023 will be the determining season. If both Rocco and Falvine don't take the club to the next level such as a deep run in the playoffs in 2023 they both may be gone, as they should be.

[roger]

I have a hard time liking almost anything he does.  Lineup construction, batting order, bullpen use, and on and on.  Don't like what appears to be using analytics to the point that baseball sense is forgotten.  Loved TK, enjoyed Gardy and thought Molitor was a smart baseball man. 

With that said, I will be surprised, pleasantly, should there be a change at year's end.  Expect there will be no chance should the Twins make the playoffs, nor should there be.  If they fall flat, maybe, but still a long shot. 

[Shaitan]

lol. The team won 73 games in 2021 and will match that total in early August this year.

They are, at worst, progressing from last to third place in a single year.

Rocco's job is secure unless he goes on some kind of Aaron Rogers or Charlie Sheen like self-destructive rampage.

[Blyleven2011]

I say get rid of the manager and save some money for the bullpen  and let the players manage and play  the game ....

Seriously  : the FO  and manager have their own plan , they don't even come close to moneyball teams of Oakland and Tampa  ,,,

Those two teams know when to trade their players with top value for prospects of top value  that keep there window of competition open  ...

I'll say this again again , if Rocco stays he needs to implement new school with old school  to be a more successful manager ..

[old nurse]

Unless the FO needs to throw someone under the bus to save their own jobs Rocco is safe. His guarantee is up after this year although he does have 2 option yearsThe FO tends to stick with their people until it looks totally hopeless. See Matt Shoemaker. Anyone hired other to replace Baldelli will be a similar manager. There is no gain for them to switch unless the bus is barreling down on the FO. That bus is actually a Brinks truck. If it is not bringing Pohlad some cash from Target field there will be a new direction for the FO. It is just a matter of when. The FO may get a pass for this year, but next year may be crucial. If the truck is empty heads will roll

[terrydactyls]

While reading this article, a question popped up.  Does the staff at Twins Daily archive past articles and comments?  I would love to get an idea of what readers thought of Baldelli's management style in 2019 and 2020 when the Twins were winning as compared to 2021 and 2022 when they are struggling.  I doubt his technique has changed but have the opinions about these techniques shifted?

[KnoblauchWasFramed]

Whoever was involved with the discussion and then decision to put Royce Lewis in CF should no longer be a part of this team.  That was literally something you do in MLB The Show 22.  Never, in reality, do you take your prized prospect who has finally started to pay off with his bat and glove and send him back down to AAA to learn how to play CF in one week after he's played SS his ENTIRE career.  This was and should be considered the biggest a$$clown move in the history of the team.  It's right up there with trading Rogers the day before the season started for a broken SP and a busted RP.

Anyway, as for Rocco, the team can steal bases, they can't throw runners out, the Third Base Coach is a clown show as I've never seen that many runners get thrown out at the plate or make that many baserunning errors, the team can't bunt and has issues moving runners over.  It's completely all or nothing with Rocco.  "3 RUN HRs OR BUST" should be this teams motto.  Because when the team isn't hitting home runs they literally can't score.  Rocco either doesn't know how to play small ball to manufacture runs when the balls aren't flying into the stands or worse, his spreadsheet doesn't allow for it and he can't deviate from the spreadsheet no matter what's actually happening on the field.  

And his horrible handling of the pitching staff and bullpen from Day One have never improved or even developed over time based on the current game situation.  Not only that, it's going to hurt the ability to bring in quality SPs in free agency because why would anyone with self respect come to a situation where a Manager's spreadsheet determines if you can pitch the 6th inning and not your actual abilities.  

Unfortunately Rocco will be here next year, along with the FO who still can't pull off a quality draft beyond the first overall pick.  Just look back at all of the reaches they've made in the last few drafts.  If they were so advanced and smart shouldn't a majority of these "reaches" be contributing to the team by now instead of either being on another team's system or out of the game all together???  

[Five minute major]

There should be no future with Rocco.  They will never win big games with him.  Period.  Pin this post.  

[Blyleven2011]

2 hours ago, KnoblauchWasFramed said:

 as for Rocco,  

As for 2019 , players had career years and Rocco's job was easy , Rocco managed a disasterest 2019 playoff ,,, 

2020 he still had some decent  hitters but had to manage , again he was a disaster in the playoffs ...

2021 he was a complete failure on managing  every aspect of the game but second half got alittle better but really no competitive baseball ...

2022 he has demonstrated to the fans he just doesn't care if the fans favor him or not and will not deviate from the plan ...

The plan,  the plan,  the plan ... smiles everyone  ....

I will not cut him any slack on his style of managing  .

some players will leave by trade or free agency this off season and I wouldn't be surprised of negative comments from them ...

There might be one player that demands a trade after the season too ...

[rwilfong86]

2 hours ago, Five minute major said:

There should be no future with Rocco.  They will never win big games with him.  Period.  Pin this post.  

If they miss the playoffs, they need to move on. If they make the playoffs as a higher seed and get swept at home, they need to move on. If they win a series I think he stays.

[BD57]

The managers who keep winning even though the team "has injuries" have DEEP rosters.

Our roster isn't "deep."  

This team is better than last year (yeah, I know .. not a huge leap).

IMO, it's also better than "results you could expect":

• Preseason predictions don't factor in "unknown injuries which will inevitably occur."  Those predictions had the Twins as a .500 team (+/-)
• We've had a boatload of injuries . . . and yet, we're still above .500 at the end of August.

I'd love to see where we'd be with a healthy Royce Lewis, etc.

[miller761]

Do not understand him. Tonight he brings Archer back for the 5th inning after getting hit hard in previous inning. Most every game Archer goes 4. Had to bring a reliever into a messy inning and gave up the lead. Thielbar can only save so many innings for the guy. Give him a clean slate to work with and go from there. Would love to hear the explanation on that. 

[Markdumont25]

Count me among the group that is occasionally frustrated/confused by his decision making... That being said I don't think you can make any decision about his future until we see how this season ends up... There's still a very good chance we make the playoffs and if we do hard to say he doesn't deserve at least another year

[bighat]

19 hours ago, SwainZag said:

IMO the seat under Rocco isn't even a little warm.

Correct. 

All he's done is win 2 division titles and will likely have the team finishing over .500 in 3-out-of-4 years at the helm. Whether the seat should be hot is an argument, but it's definitely not. If the Twins have a bad year next year, let's talk. FWIW I think that players love the guy, and that goes a long way. 

Some memorable managing moments this year include the way he handled the Gary Sanchez blocked plate call (do we need to see more of that Rocco?) as well as the team's 6-game losing streak in August, where he showed that he was unable motivate the team to be competitive even in the season's most important moments. 

[Brushback101]

14 hours ago, KnoblauchWasFramed said:

Whoever was involved with the discussion and then decision to put Royce Lewis in CF should no longer be a part of this team.  That was literally something you do in MLB The Show 22.  Never, in reality, do you take your prized prospect who has finally started to pay off with his bat and glove and send him back down to AAA to learn how to play CF in one week after he's played SS his ENTIRE career.  This was and should be considered the biggest a$$clown move in the history of the team.  It's right up there with trading Rogers the day before the season started for a broken SP and a busted RP.

Anyway, as for Rocco, the team can steal bases, they can't throw runners out, the Third Base Coach is a clown show as I've never seen that many runners get thrown out at the plate or make that many baserunning errors, the team can't bunt and has issues moving runners over.  It's completely all or nothing with Rocco.  "3 RUN HRs OR BUST" should be this teams motto.  Because when the team isn't hitting home runs they literally can't score.  Rocco either doesn't know how to play small ball to manufacture runs when the balls aren't flying into the stands or worse, his spreadsheet doesn't allow for it and he can't deviate from the spreadsheet no matter what's actually happening on the field.  

And his horrible handling of the pitching staff and bullpen from Day One have never improved or even developed over time based on the current game situation.  Not only that, it's going to hurt the ability to bring in quality SPs in free agency because why would anyone with self respect come to a situation where a Manager's spreadsheet determines if you can pitch the 6th inning and not your actual abilities.  

Unfortunately Rocco will be here next year, along with the FO who still can't pull off a quality draft beyond the first overall pick.  Just look back at all of the reaches they've made in the last few drafts.  If they were so advanced and smart shouldn't a majority of these "reaches" be contributing to the team by now instead of either being on another team's system or out of the game all together???  

Copy that!!!

[Aerodeliria]

I think we should discuss Baldelli's future next week too. ?

[Whitey333]

I'm sure Rocco will be back.  I don't really care for him as a manager.  But the FO hired him to produce some of the most bizarre and boring baseball I've seen the past two years.  His inability to do in game managing and adjustments is ultra frustrating.  His commitment to the plan is intoxicating.  The plan is more important than the game itself to him.  His lineups, pitching decisions, strategy, are strange at best.  IMO he has very little feel for the game.  And I suggest the players probably do like him.  There is very little accountability for the players performance.  Rocco will be back.  I just hope at sometime he combined the spreadsheet philosophy with some old school on field managing style.