Correa and the SS market

[mikelink45]

The price we are paying Correa and the production he has given over the season - not just the last two series - have me wondering about the wisdom of the collective front offices, again.  The frenzy over SS signing last year was amazing.   Somehow Correa fell out and fell into our hands at the most exorbitant of short term contracts.  Of course short team is better than long term - how many of those signed last year will stay at SS for the duration of their contracts?  By the way, two are now playing 2B which is not supposed to be as costly a position.

Right now Correa has the best seasonal Stats Correa 279/355/439/794 Although Corey Seagar might have an argument Corey Seagar 257/334/476/810.

Trevor Story 228/290/423/712 and Semien 238/298/420/708  are both playing 2B.  Tatis – injured and then suspended and Lindor 246/341/442/783

For comparison our in one door out the other SS Kiner-Falefa is 262/310/310/625    

I don't care how MLB spends its funny money, but was this just a race for egos?  

It would be nice to have Correa back - despite his contract and he must be looking at the group that he will be mixed with the next round.

So is a good SS really worth so much?  I have to say none of these players look like they are on the HOF track to me, but then with their money they probably do not care. 

[RJA]

Great post.  I think there is a tendancy to overrate current players with respect to their HOF potential, especially when they are on one of the big name winning clubs and/or having good years.  And, I think the media biggies tend to push this sort of narrative during free agency.  Of the group of shortstops you mention, I think Correa is clearly the best, as even in a year like this when he is not at his best offensively, his defense and game awareness make him special.  IF he continues to perform for another 5 years plus, he could be HOF material IMHO.  I think shortstop is one of the three most important postions on the field, along with CF and catcher, but I think it is a little less important now in the era of shifts than it was in the old days, but that may change if shifts are banned or regulated going forward.  I would love to have Correa back so long as the FO doesn't think they can stand pat if he does return.  Like last year, this offseason could be interesting.  As for the salaries, it is just hard for me to even relate to those kind of numbers :).

[Trov]

1 hour ago, mikelink45 said:

The price we are paying Correa and the production he has given over the season - not just the last two series - have me wondering about the wisdom of the collective front offices, again.  The frenzy over SS signing last year was amazing.   Somehow Correa fell out and fell into our hands at the most exorbitant of short term contracts.  Of course short team is better than long term - how many of those signed last year will stay at SS for the duration of their contracts?  By the way, two are now playing 2B which is not supposed to be as costly a position.

Right now Correa has the best seasonal Stats Correa 279/355/439/794 Although Corey Seagar might have an argument Corey Seagar 257/334/476/810.

Trevor Story 228/290/423/712 and Semien 238/298/420/708  are both playing 2B.  Tatis – injured and then suspended and Lindor 246/341/442/783

For comparison our in one door out the other SS Kiner-Falefa is 262/310/310/625    

I don't care how MLB spends its funny money, but was this just a race for egos?  

It would be nice to have Correa back - despite his contract and he must be looking at the group that he will be mixed with the next round.

So is a good SS really worth so much?  I have to say none of these players look like they are on the HOF track to me, but then with their money they probably do not care. 

The thing you need to remember about SS is that it is generally not a position that offers both good defense and good offense, and most of the time you get one or the other.  Correa last year was the best defender and was above average on offense.  You are just looking at offense numbers, which is a poor way to evaluate SS.  That being said Correa has regressed a little on defense too.  On average in FA WAR cost about 8 to 9 mil per WAR.  Correa has been good for 3.7 right now, so he should be getting paid about 30 to 35 mil.  So per WAR he is getting paid just about right for what a FA cost.  All the other guys you list, outside of Tatis because of not playing, everyone is making about what WAR to cost in FA are on par with getting what they paid for.  You can argue they should be paid less, but when you look at what the cost in FA for WAR they are not overpaid, any of them. Are they on path for HOF, maybe not, but you need to compare to the rest of the league at the time and how they compare. 

[dex8425]

53 minutes ago, Trov said:

The thing you need to remember about SS is that it is generally not a position that offers both good defense and good offense, and most of the time you get one or the other.  Correa last year was the best defender and was above average on offense.  You are just looking at offense numbers, which is a poor way to evaluate SS.  That being said Correa has regressed a little on defense too.  On average in FA WAR cost about 8 to 9 mil per WAR.  Correa has been good for 3.7 right now, so he should be getting paid about 30 to 35 mil.  So per WAR he is getting paid just about right for what a FA cost.  All the other guys you list, outside of Tatis because of not playing, everyone is making about what WAR to cost in FA are on par with getting what they paid for.  You can argue they should be paid less, but when you look at what the cost in FA for WAR they are not overpaid, any of them. Are they on path for HOF, maybe not, but you need to compare to the rest of the league at the time and how they compare. 

Both Lindor and Correa are on great HOF trajectories, as well as Machado. Correa is only 27 and already has 38 WAR. Lindor is 28 with 36 WAR. Too early to tell on all three, but for reference, other shortstops at the end of their age 28 season:

Jeter 37 WAR

Ernie Banks 42 WAR

Luis Aparicio 22 WAR

Barry Larkin 31 WAR

Alan Trammell 37 WAR

Ripken 50 WAR (wow)

[Unwinder]

1 hour ago, dex8425 said:

Both Lindor and Correa are on great HOF trajectories

I think Correa's chances are limited by whether history views the Astros sign-stealing scandal as unforgivingly as the PED era.

[dex8425]

4 minutes ago, Unwinder said:

I think Correa's chances are limited by whether history views the Astros sign-stealing scandal as unforgivingly as the PED era.

We'll find out next year with Beltran, who was by all accounts the leader of the sign stealing scandal. My guess is that Altuve, Beltran and Correa all get in. Some PED guys got in easily, like Bud Selig, Piazza, Pudge, Biggio, and David Ortiz, I guess because they were more well-liked than Sosa and Clemens. 

[Sean.h]

3 hours ago, RJA said:

Great post.  I think there is a tendancy to overrate current players with respect to their HOF potential, especially when they are on one of the big name winning clubs and/or having good years.  And, I think the media biggies tend to push this sort of narrative during free agency.  Of the group of shortstops you mention, I think Correa is clearly the best, as even in a year like this when he is not at his best offensively, his defense and game awareness make him special.  IF he continues to perform for another 5 years plus, he could be HOF material IMHO.  I think shortstop is one of the three most important postions on the field, along with CF and catcher, but I think it is a little less important now in the era of shifts than it was in the old days, but that may change if shifts are banned or regulated going forward.  I would love to have Correa back so long as the FO doesn't think they can stand pat if he does return.  Like last year, this offseason could be interesting.  As for the salaries, it is just hard for me to even relate to those kind of numbers :).

IF Correa does return, the FO doesn't have big holes to fill this offseason. The starting rotation is set with Gray, Mahle, Maeda, Ryan, and Ober/Winder (with SWR/LV/JB at AAA providing depth). The BP will be headed by Duran, Jax, Lopez (nice!). With Kiriloff/Larnach/Jeffers hopefully returning healthy, the only real need in the lineup would be to find a catcher to pair with Jeffers. So maybe a couple bullpen pieces and a backup catcher.

[ICTwin25]

A long term extension for Correa will make things interesting for the infield prospects. Polanco is locked up through 2025 so does that mean it's Royce Lewis at 3rd? What does that mean for Brooks Lee and Austin Martin? Arraez has arbitration next year and while he struggles vs lefties, he is an absolute stud.

[FlyingFinn]

11 minutes ago, ICTwin25 said:

Polanco is locked up through 2025 so does that mean it's Royce Lewis at 3rd? What does that mean for Brooks Lee and Austin Martin?

Lewis is fast and if Correa returns (which I don't think he will) he should be with the Twins in the outfield. If we are having the slower Larnach/Wallner in the outfield post-Kepler, it would be nice to have more speed out there besides Buxton. But I think Lewis will be at SS.

Polanco - not a popular opinion here but I think the years of play are catching up with his body. I don't think we will see 2021 from him again. He may be at his peak trade value this year before he gets older. I wonder what kind of good veteran OF we could get in a Polanco/Kepler package?

[nicksaviking]

I don't know, if the shortstops haven't performed, seems like the Twins getting Correa on the short term deal seems like a fantastic move in hindsight. They had no other free agents to put that kind of money towards, but Correa/Urshela/Sanchez are looking like a heck of a lot better than Donaldson/Kiner-Falefa/Rortvedt.

Good critique about the free agent market, I'm not sure it's a valid one against the front office though.

[bean5302]

Trevor Story is at 2B because the Red Sox still have Boegarts and they promised they'd let him play SS.

Xander Boegarts
Trea Turner
Carlos Correa
Dansby Swanson

It's arguably an as good or better SS class than last year, but for every elite free agent shortstop, that means a team needs a shortstop to replace the outgoing one.

[Rosterman]

I would've been extremely happy with Kiner-Falefa at shotstop. We would've had Rortvedt and Jeffers as catchers (although what would the state be of Rortvedt). Donaldson would've been at third.

Going further back, we would've had two catchers (possibly) on the DH and no shortstop. Who would be playing shortstop if we didn't have Correa? Lewis was not considered ready.

Amazingly we could afford Correa after striking out in free agent land. We got rid of a BIG longterm contract for a couple of shorter ones, and I won't complain about the play of Urshela and the smiles he brings to my face. And I find that Sanchez had played in a gutsy fashion, no doubt hoping for a decent free agent contract.

Yes, we hope Lewis will be back, but will it be in June or July. WHo plays shortstop until then?

The Twins could afford another year of Correa (perhaps). It all depends, longterm, how much money Correa wishes to make and to get it in writing. If something happened to Correa, the Twins would be on the books for $105m.

The Twins still have to figure out a position for Martin, who is still a Top Prospect, not to mention the future Brooks Lee. And there are a couple more middle infield bodies to consider for the future. 

I enjoyed the season of Correa. He provided a bit of leadership, amongst the baggage of taunts from other teams. He plays hard. Remember that hitting, as a whole, seems down this season in both leagues.

The Twins will only stay in the free agent hunt if they overpay. And soimetimes might be best to really overpy fo a season, than 3-4 seasons on one body.

[Linus]

Don’t look now but Correa is heating up. By the end of the year he might have the best numbers of any SS. He will opt out. There would be all kinds of teams willing to give him $30 million for one year so he has nothing to lose and potentially a monster contract to gain. 

[RJA]

1 hour ago, Sean.h said:

IF Correa does return, the FO doesn't have big holes to fill this offseason. The starting rotation is set with Gray, Mahle, Maeda, Ryan, and Ober/Winder (with SWR/LV/JB at AAA providing depth). The BP will be headed by Duran, Jax, Lopez (nice!). With Kiriloff/Larnach/Jeffers hopefully returning healthy, the only real need in the lineup would be to find a catcher to pair with Jeffers. So maybe a couple bullpen pieces and a backup catcher.

Thanks for the thoughtful response. Good post.  I certainly don't think the cupboad is bare if he comes back, and Mahle, Gray and Ryan are three nice starters, BUT to be a devil's advocate,  I worry about the injury factor/history with so many of our players.  I love Buck to death, but he is fragile.  Mahle has had issues twice this year, which may mean nothing, but also could be a precursor to bigger issues.  Winder has a history of issues, Canterino has just had TJ, and Maeda is coming back for TJ and that is not a sure thing, especially in the first year back.  Paddack is questionable to be back. Plus, Balazovic has had a horrible year, so he will need to figure some things out before we can look to him.  SWR has been inconsistent.  Varland is on a good run, so he might be the best bet for next year.  On the offensive side, Kirilloff is still a question mark as to whether he will come back from the surgery ready to do damage.  Lewis is recovering from another major surgery.  Jeffers needs a partner as he has not really established himself as yet.  If we want to make noise in the postseason next year, I still think we need another 1 or 2 starter, a good catcher to pair with Jeffers, someone to replace Kepler who I think is a huge weak link offensively (maybe he would be a little better if they limit shifts), and 2-3 good bullpen arms.  IF Acala comes back strong, and Stashak returns, that will help.  Don't get me wrong, I like the core, especially if Correa is back, but these days a team needs a lot of depth in the rotation and bullpen given the frequency with which injuries are hitting pitchers.  If everyone comes back healthy, and stays healthy, it will be a good roster, but it will still have holes that need fixing IMHO.  Great to exhange thoughts with you.  BTW, I hope you are right :).

[ICTwin25]

3 hours ago, FlyingFinn said:

Lewis is fast and if Correa returns (which I don't think he will) he should be with the Twins in the outfield. If we are having the slower Larnach/Wallner in the outfield post-Kepler, it would be nice to have more speed out there besides Buxton. But I think Lewis will be at SS.

Polanco - not a popular opinion here but I think the years of play are catching up with his body. I don't think we will see 2021 from him again. He may be at his peak trade value this year before he gets older. I wonder what kind of good veteran OF we could get in a Polanco/Kepler package?

I actually agree with the trade Polanco idea. I think he and Kepler along with a prospect could get us a quality starter. This would all be if Correa elects to stay though

[bean5302]

3 hours ago, Rosterman said:

...Yes, we hope Lewis will be back, but will it be in June or July. WHo plays shortstop until then?...

Lewis is on a timeline for April/May, not June/July right now.

[rwilfong86]

I would really like to see the Twins work something with Correa to keep him long term .

[dex8425]

On 8/30/2022 at 12:19 PM, bean5302 said:

Trevor Story is at 2B because the Red Sox still have Boegarts and they promised they'd let him play SS.

Xander Boegarts
Trea Turner
Carlos Correa
Dansby Swanson

It's arguably an as good or better SS class than last year, but for every elite free agent shortstop, that means a team needs a shortstop to replace the outgoing one.

Story also doesn't have the arm he did before the arm injury. His throws from 2b are not as quick as they used to be. He could probably still play an average shortstop but not a great shortstop. Course Bogaerts isn't very good there either.

[Brock Beauchamp]

On 8/30/2022 at 9:47 AM, dex8425 said:

Ripken 50 WAR (wow)

This is due to the positional adjustment of WAR. Ripken played most of his career when shortstops were TERRIBLE hitters. Ripken only posted a 140 OPS+ four times in his career, one of them a partial season.

For a comparison point, Corey Seager has done that three times already and he's only 28 years old.

In 1991, Ripken had a .940 OPS, 162 OPS+, and was awarded 9.2 oWAR for that performance. That's an absurd number.

In 2017, Correa had a .915 OPS, 155 OPS+, and received 5.7 oWAR. That's the difference between the average shortstop in the 80s and the average shortstop in the 2010s.

I'm not diminishing what Ripken did, though, I'm merely pointing out how he accumulated such an absurd amount of WAR.

[dex8425]

53 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

This is due to the positional adjustment of WAR. Ripken played most of his career when shortstops were TERRIBLE hitters. Ripken only posted a 140 OPS+ four times in his career, one of them a partial season.

For a comparison point, Corey Seager has done that three times already and he's only 28 years old.

In 1991, Ripken had a .940 OPS, 162 OPS+, and was awarded 9.2 oWAR for that performance. That's an absurd number.

In 2017, Correa had a .915 OPS, 155 OPS+, and received 5.7 oWAR. That's the difference between the average shortstop in the 80s and the average shortstop in the 2010s.

I'm not diminishing what Ripken did, though, I'm merely pointing out how he accumulated such an absurd amount of WAR.

True. I only included him as a point of reference. He still pales in comparison to A-rod though. And people disliked A-rod because he was "overpaid" too. 

[Major League Ready]

On 8/30/2022 at 8:38 AM, Trov said:

The thing you need to remember about SS is that it is generally not a position that offers both good defense and good offense, and most of the time you get one or the other.  Correa last year was the best defender and was above average on offense.  You are just looking at offense numbers, which is a poor way to evaluate SS.  That being said Correa has regressed a little on defense too.  On average in FA WAR cost about 8 to 9 mil per WAR.  Correa has been good for 3.7 right now, so he should be getting paid about 30 to 35 mil.  So per WAR he is getting paid just about right for what a FA cost.  All the other guys you list, outside of Tatis because of not playing, everyone is making about what WAR to cost in FA are on par with getting what they paid for.  You can argue they should be paid less, but when you look at what the cost in FA for WAR they are not overpaid, any of them. Are they on path for HOF, maybe not, but you need to compare to the rest of the league at the time and how they compare. 

This valuation of WAR is constantly misinterpreted.  Free agents are not "worth" 8-9M per war.  They cost 8-9M per war because so many of them fail miserably.  Front offices don't look at 3 WAR payer and say that guy is worth $25M/year. Semien only played 53 games in 2020 but he averaged almost 8 WAR in 2019 and 2021.  His AAV is 25M.  Did they only expect to get 3 WAR from him?   

How many WAR would you expect to get if you signed 3 RPs for $10M AAV and one for $5M.  Would you get expected value if they average less than 1 WAR each?  The bottom line is that if a mid-market team produces 1 WAR per 8-9M spent in free agency, the team is likely to fail and no team is happy with 1 WAR per 8-9M.  They are all trying to beat the odds.