Week in Review: Stayin' Alive

[Nick Nelson]

The Minnesota Twins found their 2022 season on life support as they limped out of Houston on Thursday, losers of six straight, but they managed to avert disaster with a much-needed weekend sweep of the Giants back at home.

As a result, the Twins are still in the fight, albeit facing a tremendous uphill battle after spiraling into an embarrassing slump while losing their best player to the injured list. 

Weekly Snapshot: Mon, 8/22 through Sun, 8/28
***
Record Last Week: 3-4 (Overall: 65-61)
Run Differential Last Week: +8 (Overall: +32)
Standing: 2nd Place in AL Central (2.0 GB)

Last Week's Game Results:

Game 120 | TEX 2, MIN 1: Bats Disappear, Buxton Goes Down
Game 121 | HOU 4, MIN 2: Slumping Offense Hopeless Against Verlander
Game 122 | HOU 5, MIN 3: Fulmer Falters in Another Lineup No-Show
Game 123 | HOU 6, MIN 3: Twins Drop Sixth Straight in Familiar Fashion
Game 124 | MIN 9, SF 0: Offense Awakens as Losing Streak Snaps
Game 125 | MIN 3, SF 2: Bases-Loaded BB Produces True Walk-Off
Game 126 | MIN 8, SF 3: Twins Pull Away to Secure Needed Sweep

NEWS & NOTES

Byron Buxton did everything he could to avoid this point. It's not exactly a secret he's been fighting through significant physical ailments all season. That's been apparent in his expressions, his movements, his frequent unavailability, and of course his diminished – albeit still solid – performance. But he's managed to stay active through all of it.

On Monday, his body finally said 'no more.' Buxton showed clear discomfort on a big swing in the series finale against Texas, then battled through an eventful inning in the field before exiting the game. Turns out it was a lesser-discussed ongoing hip issue that finally overcame Buxton, pushing him to the injured list for the first time all year.

This pause isn't expected to clear up the hip problems, nor the center fielder's chronic knee pain, but giving Buxton a break feels like the team's best bet to have him available in any capacity for a late push. That is, if the season is still salvageable whenever he returns. 

With Tyler Mahle sidelined, Aaron Sanchez was recalled to start on Tuesday against the Astros. He held his own in the imposing matchup, allowing two runs over four innings. He also pitched on Sunday against the Giants, yielding two earned runs over 3 ⅔ while struggling to keep his pitch count in check.

Kyle Garlick was activated from the IL on Friday and wasted no time making his impact felt, batting leadoff against left-hander Alex Wood and going 3-for-4 with a walk. Unfortunately, Wood was the last lefty starter the Twins are lined up to face in quite a while, after running through a ridiculous barrage of southpaws during Garlick's absence. Par for the course this year. 

Tim Beckham was designated for assignment to make room on the roster for Garlick. Speedster Billy Hamilton, signed to a minor-league deal on Saturday, could soon take over Beckham's previous role as last man on the bench. More on that later.

HIGHLIGHTS

It's hard to say the front office's big moves at the trade deadline have paid off much to this point – Mahle is on the IL, Michael Fulmer coughed up three runs in Houston on Wednesday, and Jorge López has blown two of five save attempts. All the same, Minnesota's once-wobbly staff has been significantly stabilized since then. 

In the month of August, Twins pitchers have collectively posted a 3.24 ERA. They've surrendered only 20 home runs in 25 games after coughing up 38 in 22 July contests, leading to a 5.30 ERA that month and a state of deadline desperation. 

The arms have been asked to pick up a lot of slack lately, thanks to the sluggishness of the offense, and for the most part, they've been answering the call. The Twins completely shut down Texas and San Francisco this past week, allowing only six total runs in four games against them, keyed by a pair of strong starts from Sonny Gray and a shutdown performance from Joe Ryan on Friday.

Even the Houston series was relatively impressive from a pitching standpoint. Throwing their bottom three starters at one of the league's best lineups in a very hitter-friendly park, the Twins allowed 15 runs, holding Houston to four, five, and six on successive nights. 

This couldn't be considered GOOD pitching per se – we're still talking about a 5.63 ERA in the series – but it's the best one could realistically expect given the circumstances. Any kind of life from the Twins offense would've made these competitive and winnable games. Alas, that wasn't in the cards.

LOWLIGHTS

The depths of this offense's despair, as the team's once-bright hopes in the Central faded fast amidst a crushing six-game losing streak, were truly hard to comprehend. Even with so many key hitters on IL – a list Buxton joined early in the week – it was just stunning to see a collection of professional hitters look this flat and fruitless, night in and night out.

On both August 16th against Kansas City and August 26th against San Francisco, the Twins won 9-0 in games that featured run-scoring explosions rendered unnecessary by the pitching staff's excellence. In eight games between those blowouts, when the team really could've used some of that excess scoring, the offense slashed .182/.246/.289 and averaged just 2.25 runs per game. 

Clearly the brief awakening against the Royals generated no momentum. The same felt true this time around, as the Twins followed Friday's nine-run outburst by getting shut out through eight innings on Saturday. They managed to turn that around, thankfully, but it's still tough to feel confidence in this lineup.

Max Kepler has been anchoring the team's downward plunge. He went 4-for-22 with one double and one RBI during the six-game losing streak. His last home run came on July 5th and since then he's slugging .279 in 31 games, as an everyday right fielder. Kepler's inability to pose any real threat at the plate made it all the more puzzling that San Francisco chose to intentionally walk him as part of Saturday's game-winning rally, but, I guess that's why the Giants are where they are.

Carlos Correa's stat line during the six-game swoon was nearly identical to Kepler's – 4-for-22, one double, one RBI – and it continued a lengthy stretch of underwhelming performance from the shortstop, who by then was slashing .212/.315/.340 with a negative WPA since the end of June. 

Correa broke out of his slump during the weekend, producing six hits and three RBIs against the Giants. Kepler did too, reaching base five times and scoring the winning run on Saturday night before chipping in a couple of hits on Sunday. It goes to show how much of a difference these guys can make when they're contributing, not to mention some of the role players who've been elevated into bigger roles like Jake Cave and Gilberto Celestino. 

The Twins badly need all of these guys to keep it up, especially with a couple other reliable offensive fixtures beginning to fade. 

After managing to hang in the .330-.340 range for much of the season, Luis Arraez has seen his batting average drop precipitously of late as the hits have dried up. He went just 2-for-22 over the past week and is hitting .261 in August. 

I recently opined that Arraez is the single most important factor in the lineup's – and thus the team's – success down the stretch. The numbers corroborate this belief, as Arraez's drop-off has closely coincided with the team's slide. 

This split is always pretty stark, but in his case it really jumps out: in Twins victories, Arraez is slashing .387/.456/.495; in losses, .251/.313/.360. He's the straw that stirs the drink.

Another crucial offensive contributor gone missing is José Miranda, who produced just four singles in 28 at-bats over the past week. He's seen his OPS drop by about 50 points since the start of the Texas series. Part of this is just natural regression, because luck was eventually going to stop favoring the rookie so generously (he had a .436 BABIP in the first month following the All-Star break) but there do appear to be some league adjustments in play. 

Specifically, pitchers are capitalizing on Miranda's ultra-aggressive approach, with the whiffs beginning to mount. Last week he struck out 12 times with zero walks in 29 plate appearances. His out-of-zone swing rate has been way up lately.

Miranda has shown a knack for hitting the ball where it's pitched and making quality contact in a variety of different zone locations, but some pitches simply should not be swung at, and he needs to start showing better judgment to get back on track. 

Perhaps this undisciplined slump stems from the desire of a talented young player to try and do too much while the team languishes and fizzles around him. Or maybe it's just a standard example of major-league scouting reports catching up to a rookie hitter.

Either way, it underscores the vital need for veteran cornerstones like Kepler, Correa, and Jorge Polanco – 3-for-16 with one RBI last week, and battling a knee issue – to take the lead and relieve some pressure in the final month-plus. 

TRENDING STORYLINE

When the calendar flips to September this coming Thursday, MLB rosters will expand by two, to 28 players. This gives the Twins an opportunity to add two more players to their existing mix. It'll be interesting to see how those spots are used initially, because the club isn't exactly hard-pressed for roster room right now. In fact they're already rostering at least one bench player (Caleb Hamilton) who they have no real use for. 

There are a number of players on the comeback trail from injury, hoping to return in the final month – Kenta Maeda, Trevor Larnach, Josh Winder, Randy Dobnak, and Ryan Jeffers among them – but it seems unlikely any will be ready for a call-up quite that soon. This leaves relievers like Jovani Moran and Jake Jewell as candidates to join the bullpen. 

On the position player side? Assuming he checks out in his workouts at the Twins' Ft. Myers complex, Hamilton (Billy, not Caleb) seems like a good bet to come aboard as a pinch-runner and defensive replacement.

LOOKING AHEAD

It's "take care of business" time for the Twins. They need to handle a pretty decent Red Sox team at home – no small order – and then try to create some distance from the White Sox in Chicago. 

Of note: Mahle will be eligible to return from the injured list for Saturday night's 'TBD' slot. That appears to be the tentative plan, so long as things keep trending right for the right-hander physically. Given the magnitude of that series, the Cy Young-caliber quality of the opposing starter, and the immense drop-off from Mahle to Sanchez ... we'll need to strongly hope that proves to be the case. 

MONDAY, 8/29: RED SOX @ TWINS – RHP Brayan Bello v. RHP Dylan Bundy
TUESDAY, 8/30: RED SOX @ TWINS – RHP Kutter Crawford v. RHP Chris Archer
WEDNESDAY, 8/31: RED SOX @ TWINS – RHP Michael Wacha v. RHP Joe Ryan
FRIDAY, 9/2: TWINS @ WHITE SOX – RHP Sonny Gray v. RHP Davis Martin
SATURDAY, 9/3: TWINS @ WHITE SOX – TBD v. RHP Dylan Cease
SUNDAY, 9/4: TWINS @ WHITE SOX – RHP Dylan Bundy v. RHP Lucas Giolito

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[tarheeltwinsfan]

Good report. Depressing but accurate.  However it is much better than 2021 in so many ways. September is still available for the Twins to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat. Thanks Nick. 

[mikelink45]

Fascinating.  This division is amazing, where else could we play so bad and gain ground?  Sanchez has not done well by any measurement that I know of.  He just fills a spot for 2 - 3 innings.  I would rather see Smeltzer start with a chance that he might actually give us some positive innings.  

Pagan continues to underwhelm.  Cabeb Hamilton is at least gaining some time for his retirement package.  Arraez and Miranda need to come back, Kepler needs to be replaced - but who will do it? 

Here are your summaries since the All Star week and still we are fighting for first place. 

Record Last Week: 3-4 (Overall: 65-61)
Run Differential Last Week: +8 (Overall: +32)

Record Last Week: 4-2 (Overall: 62-57)
Run Differential Last Week: +8 (Overall: +25)

Record Last Week: 1-4 (Overall: 58-55)
Run Differential Last Week: -10 (Overall: +17)

Record Last Week: 4-3 (Overall: 57-51)
Run Differential Last Week: +1 (Overall: +27)

Record Last Week: 1-4 (Overall: 53-48)
Run Differential Last Week: -14 (Overall: +26)

Record Last Week: 2-0 (Overall: 52-44)
Run Differential Last Week: +12 (Overall: +40)

[jimbo92107]

Actually Aaron Sanchez has been pitching about as well as Bundy or Archer, maybe better than the latter. He has a live heater, and tight spin on his off-speed stuff. Seems to have good command of the zone down low. Not an ace, but he looks like a mid-ro starter. 

Pop Quiz: How many Twins pitchers have thrown a no-hitter?

A: Aaron Sanchez. 

[Otwins]

Can they piggyback Archer and Sanchez when Mahle comes back? Try and save the bullpen a few innings

 

[Doctor Gast]

I was expecting you to post a Bee Gee's "Staying Alive" song

[stringer bell]

As of today the Twins are two games behind Cleveland and three ahead of Chicago. Their prospects for making the playoffs as a Wild Card are pretty small. They trail the three teams in line for Wild Card slots by more than they trail the Guardians. The Twins play Chicago nine times and Cleveland eight times in the balance of the schedule. They would appear to control their own destiny. 

I believe the Twins will need to win 22 to 24 games of their remaining 36 and they need to win a majority against both the White Sox and the Guardians. I think it is a tall order, but it is doable. 

Here's my take on the roster--additions on September 1. Mahle (technically 9/2 or 9/3) and probably Billy Hamilton. 40-man space could be created by DFAs to Caleb Hamilton and/or Mark Contreras. I'm hoping the Twins can add back some of Buxton, Jeffers, Larnach, Ober, Maeda and Dobnak. 

[Jeff D.]

A very needed sweep. Now can the Twins win two of three going the last 36? If so, they have a shot. 

However, to call Byron Buxton our best player is a stretch for me. I would say our most consistent player of the entire year has been Gio Urshella. His hitting has been the most consistent, his durability has been superb for the team and then there is his glove and consistent throws.....this guy is unsung and our most consistent player, hands down.

Twins Geezer..... out!

 

[wsnydes]

A sweep is always a good way to get "healthy", especially at this point in the season.  Now they need to continue that though.  They need a good series against Boston so they don't waste what they just accomplished.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

I see some red sox's dust in the visitors' dugout at Target Field. Will someone please bring me a broom. 

[twinfan]

Why the Twins keep running Archer out there is a mystery to me. He's best as a middle reliever- if even that. The inability to beat the weaker teams like Texas has sunk the Twins. And let's face it- they aren't in the class of Houston or the Yankees. But they can still win the division or slip into a wild card. The slump seems over but we now have old hands like Cave playing full time and that doesn't bode well. So let's pray. At least they have the future in their own hands.

[Game7-91]

"... in Twins victories, Arraez is slashing .387/.456/.495; in losses, .251/.313/.360. He's the straw that stirs the drink."
 

Amazing stat. Who would've predicted that back in March? The offense was going to run through Buck.

Not only in the stretch run now, but for 23, what is the identity of this offense? 

 

 

 

[Minderbinder]

You can only hang so many breaking balls to Jake Cave before he makes you think he's a star in the making....

[RpR]

42 minutes ago, Minderbinder said:

You can only hang so many breaking balls to Jake Cave before he makes you think he's a star in the making....

If he returns to his 2018 level, he is.

[jkcarew]

19 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

I was expecting you to post a Bee Gee's "Staying Alive" song

No tune, but against the Giants…

 

You could tell by the way we used the walk

We’re a contending team, no time to talk

[Vanimal46]

Statement week. Need to see 5 wins at a bare minimum. The Yankees are right around the corner, and we are all very aware how the Twins perform against division leaders this year. 

[IndianaTwin]

I'll post this elsewhere as well, but here's a snapshot of the remaining schedule: