Louie Varland Might Help the Twins Down the Stretch

[Cody Christie]

Louie Varland has been impressive in his first taste of the Triple-A level. With the Twins struggling, will they consider calling up one of the organization’s top pitching prospects?

The Twins drafted Louie Varland in the 15th round of the 2019 MLB Draft out of Concordia University in St. Paul, MN. After signing, he made his professional debut with the Elizabethton Twins. He allowed two earned runs on nine hits over 8 2/3 innings in three appearances. His 10-to-4 strikeout to walk ratio pointed to him making some improvements as a professional, and he improved even more during the 2020 shutdown. 

The Twins and Varland were concerned with some of the stress on his joints, so they focused on changing his arm action. This change had multiple benefits. He saw increased velocity and movement on his fastball along with improvements to his secondary pitches. In college, his fastball topped out in the low 90s, but now he can regularly hit in the upper 90s. His best secondary pitches are his changeup and slider that play well off his improved fastball. 

Varland used his improved stuff to surprise many during the 2021 campaign. He dominated at Low- and High-A on his way to winning the Twins Daily Minor League Pitcher of the Year. In 103 innings, he posted a 2.10 ERA with a 1.09 WHIP and a 142-to-30 strikeout to walk ratio. Half of his appearances came at Low-A, where he was over a year older than the average age of the competition. Still, he continued to perform well after his promotion. Varland had put himself on the prospect map but needed to prove it wasn’t a fluke in 2022. 

For the first time in his professional career, Varland has spent the entire season pitching at levels where he is younger than the average age of the competition. Nearly 56% of his at-bats have come against older batters who he has held to a .234 batting average. In 122 innings, he has posted a 3.02 ERA with a 1.27 WHIP and a 143-to-42 strikeout to walk ratio. He’s pitched a career-high in innings, and his three Triple-A starts have been nearly flawless. 

Varland would have been an excellent candidate for a September call-up in previous seasons, but MLB changed the roster rules. September rosters are now limited to 28 players, and this will be the first 162-game season where that rule will be in effect. Minnesota has to add Varland to the 40-man roster this winter, so it might not be too challenging to add him earlier. Multiple pitchers returning from injury would be ahead of Varland on the team’s depth chart. 

Up-and-coming prospects can be exciting when making their debuts, and the team can play well behind the pitcher. It would be great to see Varland have some September success like Joe Ryan did in 2022. However, Minnesota might also want Varland to end the season on a high note. He’s pitching very well at Triple-A in his hometown, which might be enough to carry him through to the start of next season. He will be added to the 40-man roster this winter and enter spring training with eyes focused on him being a big-league contributor in 2023. 

Do you think Varland will get a September call-up? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. 

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[mikelink45]

Why Not?  It is a reward to him with possible great things for the major league club. Let him take Archer's place.  Give us someone new to root for and someone who gives us hope for the future.

[roger]

I really don’t care if he is called up next month, next spring or early summer.  I do hope like heck that he is good, real good when he gets here and stays HEALTHY.

[1Hit the ball]

Can he hit? 

[terrydactyls]

Based on the past few years, I would think the expansion slots will be filled by activating IL players and keeping aging veterans who will not be back in 2023.  No young talent will be given a taste of the major leagues.

[saviking]

My concern is he's not used to a long season and his arm might not have enough life left in it as a starter down the stretch. But I'd let him take Pagan's place as a reliever for sure. 

[jimbo92107]

Sounds like he merits an early callup. Give the kid a cuppa. It'll whet his taste for the Show next season. 

[SwainZag]

2 hours ago, terrydactyls said:

Based on the past few years, I would think the expansion slots will be filled by activating IL players and keeping aging veterans who will not be back in 2023.  No young talent will be given a taste of the major leagues.

The Twins have used 12 players 25 years or younger this season already including at least 10 players considered rookies.  The only "aging" veterans who probably will not be on the roster is Archer, Leon and possibly Thielbar, otherwise everyone is under the age of 31.

[LA VIkes Fan]

I think the perfect spot to give him a try frankly is Tuesday against Boston. He last pitched Thursday the 26th and went 6 innings, 91 pitches. Archer is gassed and that's his day. Put Archer on the IL for 15 days and give this start to Varland. He is then on the 26 man on 9/1, and is replaced when Mahle comes back on 9/2 or 9/3. If Varland is somehow lights out Tuesday then they can send down Megill or Smeltzer for Mahle, both of whom will have been on the roster on 9/1.  If I understand how this works that means all of them are playoff eligible in case of injury, need, etc.  

There's very little downside and some real possible upside in giving Varland a chance. Best case we catch lightning in a bottle for September in Varland and Archer comes back stronger after 15 days off. Worst case Varland gets torched but how much worse is that than another Archer start in his current condition? We have an off day Thursday so the #5 spot only has to come up twice in the 15 day Archer IL stint and we have Smeltzer if we need another spot start. I say let's do this!  

[ChristophersClutchHitter]

I have watched Louie Varland pitch this season for the Wind Surge and have been very impressed  I hope he makes the 40 man roster next season and hope to see him in the Majors 

[bean5302]

It's possible, but the Twins would have to call him up in the next 2 days if he's going to be eligible for the playoffs. How crazy would it be to call him up later, have him perform well, then have to cut him before the playoffs?

[LA VIkes Fan]

That's why now is the time if you're going to do this . . . 

[jorgenswest]

In order to be eligible for the playoffs he needs to be on the 40 prior to September 1. It is possible in the case of injury to petition but if they know they will bring him up it should be before September 1.

Why bring him up? He may be ready enough to be a better option than the current staff and question marks on the IL.

Why wait until the winter to add him? If he is not ready they may have to burn an option to return him.

I would add him and start him Tuesday or have him ready to follow Archer’s 3-4 innings. The risk of using and needing that option down the road is outweighed by the need of some upside in the pitching staff.

[ashbury]

Someone forgot to phrase the headline in the form of a question.

I'm still going to stick my neck out and answer, 'no.'

[Linus]

Would he one of the 13 best pitchers available to the Twins?  If yes get him up here. Hint: if he isn’t better than Archer Megill or Pagan then I’m disappointed. 

[DJL44]

18 hours ago, bean5302 said:

It's possible, but the Twins would have to call him up in the next 2 days if he's going to be eligible for the playoffs. How crazy would it be to call him up later, have him perform well, then have to cut him before the playoffs?

Quote

if the player was in the organization on Aug. 31 and is replacing someone who is on the injured list

They don't need any roster gymnastics to put Varland on a playoff roster. He's in the organization.

He's not getting added any time soon because this organization is not going to risk burning one of his options in 2022.

[Rosterman]

So, going into September the Twins may see the return of Dobnak, Winder, Ober and Maeda. That would mean four players have to be jettisoned, alone, from the 40-man roster spot.

If Hamilton is added, someone has to go off the 40-man for him. 

Right away, Mahle will be coming back this week. SO he will probably be the pitcher add to the current roster. In limbo, you could write such names as Sanchez, Smeltzer, Megill, Pagan, and possibly Archer or Bundy if any of the returning in jurd guys would be capable of starting and pitching at least five innings.

Unless if he rally shines, I don't see Dobnak coming back, and he could easily (I feel) be moved off the 40-man but still kept in the organization. Both Ober and Winder could pitch relief (which means they replace Smeltzer and Sanchez). I still want to see Moran added. Is Mahle replacing Sanchex or Smeltzer?

So I doubt that Varland will land a 40-man spot this season. He will be added in the offseason.

[Mike Sixel]

2 minutes ago, Rosterman said:

So, going into September the Twins may see the return of Dobnak, Winder, Ober and Maeda. That would mean four players have to be jettisoned, alone, from the 40-man roster spot.

If Hamilton is added, someone has to go off the 40-man for him. 

Right away, Mahle will be coming back this week. SO he will probably be the pitcher add to the current roster. In limbo, you could write such names as Sanchez, Smeltzer, Megill, Pagan, and possibly Archer or Bundy if any of the returning in jurd guys would be capable of starting and pitching at least five innings.

Unless if he rally shines, I don't see Dobnak coming back, and he could easily (I feel) be moved off the 40-man but still kept in the organization. Both Ober and Winder could pitch relief (which means they replace Smeltzer and Sanchez). I still want to see Moran added. Is Mahle replacing Sanchex or Smeltzer?

So I doubt that Varland will land a 40-man spot this season. He will be added in the offseason.

Agreed. Well thought out.