Contemplating Gio Urshela’s Final Arbitration Year

[Cody Christie]

Gio Urshela is wrapping up his first season in a Minnesota Twins uniform. Has he done enough for the Twins to offer him arbitration this winter?

Nearing the end of his seventh big-league season, Gio Urshela’s offensive profile has been interesting to follow throughout his career. It took until his age-27 season for a team to give him a chance to play over 100 games, and he made the most of the opportunity. In 175 games between 2019-20, he hit .310/.359/.523 (.881) with a 134 OPS+ and 72 extra-base hits. He was a well above-average hitter that offered some defensive flexibility. It looked like the Yankees had found another strong player off the scrap heap. 

During the 2021 season, his offensive numbers struggled as he posted a 97 OPS+ while striking out 109 times in 116 games. He ended the season with a .720 OPS and questions about his long-term role with the Yankees. His defense at third base also struggled as he posted a -1.2 SDI, which is one of the metrics used to award Gold Gloves. Only four American League third basemen had a lower total during the 2021 season. 

Coming off his down season, Minnesota acquired Urshela along with Gary Sanchez as part of the Josh Donaldson trade. Urshela seemed like he had the potential to be a bounce-back candidate, and the Twins acquired him with multiple years of team control. For the 2022 season, Urshela made $6.55 million through the arbitration process, and he will be scheduled to make more in 2023. So, should the Twins offer him arbitration or let him test the free agent waters?

Entering play this weekend, Urshela has very similar offensive numbers to 2021. His .741 OPS is just over 20 points higher than last season, and he has almost an identical amount of extra-base hits. However, giving context to those numbers is crucial because offense is down across baseball this season. His 114 OPS+ ranks above league average and in the 67th percentile or higher in Max Exit Velocity, xSLG, and K%.  

Not everything has been perfect for Urshela this season. Among Twins hitters, he has the seventh highest Win Probability Added, which places him between Kyle Garlick and Royce Lewis. His defense has also been below replacement level, as only one AL third baseman has a lower SDI ranking. There have been good and bad moments for him throughout the season, but the team will have to consider what value he can provide the team for 2023. 

FanGraphs pegs Urshela as providing the Twins with $8.4 million worth of value so far in 2022. That is significantly more than the $6.55 million Minnesota is paying him this season, but it might be similar to where his arbitration figure ends up for 2023. Entering the 2021 season, the Twins had to decide whether or not to offer arbitration to Eddie Rosario. He was scheduled to make around $12 million in arbitration, and the front office decided to go in a different direction. It was the right decision, even if he had some big playoff moments for the Braves. The Rosario decision was likely more straightforward than what the team will do with Urshela.

Looking ahead to next season, the Twins will have multiple options to play third base. Luis Arraez, Jose Miranda, and Royce Lewis are all options to fill the role at the hot corner. All three players are part of the team’s long-term plan, and Urshela’s arbitration money might be more wisely spent on other roster pieces. 

Do you think the Twins will offer Urshela arbitration? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. 

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[dxpavelka]

The Rosario decision was the "right" decision and yet we've spent two years wandering the desert searching for a LF while Eddie's wearing a ring.  Got it.

[RpR]

Arraez should never be at Third Base and Miranda , if not be DH should stay at First only.

[bean5302]

I would non-tender Urshela and allow him to enter free agency.

[mikelink45]

This is a good puzzle.  I had to go to his B-R page and see that he hit 267 last year and 266 so far this year.  His 301 and 307 OBP are nothing to brag about and his power is low for 3B.  He has been a good average player - much better than Sanchez, but with the young players coming up he is expendable if they are trying to save dollars.  If they had not traded Steer and Encarnacion-Strand I was sure he was gone, now I am not sure. 

I would think that Sanchez would be going, but with the catcher situation in flux he too is a question mark.  In many ways both are dependent on how the FO sees the injured players and their tracks to get back to Minneapolis. 

[LA VIkes Fan]

Urshela and Sanchez are both tough decisions. I see Urshela as the classic starter on a second division team, utility guy on a contender. Sanchez is a 2nd catcher/position share guy with a strong defensive LH hitting catcher on a contender. All good in theory but the decision boils down to options.  

I come out differently on the two of them primarily because of what else we have. With Urshela, a lot depends on what happens with Correa. If he's back, Urshela should go and we should use his roster spot for a bat first RH DH type with Miranda and Arraez playing 3b and 1B until Lewis gets back, then Lewis plays 3B and one of those two is the DH.  If Correa goes, I'm torn but then we should probably keep Urshela to have infield depth. I would want him in a utility/DH role with Miranda getting the everyday 3B reps. The only way we can find out if Miranda can play 3B on an everyday basis is to play him there on an everyday basis, Sanchez is easier. We don't have another MLB quality catcher other than Jeffers, catchers are very hard to find, and they are impossible to trade for without overpaying. Sanchez stays if we can re-sign him and he and Jeffers are the catchers next year.  

[Alex Wilde]

1 hour ago, dxpavelka said:

The Rosario decision was the "right" decision and yet we've spent two years wandering the desert searching for a LF while Eddie's wearing a ring.  Got it.

Eddie sucked for the Indians and was traded away for literally nothing. We know who he is and he gets hot for a bit and it happened to be in the playoffs for the Braves. So what? If it wasn’t for injuries, Royce and Larnach would be playing in the outfield right now. Kepler would have been traded at the deadline for a AA pitcher and life would move on.

[Whitey333]

If, in part, you are talking about using his salary sump to spend elsewhere u kind of understand.  But we have a $35 million shortstop that is way underperforming.  I say let's hope he leaves and use his money to keep Utshela and also find more pitching 

[tony&rodney]

All about the money. Sanchez and Urshela are in similar situations with current salaries higher than they will get next year. The return of each would be a good idea if they can sign both for around 9-12 million dollars combined. That would necessitate a cut for each as they are at about 15-16 combined now. The players would need to evaluate their next options and make their priorities known though because I do not see the Twins going to arbitration with either player.

[jorgenswest]

Miranda is the better option at 3B. Arraez is the better option at 1B. I don’t think Urshela is a good utility option though he did play some SS for the Yankees. I think they have enough infield depth with Lewis, Gorden, Palacios and soon Julien. They probably should spend the dollars elsewhere. This is not a knock on Urshela who would earn his salary. They simply have better cost controlled options.

[Doctor Gast]

1 hour ago, mikelink45 said:

This is a good puzzle.  I had to go to his B-R page and see that he hit 267 last year and 266 so far this year.  His 301 and 307 OBP are nothing to brag about and his power is low for 3B.  He has been a good average player - much better than Sanchez, but with the young players coming up he is expendable if they are trying to save dollars.  If they had not traded Steer and Encarnacion-Strand I was sure he was gone, now I am not sure. 

I would think that Sanchez would be going, but with the catcher situation in flux he too is a question mark.  In many ways both are dependent on how the FO sees the injured players and their tracks to get back to Minneapolis. 

I agree w/ Mike. I like Urshella and has served a purpose this year. But we have a lot of 3B possibilities let a lone SSs available depending on what happens at SS next year. I see both Urshella & Sanchez gone next season. We really need a catcher & Sanchez isn't it.

[Brandon]

Even before I got to the part of the article stating Urshala’s value is 8.55 million, I was thinking I probably wouldn’t go over 8 million in a contract for him.  What are our 3B options for next year?  There isn’t much written about that which is important to the authors points.  I am fine with either a 1 year 8 million or 2 year 16 million deal for Urshala depending on our other alternatives.  I doubt Urshala can do much better on the market and I am sure he likes it enough here to stay.  Can Miranda field well enough there to take over third?  He can definitely hit well enough there! 

[LA VIkes Fan]

Just went to Urshela's Baseball Reference page and realized he's already 30 and will be 31 in October. I don't know why I thought he was younger than that, but I did. I also saw that his slash line this year of .266/.307/.426 (.733) is right in line with his career average of .270/.314/.428 (.742).  His career average is a little inflated by 2019 and 2020, years we aren't going back to with the change in the baseball.  Add in his poor defensive ratings and the presence of both Miranda and Gordon to play 3B next year, it's hard to see a good case for keeping Urshela at $8m plus a year next year. IF, and it is a big IF, Larnach is around out play LF next year AND Kirilloff is available to play 1B or the OF it's hard to see a place for Urshela other than as a UTL/DH fighting for playing time with Arraez. It's hard to see a 31 year old, average hitting, poor fielding (at least by the stats) corner INF at $8m plus fitting on the roster. Maybe he would sign for a lesser amount or we can trade him for prospects but committing to him through arbitration is a tough sell. 

[Fritzderkat]

On the whole of it, I wouldn't mind having Urshela on my ball club.

 

[RpR]

44 minutes ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

Add in his poor defensive ratings and the presence of both Miranda and Gordon to play 3B next year,

Urshela's defense numbers at Third are better than Miranda's, while Gordon's numbers there show he should NEVER be allowed to play third.

[Major League Ready]

1 hour ago, Alex Wilde said:

Eddie sucked for the Indians and was traded away for literally nothing. We know who he is and he gets hot for a bit and it happened to be in the playoffs for the Braves. So what? If it wasn’t for injuries, Royce and Larnach would be playing in the outfield right now. Kepler would have been traded at the deadline for a AA pitcher and life would move on.

Not to mention that he is literally one of the worst offensive players in baseball this season.  He has been horrible since he left and not great the last couple years he was here so the logic that he has a ring, therefore he would add something to this team is for those who insist on maintaining a position regardless of the facts.  The Twins are having a hard time scoring and the answer is a guy with a wRC+ of 50!!!  Really?  Our back-ups to the injured guys (Celestino & Garlick) have a wRC+ of 91 and 154.  Larnach while learning his way at the ML level was 103 and he played fundamentally better defense as well.

[Major League Ready]

I would think a big part of the decision will be if they believe Kirilloff will be healthy.  If so, he is going to get that shot.  Miranda has only made 1 error and looked decent not great at 3B but he is going to be very valuable if he can play an average 3B.  Arraez is back-up 1B and emergency 3B.  Gordon is super utility and has also been one of our best offensive players the last couple months.  I just don't see room or enough value in keeping Urshela.  Spend the $8.5M on a RP or use it toward a top of the rotation SP.  It would even make more sense to try to sign Josh Bell and Kirilloff can play OF / 1B / DH.  

[stringer bell]

Urshela has performed as expected and avoided the IL. I know the Twins' TV crew has pumped his defense while metrics aren't so kind. I think he's been fine at third, but he's not irreplaceable there. Miranda and Arraez need places to play but what we can predict is that there will be injuries. 

I suppose that Gio will make good money in arbitration, probably too much for a part-time player. I wonder if there is a trade market for him. 

 

[strumdatjag]

Everyone is leaving out someone - Alex Kirilloff.   He will be back with what we hope is a successfully repaired wrist.  AK is the likely First Baseman.  That puts Arraez as a Super Utility guy,   Miranda will be at 3B and a likely spending much of the second half at  DH when Royce Lewis returns (and plays 3B).   Polanco is at 2B (backing up SS with Gordon and Lewis).  Correa will not opt out and will be the almost everyday SS.  

I don’t see a place for Urshela.  He has had some nice moments, but there is no urgency to cram him into that mix. 

[strumdatjag]

2 minutes ago, strumdatjag said:

Everyone is leaving out someone - Alex Kirilloff.   He will be back with what we hope is a successfully repaired wrist.  AK is the likely First Baseman.  That puts Arraez as a Super Utility guy,   Miranda will be at 3B and a likely spending much of the second half at  DH when Royce Lewis returns (and plays 3B).   Polanco is at 2B (backing up SS with Gordon and Lewis).  Correa will not opt out and will be the almost everyday SS.  

I don’t see a place for Urshela.  He has had some nice moments, but there is no urgency to cram him into that mix. 

So - as I wrote that,  Kirilloff gets some additional love here. 

[dxpavelka]

2 hours ago, Alex Wilde said:

Eddie sucked for the Indians and was traded away for literally nothing. We know who he is and he gets hot for a bit and it happened to be in the playoffs for the Braves. So what? If it wasn’t for injuries, Royce and Larnach would be playing in the outfield right now. Kepler would have been traded at the deadline for a AA pitcher and life would move on.

Eddie brought heart, something that can't be measured and is sorely lacking in this team.  Can't see it but we can sure see that it's not there. 

[baul0010]

3 hours ago, Alex Wilde said:

Eddie sucked for the Indians and was traded away for literally nothing. We know who he is and he gets hot for a bit and it happened to be in the playoffs for the Braves. So what? If it wasn’t for injuries, Royce and Larnach would be playing in the outfield right now. Kepler would have been traded at the deadline for a AA pitcher and life would move on.

That is correct.  Rosario did nothing with Cleveland...The braves were dealing with injuries and were taking on any and all warm bodies that knew which hand their glove went on.  

[USAFChief]

Miranda should be the starting 3rd baseman next year. 

No on Urshela. 

[mnfireman]

I think that Correa's decision will influence the teams decision towards Miranda. If he stays Urshela becomes expendable, but there are still question marks - Lewis, Kirilloff, Larnach and even Polanco, not to mention Buxton and Kepler. 

The next question then becomes who to trade - Urshela or Arraez?? Urshela frees up $$, but Arraez brings back talent. Good be a tough call whichever way the team decides to go.

[RpR]

56 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

Miranda should be the starting 3rd baseman next year. 

No on Urshela. 

LOL yeah and put Polanco back at Short Stop LOL.

[Mike Sixel]

57 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

Miranda should be the starting 3rd baseman next year. 

No on Urshela. 

That's where I am right now. Not 100% sure I'm confident, but that's what I'd do. 

[USAFChief]

1 hour ago, Mike Sixel said:

 Not 100% sure I'm confident, 

Concur.

But Urshela just doesn't move the needle. Like someone said above, he's a 3rd Baseman on a 2nd division team. Somebody has to play there.

Miranda might not be the answer, but it's worth a shot. He's got upside.

[puckstopper1]

1 hour ago, mnfireman said:

I think that Correa's decision will influence the teams decision towards Miranda. If he stays Urshela becomes expendable, but there are still question marks - Lewis, Kirilloff, Larnach and even Polanco, not to mention Buxton and Kepler. 

The next question then becomes who to trade - Urshela or Arraez?? Urshela frees up $$, but Arraez brings back talent. Good be a tough call whichever way the team decides to go.

This.  Correa stays, Urshela goes.  Correa goes, Urshela stays.

[RpR]

Running players like a game of musical chairs has been one of the Twins greatest failings.

They know what Urshela can do at third, another crap-shoot would not  be wise; if Miranda does not go pfft when other teams figure him out, as they did Cave, then maybe in 2024.

[bean5302]

Twins fans just seem to get so attached to players who don't "suck." When it comes to Gio Urshela, his current salary is $6.5MM and his raise will probably be to something along the lines of $10MM.

He's not a better option at 3B, 1B or DH than what the Twins have right now, even with all their current injuries, and I wouldn't want him playing away from those positions due to defensive value.

He's honestly not a better option than what we already have today, right now, and $10MM could be much better spent someplace other than corner infield depth.