Contemplating Gio Urshela’s Final Arbitration Year

[MGM4706]

Miranda cannot handle 3rd base and now league may have caught up to him with sliders.  Range is 2 feet either way. Rosario was inconsistent but at least he would show some fire. Twins don't have that now. But until Twins decide pitching is important and get an Ace and more than AAA middle relief they will be stuck at .500+!!

[Mike Sixel]

3 hours ago, USAFChief said:

Concur.

But Urshela just doesn't move the needle. Like someone said above, he's a 3rd Baseman on a 2nd division team. Somebody has to play there.

Miranda might not be the answer, but it's worth a shot. He's got upside.

That's my thought, but then I'd have had guys to from the minors replacing Cave and Beckham awhile ago.... We know they're bad, take a shot. 

[SGL]

Miranda will be playing third base not Urshela

[Twins_Fan_For_Life]

I don't understand why Urshella rates so poorly defensively.   Is it his range?  Someone help me out here.

[MTV]

The Twins should pick up Urshela’s 2023 option. Miranda and Arraez aren’t good enough defenders at the hot corner and belong more at first or second, and Lewis isn’t supposed to be back until at least a month or two into the season.

As for the open market, Brandon Drury, Joey Wendle, and Justin Turner seem to be the only valuable options; Drury is just a copy-paste 1B/2B/3B of Arraez and Miranda and the other two are both on club options. Turner’s too old to invest in and while I like Joey Wendle he doesn’t seem to bring enough to the table to want him over Urshela.

As for trades, nothing jaw-dropping looks available and you should probably hold on to your top prospects for now.

[h2oface]

Miranda shoud be the 3rd baseman. He is really improving there. He looks bad at first, and so does Arraez. 

Urshela is a replacement player, but sure has come up bigger than that several times this year. 

I sure wish we had a catcher that made us proud. Neither Jeffers or Sanchez do it for me.

Lots of holes and lots of possibilities. Hard to know what you really have when they can't stay on the field in a non contact sport.

[MABB1959]

14 hours ago, baul0010 said:

That is correct.  Rosario did nothing with Cleveland...The braves were dealing with injuries and were taking on any and all warm bodies that knew which hand their glove went on.  

Sounds a awful lot like the Twins.  

[beterday]

12 hours ago, RpR said:

Running players like a game of musical chairs has been one of the Twins greatest failings.

They know what Urshela can do at third, another crap-shoot would not  be wise; if Miranda does not go pfft when other teams figure him out, as they did Cave, then maybe in 2024.

Please don't compare Miranda to Cave; that is a curse worse than anything.  I like how Jake plays the game, but him being on the major league club is the story of the 2022 team, injuries, injuries, injuries.

[baul0010]

18 minutes ago, MABB1959 said:

Sounds a awful lot like the Twins.  

The Braves had some pitching and were damn lucky that all deadline outfield additions stepped up in the postseason.  They acquired Rosario, Joc Pedersen, and Jorge Soler.   After Acuna went to the IL I'd have bet most fans figured they were done.  Sometimes the stars align.

[terrydactyls]

Does anyone remember Jose Palacios?  Personally, I would rather have him at $700K than Urshela at $10M.

[Major League Ready]

The biggest determinant will probably be if Miranda adjusts to how the league is pitching him.  He had a stretch of a couple hundred ABs where he hit 330 and had an OPS over 900.  Now he is getting pitched tough and his plate discipline has not been as good.  They would have more confidence letting Urshela go if Miranda makes the necessary adjustments. 

[gman]

I think the key to how long Miranda stays at third base may be entirely dependent on where Lee and Lewis play. Miranda may only be at third for 1-2 years before he finds another position, which it seems he can handle at least for the short term..

[Karbo]

I don't understand why his def. rating is so low. I haven't missed a game this year, and he looks good out there. Maybe he's a bit limited in range, but he seems OK to me. That said, anything over 6-7 mil AAV would be too much IMO.

[weitz41]

He is what we've seen them (the FO) doing the last couple of seasons..Outside of an unexpected increase in pay he'll be back and really should be. Is he Correa NO..is he Celestino. NO. A quality player at a reasonable cost. He'll be back. I'll be happy to see him on the roster

[William K Johnson]

On 8/27/2022 at 2:06 PM, jorgenswest said:

Miranda is the better option at 3B. Arraez is the better option at 1B. I don’t think Urshela is a good utility option though he did play some SS for the Yankees. I think they have enough infield depth with Lewis, Gorden, Palacios and soon Julien. They probably should spend the dollars elsewhere. This is not a knock on Urshela who would earn his salary. They simply have better cost controlled options.

You have got to be kidding me.   Have you watched Miranda play third?   He makes Sano look like a gold glover.   Keep Urshela and hope Miranda learns to play first and DH.

[jorgenswest]

3 hours ago, William K Johnson said:

You have got to be kidding me.   Have you watched Miranda play third?   He makes Sano look like a gold glover.   Keep Urshela and hope Miranda learns to play first and DH.

Some of his metrics are better than Urshela’s this year but I will buy that Urshela is the better defender next year. At 3B I don’t think Urshela can come close to making up the difference in their bats with his glove. If limits on shifting are employed the need for range from a 3B even gets smaller. Miranda will likely improve both parts of his game with experience. Urshela will probably decline some next year. I really don’t think it will be that close next year.

[AlGoreRythm]

I want them to move on from Urshela simply because I can't stand his walk-up song at bat...

[Battle ur tail off]

On 8/27/2022 at 4:25 PM, mnfireman said:

I think that Correa's decision will influence the teams decision towards Miranda. If he stays Urshela becomes expendable, but there are still question marks - Lewis, Kirilloff, Larnach and even Polanco, not to mention Buxton and Kepler. 

The next question then becomes who to trade - Urshela or Arraez?? Urshela frees up $$, but Arraez brings back talent. Good be a tough call whichever way the team decides to go.

Yep trade the guy that won the batting title for a couple prospects. He’s young, cheap, takes great at bats, doesn’t miss time. 
Then you list off a bunch of guys with extensive injury histories. The best ability is availability. Just say no to moving Aaraez

[TwinsDr2021]

To me the twins have to figure out SS ASAP, then they can make a decision on Urshela. If Correa leaves and the Twins decide Jose Palacios is the SS, I want nothing to do with Miranda/Palacios left side of the infield (what is Plan B to that?), with all the other unknowns (AK, Jeffers, Laranch, Lewis, ect....)

If Correa Stays or they bring in another SS then I say give Miranda 3rd. At least Plan b can be Lewis.

[DJL44]

Quote

 His defense has also been below replacement level

Leaving aside the nitpick of "that's not how replacement level works" I am curious about the defensive value of Urshela and 2021 Platinum Glove winner Carlos Correa. Both pass the eye test, making the plays they should make when you're watching them in the field and often making standout athletic plays. Both also are each having one of their worst defensive seasons by more than one metric. I wonder if there is something in the shifting the Twins do that is causing the poor ratings. 

MLB Team Fielder Positioning | baseballsavant.com

The Twins shift the 3rd most against lefties which will leave Urshela by himself to cover the whole left side of the infield. They also have one of the worst wOBA against lefties. Not having a LH starting pitcher can't help there.

They don't shift particularly often (compared to the league as a whole) against RH batters and their wOBA against is better than average.

[DJL44]

Urshela is an average MLB player having an average season. Someone will want him on their team next season. The Twins should definitely tender him a contract.

[DJL44]

On 8/28/2022 at 8:04 AM, terrydactyls said:

Does anyone remember Jose Palacios?

I'm pretty sure you're not remembering him correctly.

[LA VIkes Fan]

Is Jose Palacios related to Jermaine Palacios? 

[Battle ur tail off]

I'd keep him around. I don't expect full seasons from Lewis or Kiriloff. Not ready to write them off for next year, but I would hedge my bets on both of them. They are both injury prone, no less of a risk than Buxton is. 

So, say Correa opts out and doesn't come back, Lewis plays 40 games, Kiriloff 75. Now you need him. I don't EVER want to see Aaraez play over at 3rd and Miranda, IMO, should split time between 3B, 1B and DH with Aaraez(no 3rd for him though!). Even if Lewis and AK stay healthy, look at our outfield this year, we are scraping for bodies. 

IDK, I just hate letting go useful players, especially when they would be on a one year deal. I think if nothing else, Urshella provides you insurance to injury and honestly, he has been available as much or more than any Twin. I bring him back all day, especially since it is just one year, unless there are plans to pursue someone else. I just can't or won't count on Lewis, AK, Buxton, to give you more than an average of 80-100 game each.

[USAFChief]

1 hour ago, Battle ur tail off said:

I'd keep him around. I don't expect full seasons from Lewis or Kiriloff. Not ready to write them off for next year, but I would hedge my bets on both of them. They are both injury prone, no less of a risk than Buxton is. 

So, say Correa opts out and doesn't come back, Lewis plays 40 games, Kiriloff 75. Now you need him. I don't EVER want to see Aaraez play over at 3rd and Miranda, IMO, should split time between 3B, 1B and DH with Aaraez(no 3rd for him though!). Even if Lewis and AK stay healthy, look at our outfield this year, we are scraping for bodies. 

IDK, I just hate letting go useful players, especially when they would be on a one year deal. I think if nothing else, Urshella provides you insurance to injury and honestly, he has been available as much or more than any Twin. I bring him back all day, especially since it is just one year, unless there are plans to pursue someone else. I just can't or won't count on Lewis, AK, Buxton, to give you more than an average of 80-100 game each.

I guess I can sorta understand how Lewis might factor into the decision whether or not to bring back Urshela. Sorta.

But Kirilloff?

Buxton???

The decision revolves around handing 3rd to Miranda and spending the $8-$9M elsewhere, or not.

 

[Aerodeliria]

On 8/28/2022 at 12:42 AM, dxpavelka said:

The Rosario decision was the "right" decision and yet we've spent two years wandering the desert searching for a LF while Eddie's wearing a ring.  Got it.

.190 and -1.70 WAR...

[Battle ur tail off]

10 hours ago, USAFChief said:

I guess I can sorta understand how Lewis might factor into the decision whether or not to bring back Urshela. Sorta.

But Kirilloff?

Buxton???

The decision revolves around handing 3rd to Miranda and spending the $8-$9M elsewhere, or not.

 

Kiriloff on the bench equals Miranda at 1st. Buxton sitting puts Lewis in CF. I’m with you, it’s either give Miranda 3b or not but I think all of these things factor into it. 

[dxpavelka]

11 hours ago, Aerodeliria said:

.190 and -1.70 WAR...

ring

 

[DJL44]

2 hours ago, dxpavelka said:

ring

Carlos Correa has a ring. I'd rather have him.

[LA VIkes Fan]

On 8/29/2022 at 8:56 AM, Battle ur tail off said:

I'd keep him around. I don't expect full seasons from Lewis or Kiriloff. Not ready to write them off for next year, but I would hedge my bets on both of them. They are both injury prone, no less of a risk than Buxton is. 

So, say Correa opts out and doesn't come back, Lewis plays 40 games, Kiriloff 75. Now you need him. I don't EVER want to see Aaraez play over at 3rd and Miranda, IMO, should split time between 3B, 1B and DH with Aaraez(no 3rd for him though!). Even if Lewis and AK stay healthy, look at our outfield this year, we are scraping for bodies. 

IDK, I just hate letting go useful players, especially when they would be on a one year deal. I think if nothing else, Urshella provides you insurance to injury and honestly, he has been available as much or more than any Twin. I bring him back all day, especially since it is just one year, unless there are plans to pursue someone else. I just can't or won't count on Lewis, AK, Buxton, to give you more than an average of 80-100 game each.

As you saw from my earlier post, I'm waffling on whether or not to keep Urshela if we lose Correa. I think your logic convinced me that we probably should keep him around regardless. He is not a great player but he is a useful player and excellent insurance if Miranda suffers a major sophomore slump, Arraez reverts to a .280 hitter with no power,  Kirilloff can't hit, Polanco gets hurt and Arraez plays 2B, etc.  $8m is actually not a lot for a slightly above average MLB player and it also won't buy you the #1 starting pitcher we really need.