Rocco Baldelli's future

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

5 hours ago, Irishman said:

Great post.   With Baldelli managing, I don’t give any S.   He needs to be gone next month.   Start house cleaning starts with FO, scouting and draft departments, and strength personnel!   

It might be too much housecleaning that got us into this mess….. ?

This was the top farm system 8 or 9 years ago. We needed a new team who would come in and gently usher it to the World Series and not do stuff like put Sano in right field. It started well enough in 2017, lots of people liked the 2018 trades at the deadline (not me), and 2019 was 2019. 

somewhere in there, it all went awry.
 

[chpettit19]

37 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

Again I agree Firing the manager won't sell any tickets, but keeping the same one might discourage people from going. What I am trying to say is selling the fans on the same team with the same manager is going to be tough sell. They are going to need to get fans excited this offseason to come back next year and winning games early might not be enough. (It wasn't really enough this year on top of extending Buxton, Signing Correa and trading for Gray, so in reality there might not be anything they can do this offseason, IDK.)

Maybe the attendance issue (or not an issue) is bigger than anything the Twins do, I know people that won't spend money in MPLS and have zero interest in being there after dark,

I just don't think what they do with Rocco is going to have any meaningful impact on selling tickets. 2021 went terrible and the fans were slow to come back in 2022, but after their hot start they did come back. Now the entire roster is injured (only slightly exaggerating there) and they aren't winning, or even fun to watch, so the fans have slowed.

I just don't think firing Rocco should be done for any reason other than you think there's somebody out there that you can bring in and the team will win more games with that person at the helm. I don't think the FO thinks there's a better option, but could certainly be wrong. If they think there's someone better and are going to fire Rocco I wish they would've done it during the season when things started going downhill instead of waiting til after the year. Maybe that shake up would've sparked something.

I also have friends who won't go to MPLS at all and think that has a real impact on ticket sales. Not much the team can do about that.

I think we mostly agree. It's going to be hard to sell tickets when there won't be many dramatic offseason moves to point to (I'm guessing) as reasons for renewed hope. Losing Correa is the most likely major move and it's going to be hard to produce a counter positive move that outweighs that. I don't think a new manager sways that in any real way. If they don't think they can win with Rocco they should fire him. But I think firing who you think the best option is simply to appease fans is a good way to get yourselves fired the next season when the new guy doesn't do better.

[In My La Z boy]

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

Can't you just flip this and say all 4 of those people weren't smart baseball people because they were also the reason for the '93-2000 failures and '11-'14 failures, and the other random failure seasons mixed in between '87 and '14? Ryan and Gardenhire were in charge at the start of "the streak" so why do they get credit for some sort of great success when they've accomplished 1 post season series win more than the current regime? Terry Ryan was also the one who made what many consider to be the single worst roster decision in Twins history. Not sure why they're considered smart baseball people and this regime wouldn't be when they're basically doing the exact same thing. Some inconsistent regular season success with no playoff success. That's basically the entire Ryan/Gardenhire tenure.

Playoff victories and world championships are the difference - and to this very day Falvey and Rocco are still relying on Terry Ryan's players. Should have gone all the way in '02 - most of our squads between "02 and '10 were very competitive - and again, Macphail and Kelly won 2 championships. Small market Minnesota just isn't going to be competitive for 25 straight years no matter who is in charge. I think we've given the boy wonder duo 6 years now and Rocco 4. So far zero playoff victories. Francona and the Guardians are the kind of team we used to be before the stat masters took over.

I like that team from Cleveland. Scrappy. We used to be scrappy. We're still playing bombs away like its 2019. Look at our pitching and catching. Falvey did that. Look at our contact rate - our batting average with runners in scoring position - our lack of a running game - our trades - 3 starters traded for in the last 2 years, all on the DL - after going into the last 2 seasons signing bupkis for starters. Where is the pitching pipeline? Everyone has injuries. I say no excuses. This team fell flat on their face since early June and is still tanking to this very minute. It is certainly someone's fault. I not suggesting anything other than frustration with how this season has gone, and wanting someone held responsible - and a big change to the off-season pattern of the last couple years. Sign an expensive bat, and take a flyer on a couple starters. This is what we've done 2 years in a row. Cleveland still has a far superior pitching staff. This was why Falvey got the job. Where is the pitching development, and adept trading skills we hired him for?

[chpettit19]

10 minutes ago, In My La Z boy said:

Playoff victories and world championships are the difference - and to this very day Falvey and Rocco are still relying on Terry Ryan's players. Should have gone all the way in '02 - most of our squads between "02 and '10 were very competitive - and again, Macphail and Kelly won 2 championships. Small market Minnesota just isn't going to be competitive for 25 straight years no matter who is in charge. I think we've given the boy wonder duo 6 years now and Rocco 4. So far zero playoff victories. Francona and the Guardians are the kind of team we used to be before the stat masters took over.

I like that team from Cleveland. Scrappy. We used to be scrappy. We're still playing bombs away like its 2019. Look at our pitching and catching. Falvey did that. Look at our contact rate - our batting average with runners in scoring position - our lack of a running game - our trades - 3 starters traded for in the last 2 years, all on the DL - after going into the last 2 seasons signing bupkis for starters. Where is the pitching pipeline? Everyone has injuries. I say no excuses. This team fell flat on their face since early June and is still tanking to this very minute. It is certainly someone's fault. I not suggesting anything other than frustration with how this season has gone, and wanting someone held responsible - and a big change to the off-season pattern of the last couple years. Sign an expensive bat, and take a flyer on a couple starters. This is what we've done 2 years in a row. Cleveland still has a far superior pitching staff. This was why Falvey got the job. Where is the pitching development, and adept trading skills we hired him for?

Fine, you can take Macphail and Kelly and label them as smart baseball guys because of their rings. But Terry Ryan and Gardy did nothing demonstrably more successful than the current regime has. "Should have gone all the way in '02?" Based on what? You liked the team? Twins should've gone all the way in 2019 then! Reality is that '02 team won 1 series before getting destroyed 4 games to 1 by the Angels. I just think Ryan and Gardy get a lot of love for not actually accomplishing anything. They won 1 playoff series. You're mad Falvine hasn't won in 6 years while praising Ryan for 1 series win in 18 seasons. The Twins were awful from 94 to 2001 when he took over. Just trying to provide a little perspective. If Falvey should be fired for his first 6 seasons I can't imagine how upset you were (or would have been, I don't know how old you are so don't know your level of investment in the 90s) when Ryan's teams didn't crack .500 until his 8th season. They then won 1 series the next season before following it with 2 more playoff game wins total in his next 11 seasons. Terry Ryan oversaw 6 total playoff game wins. 6. Don't get why his "success" is something we should be aiming for.

I mean if you're going to rag on them for Maeda being on the IL at least acknowledge him being the runner up for the Cy Young in 1 of his seasons after they traded for him. They also traded for Sonny Gray and his 3.09 ERA this year. Also traded for Joe Ryan. Also brought in, and developed, Jhoan Duran. Seems to be a success for them there. Developed Miranda. Ober/Winder/Jax developed. Louie Varland. Drafted and developed Jeffers. Arraez seems to have developed alright. Lewis sure looked nice when he was healthy. Seem to have gotten Gordon figured out and developed. Kirilloff and Larnach seem to have developed nicely when they're healthy. They certainly need to upgrade whatever processes they have for health/strength and conditioning/whatever keeps dudes off the IL. Totally failing there.

I agree they aren't a very scrappy team, and those scrappy teams are more fun to watch. But those scrappy teams also got crushed in the playoffs. Agree they need to spend on some front line pitching. Although, they did spend some prospect capital for Gray and Mahle. But would like to see a big FA signing for the rotation.

[In My La Z boy]

32 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Fine, you can take Macphail and Kelly and label them as smart baseball guys because of their rings. But Terry Ryan and Gardy did nothing demonstrably more successful than the current regime has. "Should have gone all the way in '02?" Based on what? You liked the team? Twins should've gone all the way in 2019 then! Reality is that '02 team won 1 series before getting destroyed 4 games to 1 by the Angels. I just think Ryan and Gardy get a lot of love for not actually accomplishing anything. They won 1 playoff series. You're mad Falvine hasn't won in 6 years while praising Ryan for 1 series win in 18 seasons. The Twins were awful from 94 to 2001 when he took over. Just trying to provide a little perspective. If Falvey should be fired for his first 6 seasons I can't imagine how upset you were (or would have been, I don't know how old you are so don't know your level of investment in the 90s) when Ryan's teams didn't crack .500 until his 8th season. They then won 1 series the next season before following it with 2 more playoff game wins total in his next 11 seasons. Terry Ryan oversaw 6 total playoff game wins. 6. Don't get why his "success" is something we should be aiming for.

I mean if you're going to rag on them for Maeda being on the IL at least acknowledge him being the runner up for the Cy Young in 1 of his seasons after they traded for him. They also traded for Sonny Gray and his 3.09 ERA this year. Also traded for Joe Ryan. Also brought in, and developed, Jhoan Duran. Seems to be a success for them there. Developed Miranda. Ober/Winder/Jax developed. Louie Varland. Drafted and developed Jeffers. Arraez seems to have developed alright. Lewis sure looked nice when he was healthy. Seem to have gotten Gordon figured out and developed. Kirilloff and Larnach seem to have developed nicely when they're healthy. They certainly need to upgrade whatever processes they have for health/strength and conditioning/whatever keeps dudes off the IL. Totally failing there.

I agree they aren't a very scrappy team, and those scrappy teams are more fun to watch. But those scrappy teams also got crushed in the playoffs. Agree they need to spend on some front line pitching. Although, they did spend some prospect capital for Gray and Mahle. But would like to see a big FA signing for the rotation.

No one here is ragging as you put it. I want to win. Your response to me was quite aggressive. I am older than you and have been watching this team since the '60's and I expected Falvey would build a team like the Guardians. He should have, but he is smarter apparently. Sometimes young and cocky isn't the best solution. He blew the last 2 off-seasons totally & Rocco is no Terry Francona. Zen master is getting us nowhere. In-game management is still a problem. Fundamentals are still a problem, but Rocco is a super nice guy with great conversation skills, so we've got that going for us.

Cleveland is always right there. Look at the player turnover and they are still right there. Pitching and fundamentals.

I tire of hearing about 2019 - that was Molitor and Ryan's team. 2020 was a ridiculous situation. True colors of this organization are on full display in 2021 and 2022. I don't like what I see. 

[notoriousgod71]

I don't remember many people happy with Ryan at a y point he was here.

 

My lasting memory of him will be him guest speaking at a high school baseball banquet the day before the state tournament.

 

During a QA session I implored and practically begged him not to draft Tyler Jay who I had heard we coveted.

 

He chuckled and proceeded to draft him anyway.

[chpettit19]

5 minutes ago, In My La Z boy said:

No one here is ragging as you put it. I want to win. Your response to me was quite aggressive. I am older than you and have been watching this team since the '60's and I expected Falvey would build a team like the Guardians. He should have, but he is smarter apparently. Sometimes young and cocky isn't the best solution. He blew the last 2 off-seasons totally & Rocco is no Terry Francona. Zen master is getting us nowhere. In-game management is still a problem. Fundamentals are still a problem, but Rocco is a super nice guy with great conversation skills, so we've got that going for us.

Cleveland is always right there. Look at the player turnover and they are still right there. Pitching and fundamentals.

I tire of hearing about 2019 - that was Molitor and Ryan's team. 2020 was a ridiculous situation. True colors of this organization are on full display in 2021 and 2022. I don't like what I see. 

Use whatever term you want, but you're most definitely talking poorly about the FO and Rocco. I mean it's the entire point of your post right there. I don't know why suggesting you're ragging on them gets pushback. You're saying they're bad at their jobs. Use whatever term you want to describe that, I guess. And I'm not even saying they haven't earned ragging. Just confused why you'd push back on that.

This back and forth started because you called Macphail, Kelly, Ryan, and Gardenhire "smart baseball people" while suggesting Falvey, Levine, and Rocco aren't "smart baseball people." I pointed out that Ryan and Gardenhire did nothing more than the current regime is doing. 6 playoff wins in 18 seasons for Ryan after taking 8 years to even have a .500 team. Your real point is that you enjoy the scrappy style of baseball over the current iteration of the Twins. I agree with that. Those piranha teams were more fun to watch with Santana and Liriano on the mound and action happening all over while the Twins were hitting. But those teams also completely failed in the playoffs. The recent Cleveland success lead to 1 World Series loss (which I'd certainly take for the Twins), and a bunch of early exits. But the teams are more enjoyable to watch.

I brought up 2019 simply because you brought up 2002 and suggest Ryan/Gardenhire should get some bonus credit for that team because they "should have gone all the way." I was simply pointing out that "should have gone all the way" doesn't mean anything. If you want Ryan to get credit for that 2019 playoff failure, fine. Looks like it's 6 playoff wins in 21 seasons since it was his teams in 2017-2019 that also failed to win playoff games. I'm just confused why Ryan gets labeled a "smart baseball person" when he had 6 playoff wins in 18 (or 21 if you want him to have credit for those early Falvey years) seasons. Doesn't seem like something we should be super impressed by.

You want to win. I want to win. Every Twins fan wants to win. It's what we watch the games for. Falvey is attempting to build a pitching pipeline like the one he built in Cleveland. He just hasn't succeeded yet (and maybe never will). So I don't know what the "but he is smarter" comment even means. He setup the pitching development program in Cleveland. Then he set it up the same thing here. He's not trying to be smarter, he's trying to do the exact same thing. And I'll just point out that Cleveland has brought in a bunch of power over hit, non-scrappy guys over the last handful of years, too. Franmil Reyes. Yasiel Puig. Bobby Bradley. Josh Naylor. Carlos Santana. Jake Bauers. Carlos Gonzalez. Hanley Ramirez. Yonder Alonso. Edwin Encarnacion. Josh Donaldson. They've hit the gold mine in pitching development lately and it's carried them in the regular season to competitive records. Every team is attempting to replicate what Cleveland has done with pitching development, including the Twins. It's just not that easy. And paying for the kind of pitching Cleveland has isn't realistic for the Twins, or basically any team. You have to develop it. And the Twins haven't managed to develop anything more than #3-5 type arms. So they've failed. And it likely costs Falvey his job in the next couple years if he doesn't turn Varland, SWR, Balazovic, Prielipp, or anyone into a frontline starter. But nobody in baseball is trying to emulate the Cleveland offensive strategy of continually not having enough hitting to win in the playoffs.

[Riverbrian]

1 hour ago, notoriousgod71 said:

I don't remember many people happy with Ryan at a y point he was here.

 

My lasting memory of him will be him guest speaking at a high school baseball banquet the day before the state tournament.

 

During a QA session I implored and practically begged him not to draft Tyler Jay who I had heard we coveted.

 

He chuckled and proceeded to draft him anyway.

Now that we know that. You are officially to blame. 

You had the chance to talk him off the ledge and you failed!!! ? 

[Riverbrian]

3 hours ago, In My La Z boy said:

and to this very day Falvey and Rocco are still relying on Terry Ryan's players.

I'm just asking for a clarification. 

If they are drafted by the Terry Ryan regime... Are they Terry Ryan's players?

Kirilloff for example was drafted by the Terry Ryan regime but spent the majority of his development time under Falvey. 

Who gets Kirilloff credit?  

 

[notoriousgod71]

48 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

Now that we know that. You are officially to blame. 

You had the chance to talk him off the ledge and you failed!!! ? 

To be fair I wanted him to draft Carson (not Michael) Fulmer.

[ashbury]

36 minutes ago, notoriousgod71 said:

To be fair I wanted him to draft Carson (not Michael) Fulmer.

I just looked up the transactions records for these two players.

Tyler Jay was traded to the Reds for cash. 

Carson Fulmer was picked up on waivers several times in his career. 

Sweet, sweet money.  For whatever the team wants to buy with it.

Versus, nothing whatsoever in return.

Jay was sold on June 10, 2019.  Matt Wallner was drafted on June 11.  They probably used the money to help with his signing bonus.

WE WON!  Terry Ryan was a drafting genius, and FalVine wound up vulturing the credit.

 

/ Sometimes people don't recognize tongue-in-cheek when they see it, so I'm spelling it out.  This was tongue-in-cheek.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Last year I gave Baldelli credit for a team that didn’t quit, despite the season being over in May.

This team quit with half the season left…

while I have defended Rocco, I’m not real happy with the effort this team has given despite the injury/talent gap.

[USAFChief]

Baldelli lost me about a month ago.

-Too many questionable pitching decisions, although I'm willing to accept there was often a "least objectionable" factor to account for. And some of it is Falvine driven. Still, I think there's enough evidence he's just not very good at this important task.

- This team is AWFUL at playing baseball. Might be the worst baserunning team I've ever seen. They don't understand team defense. They can't bunt or hit behind a runner. They give up 0-2 hits at a ridiculous rate. And on and on...and it's my uninformed opinion nobody, including the manager, thinks any of this is important enough to correct. It's also my opinion this is on the manager. You get the team you're willing to accept. 

- Way too much time off. Again, this might be an organizational philosophy more than just Rocco. But I sorta think it's more Rocco. In any case, I'm holding him responsible. He could resist, at the least, if he wanted. We end up with self inflicted lineup damage in addition to all the injuries. Not necessary. 

It won't happen, but I'd move on.

[Loosey]

Before the Yankees series I would say he likely gets another year due to a lot the injuries that happened.  However, the urgency the team had for the 7 most important games of the year is disheartening.  Rocco doesn't have the intensity needed in this type of scenario to get a team to fight for their playoff lives.  All that being said, who do they find to replace him and how much of this is on the front office?

[RickOShea]

On 8/28/2022 at 10:31 AM, ashbury said:

Most new cars lose value the moment you drive them off the lot, and after a couple years are worth hardly more than half what they were.  I guess I see very few managers as better than that.  Short-term value is the only value, except in rare cases.

I assume you subscribe to the view that most starting pitchers aren't nearly as good when facing the batting order a third time.  There are plenty of 5-inning pitchers out there, and the true 7-inning or 8-inning starter is a rarity. 

For a manager, the third spring training might be about like third time through the batting order.  Players have by then seen his "pitch assortment" and tune out, or whatever.  Maybe someone can conduct a study to see at what season most managers decline.

If you have a way to identify in advance who the next Francona is, I'm all ears.

I'm not ready to induct Francona into sainthood, yet.  Good job this year so far.  Of course the team wasn't all that great the first 4 months of the season.  Their are others who are capable of replicating Francona's 2022 season, so far.

[In My La Z boy]

15 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

I'm just asking for a clarification. 

If they are drafted by the Terry Ryan regime... Are they Terry Ryan's players?

Kirilloff for example was drafted by the Terry Ryan regime but spent the majority of his development time under Falvey. 

Who gets Kirilloff credit?  

 

To clarify - I guess I was speaking of Buxton, Polanco, Kepler, Gordon, Sano, Duffy who were all on the initial 26 man active to start the year. Not thinking of Kirilloff, Arraez who were acquired originally by the Ryan/Smith regime. Just making the point the 1/4th of the 2022 squad were core picks and players prior to Falvey/Levine. 

Not sure anyone gets credit for Kirilloff. This wrist thing is very bad, and if you read up on the particular surgery he had, it is quite experimental. I worry about him at this point. 

[In My La Z boy]

16 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

Use whatever term you want, but you're most definitely talking poorly about the FO and Rocco. I mean it's the entire point of your post right there. I don't know why suggesting you're ragging on them gets pushback. You're saying they're bad at their jobs. Use whatever term you want to describe that, I guess. And I'm not even saying they haven't earned ragging. Just confused why you'd push back on that.

This back and forth started because you called Macphail, Kelly, Ryan, and Gardenhire "smart baseball people" while suggesting Falvey, Levine, and Rocco aren't "smart baseball people." I pointed out that Ryan and Gardenhire did nothing more than the current regime is doing. 6 playoff wins in 18 seasons for Ryan after taking 8 years to even have a .500 team. Your real point is that you enjoy the scrappy style of baseball over the current iteration of the Twins. I agree with that. Those piranha teams were more fun to watch with Santana and Liriano on the mound and action happening all over while the Twins were hitting. But those teams also completely failed in the playoffs. The recent Cleveland success lead to 1 World Series loss (which I'd certainly take for the Twins), and a bunch of early exits. But the teams are more enjoyable to watch.

I brought up 2019 simply because you brought up 2002 and suggest Ryan/Gardenhire should get some bonus credit for that team because they "should have gone all the way." I was simply pointing out that "should have gone all the way" doesn't mean anything. If you want Ryan to get credit for that 2019 playoff failure, fine. Looks like it's 6 playoff wins in 21 seasons since it was his teams in 2017-2019 that also failed to win playoff games. I'm just confused why Ryan gets labeled a "smart baseball person" when he had 6 playoff wins in 18 (or 21 if you want him to have credit for those early Falvey years) seasons. Doesn't seem like something we should be super impressed by.

You want to win. I want to win. Every Twins fan wants to win. It's what we watch the games for. Falvey is attempting to build a pitching pipeline like the one he built in Cleveland. He just hasn't succeeded yet (and maybe never will). So I don't know what the "but he is smarter" comment even means. He setup the pitching development program in Cleveland. Then he set it up the same thing here. He's not trying to be smarter, he's trying to do the exact same thing. And I'll just point out that Cleveland has brought in a bunch of power over hit, non-scrappy guys over the last handful of years, too. Franmil Reyes. Yasiel Puig. Bobby Bradley. Josh Naylor. Carlos Santana. Jake Bauers. Carlos Gonzalez. Hanley Ramirez. Yonder Alonso. Edwin Encarnacion. Josh Donaldson. They've hit the gold mine in pitching development lately and it's carried them in the regular season to competitive records. Every team is attempting to replicate what Cleveland has done with pitching development, including the Twins. It's just not that easy. And paying for the kind of pitching Cleveland has isn't realistic for the Twins, or basically any team. You have to develop it. And the Twins haven't managed to develop anything more than #3-5 type arms. So they've failed. And it likely costs Falvey his job in the next couple years if he doesn't turn Varland, SWR, Balazovic, Prielipp, or anyone into a frontline starter. But nobody in baseball is trying to emulate the Cleveland offensive strategy of continually not having enough hitting to win in the playoffs.

We are in agreement - we want to win. You are correct in that so far no appreciable progress on developing #1/#2 starters and there is NOT much difference in performance between the Ryan vs Falvey regimes - I do like the older brand of baseball, scrappy and fundamentally sound - and my favorite type of field manager is more in the Francona/Gardenhire/Kelly mold.  Everyone's perspective is skewed toward their taste's, background and style. This is where we can respectfully disagree on future direction and future staffing decisions. 

[ICTwin25]

8 hours ago, RickOShea said:

I'm not ready to induct Francona into sainthood, yet.  Good job this year so far.  Of course the team wasn't all that great the first 4 months of the season.  Their are others who are capable of replicating Francona's 2022 season, so far.

I think Francona might be the best manager in the game. Since joining the Red Sox in 2004, he has ONE season with a losing record and that season was Cleveland where they went 80-82. His teams have won 90 games 11 times and he's made 3 World Series and should have won all 3 if it weren't for the choke job against the Cubs. 

I've thought for a while they were going to win the division and when you look at their roster it's hard to disagree with the fact that he's the reason they are in first place.

[USAFChief]

19 minutes ago, ICTwin25 said:

I think Francona might be the best manager in the game. Since joining the Red Sox in 2004, he has ONE season with a losing record and that season was Cleveland where they went 80-82. His teams have won 90 games 11 times and he's made 3 World Series and should have won all 3 if it weren't for the choke job against the Cubs. 

I've thought for a while they were going to win the division and when you look at their roster it's hard to disagree with the fact that he's the reason they are in first place.

I don't know about THE reason, but I certainly think A reason.

I also think LaRussa is one reason Chicago doesn't have the ALC locked up.

I'm not among those who think managers don't matter much.

[chpettit19]

7 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

I don't know about THE reason, but I certainly think A reason.

I also think LaRussa is one reason Chicago doesn't have the ALC locked up.

I'm not among those who think managers don't matter much.

I'll preface this by saying I'd absolutely take Francona over Rocco. So before anyone scolds me I'm laying that out from the jump.

That being said...part of why I don't think managers matter all that much (they matter, but not greatly) is that Francona was handed a great pitching staff and a bad offense and the pitching has been great and the offense has been bad. They're 22nd in baseball in runs. He's not spinning gold out of yarn with some magical managerial lineup genius. They're 8th in baseball in ERA. Is he doing something magical to get a bunch of arms we already knew were good to be good?

If the managers were switched what do we think the team ranks would be? Right now it's Cleveland at 22nd in runs, 8th in ERA, and the Twins 17th in runs, 19th in ERA. Do we think Rocco drops the Guardians down to 15th in ERA and 27th in runs? Does Francona jump this pitching staff to 11th in ERA and the injury riddle lineup to 8th in runs? That's the question to me. How much could a great manager really change in performance if the roster is the same? I don't know, but it doesn't feel like he'd magically have the Twins pitching staff in the top 10 in ERA or anything.

[USAFChief]

41 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

I'll preface this by saying I'd absolutely take Francona over Rocco. So before anyone scolds me I'm laying that out from the jump.

That being said...part of why I don't think managers matter all that much (they matter, but not greatly) is that Francona was handed a great pitching staff and a bad offense and the pitching has been great and the offense has been bad. They're 22nd in baseball in runs. He's not spinning gold out of yarn with some magical managerial lineup genius. They're 8th in baseball in ERA. Is he doing something magical to get a bunch of arms we already knew were good to be good?

If the managers were switched what do we think the team ranks would be? Right now it's Cleveland at 22nd in runs, 8th in ERA, and the Twins 17th in runs, 19th in ERA. Do we think Rocco drops the Guardians down to 15th in ERA and 27th in runs? Does Francona jump this pitching staff to 11th in ERA and the injury riddle lineup to 8th in runs? That's the question to me. How much could a great manager really change in performance if the roster is the same? I don't know, but it doesn't feel like he'd magically have the Twins pitching staff in the top 10 in ERA or anything.

Everything after "I'd take Francona over Rocco" is eyewash.

The Twins would have a better record with Francona. 

[chpettit19]

22 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

Everything after "I'd take Francona over Rocco" is eyewash.

The Twins would have a better record with Francona. 

1 game? 10 games? That matters if you're going to suggest managers really matter. 1 game out of 162 is "eyewash." If you're going to argue managers matter you can't just wave those of us who think they have minimal impact away with "they'd have a better record" and not suggest how much better it'd be. 1 game over 162 games means managers really don't have much of an impact at all. 20 games would be a significant impact. So do you think Francona would have the Twins at 79-60 or 70-69? 

[USAFChief]

16 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

1 game? 10 games? That matters if you're going to suggest managers really matter. 1 game out of 162 is "eyewash." If you're going to argue managers matter you can't just wave those of us who think they have minimal impact away with "they'd have a better record" and not suggest how much better it'd be. 1 game over 162 games means managers really don't have much of an impact at all. 20 games would be a significant impact. So do you think Francona would have the Twins at 79-60 or 70-69? 

You're not going to drag me into a "no it's 6 games not 4!" argument which obscures the point.

I believe if you switched Baldelli and Francona there's a strong likelihood the Twins and Cleveland swap current positions.

[chpettit19]

3 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

You're not going to drag me into a "no it's 6 games not 4!" argument which obscures the point.

I believe if you switched Baldelli and Francona there's a strong likelihood the Twins and Cleveland swap current positions.

Wasn't dragging you into a 6 vs 4 games thing. I literally used 1 and 10. I even provided what the Twins records would be with 10 or 1 more win. My apologies for making you have a real opinion on it instead of the vague "the record would be better."

[Battle ur tail off]

14 hours ago, USAFChief said:

Baldelli lost me about a month ago.

-Too many questionable pitching decisions, although I'm willing to accept there was often a "least objectionable" factor to account for. And some of it is Falvine driven. Still, I think there's enough evidence he's just not very good at this important task.

- This team is AWFUL at playing baseball. Might be the worst baserunning team I've ever seen. They don't understand team defense. They can't bunt or hit behind a runner. They give up 0-2 hits at a ridiculous rate. And on and on...and it's my uninformed opinion nobody, including the manager, thinks any of this is important enough to correct. It's also my opinion this is on the manager. You get the team you're willing to accept. 

- Way too much time off. Again, this might be an organizational philosophy more than just Rocco. But I sorta think it's more Rocco. In any case, I'm holding him responsible. He could resist, at the least, if he wanted. We end up with self inflicted lineup damage in addition to all the injuries. Not necessary. 

It won't happen, but I'd move on.

I am with you on almost this entire post. Rocco won't be fired, but he has done a poor job managing the pitching staff this year. The team has lacked fundamentals and made plenty of bonehead baserunning plays also. His teams have consistently been atop the list for errors per game as well.

I don't care if this makes a 2 game difference or 10, but it makes a difference. 

[Craig Arko]

This appears to have become a ‘my belief is better than your belief’ thread. Maybe we just don’t know what, if any, difference a different manager would make or have made. Maybe it doesn’t matter even if making for mildly entertaining counterfactual fiction.

[Brock Beauchamp]

On 9/12/2022 at 3:34 PM, chpettit19 said:

Use whatever term you want, but you're most definitely talking poorly about the FO and Rocco. I mean it's the entire point of your post right there. I don't know why suggesting you're ragging on them gets pushback. You're saying they're bad at their jobs. Use whatever term you want to describe that, I guess. And I'm not even saying they haven't earned ragging. Just confused why you'd push back on that.

This back and forth started because you called Macphail, Kelly, Ryan, and Gardenhire "smart baseball people" while suggesting Falvey, Levine, and Rocco aren't "smart baseball people." I pointed out that Ryan and Gardenhire did nothing more than the current regime is doing. 6 playoff wins in 18 seasons for Ryan after taking 8 years to even have a .500 team. Your real point is that you enjoy the scrappy style of baseball over the current iteration of the Twins. I agree with that. Those piranha teams were more fun to watch with Santana and Liriano on the mound and action happening all over while the Twins were hitting. But those teams also completely failed in the playoffs. The recent Cleveland success lead to 1 World Series loss (which I'd certainly take for the Twins), and a bunch of early exits. But the teams are more enjoyable to watch.

I brought up 2019 simply because you brought up 2002 and suggest Ryan/Gardenhire should get some bonus credit for that team because they "should have gone all the way." I was simply pointing out that "should have gone all the way" doesn't mean anything. If you want Ryan to get credit for that 2019 playoff failure, fine. Looks like it's 6 playoff wins in 21 seasons since it was his teams in 2017-2019 that also failed to win playoff games. I'm just confused why Ryan gets labeled a "smart baseball person" when he had 6 playoff wins in 18 (or 21 if you want him to have credit for those early Falvey years) seasons. Doesn't seem like something we should be super impressed by.

You want to win. I want to win. Every Twins fan wants to win. It's what we watch the games for. Falvey is attempting to build a pitching pipeline like the one he built in Cleveland. He just hasn't succeeded yet (and maybe never will). So I don't know what the "but he is smarter" comment even means. He setup the pitching development program in Cleveland. Then he set it up the same thing here. He's not trying to be smarter, he's trying to do the exact same thing. And I'll just point out that Cleveland has brought in a bunch of power over hit, non-scrappy guys over the last handful of years, too. Franmil Reyes. Yasiel Puig. Bobby Bradley. Josh Naylor. Carlos Santana. Jake Bauers. Carlos Gonzalez. Hanley Ramirez. Yonder Alonso. Edwin Encarnacion. Josh Donaldson. They've hit the gold mine in pitching development lately and it's carried them in the regular season to competitive records. Every team is attempting to replicate what Cleveland has done with pitching development, including the Twins. It's just not that easy. And paying for the kind of pitching Cleveland has isn't realistic for the Twins, or basically any team. You have to develop it. And the Twins haven't managed to develop anything more than #3-5 type arms. So they've failed. And it likely costs Falvey his job in the next couple years if he doesn't turn Varland, SWR, Balazovic, Prielipp, or anyone into a frontline starter. But nobody in baseball is trying to emulate the Cleveland offensive strategy of continually not having enough hitting to win in the playoffs.

Why are we propping up the Cleveland front office when literally all they needed for about four years was an outfield bat and they failed to pick one up year after year after year?

Yeah, they're really good at developing pitching. The team could be a powerhouse if the front office was even a little bit capable of developing a bat and/or the ownership wasn't a cheap dumpster fire.

When you step back and take a bird's eye view of the organization, Cleveland isn't that different than Minnesota, they're just the inverse of one another. One develops pitching, the other hitting. Neither does a damned thing in the postseason.

[Brock Beauchamp]

22 hours ago, USAFChief said:

You're not going to drag me into a "no it's 6 games not 4!" argument which obscures the point.

I believe if you switched Baldelli and Francona there's a strong likelihood the Twins and Cleveland swap current positions.

Sure, and if you swapped literally the healthiest roster in baseball with the third least healthy roster in baseball, I suspect the records of the two teams would look a little different.

It's pretty easy to win when your roster has lost 660 days to the IL. It's a lot harder to win when your roster has lost nearly 2,000 days to the IL.

I'm not even defending Rocco here, I'm very frustrated with him and his performance this season... but the Guardians are just above mediocre while having the most fortunate health in all of baseball in 2022.

Maybe, just maybe, Rocco would be a "better" manager if the front office stopped trading for injured pitchers.

[Squirrel]

1 hour ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Maybe, just maybe, Rocco would be a "better" manager if the front office stopped trading for injured pitchers.

This, and actually build a great BP