Matt Wallner’s Ceiling Compares to This Big-League Slugger

[Cody Christie]

Matt Wallner is having a breakout season at Double- and Triple-A. Is his ceiling similar to a current big-league slugger?

The Twins’ current front office selected Matt Wallner with the 39th overall pick in the 2019 MLB Draft. The Minnesota native dominated at Southern Mississippi in three collegiate seasons by hitting .337/.461/.652 (1.113) with 39 doubles and 58 home runs in 189 games. He compiled these tremendous offensive numbers while still being a part-time pitcher during his freshman and sophomore seasons. An arm injury forced him to focus on hitting as a junior, and his raw power made it tough for potential organizations to ignore. 

After signing with the Twins, Wallner played 65 games in his professional debut. In rookie ball and Low-A, he posted an .810 OPS with 31 extra-base hits and an 80-to-24 strikeout to walk ratio. With no 2020 minor league season, Wallner spent most of the 2021 campaign at High-A. He broke his hamate bone and missed a chunk of the season but hit 15 home runs in only 66 games. Following the season, the Twins sent him to the AFL, where he posted a 1.011 OPS with six home runs in 79 plate appearances. 

Wallner used his AFL time to jumpstart his 2022 season. In 78 Double-A games, he hit .299/.436/.597 (1.033) with 15 doubles and 21 home runs. Since being promoted to Triple-A, he has continued to get on base over 32% of the time and has nine extra-base hits in 29 games. Unlike many power hitters, his OPS is only separated by seven points between right- and left-handed pitchers. For the first time in his pro career, Wallner has been younger than the average age of the competition throughout the season. 

Wallner’s swing-and-miss approach comes with the associated flaws of a power hitter. He has accumulated 148 strikeouts in his first 107 games this season. In 2021, he struck out 31% of the time, but he was dealing with an injury and missed an entire season of development during the 2020 campaign. There are also concerns about his eventual defensive value, but the organization continues to use him regularly as a right fielder. Wallner has been charged with six errors in 173 chances this season. 

MLB Pipeline recently updated their top-30 Twins prospects, and Wallner moved into the organization’s top-5 prospects. Part of their scouting report on Wallner said, “he does have a Joey Gallo-esque offensive ceiling.” Gallo is in his sixth full-time season at the big-league level and has hit .202/.328/.475 (.804) with three seasons of 38 or more home runs. Like Wallner, he strikes out a lot, with three seasons of 196 or more strikeouts. 

Strikeouts have become a more regular part of baseball in recent years, so Wallner should carve out a role at the big-league level. Minnesota likely would have called him up this season if he were a right-handed hitter as the team deals with injuries to Trevor Larnach, Alex Kirilloff, and Byron Buxton. Wallner has the potential to be as good as Gallo, but he will need to continue to improve some of his flaws. 

Do you think Wallner can have a similar career to Gallo? What is Wallner’s ceiling? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. 

 

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[TwinsDr2021]

The problem with is that Gallo at Wallners age already had over 100 MLB homers and and WAR of 10 and besides his age 27 season has been terrible since.

Gallo was playing in the majors at age 21 and if Wallner doesn't come up this year he will be 25 at the start of next season, so I don't see how the two compare at all.

[dxpavelka]

hope not

[mikelink45]

I hope not - Gallo is a terrible comp for anyone in my opinion.  I do not like the all or nothing batters.  I like Miranda and Arraez who between HRs get on base, drive in runs, and score.  

I have been hopeful that Wallner could make the transitions, but I am surprised by his age.  I thought he was still a young prospect.  At 25 it is time for the next move.

[Trov]

Even before I read I said to myself, Joey Gallo is who he was going to say.  Personally, I am not a fan of that style of hitter, unless they are hitting HR with runners on or at least hits with RISP, I do not care how many solo HR a guy hits.  Sure, in some games they may win, but all too often they strike out or fail when RISP but when game is blow out one way or other they hit a solo HR so season numbers look good. 

I used to always point to Trevor Plouffe on this issue, This year Buxton has had a similar season where he gets HR and extra base hits when no one is on, but when runners on he strikes out too much failing to drive runs in.  We get in awe of the HR and power, but forget that with 1 out and runner on third they swing through a pitch out of the zone, but love the light tower power when pitcher is just trying to get through the at bat. 

[Linus]

I wonder if a less lively ball is going to make the all or nothing sluggers less attractive. We’ve got enough swing and miss in our lineup. Perhaps a trade is the best outcome. 

[RJA]

Oh my, Cody, I was hoping for a better comparison than Gallo!  But, the reality is you might be right.  He has struggled while at St. Paul which is usual for him when he moves up a level, but he only has 3 homers in 30 some games and is not making consistent contact,  Like Gallo, he walks a lot, has prodigious power, and has trouble making contact.  He is not the defensive player Gallo is despite his great arm.  And, as others noted, he is older than many prospects.  I like the kid and am pulling for him, but I am not sure that he will be able to adjust to the great sliders and off speed stuff at the next level.  Let's hope so.

[Otaknam]

Wallner has more speed than Gallo so that should help his on base percentage. He is considered a better defensive outfielder and has a great arm and likely profiles as a right fielder. His strikeouts will be high but hopefully he learns to drive the ball to all fields and doesn’t frustrate like Sano, who failed to adjust and never became a big league hitter. One home run or nothing player is enough! 

[saviking]

I can't believe all the negativity on this thread. Right now our biggest problem is offensive production and a lack of home runs. When Polanco leads your team with 16 and very few others or in the teens you have a problem. Wallner can fix this. 

As for dead balls, it's takes someone with massive power to spank the ball over the fence. Man, lighten up on the kid he has hit in every level and will be hitting triple A balls over the fence before the year is out. I think he's a shoe in to be in the majors no later than mid next year as he will be the first one called up when an injury occurs. Then let's see what he's got.

[saviking]

Just now, saviking said:

I can't believe all the negativity on this thread. Right now our biggest problem is offensive production and a lack of home runs. When Polanco leads your team with 16 and very few others or in the teens you have a problem. Wallner can fix this. 

As for dead balls, it's takes someone with massive power to spank the ball over the fence. Man, lighten up on the kid he has hit in every level and will be hitting triple A balls over the fence before the year is out. I think he's a shoe in to be in the majors no later than mid next year as he will be the first one called up when an injury occurs. Then let's see what he's got.

Okay, in my haste I left off Buxton. I'm sure I will get slammed now .;)

[Karbo]

If only he was right handed. Maybe if they can get a manager that isn't always leaning on the righty/lefty against same side pitchers he will get a look.

[chpettit19]

24 minutes ago, Otaknam said:

Wallner has more speed than Gallo so that should help his on base percentage. He is considered a better defensive outfielder and has a great arm and likely profiles as a right fielder. His strikeouts will be high but hopefully he learns to drive the ball to all fields and doesn’t frustrate like Sano, who failed to adjust and never became a big league hitter. One home run or nothing player is enough! 

I wouldn't bet on Wallner having more speed. They're probably pretty close. Gallo is 46th percentile in sprint speed. Wallner gets pretty universal 40 grades on his speed which means he's actually probably slower than Gallo. Wallner gets mostly 40-45 grades on his defense (fangraphs actually has him at a 30, yikes) while Gallo has 2 gold gloves. Wallner is not a good defender and not even in the same league as Gallo.

[TwinsDr2021]

24 minutes ago, saviking said:

I can't believe all the negativity on this thread. Right now our biggest problem is offensive production and a lack of home runs. When Polanco leads your team with 16 and very few others or in the teens you have a problem. Wallner can fix this. 

As for dead balls, it's takes someone with massive power to spank the ball over the fence. Man, lighten up on the kid he has hit in every level and will be hitting triple A balls over the fence before the year is out. I think he's a shoe in to be in the majors no later than mid next year as he will be the first one called up when an injury occurs. Then let's see what he's got.

Is pointing out facts really negativity or more of a realist? He is really old for a top prospect, not hitting well at AAA, and not fast and not a great defensive outfielder. Plus very few players that turn out to be anything get to the majors at age 25 or older so most might temper their expectations based on these facts.

[PDX Twin]

Kind of profiles more like a lefty Miguel Sano to me, though he's probably better in the outfield.

[tony&rodney]

Wallner has big power, big arm, and knows the strike zone. He is young enough to become a passable outfielder with a couple of thousand repetitions, but struggles with the glove right now. If he adjusts to AAA there is a solid chance he would also make an adjustment in MLB. Wallner is a decent prospect but we should not worry about his age. Sometimes bigger players take a few years to get in sync.

[bean5302]

The season strike out percentages don't tell a very clear story on Wallner. His strikeout rate has improved every single month this year.

April = 39.2% strikeouts
May = 31.4% strikeouts
June = 29.5% strikeouts
July = 29.5% strikeouts with a promotion to AAA
August = 28.4% strikeouts

Wallner has also reached base in 20 of 21 games this month with a consistent high walk rate. Seems like he's adapting to a more sustainable approach.

Not sure how well Gallo is as a comp. Gallo struck out a lot more than Wallner in the upper minors (pretty consistent 37%) and he covered center field when he came up as I recall. His sprint speeds were on par with Nick Gordon. Even today, Gallo would outrun Larnach, Arraez and Correa. Basically, Gallo had significant defensive value and that's a major reason why Gallo was in the big show at age 21.
 

[purplesoldier4u]

3 hours ago, Otaknam said:

Wallner has more speed than Gallo so that should help his on base percentage. He is considered a better defensive outfielder and has a great arm and likely profiles as a right fielder. His strikeouts will be high but hopefully he learns to drive the ball to all fields and doesn’t frustrate like Sano, who failed to adjust and never became a big league hitter. One home run or nothing player is enough! 

Gallo is actually not a horrible outfielder. Watching Wallner play, I'm not I would want him in my outfield ... at the MLB level, Can he play first base?

[old nurse]

Regular players not named Joey Gallo that strike out more than 30% are going by the wayside.  Wallner will have to adjust. 

[FlyingFinn]

2 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

Wallner gets mostly 40-45 grades on his defense (fangraphs actually has him at a 30, yikes) while Gallo has 2 gold gloves. Wallner is not a good defender

I find it so hard to get accurate defensive information on our minor leaguers. From just reading comments from TD, it seems he has a great arm. I'm thinking he catches the ball when he gets to it but is slow. Does he get a good jump on balls off the bat? IMO he has to do everything else well to play defensively in RF in the majors if he is slow. Will never be a Kepler defensively but we will still need guys who hit homers to go with our Arraez's. But then we need great defenders somewhere out there.

[chpettit19]

34 minutes ago, FlyingFinn said:

I find it so hard to get accurate defensive information on our minor leaguers. From just reading comments from TD, it seems he has a great arm. I'm thinking he catches the ball when he gets to it but is slow. Does he get a good jump on balls off the bat? IMO he has to do everything else well to play defensively in RF in the majors if he is slow. Will never be a Kepler defensively but we will still need guys who hit homers to go with our Arraez's. But then we need great defenders somewhere out there.

He's got a great arm. But really bad reads and slow.

[mnfireman]

4 hours ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

Plus very few players that turn out to be anything get to the majors at age 25 or older so most might temper their expectations based on these facts.

While this has generally been true in years past, the lost minor league season of 2020 has influenced when many players reach MLB. For those that chose to go to college, they are reaching MLB at later ages. On the flip side, it also kept the player's minor league time control clock ticking, resulting in some players being rushed to the majors for fear of losing them to the Rule 5 draft. 

Under normal circumstances, Wallner would have been called up last season, but he lost that year of development, and wasn't.

[jkcarew]

Major league teams have seen fit to play Gallo in CF in nearly 60 games. This will NEVER happen with Wallner. Gallo is much better defensively.

On the other hand, I’d like to think his offensive ceiling is a bit better than Gallo. Again…at least ceiling-wise.

[RpR]

When Wallner stops being the flavour of the month, who is next?

[dxpavelka]

11 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

I hope not - Gallo is a terrible comp for anyone in my opinion.  I do not like the all or nothing batters.  I like Miranda and Arraez who between HRs get on base, drive in runs, and score.  

I have been hopeful that Wallner could make the transitions, but I am surprised by his age.  I thought he was still a young prospect.  At 25 it is time for the next move.

The exercise was not to make a likeable comparison.  It was to make an accurate one.  Of course we'd like him to end up more like MIranda and Arraez than Gallo.  Worth noting that Gallo is a 2 time All-Star, Gold Glove winner and 40 home run hitter.  I guess time will be the judge.

[DocBauer]

OK, just going to get this out of the way 1st. Like everyone else, I'm sick and tired of mentioning the lost 2020 season. But being sick and tired of it doesn't change the facts that all but a handful of prospects missed an entire season of playing and developing. (The "handful" were at an alternate site). Wallner may be 25 next season, but as a prospect he's equivalent to 24yo next year. I just don't believe a missed year can be so easily dismissed when we talk about the ages of players, more so college draftees.

I'm actually optimistic about Wallner, but cautiously so. Others have watched him play defense, I haven't. But it seems like he runs "OK" based on doubles and an increase in his SB. Or is that luck? The arm sounds great. I do believe repetition, work, and coaching can iron out his defense to be at least solid. Am I wrong?

He's probably always going to K quite a bit. But as pointed out above, his K percentage this year has actually declined per month, showing development and recognition. His OB and BB totals are relatively solid. And if he's nothing but a future K windmill, then why is he hitting in the .290's for the season? I'm thinking he can actually HIT and take some BB despite SO quite a bit. Is he a better HITTING version of Sano from the LH side? If so, there's real value in his offensive potential.

I am curious in regard to his OPS being only a few points different in regard to facing LH/RH pitching. Is that 2022 or his career? Either way, it shows either consistency OR potential growth.

I think it's easy to see him as a big guy with some errors and SO and think he's questionable as a ML player. I get it. And again, I'm CAUTIOUSLY optimistic. I don't think he's Rooker part 2. I see a guy who can run well enough for some doubles and a surprise in SB to think he's not exactly a statue and can work on his defense. I see a hitter who can actually HIT a little, takes some walks, and seems to be able to adapt and actually lower his K rate as time goes on. If what what was posted in the OP is accurate, he's far from an auto out against LHP.

I like Larnach and AK better at this point in all regards, though Wallner probably has more pure HR power than either, TBD.  And he has to CONTINUE to grow defensively as well as offensively,  proving he can continue to do what he's been doing, which is be a hitter with decent OB and average. 

But I think he grew a lot between the AFL and this current season. Again, I'm cautiously optimistic but I wouldn't bet against him at this point. Constant growth is a good sign.

[bean5302]

I hate to break this to people, but Wallner was drafted in 2019. Wallner's ETA would have been 2021 at the very earliest and 2022 would have been a perfectly reasonable timeframe for him even with a full 2020 season. He's been promoted at a good pace.

Theoretical No Lost 2020 schedule.
2019 A- Ball
2020 A+/AA
2021 AA/AAA
2022 AAA/MLB

Would anybody believe that wasn't a solid promotion schedule for a late comp A pick? Now remove 2020... Wallner's moving right along in the minors. He was drafted a year after Larnach and 2 years after Rooker. 

[Steve Lein]

Have watched a lot of Wallner this year, especially while with Wichita.

Even with all the strikeouts, I have to say he was taking great at-bats. And almost everything he hit was absolutely scorched. He also wasn't struggling against any pitch in particular, he was clubbing fastballs, breaking balls, inside/outside, high/low, it didn't matter. He's adjusting to triple-A now, and I expect him to have a big final month.

As for defense...GREAT arm (best in system, no doubt), and he's mobile enough underway, but I'll leave it at that.