MLB Media Salivating over Exit Velocity is Getting Ridiculous

[bean5302]

I don't care about this play which was advertised and my opinion is the only thing which matters in this world so I'm angry the play was advertised.

That's pretty much what this entire thread boils down to.

[nicksaviking]

Seems to me Dick Bremer can't go a month without mentioning Harmon Killebrew's upper deck shot at the Met. Fans have always cared, even if they didn't use exit velocity to measure stuff.

Few people actually bought Dave Kingman, Rob Deer or Adam Dunn jerseys but they sure as hell stayed in their seats when they came to the plate to see if they'd launch a moon shot. It should go without saying that exit velocity portends moon shots.

[Nine of twelve]

1 hour ago, nicksaviking said:

Seems to me Dick Bremer can't go a month without mentioning Harmon Killebrew's upper deck shot at the Met. Fans have always cared, even if they didn't use exit velocity to measure stuff.

Few people actually bought Dave Kingman, Rob Deer or Adam Dunn jerseys but they sure as hell stayed in their seats when they came to the plate to see if they'd launch a moon shot. It should go without saying that exit velocity portends moon shots.

Dave Kingman personified the saying--swing as hard as you can in case the ball hits your bat.

[Seth Stohs]

On 8/26/2022 at 9:00 AM, Reptevia said:

This exemplifies everything I hate about analytics. Most of the metrics measure “potential “ outcomes. Apparently, the “counting” categories (you know, counting things that actually happen) are meaningless in today’s game. If we’re only putting value on potential outcomes, why not just have a pro day and hand out the trophies?

Obviously all statistics are just that, a measure of what has happened in the past. And when a manager is considering a lineup or a pinch hitter, etc., knowing what has happened in the past can help in an attempt to put players in good positions to succeed. It's not saying they will. In fact, if a player gets on 45% of the time in some situation, that would be tremendous, but still means he's more likely to get out... just less likely than someone who gets on 30% of the time. 

Not sure why people are so offended by having a measurement of something that all coaches preach and want... Exit Velocity is just a measurement of how hard a ball was hit, not the result. Hit the ball hard, the better the chance that the result is positive, but guarantees nothing. Launch Angle... Just don't hit the ball on the ground, or too high in the air... Again, nothing new, just a measurement. 

Player X - hit .285 with an avg exit velocity of 82 mph. 
Player Y - hit .245 with an avg exit velocity of 92 mph. 
*All else about these two players are the same, same hitting environment, play the same position, same age...

Which one would you want the team to sign in the offseason? The guy who hits the ball harder more often or the guy who likely had several bloopers fall in? 

[MMMordabito]

10 minutes ago, Seth Stohs said:

Player X - hit .285 with an avg exit velocity of 82 mph. 
Player Y - hit .245 with an avg exit velocity of 92 mph. 
*All else about these two players are the same, same hitting environment, play the same position, same age...

Which one would you want the team to sign in the offseason? The guy who hits the ball harder more often or the guy who likely had several bloopers fall in? 

Likely had several bloopers fall in? Or, is just better at placing the ball?

[terrydactyls]

35 minutes ago, Seth Stohs said:

Obviously all statistics are just that, a measure of what has happened in the past. And when a manager is considering a lineup or a pinch hitter, etc., knowing what has happened in the past can help in an attempt to put players in good positions to succeed. It's not saying they will. In fact, if a player gets on 45% of the time in some situation, that would be tremendous, but still means he's more likely to get out... just less likely than someone who gets on 30% of the time. 

Not sure why people are so offended by having a measurement of something that all coaches preach and want... Exit Velocity is just a measurement of how hard a ball was hit, not the result. Hit the ball hard, the better the chance that the result is positive, but guarantees nothing. Launch Angle... Just don't hit the ball on the ground, or too high in the air... Again, nothing new, just a measurement. 

Player X - hit .285 with an avg exit velocity of 82 mph. 
Player Y - hit .245 with an avg exit velocity of 92 mph. 
*All else about these two players are the same, same hitting environment, play the same position, same age...

Which one would you want the team to sign in the offseason? The guy who hits the ball harder more often or the guy who likely had several bloopers fall in? 

I'll take player X please.

[Seth Stohs]

46 minutes ago, MMMordabito said:

Likely had several bloopers fall in? Or, is just better at placing the ball?

Possible. I mean, nothing is more annoying that an unwillingness to beat the shift... but if I'm in charge, i want guys that hit the ball hard.  And, honestly, there are places for both in a lineup, for sure. 

[Seth Stohs]

30 minutes ago, terrydactyls said:

I'll take player X please.

OK... how come? 

 

[bean5302]

34 minutes ago, MMMordabito said:

Likely had several bloopers fall in? Or, is just better at placing the ball?

Nobody can "place the ball." Even the very best hitters in MLB history cannot place the ball. The direction of the ball's path is largely determined by the player's stance and swing. The rest depends on timing. Some players have swings which just don't stay in a good plane of the strike zone very long making the timing more critical so choosing the direction of the ball is virtually impossible. Besides that, if players could just "place the ball" they'd never record an out, ever. Every ball in play would be a hit. Every time.

Paul Goldschmidt is this year's biggest outlier with a batting average 72pts higher than expected. Is he able to "place the ball?" Here's his history.
AVG versus xBA
2015 .321 vs .279 = +42
2016 .297 vs .271 = +26 
2017 .290 vs .284 = +6
2018 .260 vs .271 = -11
2019 .304 vs .257 = +47 
2020 .294 vs .285 = +9
2021 .338 vs .265 = +73

Even though Goldy is one of the best hitters in MLB, he's not able to consistently record batting averages far over his expected. The median and mean average? +26-27pts. Less than 10%.

[Siehbiscuit]

I look at the underlying metrics being talked about (launch angle, exit velo, etc) vs the result of the at-bat is similar to what I do at work. I have been in sales for 20+ years and IMO, the salespeople that deliver the best results are those that consistently demonstrate the most consistent behavior. 

WARNING: Over-simplification coming - If two salespeople each closed 5 deals last month, how can I predict/forecast what each one can or will produce next month? You look at the behaviors of what they are doing (calls made, appointments set, etc). By tracking "leading indicators" and pairing them with the lagging indicators, you can better predict future outcomes. 

These are similar to the metrics that are being talked about. Players that have a higher barrel rate will tend to get more hits. They'll get unlucky, sure, but more often than not when evaluating multiple things or players the underlying numbers (leading indicators) add more predictive value than just the lagging indicators alone (batting average, OBP, hits, BB, etc).

[nicksaviking]

1 hour ago, terrydactyls said:

I'll take player X please.

If there's a 10 MPH exit velocity difference, than player X probably had considerably fewer XBH to go along with the modestly better batting average.

I mean, is Ben Revere a better player than Torii Hunter?

[MMMordabito]

45 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Nobody can "place the ball." Even the very best hitters in MLB history cannot place the ball. The direction of the ball's path is largely determined by the player's stance and swing. The rest depends on timing. Some players have swings which just don't stay in a good plane of the strike zone very long making the timing more critical so choosing the direction of the ball is virtually impossible. Besides that, if players could just "place the ball" they'd never record an out, ever. Every ball in play would be a hit. Every time.

Paul Goldschmidt is this year's biggest outlier with a batting average 72pts higher than expected. Is he able to "place the ball?" Here's his history.
AVG versus xBA
2015 .321 vs .279 = +42
2016 .297 vs .271 = +26 
2017 .290 vs .284 = +6
2018 .260 vs .271 = -11
2019 .304 vs .257 = +47 
2020 .294 vs .285 = +9
2021 .338 vs .265 = +73

Even though Goldy is one of the best hitters in MLB, he's not able to consistently record batting averages far over his expected. The median and mean average? +26-27pts. Less than 10%.

This is simply false.  Players swing with less than max effort and alter their swings all the time (e.g. taking an outside pitch the other way), effectively placing the ball.

[terrydactyls]

3 hours ago, Seth Stohs said:

OK... how come? 

 

Because he gets on base more often than Player Y which provides RBI chances for other hitters.

[terrydactyls]

2 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

If there's a 10 MPH exit velocity difference, than player X probably had considerably fewer XBH to go along with the modestly better batting average.

I mean, is Ben Revere a better player than Torii Hunter?

40 point higher batting average is "modestly better"?  That's 20 to 25 more hits every year.

[Mike Sixel]

On 8/29/2022 at 11:48 AM, MMMordabito said:

Likely had several bloopers fall in? Or, is just better at placing the ball?

Players can't place the ball. Joey Votto has talked about this repeatedly when fans say, just hit the ball the other way. The ball is moving and coming at 90+miles per hour.....

[MMMordabito]

1 hour ago, Mike Sixel said:

Players can't place the ball. Joey Votto has talked about this repeatedly when fans say, just hit the ball the other way. The ball is moving and coming at 90+miles per hour.....

It's exactly what they do when they bunt, quiet their swings or choke up and shorten their swings. It's sacrificing power to gain bat control.  

[Mike Sixel]

3 hours ago, MMMordabito said:

It's exactly what they do when they bunt, quiet their swings or choke up and shorten their swings. It's sacrificing power to gain bat control.  

You're arguing with Joey Votto, not me. I trust him over anyone on this board... 

[MMMordabito]

6 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

You're arguing with Joey Votto, not me. I trust him over anyone on this board... 

Argumentum ad verecundiam ... Nice try