Carlos Correa: Poking Holes in the Opting-Out Theory Opinion Piece

[tfbw]

24 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Your point seemed to be that he may consider picking up his player option because he's having a "substandard production" season, and thus wouldn't be able to get a big contract on the market. If I misunderstood what was meant by "the other "insurance" his current contract provides is against "substandard production" I apologize.

But he won't be chasing AAV this offseason, he'll be chasing total guaranteed money. I provided some statistical examples of why he has every reason to believe he's going to be able to blow 2 years and 70 mil out of the water. Marcus Simien was entering his age 31 season when he got 175 mil last offseason. He'd only topped 100 in OPS+ twice in his entire career, and is only at 102 this season. He got 100 million more than Correa currently has locked up despite now being a 2B and being a worse hitter. It'll certainly be interesting to see how Correa's market plays out, but the decision to opt out doesn't seem all that interesting. Either he's hurt and picks up his option since he won't play a whole season next year, or he's opting out. His production absolutely warrants a massive contract, and he'll get it. AAV likely won't be 35.1, but total will be much bigger than 70 mil.

I am not making any point about whether he opts in or out of his contract.  Simply that he is not performing to the expectations of his #2 contract in MLB (of position players).  He has been good, very good, but not stellar. Disappointing, even.  Imo, I doubt this season has done anything, so far and it's late, to enhance his bargaining position should he opt out. I agree that his decision "doesn't seem all that interesting".

[bean5302]

8 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

... "if all he wants is the moist guaranteed" ...

If all he wants is the moist guaranteed, he should be using oil and not butter in his cake recipes. Butter can dry out.

[PopRiveter]

On 8/25/2022 at 6:30 AM, rv78 said:

If I were the Twins I would opt out. He's not worth $35M. The only way I would keep him was on a 4 or 5 year deal at $20-$25M per year, which would be less money per season but more overall. I don't think he'd take that offer. Besides, with Lewis possibly ready to go in 2023 I'd have to wonder if he wouldn't be the better option and use the money elsewhere.

This might be the best argument for him to not opt out.

The only reason to not exercise the opt-out is if CC believes playing in MN at $35 mil (with a short-term contract) is better than whatever else he will be offered. If he truly loves playing here and his goal is to stay, he has to weigh his current contract against what he thinks the Twins will offer him this winter as a free agent. In that case, he might realistically expect the Twins would offer him something like 4 yr/$100m. If I were him in that scenario, I'd probably stick with the 2yr/$70 I already have. But only if I was convinced that I exclusively wish to stay a Twin.

If he's fine with leaving MN, he instead has to weight his current contract against what the field will offer and someone will be willing to go higher in salary and years. This is still the most likely reality for any player who chooses Boras as an agent. I expect his is where he's truly headed until he proves otherwise.

[purplesoldier4u]

On 8/25/2022 at 6:30 AM, rv78 said:

If I were the Twins I would opt out. He's not worth $35M. The only way I would keep him was on a 4 or 5 year deal at $20-$25M per year, which would be less money per season but more overall. I don't think he'd take that offer. Besides, with Lewis possibly ready to go in 2023 I'd have to wonder if he wouldn't be the better option and use the money elsewhere.

At this stage of his career, I wouldn't have any confidence in Royce Lewis' ability to stay healthy. Many people said that about Buxton, during his minor league years, and they were spot on. Besides, Correa is damned close to being an elite defensive shortstop, something Royce may never be,