Carlos Correa: Poking Holes in the Opting-Out Theory Opinion Piece

[Sherry Cerny]

Over the past few weeks, there has been widespread speculation and reporting that shortstop Carlos Correa will be opting out of his three-year deal with the Minnesota Twins after this season, but there are three reasons, specifically three players that could throw a wrench into opting out.

 

The Minnesota Twins shocked the MLB world on March 22, 2022, when they picked up the free agent after the Houston Astros did not pick him back up. 

Correa is undoubtedly one of the best shortstops in the league. His quick reactions to plays and acrobatic moves with put-outs and assists certainly have helped the Twins defensively this season. On the days that Correa isn't on the lineup, Twins fans become irrationally upset. Some, because they have "paid to see the all-star in the lineup" and others because "we paid him to play here" Whatever the reason that fans are clamoring to see Correa in the lineup, it's a positive thing for the club. The fans enjoy having him here, and from what Correa portrays, he also enjoys being here. 

During his initial game back with the Houston Astros on August 23rd, when asked if he would be coming back to the Astros, he didn't say, "we are talking about the post-season", or "I am open to anywhere", or anything else he said, again, He "Can see playing for the Twins for a long time". That doesn't sound like someone who will opt-out.

 

In an article with Joseph Zucker from Bleacher Report, Correa told reporters that he is looking to "I want to build a championship culture in this organization," Correa said, per the Associated Press Jake Seiner. By all accounts, Correa shows, says, and promotes wanting to stay a part of the club in Minnesota. 

Since that statement in early March, Correa suffered initially thought to be a fractured finger after getting hit-by-pitch (twice) on May 6 against the Orioles. He spent a stint on the IL, and later that month, he would also spend time out on the COVID IL. The all-star had a rough month of May, and his return was also heavily catered as he made random appearances in the infield and took turns in the lineup as the designated hitter. 

When he is not in the starting lineup, Correa is in the dugout, doing his best to help lead the team, cheering on other players' home runs and clutch plays. He also spends time sharing his knowledge of the defense and weighs in on front office thoughts regarding the status of players, like Jose Miranda, with whom he has a close bond. The Twins brought him in to be a teacher, to Royce Lewis, who has spent a majority of his time on the IL, shortening his time with Correa and the ability to have that time to learn. His knowledge of the game is excellent, but right now, at least at the plate, his game is not impressive, consistent, but not impressive. 

In May 2022, shortly after the acquisition, Buster Olney stated that not only would Correa leave IF he were to remain healthy and finish in "an impressive fashion". Looking back over Buster's statement, Correa would likely opt out of his contract on two conditions: his health and his production, and both took a hit this season. While his health is undoubtedly resolving, his production is lacking at least at the plate. 

Correa's month of August has been one of the quietest we have seen out of the shortstop, even after coming back from injury and illness earlier in June. His numbers aren't showing how much he is currently struggling at the plate. His valuation is at $30.5 but he isn’t hitting that value right now.  He is hitting .268/.344/.427 for the season, but in the 18 games in August thus far, he's recorded only eight runs, 16 hits, and three RBIs in 62 at-bats. His eight earned runs have come heavily from his 13 walks this month, he gets on base, but rarely from a hit. 

It is August, it's hot, and these are the "Dog Days of Summer." Still, for a player looking to "opt-out," with Onley's statement of "impressive finish," there are other free agents out there making more impressive finishes than who would potentially pick up before Correa. 

Players like Xander Bogaerts, Dansby Swanson, and Trea Turner were in the All-Star game this season and are having remarkable seasons both in numbers in the eye test. All three players' numbers exceed Correa's. Looking at Correa's season and his valuation from Fangraphs ($35.1 million), will he still be worth that to another team at the end of the season? 

There is a fair argument that Xander Bogaerts (.299/.370/.441) has had struggles during the season. His overall season product has him valued at $20 million, according to Fangraphs, and his offensive and defense production shows that he is worth that or possibly more. Bogaerts is undoubtedly putting on a show for the potential of getting more money once the season is over.  

The Braves are already in talks with Swanson after a rough breakup with Freddie Freeman; whether he stays will depend on what the Braves are willing to offer him to stay. Swanson (.292/.397/.453) is tearing up the field offensively and defensively this season and far outplays his $10mil valuation. Another one of the All-Stars this season, he comes second in stolen bases (16) behind Trea Turner, who has 20 for the season. Swanson is responsible for 68 runs batted in and an integral part of the Braves' run towards another potential World Series. The Braves may have an uphill battle with other teams willing to offer more money for Swanson. With signing Michael Harris to an eight-year contract extension worth at least $72 million, they may be willing to part with the shortstop making him one of the most sought after shortstops in the off-season. 

Another shortstop driving up the numbers will be Trea Turner, who has had a hit virtually every time he is at the plate. Rumors of the Dodgers locking him in early will only drive up the market for the other sought-after players. There is a rumor that Dansby may have sparked an organizational 'vision' for the Cubs to bring him on. Dansby doesn't want to sit still as his career rockets, and he considers what the future of the team he is on looks like. "You need to know how the next few years look and how that pertains to your family and your career," he added, "it's definitely a factor in picking a team." 

So with other shortstops being shopped and shopping around as well, while the speculation of Carlos Correa opting out has been spreading like wild fire, if my optics are correct, the market will not be demanding a Correa. They will instead be looking at a Swanson, Bogaerts, or Turner. Correa insists that he loves Minnesota, the culture, the team, and being a leader. He wants to stay and make a winning culture, so if he leaves, how would he provide that winning culture in just one season when he is producing less than the rookies this season? What motivation would another team have to pick him up if he's not producing and he has stated his loyalty to the Twins? 

That's why this writer thinks Carlos Correa will not opt-out. Instead, Scott Boras will fight for more money or a more extended contract with the Twins.

Do you truly believe that Correa will opt out? If Royce Lewis isn't ready, or can't play who do you see coming into the shortstop position? 

 

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[chpettit19]

Barring injury, I don't see any reason whatsoever for Carlos Correa to pick up his player option for 2023. All picking up that option does is guarantee that he has no ability to negotiate with other teams. Why would the Twins be willing to pay what he wants if he opts-in and he can't negotiate with anyone but them? Opting out doesn't automatically mean he signs somewhere else, but it gives him leverage, and the ability to chase far more than $70 million.

Correa, and Boras, are good at playing the PR game, and saying the right thing. But there's no chance he's picking up his option unless he has a catastrophic injury before the end of the season. There has never been a chance he's going to pick up his option unless he suffered a catastrophic injury this season. Those players options were nothing at all except injury insurance for him. And the Twins knew it the day they signed that deal. The FO is not waiting in anticipation of his decision. They know he's opting out. I don't know if he'll get $300 mil this offseason, but he's going to get way more than $70 mil. It'd be nice for him to stay with the Twins, but it won't be on his player options.

[4twinsJA]

When does money become less of the issue compared to winning. Correa is making 35M this year, he could retire after this year and live comfortably the rest of his life. 

I could see Correa picking up option if he thinks he will not make 70M the next 2 years elsewhere and is willing to bet on himself still producing at high level in 2 years and being able to sign significant contract then. Maybe he likes playing for Twins and feels they will be competitive the next 2 years.

I am not putting any worth on what he or anyone else is saying at this time. Correa is smart, not going to come out and say he is opting out at end of year during the season especially since Twins are in divisional race. 

[FlyingFinn]

If Correa liked how the Twins played through July and that would affect his decision at all, I think the way the Twins played in August should have changed those thoughts. The Twins current type of baseball is unwatchable, unlistenable and almost makes me want to watch preseason NFL games.

Who would play SS next year? Palacios would get his chance of a lifetime for 2 or 3 months until Lewis was ready. In his case, I think this would be his only chance to ever lockdown a starting SS position in the majors. Most on TD say he is a good fielder though one person says he is a bad fielding SS.

The Twins fully expect Correa to opt out. Lewis was the plan but that is delayed. I don't see the Twins signing Correa long term as their drafts the past two years were SS heavy and Lee, Miller or someone from that SS group has to be ready in a few years.

[bean5302]

Correa could decline the option and worst case scenario get a 1 year contract for $35MM with a player option for $35MM from a dozen teams in baseball. Correa does not have to sign a long term contract to win by opting out... He just has to sign a contract equal to or better than what he has now. It's inconceivable a team wouldn't give Correa a 1yr + Player option contract (including the Twins).

Basically, there's absolutely nothing for Correa to lose by not exercising his option...

[Rosterman]

It all depends how much monye you really think you need. Yes, that alst contract pretty much keeps you in one palce for the rest of your career. He will easily be able to get 4 or even 5 uears whenever he decides to leave the Twins, with option years.

But will he crack $300m? He had to be mnuch much better in 2022. He has to outdo all expectations in 2023.

[High heat]

He is not going to sign a contract making 35 million a year or more next season. Now He will likely sign a contract for more then the 70 million left on his deal.  

So he could opt in for 2023 and again gamble on himself and have an opportunity again in 2023 Offseason.  But he then gives up any leverage to even negotiate with MN and would almost certainly have to take less AAV per year on an extension. 

If he opts out I would guess he would sign a deal similar to the Trevor Story deal. 

I think the big fear for him is that all the big spending teams have there SS or have a better one in sight, Or spent all the $ they are willing to spend (Yankees resigning Judge) if he ends up he is still holding looking for a deal again this winter with a team he wants to play for.  

I would put me at about a 70/30 still 70 percent chance he opts out but can see where he would opt in and replay it back for 2023.

[CRF]

Talk is very cheap, and he's saying the right things at the moment, but I do think he'll opt out. That doesn't necessarily mean he's gone. I think he really does like it here, and it's very clear he's the leader on this team. All the younger guys look up to him and I believe the vets do too. Even guys like Buxton, Polanco, and Kepler. I think CC enjoys that leadership role. I'd love to have him as the SS for the next several years. He hasn't produced offensively as much as we'd hoped, but he doesn't have the team around him like he did in Houston either. That being said, he's far from an automatic out like a few of the guys we currently have in the lineup. Defensively, he's superb. Probably the best SS we've ever had here. I hope that he ends up staying. 

[LA VIkes Fan]

To echo what others have said, this is a no-brainer from a business standpoint. Of course he will opt out. The only risk he takes by opting out is that no team, including the Twins, will give him a one-year deal for $35.1 million. There is a small amount of risk but not very much risk given the market for shortstops. I think that the very least he could re-sign a similar deal with the Twins and probably with five or six other teams. There is no rational business reason for him to do anything other than not exercise his player option unless he suffers a really significant injury.

The real question is does he want to stay with the Twins long-term. If he does or is at least open to the possibility, this is the off-season for him to try to sign the contract of five years or longer. That's really what we should be talking about, should the Twins give him a 6-8 year deal at $30+ million? I vote yes! I know we have Royce Lewis coming up but there's no reason he couldn't play 3B or LF. I do recognize and appreciate the argument that the same money could and should be used to sign a true #1 starting pitcher. I hear that but the risk is very high in those long-term pitching deals and the Twins have not shown the willingness or the ability to sign those kind of free agent pitchers. I also question whether a true, established #1 starter would come to Minnesota when we just got rid of our highest paid player. Also, I think bringing on Mahle and Gray this year, both of whom I think the Twins can and should re–sign or less than the total of $40 million per year between the two of them, put us in a decent spot with starting pitching when you add in Ryan, Maeda, Ober, and Paddack. Yes, this year is an example of what can happen with injuries to pitchers but that's a risk I'm willing to take.

I also think re-signing Correa long-term sends exactly the signal to the market that we want to send. It tells other free agents that were willing to spend for quality, and that we are committed to a long-term winning culture. That gives us a much better shot at getting some free agents, particularly the second tier good but not great players that you need to be a backbone for your team. If I were in charge of the Twins, I would put a competitive 6 or 7 year offer on the table north of $30 million in AAV and see if he can be re-signed. 
 

[RpR]

Correa will do what he wants,, period; all the throwing of the bones prediction is a waste of time.

[Blyleven2011]

27 minutes ago, RpR said:

Correa will do what he wants,, period; all the throwing of the bones prediction is a waste of time.

I DITTO this 

[Seth Stohs]

Well written. 

Good research. 

He's opting out. 

[HokieRif]

If he stays, fine - but he better start playing like he's worth the money he's being paid.  If he opts out - we still have a full compliment of a starting IF assuming Lewis is healthy (Miranda, Lewis, Polanco, Arraez).  The money freed-up by a Correa departure gives the front office more to play with to overhaul the outfield, the entire pitching staff, and getting a DH that's worthy of the title.

[Vanimal46]

13 minutes ago, Seth Stohs said:

Well written. 

Good research. 

He's opting out. 

What inside info do you know that we don’t to say it so definitively?

[RickOShea]

Correia's decision to stay or opt out is going to be on someone's shoulder, not his.  If he stays, he'll look like a great guy, solely looking to build a championship for Twins fans.  If he opts out, it will probably, make him look like a great family man, doing what's best for his family in the long run.  The Twins will never will a bidding war for correia's services for a long period of time.

So, he can just sit back, do his thing, and collect his dough.  About the only thing he has to worry about,  is getting hurt.

[purplesoldier4u]

He may opt out of his current contract, but can the team afford to let him leave? I believe the team will present a decent five-year offer in his direction and he may consider it. It seems like he enjoys his teammates, and the team seems to like was he has presented on and off the field.

He was one of the reasons I've been to a couple dozen games this season. If they let him leave and choose not to spend any money for 2023, I'll be back to a small number of games, and I believe many other fans will feel the same.

Fortunately for the Twins, the division isn't particularly good, and the White Sox have been plagued by injuries and questionable managerial in-game decisions. Unfortunately, the Guardians have played very solid Tom Kelly-esque ball, but how long they can maintain it, who knows?

The division is there for the taking and it's time for the Twins to begin playing like they want it, playoff success be damned.

[bean5302]

2 hours ago, Vanimal46 said:

What inside info do you know that we don’t to say it so definitively?

You don't need inside information to recognize the extreme risk for no reward Correa gets for exercising his player option.

[Vanimal46]

1 hour ago, bean5302 said:

You don't need inside information to recognize the extreme risk for no reward Correa gets for exercising his player option.

Other teams will be insane to pay him more than $35 million AAV after the season he is having here. If all he wants is the most guaranteed money possible, good luck to him. 

[bean5302]

3 hours ago, Vanimal46 said:

Other teams will be insane to pay him more than $35 million AAV after the season he is having here. If all he wants is the most guaranteed money possible, good luck to him. 

Correa does not need $300MM to win. Or $200MM for that matter. He doesn't need $35MM AAV.

All he needs to do is beat 2 years and $70MM with an AAV in the $25MM+ range and he wins. Correa takes 5-6 years $150-175MM long, long, LONG before he he'd take another $35MM 1 year contract with a 1 year player option. He'll get that. Story and Baez got 6yrs $140MM and they were a much lower ranked target than Correa. Again, in the absolute worst case scenario, Correa signs another contract to the exact terms the Twins accepted and Correa gets another year guaranteed. There is just no world in which Correa doesn't do as well or better than his contract with the Twins today.

The narrative Correa has only 2 options: opt in or opt out and desperately seek an unlikely long term deal at $35MM AAV+ is ludicrous.

 

[Major League Ready]

8 hours ago, Vanimal46 said:

Other teams will be insane to pay him more than $35 million AAV after the season he is having here. If all he wants is the most guaranteed money possible, good luck to him. 

How often do we hear team X was willing to give one more year than team Y.  The deal with team X is virtually always a little less AAV.  The vast majority of players go to the team that provides the most guaranteed money.  We know this very clearly from history so positioning "if all he wants is the moist guaranteed" as anything but the norm makes no sense.

[rv78]

If I were the Twins I would opt out. He's not worth $35M. The only way I would keep him was on a 4 or 5 year deal at $20-$25M per year, which would be less money per season but more overall. I don't think he'd take that offer. Besides, with Lewis possibly ready to go in 2023 I'd have to wonder if he wouldn't be the better option and use the money elsewhere.

[tfbw]

20 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

Barring injury, I don't see any reason whatsoever for Carlos Correa to pick up his player option for 2023. All picking up that option does is guarantee that he has no ability to negotiate with other teams. Why would the Twins be willing to pay what he wants if he opts-in and he can't negotiate with anyone but them? Opting out doesn't automatically mean he signs somewhere else, but it gives him leverage, and the ability to chase far more than $70 million.

Correa, and Boras, are good at playing the PR game, and saying the right thing. But there's no chance he's picking up his option unless he has a catastrophic injury before the end of the season. There has never been a chance he's going to pick up his option unless he suffered a catastrophic injury this season. Those players options were nothing at all except injury insurance for him. And the Twins knew it the day they signed that deal. The FO is not waiting in anticipation of his decision. They know he's opting out. I don't know if he'll get $300 mil this offseason, but he's going to get way more than $70 mil. It'd be nice for him to stay with the Twins, but it won't be on his player options.

The other "insurance" his current contract provides is against "substandard production".  His year, offensively, has not been impressive.  Certainly not at the elite level his salary would demand.  Interesting to see how this plays out in the off season.

[terrydactyls]

Question:

Several posters have said that if Correa opts in, he gives up all leverage to negotiate with the Twins.  Is that accurate?  Even if he signs up for year two, can't the two parties still negotiate a long-term deal?

[chpettit19]

1 hour ago, tfbw said:

The other "insurance" his current contract provides is against "substandard production".  His year, offensively, has not been impressive.  Certainly not at the elite level his salary would demand.  Interesting to see how this plays out in the off season.

Correa has a 125 OPS+ this year. He was at 131 last year. 127 is his career OPS+. wRC+ numbers are 124 this year, 133 last year, and 127 for his career. Corey Seager's career wRC+ is 131, and he's significantly worse defensively, and he got 10/325 last year. I'm just not seeing these arguments that his value has tanked. Maybe he doesn't get 10/325, but he's going to get significantly more than the 2/70 he has in his back pocket right now. He has no financial reason to opt-in unless he gets hurt. This isn't "substandard production."

[chpettit19]

42 minutes ago, terrydactyls said:

Question:

Several posters have said that if Correa opts in, he gives up all leverage to negotiate with the Twins.  Is that accurate?  Even if he signs up for year two, can't the two parties still negotiate a long-term deal?

They can still negotiate a long-term deal, but Correa and Boras can't say "hey, we have 7/220 from Team X so you guys need to beat that." He gives up any chance to create a bidding war by picking up his option. Why would Correa and Boras want to do that? Correa didn't fire his agent last year and sign up with Boras just to try to negotiate from that position. Correa signed up with Boras to let Boras do his thing, and that's find him the best deal he can.

[Whitey333]

Of course Correa opts out.  I think we've figured that out since the day he signed that contract.  Of course Correa at least says he loves it in Minnesota. People treat him like a king.  There is not nearly the pressure to perform here as in major market cities.  He's got it made in that regard.  I think he will opt out.  If he leaves for another team so be it.  I think his season has shown that he is over rated and definitely overpaid for what he is producing.

[Karbo]

I don't know what date is set for his decision, but I would think Boras will be entertaining offers as soon as the season is over. If I was the GM I would offer a 5 or 6 year extension at about 32-35 mil AAV. I feel he has been worth every penny he makes with the Twins. He is excellent at playing a premium position defensively, has a history of being a good hitter, Has been a positive in the clubhouse from all reports, and has the swagger the Twins need. Next year they already have a pretty strong rotation shaping up with Mahle, Gray, Ryan, Paddack, and possibly Winder or maybe Varland. The pieces they brought in at the deadline are under control for next years bullpen, other than Fulmer. They have had so many injuries this year I have to believe the tide will turn next year. Lewis is still an unknown. He may turn out to be great, but he may not.

[Major League Ready]

Boras negotiated those options for two reasons.  One, if Correa gets injured this season and that injury would keep him out next year or a significant portion of the year (like Lewis), he would gets paid max AAV and all the time he needs to come back and prove he is ready for the next big contract.  Two, if he had a terrible season, he could opt in and hope to prove he can have a much better 2023 setting him up for a bigger pay day.  Those options are of zero benefit to the Twins.  They were a smart add by Boras to provide insurance to Correa in taking what is essentially a 1 year deal.

[tfbw]

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

Correa has a 125 OPS+ this year. He was at 131 last year. 127 is his career OPS+. wRC+ numbers are 124 this year, 133 last year, and 127 for his career. Corey Seager's career wRC+ is 131, and he's significantly worse defensively, and he got 10/325 last year. I'm just not seeing these arguments that his value has tanked. Maybe he doesn't get 10/325, but he's going to get significantly more than the 2/70 he has in his back pocket right now. He has no financial reason to opt-in unless he gets hurt. This isn't "substandard production."

Correa is fourth highest paid player in MLB this year. Top two are pitchers, then, at #3 is Mike Trout.  My point is simply that he is not performing at the elite level his salary demands. He isn't even tops on the team in any major offensive stat.  He plays very good defense.

[chpettit19]

3 minutes ago, tfbw said:

Correa is fourth highest paid player in MLB this year. Top two are pitchers, then, at #3 is Mike Trout.  My point is simply that he is not performing at the elite level his salary demands. He isn't even tops on the team in any major offensive stat.  He plays very good defense.

Your point seemed to be that he may consider picking up his player option because he's having a "substandard production" season, and thus wouldn't be able to get a big contract on the market. If I misunderstood what was meant by "the other "insurance" his current contract provides is against "substandard production" I apologize.

But he won't be chasing AAV this offseason, he'll be chasing total guaranteed money. I provided some statistical examples of why he has every reason to believe he's going to be able to blow 2 years and 70 mil out of the water. Marcus Simien was entering his age 31 season when he got 175 mil last offseason. He'd only topped 100 in OPS+ twice in his entire career, and is only at 102 this season. He got 100 million more than Correa currently has locked up despite now being a 2B and being a worse hitter. It'll certainly be interesting to see how Correa's market plays out, but the decision to opt out doesn't seem all that interesting. Either he's hurt and picks up his option since he won't play a whole season next year, or he's opting out. His production absolutely warrants a massive contract, and he'll get it. AAV likely won't be 35.1, but total will be much bigger than 70 mil.