Twins 1, Rangers 2: Triple Play Turned, Buxton Exits in Loss

[HokieRif]

I'm still very likely to tune in, but we've seen enough of a sample size to know what this team is.  Cleveland is going to do little/just enough to keep this interesting, but I'm not even hopeful for a wild card spot at this point.

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, mikelink45 said:

Beckham and Cave were miserable call ups for the team

And yet, they were clearly outperforming the other options in AAA. People should remember that when they say "fire player XX and call someone up from the minors"

[Trov]

My biggest complaint is that the team is 100% flipped to analytics.  I hated when prior FO and managers were so anti analytics, but now they are 100% all in on analytics.  That being they do not work on situational hitting as much.  We do not do the little things that help score runs, but care more about getting the extra base hits.  The problem is when the extra base hits are not coming, for whatever reason, we are not getting runs across the plate in situations. 

This is not just a this year problem, and hope we really address it in the future.  I am a fan of using analytics, but the problem with always doing analytic thinking is that the numbers from analytics are derived over a lifetime of situations of past results.  For example,  the lifetime of runners on 2 with 0 out you will score more than 1 run 30% of the time, but with runner on third and 1 out you score more than 1 run less than 20%.  The difference in scoring just 1 run increases about 12% when runner gets moved over to 3rd with 1 out, however, the chance of scoring 0 runs remains about the same. 

So the argument is, especially early in game, is to not move the runner over because your chance of scoring 0 runs is about the same, your chance of scoring more than 1 run is decreased.  The counter is that your chance of scoring 1 run is increased.  However, many analytic thinkers say just scoring 1 run does not move the win probability that much, even more so early in games, so teams will not play for that 1 run early in games.  

That is why teams stopped bunting runners over, but even worse, is teams stopped working on hitting behind runners in hopes of moving over at minimum but getting hits still.  LH hitters will do it naturally with a pull on the ground, but RH almost never do anymore.  Because they never practice it.  In addition, when a runner is on 3rd we hardly work on just making sure we put ball in play, but still looking to get the extra base hit.  

Now, I know it is easier to say than do, but I do not even see anyone try anymore, and that is most likely based on team concepts.  The thought is to sacrifice single run innings to have multi run innings, because we do not expect to have as many run scoring chances.  I am not saying we should always play for single run innings, but advancing guys to third, then looking to get extra base hit, but at least getting ball in play will help us win many more games than trying to always drive the run in from second.  

[terrydactyls]

51 minutes ago, umterp23 said:

Jeffers playing with a broken bone in hand for almost 2 weeks is gritty and hell he was playing well during that stretch tells me more about the catcher position the Sanchez's mouth of they traded for me to be the guy.

Beckham and Cave, nice story but not MiLB material only. 

A few days ago, I asked that posters take a few extra seconds to review what they wrote to be sure that what they are about to post is readable, understandable, and what they are intending to say.  Above are two examples from a single post which I just read.  The first example ends with a phrase that is totally incomprehensible (something about Sanchez's mouth??).  The second example actually supports the fact that the two players mentioned are in the majors (and I am pretty sure that the opposite was intended).  This is NOT a comment about umterp23.  He just happened to have two good examples for me to use.  There are plenty of others.

And, yes I did review my entry.

[puckstopper1]

Tim Beckham and Jake Cave are two of only a few players that have me desiring for Sano to be back in the lineup… ?

[Nate Palmer]

10 hours ago, Chachi said:

How does Miranda end up with A top and bottom WPA?

Editing error. Sorry. It is fixed now. 

[terrydactyls]

21 minutes ago, Trov said:

My biggest complaint is that the team is 100% flipped to analytics.  I hated when prior FO and managers were so anti analytics, but now they are 100% all in on analytics.  That being they do not work on situational hitting as much.  We do not do the little things that help score runs, but care more about getting the extra base hits.  The problem is when the extra base hits are not coming, for whatever reason, we are not getting runs across the plate in situations. 

This is not just a this year problem, and hope we really address it in the future.  I am a fan of using analytics, but the problem with always doing analytic thinking is that the numbers from analytics are derived over a lifetime of situations of past results.  For example,  the lifetime of runners on 2 with 0 out you will score more than 1 run 30% of the time, but with runner on third and 1 out you score more than 1 run less than 20%.  The difference in scoring just 1 run increases about 12% when runner gets moved over to 3rd with 1 out, however, the chance of scoring 0 runs remains about the same. 

So the argument is, especially early in game, is to not move the runner over because your chance of scoring 0 runs is about the same, your chance of scoring more than 1 run is decreased.  The counter is that your chance of scoring 1 run is increased.  However, many analytic thinkers say just scoring 1 run does not move the win probability that much, even more so early in games, so teams will not play for that 1 run early in games.  

That is why teams stopped bunting runners over, but even worse, is teams stopped working on hitting behind runners in hopes of moving over at minimum but getting hits still.  LH hitters will do it naturally with a pull on the ground, but RH almost never do anymore.  Because they never practice it.  In addition, when a runner is on 3rd we hardly work on just making sure we put ball in play, but still looking to get the extra base hit.  

Now, I know it is easier to say than do, but I do not even see anyone try anymore, and that is most likely based on team concepts.  The thought is to sacrifice single run innings to have multi run innings, because we do not expect to have as many run scoring chances.  I am not saying we should always play for single run innings, but advancing guys to third, then looking to get extra base hit, but at least getting ball in play will help us win many more games than trying to always drive the run in from second.  

I concur.  My belief is that what you describe is the result of the three true outcome of hitting nonsense that is so popular.  Swing as hard as you are physically able at approximately a 20 degree launch angle (or whatever the magic number is) and hope for a positive result.  And that is why the Twins have a player with 28 home runs and only 55 RBIs.  In comparison, the Twins have a rookie who has played 10% fewer games and has only two less RBIs.  I would rather have a team of players like the latter than players like the former.  And, of course, there are infinite examples (slight exaggeration) of "grounded out into the shift." A bunt would result in a single and a hard bunt that rolled into the outfield might even get you a double.  Three outcome baseball is stupid baseball.

[Blyleven2011]

The triple play was exciting  ,

The Pitching was solid for  ...

The situational hitting  wasn't good  ...

Buxtons injuries aren't good...

That's how realistic positive I can, be  ...

[teachercoach]

Questions: If Correa finishes this season as it is currently going, will other teams still offer the long term mega-deal?  Or will the Twins be stuck with paying $35M for this type of performance?

[PDX Twin]

17 minutes ago, teachercoach said:

Questions: If Correa finishes this season as it is currently going, will other teams still offer the long term mega-deal?  Or will the Twins be stuck with paying $35M for this type of performance?

I'm guessing #2.

[garn from vancouver]

when i a great player not a great player? when they're hurt or having their work load lessened to save them for the playoffs. or in carlos' case when they just don't live up to the huge off season signing - it happens. a lot. so next season does carlos re-sign? does anyone care if he does? does buxton move into a purely DH role? if so he's going to need to get back on the bat. do the twins figure out that getting cast-offs from other teams doesn't work? do players such as cave and beckham get released? when all the pitchers are healthy at the beginning of next season who do they trade away? do i eat a chopped meat sandwich or sausage dog when i see the twins play the white sox in chicago? do i go to the Loyalist for a burger? so many questions....

[DJL44]

42 minutes ago, teachercoach said:

Questions: If Correa finishes this season as it is currently going, will other teams still offer the long term mega-deal?  Or will the Twins be stuck with paying $35M for this type of performance?

If Correa finishes the season with the same production he has had all year he'll finish with 4.5 WAR. $35M is the going rate for that kind of production.

[Trov]

1 hour ago, teachercoach said:

Questions: If Correa finishes this season as it is currently going, will other teams still offer the long term mega-deal?  Or will the Twins be stuck with paying $35M for this type of performance?

I find it highly unlikely he opts in.  He will try to cash in again this offseason on a more normal offseason.  Dodgers and Red Sox and possibly Yankees will be looking to spend on a SS.  Nationals may as well, they have been known to throw money out there.  

It may be a little risk of him, but I would assume his plan all along was to opt out barring injury. 

[insagt1]

Read today someone wrote (maybe the beat writer) something to the effect that Buxton has all together managed to not be on the IL for first time since 2016. That is totally not true correct? He goes on the list every year, correct? He pretty much lives there, sadly. Every year, it never gets better for the guy. His body just does not allow him to be what he wants to be.

Having said that, as have others--Buxton is not having a good season. His situational hitting, along with most his teammates, has been pretty sad, and as a result, the team is floundering. It isn't one player not getting it done. Its pretty much all of them from game to game, when it counts most. Even Arraez has come up short since the all star game when it comes to those necessary key hits the Twins aren't getting.

Wish things were better, as we all wish. Let's hope they don't really fall apart completely vs Houston.

[prouster]

3 hours ago, Whitey333 said:

 Of his 28 Homer's 17 are solo.

Are you suggesting that he is to blame for this and not the people batting in front of him? What better outcome is there when no one is on base?

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

5 minutes ago, Trov said:

I find it highly unlikely he opts in.  He will try to cash in again this offseason on a more normal offseason.  Dodgers and Red Sox and possibly Yankees will be looking to spend on a SS.  Nationals may as well, they have been known to throw money out there.  

It may be a little risk of him, but I would assume his plan all along was to opt out barring injury. 

I think Correa’s plan was to opt out, but I wouldn’t bet on it at this moment. Turner and Bogaerts may want to stay put in LA and Boston, and the Yankees might throw all their money at retaining Judge. A new Correa deal would look paltry in comparison to Judge’s. The shortstop carousel that was expected this upcoming offseason may not materialize— yet to be seen. 

[jmlease1]

Despite the offense struggling, it was still a lovely night to be at Target Field for a baseball game. 

Injuries have definitely sapped this team's ability to create runs. Miranda had a tough night, but I'm not going to bag on the rookie too much; he's had a heck of a season to date and will be a quality hitter for this team. There's also some weird stuff going on: Polanco used to be a solid RH hitter against lefties, Sanchez used to be a solid RH hitter against lefties and this season both of them are trash against lefties. Garlick & Jeffers are both injured (and historically hit lefties well). Frankly, we got a lot of guys that were expected to be contributors on the IL right now. 

Kepler is really disappointing, but I'm guessing that broken toe isn't healed and that sapping any power production. but he's also back to being helpless against lefties (unsurprisingly) and isn't making hard contact when he pulls it. If he can't make hard contact to the pull side and won't go the other way when shifted, he's just not much of an offensive player. 

The triple play was super fun to see live. Miranda definitely got a little excited over the possibility and overclocked his throw to second, but it was a heck of a play. He's not super comfortable at 1B, but did a good job recovering from not fielding a ball cleanly to still get the out. There was also a communications mix up where he was going for the ball and thought the pitcher was covering and the pitcher wasn't sure if he was supposed to play the ball or the bag, but that's not terrible.

[RpR]

2 hours ago, teachercoach said:

Questions: If Correa finishes this season as it is currently going, will other teams still offer the long term mega-deal?  Or will the Twins be stuck with paying $35M for this type of performance?

No one here is God, no one knows what he will do, or what is in his mind (except maybe he likes Miranda) I think if he and the rest of the infield played as was common, till some dork decided math was better tool than watching with ones eyes, that starting a  team is a starting team, 98.6 percent of the time.

Not knowing who will be recieving your throw or throwing you the ball brings uncertainty, uncertainty brings less than optimum performance. (Twins had a Triple Play yesterday and only fate, Correa is a TALL Dude,  stopped the throw to second from going into Center Field.

[ashbury]

3 hours ago, Whitey333 said:

Of his 28 Homer's 17 are solo. 

 

49 minutes ago, prouster said:

Are you suggesting that he is to blame for this and not the people batting in front of him? What better outcome is there when no one is on base?

Not to mention, the majors as a whole exhibit this same pattern.  In 2022 across the majors, there have been 2213 solo HR, out of 3904 total HR, for 57%.  Buxton's at 61%, right in that same neighborhood.

What's more, as Prouster suggests, it's a matter of opportunity.  Again, league wide this season, 57% of plate appearances are with the bases empty, tying in directly to that HR rate.  228 of Buxton's 382 PA this year are with the bases empty, for 60%, real close to his HR figure.

As a whole, the Twins' bases-empty percentage of PA is only 56%, which reflects a better than average team OBP.  Since Buxton bats leadoff a lot this year, and his first time up is guaranteed to be bases-empty, that's probably the reason for the difference.

Nothing to see here, folks.

[Battle ur tail off]

2 hours ago, teachercoach said:

Questions: If Correa finishes this season as it is currently going, will other teams still offer the long term mega-deal?  Or will the Twins be stuck with paying $35M for this type of performance?

My guess, unless he gets hot, he comes back. He isn't a player worth giving 2-300 million dollars to. Great player, but I don't see him getting more than 4-5 year deal at best from anyone. Maybe that is all it would take for him to sign on the dotted line and he does opt out and sign with someone for that.

Honestly, he and Buxton being terrible at the plate for the last couple months is the #2 reason, behind the bullpen IMO, for their poor play and drop in the standings. Flat out your top 1-3 type hitters have to produce better than these 2 have lately. 

That said, I would LOVE to have him back next year and will welcome him with open arms should he decide to stay. I love his SS play and I think he is a better hitter than he has shown overall this season. 

 

 

[ashbury]

14 hours ago, BH67 said:

Tim Beckham, designated hitter.

Members of the jury, have you reached a verdict?

If he has to play, then I'm all for it.  It's by far his best defensive position.

[Shaitan]

The look on Lowe's face is priceless.

[Shaitan]

1 hour ago, Battle ur tail off said:

Honestly, he and Buxton being terrible at the plate for the last couple months is the #2 reason, behind the bullpen IMO, for their poor play and drop in the standings. Flat out your top 1-3 type hitters have to produce better than these 2 have lately. 

 

 

Half of this game recap is about the two of them standing on base and nobody else driving them in.

It's a team game. And it takes a team to lose too.

(Yes, both could be playing better.)

[SwainZag]

To show how bad that ump was night:

He was equally bad for both sides, but 66% called strike accuracy is just beyond awful

 

 

[adorduan]

6 hours ago, wabene said:

You can care about the team without being miserable and complaining constantly (not directed at you personally). Someone above stated the team will be below 500 by Sept 1. They have been saying that for 2 months.  Eventually they may be right, but what a sad journey. 

Some of us are realists.....

[adorduan]

4 hours ago, terrydactyls said:

I concur.  My belief is that what you describe is the result of the three true outcome of hitting nonsense that is so popular.  Swing as hard as you are physically able at approximately a 20 degree launch angle (or whatever the magic number is) and hope for a positive result.  And that is why the Twins have a player with 28 home runs and only 55 RBIs.  In comparison, the Twins have a rookie who has played 10% fewer games and has only two less RBIs.  I would rather have a team of players like the latter than players like the former.  And, of course, there are infinite examples (slight exaggeration) of "grounded out into the shift." A bunt would result in a single and a hard bunt that rolled into the outfield might even get you a double.  Three outcome baseball is stupid baseball.

Worse yet is it's boring baseball....

[h2oface]

"There's no explanation needed [for the struggles],” shortstop Carlos Correa said. “It's just poor baseball play by us. It's as simple as that. We're a lot better than that. We didn't execute. We didn't do our job, and that's that. There's no explanation for how poorly we played.”

PROVE IT!