Can Simeon Woods Richardson Be Better Than Jose Berrios?

[Cody Christie]

The Twins recently promoted Simeon Woods Richardson to Triple-A, where he is one step away from making his big-league debut. Can he become better than Jose Berrios?

When the Twins traded Jose Berrios, Austin Martin was considered the top prospect in the return package. Over a year later, Martin's prospect stock has dropped, and Simeon Woods Richardson is having a breakout year. Woods Richardson will forever be connected to Berrios and the trade that brought him to the Twins organization. So, does he have the potential to be better than Berrios when all is said and done?

The Twins drafted Berrios as a teenager out of Puerto Rico, and he immediately put himself on the map as one of baseball's best pitching prospects. He was a consensus top-50 prospect for two consecutive offseasons while being selected to back-to-back Futures Games. In six minor league seasons, he posted a 2.77 ERA with a 1.08 WHIP and 9.6 K/9. He struggled during his big-league debut in 2016 but quickly became one of baseball's most reliable pitchers. From 2017-2021, he averaged 159 innings per season with a 3.74 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP. 

Woods Richardson's path to the big leagues has seen more ups and downs than Berrios. The Mets drafted Woods Richardson in the 2nd round of the 2018 MLB Draft. His professional debut was strong as he posted a 1.56 ERA and 13.5 K/9 in seven rookie league appearances. As an 18-year-old, he struggled at Low-A with a 4.25 ERA while being nearly four years younger than the average age of the competition at his level. The Mets traded him to the Blue Jays organization as part of the Marcus Stroman trade, but things got more challenging for him from there. 

With no minor league season in 2020, Woods Richardson's age-19 season was wiped out. He likely would have spent most of the season at High-A, where he had finished the 2019 season. The 2021 season also saw some hiccups for him as the Blue Jays were aggressive with him and sent him to Double-A. As a 20-year-old, he was over 4.5 years younger than the average age of the competition at his level. He never found consistency at Double-A, he went to Japan to be part of the US Olympic team, and then he was traded to the Twins. Overall, his prospect stock dropped as none of the national outlets included him in their top-100 prospects for the first time in two years. 

Woods Richardson has been able to put a lot of doubts behind him in 2022. Minnesota had him repeat Double-A, where he is still very young for the level. In 16 appearances, he posted a 3.18 ERA with a 1.16 WHIP and 9.8 K/9. His prospect stock has risen to the point where he is considered the Twins' best pitching prospect in the upper minors. Minnesota recently promoted him to Triple-A, where he will look to cap off his tremendous age-21 season. 

Like Woods Richardson, Berrios spent his age-21 season pitching at Double- and Triple-A. Some signs point to Woods Richardson having a leg-up on Berrios at this point in their development. Woods Richardson has posted an 11.1 K/9 while Berrios had a 9.6 K/9 in six minor league seasons. Berrios also allowed more H/9 and a similar amount of HR/9. Stylistically, there are differences between these two pitchers, but there is potential for Woods Richardson to fit nicely into the team's rotation for years to come. 

Berrios is the best pitcher to come through the Twins system in quite some time. Woods Richardson has the potential to be a similar pitcher to Berrios, but there can be challenges with the transition to Triple-A and the big leagues. Woods Richardson isn't expected to be the next Berrios, but Twins fans should be more than pleased if he reaches his potential ceiling. 

How high is Wood Richardson's ceiling? Can he be better than Berrios? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. 

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[Trov]

Of course he can be better.  I also think he will be better.  I always like Berrios, but he never got over that hump and he was the default ace for us despite being an ace.  He was always good, and in some games great.  However, he has had poor starts, or in many cases just one poor inning that blows up quickly.  Many times too quick to get a pitcher ready to come in and it gets out of hand quickly.  This was not just for the Twins but has been even worse for the Jays this year.  

I want to be clear I am not Jose bashing, because he was very good for us, and above average pitcher.  He just never became that dominate ace type that we knew every time out was a good chance to win.  He normally was either great for the game or terrible, rarely in between, and as stated sometimes would turn very quickly. 

Only time will tell if SWR will be better than Berrios, and I guess more of the question is are you asking during the length of Berrios contract with Jays, or overall career?  If we are talking over length of time of contract, so far SWR will not even need to pitch to have a higher WAR.  If we are talking over full career he will only need a couple of great seasons to top the 10 WAR that Berrios is near. 

I feel fans thought more of Berrios than what he truly was. 

[RJA]

Interesting article, Cody.  I think SWR has the potential to be as good as Berrios if not better, but until he gets to Target Field and produces for a couple of years, it is a difficult comparison to make.  I think SWR has great stuff, but the key for him will be limiting walks, improving command, and being consistent.  One of the great things about baseball is you can watch players develop in the minors, discuss them, rate them, and dream on them.  Such is the case with SWR.  It makes being a baseball fan loads of fun.  

[roger]

Can he be better, you betcha.  Will he, that's another question.

And unfortunately, looking at what Jose is doing this year he doesn't have to be fantastic to be better.  Did the move to Toronto and away from the team he grew up with have such an effect on Berrios that he isn't the pitcher he was here?

[Sean.h]

is the ceiling higher than Berrios's ceiling? Maybe but probably not.

is the ceiling higher than Berrios's performance? Definitely yes

is he likely to exceed Berrios's performance? Unlikely, though it would be nice.

[Dman]

I started high on SWR but I am becoming the low man on him recently.  I guess my biggest concern is that his arm seems to wear down after a month or so and I am not confident he can remain a starter.  While I have seen him pitch efficiently as a pitch to contact pitcher and he has also had some very good K rate games just like Berrios there always seems to be a big inning given up at some point.  So I guess I still have my doubts.

Having said all that he is very young for the level and as he gains more experience and hopefully more consistency I think he has the potential to be as good or better than Berrios but he will have to be better than he currently is to get there IMO.

[Otaknam]

let’s hope he becomes as good as the good Berrios. The maddening thing about Berrios is his inconsistency: good game, then dominant game, then a stinker, good game, below average game, dominant game, stinker. Rinse, repeat as the Jays are finding out. He’s  a number three starter at his best. Is that worth $131 million over 7 years? 

[TWTwinsFan]

his fastball touches....88mph in AAA debut

well...I dont think so

[Doctor Gast]

I really liked Berrios work ethic, desire to be great, stamina & staying healthy. I really like SWR's attitude and his potential, his stamina hasn't arrived to Berrios level but he's still developing. I've been higher on SWR than any Twin for a very long time. But pitching prospects can change very quickly and not able to make that jump to MLB but I have high hope in SWR.

[High heat]

17 minutes ago, Otaknam said:

let’s hope he becomes as good as the good Berrios. The maddening thing about Berrios is his inconsistency: good game, then dominant game, then a stinker, good game, below average game, dominant game, stinker. Rinse, repeat as the Jays are finding out. He’s  a number three starter at his best. Is that worth $131 million over 7 years? 

I think it all depends on your definition of “better” the one thing consistent with Berrios was that he was taking the ball every 5th day and 32 starts a yr.  That in itself has a ton of value!  SWR does not seem to be that,

Now what Berrios you got every 5th day was a mistery.  Some days that fast ball was moving all over the place and he was putting it outside corner and running it in hitters hands and that curve had sharp late action. Other starts the breaking ball was a big arc and hitter saw it coming and hammered it when it was in the zone and laid off it out.  The fastball had velocity but was straight or all over the place. 
 

SWR seems to not have the stuff that Berrios had but he does seem to know how to pitch mixes 4 pitches well and moves them around the zone.  He struggles when his control isn’t there.  We will have to see if he can refine that control and if that mix translates to the next level.

[MABB1959]

SWR is not here and has proved nothing.  It has been over a year and we have nothing to show for the Berrios trade!

Berrios has had some clunkers and gems.  He does give his team a good 7 innings for the most part.  He has given the Blue Jays 128 innings. Twins closest player is Joe Ryan at 107 and Dylan Bundy at 103.  The rest are all under 100.

The Blue Jays believe in him and he has acknowledged his clunkers each time and works really hard to improve.

[TwinsDr2021]

Can he better? Sure anything is possible the odds say no, but Berrios only has 10.6 WAR though age 28 so it isn't like he needs to do a ton in the next 6 years to get there.

But he only has 251 minor innings in 4 seasons. Berrios pitched 103.2, 140, 166.1 he three full years in the minors, and fourth year he pitched 169.2innings (111.1 in AAA and 58.1 with the Twins)

To me the big difference is going to be SWR will more likely than not be asked to do what Berrios has been asked to do and that is be a tradition starter, He basically has never been asked to pitch much more than 4 innings a game.

I am hoping he becomes good/great but with any twins pitching prospect his ceiling seems to be Joe Ryan.

[nicksaviking]

Can he be better than 2022 Berrios? Pretty low bar.

Whether his decline was due to a change of scenery or if his stuff was just bound to tail off, looks like the Twins sold him at the right time. Imagine the consternation around here had he been carrying a 5.00+ ERA all summer. The fans would be yelling to pull him from the rotation, though he likely would stay there, and we'd all be watching the likelihood of a QO compensation fade away.

[Trov]

2 hours ago, MABB1959 said:

SWR is not here and has proved nothing.  It has been over a year and we have nothing to show for the Berrios trade!

Berrios has had some clunkers and gems.  He does give his team a good 7 innings for the most part.  He has given the Blue Jays 128 innings. Twins closest player is Joe Ryan at 107 and Dylan Bundy at 103.  The rest are all under 100.

The Blue Jays believe in him and he has acknowledged his clunkers each time and works really hard to improve.

Berrios has average 5.375 innings per start.  I would argue he does not give his team 7 good innings for the most part, being he does not average even 6.  He also has a negative WAR this year, meaning in general any replacement level guy would have been better. 

You use Ryan as a comparison, who also average 5.35 innings, so nearly the same average, just had 4 less games in part due to COVID.  He has been good for a 1 WAR so far this year.  So he may only give the team 5 to 6 innings even when he is going good, not his call to come out of games, but his innings overall have been of better quality. 

Berrios when good has given 7 plus innings 6 times, or 25% of his starts.  He has pitched 6 or 6 and partial in 6 more games.  So half his games he pitches 6 or more innings.  Of which all were quality starts.  However, when he has not given a quality start, in half his outings, the other half has been pretty bad.  He had a couple of near quality starts that the team won, but for most part half his games the teams has had to score a ton of runs because he has given up more than a run per inning pitched.  I would say that is a far cry from 7 good innings for most part. 

Ryan has 7 out of his 20 starts meet the quality start term, but he has many that he pitched into 6th and was pulled, and only 1 of Ryan's starts this year did he allow more than 1 run per inning, a huge clunker of 10 runs in 4.2 innings.  He has had a few not good giving up 1 run per inning or close to it, but for most part he has kept games close giving 5 to 6 innings.  If Rocco let him go he maybe could have got a few more innings, but he is always quick to pull guys.  Maybe if Rocco does not Ryan get blown up and looks more like a Berrios line has, or maybe not. Many of Berrios blow ups have been in just a couple of innings as well.  

[bean5302]

7 hours ago, TWTwinsFan said:

his fastball touches....88mph in AAA debut

well...I dont think so

That's not good. The word was the Twins had been working with him to regain velocity, but if he's struggling at under 90mph at this point, after having a very well rested arm, that's pretty damning.

From MLB.com

At his best, Woods Richardson is an intriguing combination of size, stuff and feel for pitching. The Twins are working with him to regain the velocity on his fastball, which still features good movement but averaged only around 91 mph in 2021. He touched 96 mph, so the organization thinks more consistent velocity is in there if he can access it. His curve, an upper-70s downer, is a tick better than his low-80s slider, but it’s his changeup that is his only plus pitch right now, thrown with good fade and deception.

https://www.mlb.com/prospects/twins/simeon-woods-richardson-680573

If Woods-Richardson can't at least get his fastball into the low 90s, I'd be surprised if he would be effective at the MLB level. Veteran pitchers who've mastered their craft and have years of experience against MLB competition to know what works can often pitch effectively enough without the velocity, but for a rookie? That's a very tall call and one reason I'm not high at all on Cole Sands starting.
 

[arby58]

10 hours ago, MABB1959 said:

SWR is not here and has proved nothing.  It has been over a year and we have nothing to show for the Berrios trade!

 

When the Twins traded Eduardo Escobar in 2018, they had 'nothing to show for the trade' until 2022 - and now Jhoan Duran is one of the top relief pitchers in baseball. Sometimes you have to have a bit of patience.

[jimbo92107]

What's this about his heater - struggling to get into the low 90's? That doesn't indicate a pending rotation horse. I thought SWR could pop the glove as hard as most. 

If that's so, then I cannot predict great success for this young man. The vast majority of successful mlb pitchers can get at least 94 or better on their heater, with good command. The only exceptions are control wizards, which are rare. Even the great Greg Maddux hung 'em up after he couldn't throw it 89 anymore. At 88, even his miraculous cutters were getting spanked. At that speed, might as well throw a knuckler. 

[Hrbowski]

I've seen a few of his starts, and have the opinion that that he's nowhere near where Berrios was as a prospect, based off the following:

His fastball is in the range of 88-93 mph, sitting at 90-91. It's a below average pitch. His changeup has good depth and fade, and tunnels well off his fastball, sitting in the low to mid 80s. It's an above average pitch. His curveball has really good vertical movement, but it's easily recognizable out of his hand. It has the potential to be a plus pitch, as it can get swings and misses, but for now it's getting knocked around too much to be anything better than average. His slider sits in the low to mid 80s, and he seems to struggle with commanding it. It's a below average pitch.

His mechanics are very concerning. His front hip gets raised too high above his pelvic plane in his delivery, which results in his plant foot getting down late and his hips staying closed too long, resulting in poor hip/shoulder separation, an inefficiency that hurts his velocity. Additionally, his back foot leaves the rubber too early, and he has no ankle eversion that you see in the most efficient throwers such as Gerrit Cole and Jacob deGrom. His throwing arm action is too long, with his hand extending well below his back hip and having a wild spiraling effect that will likely lead to injury. He does a good job of keeping his scapulars and arm on plane at the point of his release, but with his exaggerated over the top delivery, to accomplish this he needs to curl his spine towards the first base side of the rubber, which combined with his glove side opening up too early causes him to fall off towards first base and away from the target, which is another cause for the lower than expected velocity.

He's well filled out for his frame, which is promising, but with as many mechanical inefficiencies as he has, it's going to be a long road ahead before he can reach his full potential, in my opinion.

[strumdatjag]

He needs a better nickname than SWR.  If he develops a good curveball and his other pitches have movement - I suggest “The SWeRve”.  

[Danchat]

15 hours ago, Sean.h said:

is the ceiling higher than Berrios's ceiling? Maybe but probably not.

is the ceiling higher than Berrios's performance? Definitely yes

is he likely to exceed Berrios's performance? Unlikely, though it would be nice.

Well said, I was going to say something very similar. It's more likely he does not achieve what Berrios did over his career, but it's within the realm of possibility.

[bean5302]

30 minutes ago, howieramone3 said:

The 88 is not a permanent disease. It was probably uphill, against the wind. The consensus was we made a solid trade and that hasn't changed.

It's been an consistent issue since the Twins got him from the latest reads. Also, it might explain a lot about Woods-Richardson being assigned to the Development List instead of AA when he arrived from Tokyo.

[bean5302]

3 hours ago, arby58 said:

When the Twins traded Eduardo Escobar in 2018, they had 'nothing to show for the trade' until 2022 - and now Jhoan Duran is one of the top relief pitchers in baseball. Sometimes you have to have a bit of patience.

A couple months of Eduardo Escobar vs. Jose Berrios for more than a full year, plus the expected value of a qualifying offer is an enormous difference in value. If the Twins don't get anything of value out of Woods-Richardson or Martin until 2025, it'll be pretty horrible.

Duran was part of 2 mid level and 1 unranked prospect throw all playing in the low minors.
Martin and Woods-Richardson were both top tier prospects playing in the high majors. Totally different expectations.

[AlwaysinModeration]

7 hours ago, Hrbowski said:

I've seen a few of his starts, and have the opinion that that he's nowhere near where Berrios was as a prospect, based off the following:

His fastball is in the range of 88-93 mph, sitting at 90-91. It's a below average pitch. His changeup has good depth and fade, and tunnels well off his fastball, sitting in the low to mid 80s. It's an above average pitch. His curveball has really good vertical movement, but it's easily recognizable out of his hand. It has the potential to be a plus pitch, as it can get swings and misses, but for now it's getting knocked around too much to be anything better than average. His slider sits in the low to mid 80s, and he seems to struggle with commanding it. It's a below average pitch.

His mechanics are very concerning. His front hip gets raised too high above his pelvic plane in his delivery, which results in his plant foot getting down late and his hips staying closed too long, resulting in poor hip/shoulder separation, an inefficiency that hurts his velocity. Additionally, his back foot leaves the rubber too early, and he has no ankle eversion that you see in the most efficient throwers such as Gerrit Cole and Jacob deGrom. His throwing arm action is too long, with his hand extending well below his back hip and having a wild spiraling effect that will likely lead to injury. He does a good job of keeping his scapulars and arm on plane at the point of his release, but with his exaggerated over the top delivery, to accomplish this he needs to curl his spine towards the first base side of the rubber, which combined with his glove side opening up too early causes him to fall off towards first base and away from the target, which is another cause for the lower than expected velocity.

He's well filled out for his frame, which is promising, but with as many mechanical inefficiencies as he has, it's going to be a long road ahead before he can reach his full potential, in my opinion.

This is one of the most insightful comments I have ever read on Twins Daily.

[TwinsDr2021]

1 hour ago, howieramone3 said:

21 and in AAA. Time for the fan board to panic. 

Not that it is a huge difference but he turns 22 next month, which is still plenty of time to get a good major league pitcher, but as I have posted before the older a prospect debuts the less chance it becomes to be a star.

[Bigfork Twins Guy]

12 hours ago, Hrbowski said:

I've seen a few of his starts, and have the opinion that that he's nowhere near where Berrios was as a prospect, based off the following:

His fastball is in the range of 88-93 mph, sitting at 90-91. It's a below average pitch. His changeup has good depth and fade, and tunnels well off his fastball, sitting in the low to mid 80s. It's an above average pitch. His curveball has really good vertical movement, but it's easily recognizable out of his hand. It has the potential to be a plus pitch, as it can get swings and misses, but for now it's getting knocked around too much to be anything better than average. His slider sits in the low to mid 80s, and he seems to struggle with commanding it. It's a below average pitch.

His mechanics are very concerning. His front hip gets raised too high above his pelvic plane in his delivery, which results in his plant foot getting down late and his hips staying closed too long, resulting in poor hip/shoulder separation, an inefficiency that hurts his velocity. Additionally, his back foot leaves the rubber too early, and he has no ankle eversion that you see in the most efficient throwers such as Gerrit Cole and Jacob deGrom. His throwing arm action is too long, with his hand extending well below his back hip and having a wild spiraling effect that will likely lead to injury. He does a good job of keeping his scapulars and arm on plane at the point of his release, but with his exaggerated over the top delivery, to accomplish this he needs to curl his spine towards the first base side of the rubber, which combined with his glove side opening up too early causes him to fall off towards first base and away from the target, which is another cause for the lower than expected velocity.

He's well filled out for his frame, which is promising, but with as many mechanical inefficiencies as he has, it's going to be a long road ahead before he can reach his full potential, in my opinion.

 

4 hours ago, AlwaysinModeration said:

This is one of the most insightful comments I have ever read on Twins Daily.

Yeah, I agree,  When I read this I figured that Hrbowski must be doctor or pitching coach.  With all the flaws that were highlighted in SWR's delivery I had also wondered if we could hire the guy down in LSU as an offseason consultant to help SWR resolve some of them.

[MTV]

IF SWR is as good as Berrios was in his stretch with the Twins, there needs to be 2 changes that happen with SWR: support and control. Berrios was great but outside of 2020 Maeda he had practically no pitching help and sat alone atop the rotation. Get quality guys behind SWR and see what happens. Then, lock him up if he is really looking that good. The Twins should’ve extended Berrios and offered it to him in 2018-2020, if you have a guy like that in your rotation pay him.

[dxpavelka]

He'd better be or some heads should roll.