Week in Review: Running into a Wall

[Nick Nelson]

The Twins came into this past week needing a surge, and things started out promisingly with four straight wins. But the mild hot streak was snuffed out by a pair of ugly losses on Saturday and Sunday that left the team reeling.

Too often this year, the pitching or hitting showing up as been a mutually exclusive proposition.

Weekly Snapshot: Mon, 8/15 through Sun, 8/21
***
Record Last Week: 4-2 (Overall: 62-57)
Run Differential Last Week: +8 (Overall: +25)
Standing: 2nd Place in AL Central (1.5 GA)

Last Week's Game Results:

Game 114 | MIN 4, KC 2: Kepler and Twins Break Their Slumps
Game 115 | MIN 9, KC 0: Gray Dominates in Much-Needed Blowout
Game 116 | MIN 4, KC 0: Second Straight Shutout Seals Sweep
Game 117 | MIN 2, TEX 1: Pitchers Lead the Way Once Again
Game 118 | TEX 4, MIN 3: Lack of Clutch Hitting Leads to Late Loss
Game 119 | TEX 7, MIN 0: Twins Lifeless in Embarrassing Blowout

NEWS & NOTES

Alarms started going off immediately on Wednesday afternoon when Tyler Mahle came out throwing with noticeably diminished velocity. That's a scary sign for a key deadline acquisition who already spent weeks on the injured list this summer with shoulder issues, and sure enough, Mahle was pulled in the second inning due to what was described as soreness and fatigue in his shoulder.

After getting back clean scans, the Twins were relatively optimistic about Mahle's outlook, but he still landed on the IL and will miss at least a couple of starts. Devin Smeltzer was called up to take his spot on the roster.

In more positive news on the health front, the team seems optimistic about Kenta Maeda, Bailey Ober, Trevor Larnach and Kyle Garlick back in the relatively near future, with all four ramping up on the road back to MLB action. Meanwhile, Randy Dobnak tossed three scoreless innings across two appearances in the Florida Complex League, and should be taking his rehab stint to Triple-A in the coming week, barring setbacks. 

A final roster move of note: On Wednesday, the Twins claimed relief pitcher Jake Jewell of waivers from Cleveland, adding him to the 40-man roster and optioning him to St. Paul. He's a 29-year-old with a 7.75 ERA in 38 ⅓ innings, but he's more interesting than those details suggest.

Jewell has been excellent at Triple-A all season. In 44 ⅓ innings for the Guardians' Triple-A affiliate, he posted a 2.49 ERA and 48-to-15 K/BB ratio with zero home runs allowed. He made his debut for St. Paul on Friday and tossed a clean inning with two strikeouts. The right-hander has a good chance of getting a shot in the Twins bullpen at some point in the last six weeks.

A fun fact about Jewell is that, according to Baseball Reference, his nickname is for some reason "Bob."

HIGHLIGHTS

It was a much-needed big week for the pitching staff, with starters bouncing back and the bullpen (mostly) locking things down. A sweep over the Royals was fueled by 26 consecutive scoreless innings, with Sonny Gray and the relief corps guiding back-to-back shutouts. 

Gray was at his best on Tuesday, allowing only three singles and a walk over six innings. He struck out 10 and induced a season-high 14 swinging strikes. Gray pitched into the seventh for the first time since June, reflecting a bit of a trend for the week: Rocco Baldelli easing up on his stringent opposition to letting starters pitch deep.

One day earlier, Joe Ryan had been sent out to pitch the sixth in a circumstance where Baldelli might have otherwise turned to the bullpen. Granted, in both these cases the wisdom of the Twins' typical strategy was reaffirmed – both Gray and Ryan created dangerous situations that Caleb Thielbar had to defuse – but hopefully the showings of confidence will prove positive for these and other pitchers. 

Even Chris Archer was allowed to complete five innings on Saturday, for just the fifth time in 21 starts, and he uncharacteristically talked his manager out of pulling him during a mound visit. 

Luckily, turning to the bullpen wasn't as hazardous a proposition as it was the week prior. Prior to Sunday's lackluster performance from Trevor Megill and Emilio Pagán, Twins relievers had combined for to allow just two earned runs in 22 innings (0.82 ERA), with a 24-to-5 K/BB ratio and no home runs allowed. Thielbar was a huge factor with his fireman outings, and as usual Jhoan Durán was lights-out, firing three scoreless frames with five strikeouts, no walks, and two singles allowed.

Speaking of standout rookies who keep on getting it done (and then some), José Miranda was once again a driving force in the lineup, finishing 8-for-19 with two home runs and six RBIs. I feel like I've been mentioning Miranda in the "Highlights" section of this column every week for the past three months or so, which speaks to the incredible consistency of his impact.

LOWLIGHTS

Byron Buxton and Carlos Correa are having fine seasons, but the inconsistency of this offense as a whole feels strongly tied to the inability of each to deliver hits in timely spots. This severe weakness of the lineup was on full display Saturday night, when the bats went 1-for-10 with RISP en route to a 4-2 loss in 10 innings, with Buxton and Correa combining to go 0-for-4. 

The game left Buxton with a .145/.270/.355 RISP slash line, and Correa .227/.322/.280. The Twins need more opportunistic hitting out of these players who are critical to their chances at rallying for a division title; since the start of July, both are in the negative for Win Probability Added. In fact, over the past two months, Buxton's WPA is lower than any Twin sans Tim Beckham, Kyle Garlick, Jake Cave, and Max Kepler.

The name that stands out in that list of negative difference-makers is of course Kepler, who is supposed to be a cornerstone fixture. His once-promising season is tanking and steering toward being one of his worst as a big-leaguer. The patience he showed early on (13.5% walk rate through July 4th) has evaporated (4.2% since), along with his power (1 HR in his past 31 games). 

These are big problems because Kepler's staggering BABIP woes have once again taken center stage: he has a .118 average on balls in play since the All-Star break, dropping his mark on the season to .244, which is right on par with his dreadful career norm (.247).   

Kepler is playing through a broken pinky toe, which earns him a bit of grace, as does the fact that Baldelli has had no choice but to run him out against a bunch of lefty pitchers lately. But frankly this is all nothing new. Kepler's continual lack of evolution as a hitter is frustrating and tiresome.

When your starting right fielder is producing at the same level as your backup catcher (Kepler's OPS is now almost identical to that of Gary Sánchez) it's a big problem.

TRENDING STORYLINE

Mahle was lined up to pitch the series opener in Houston on Tuesday, but now he won't. It's unclear who will be taking his place, but the decision looms fairly large amidst a tight division race and against one of the league's most dangerous lineups.

Mercifully, the replacement won't be Smeltzer, who tossed three innings in relief Archer on Saturday night. The other obvious options – Aaron Sanchez, Cole Sands, a bullpen game – aren't too much more appealing. Simeon Woods Richardson is also not available, having started for St. Paul on Sunday, but fellow recently-promoted Saint Louie Varland could theoretically be in play.

One thing is for sure: the Twins need to run out someone they feel can give them a remote chance against Justin Verlander and Houston's powerhouse offense.

LOOKING AHEAD

The three-game series in Houston is probably the most difficult remaining on the Twins schedule, and unfortunately they will be throwing the worst of their rotation at the Astros, with whoever replaces Mahle on Tuesday to be followed by Dylan Bundy and Archer. 

This intensifies the urgency of getting a win on Monday behind Gray and salvage a split in the series finale against Texas. 

MONDAY, 8/22: RANGERS @ TWINS – LHP Cole Ragans v. RHP Sonny Gray
TUESDAY, 8/23: TWINS @ ASTROS – TBD v. RHP Justin Verlander
WEDNESDAY, 8/24: TWINS @ ASTROS – RHP Dylan Bundy v. LHP Framber Valdez
THURSDAY, 8/25: TWINS @ ASTROS – RHP Chris Archer v. RHP Luis Garcia
FRIDAY, 8/26: GIANTS @ TWINS – LHP Alex Wood v. RHP Joe Ryan
SATURDAY, 8/27: GIANTS @ TWINS – RHP Alex Cobb v. RHP Sonny Gray
SUNDAY, 8/28: GIANTS @ TWINS – RHP Jakob Junis v. TBD

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[KirbyDome89]

Can't remember the last time the tone of these reviews was any different. Pretty much the last 3+ months in a nutshell.

[High heat]

If they don’t go on a run here you can pretty well put a fork in this team!  
 

if you can’t put up runs and win against Texas what makes you think you are against the Astros or Yankees or Cleveland 

[MABB1959]

When do heads start to roll?   I don’t think we have really won or come out on top with trades made?  It doesn’t seem like player development is even good. The few players that have made it as MLB quality are few and far between.  Keeping players healthy has been horrible.   Questionable day to day lineup’s and pitching management not even average.  Kepler should be DFA’d or at the very least benched instead he often hits in prime spots.  Not even sure how to categorize the lack of getting the team to even appear that they want to win.  A few really put their hearts in the game.  We are now 2-3 years past being the competitive team we were supposed to have.  It doesn’t seem like they are rebuilding.   Basically if most of us were this incompetent we would have been fired a long time ago.  

[nokomismod]

59 minutes ago, MABB1959 said:

When do heads start to roll?   I don’t think we have really won or come out on top with trades made?  It doesn’t seem like player development is even good. The few players that have made it as MLB quality are few and far between.  Keeping players healthy has been horrible.   Questionable day to day lineup’s and pitching management not even average.  Kepler should be DFA’d or at the very least benched instead he often hits in prime spots.  Not even sure how to categorize the lack of getting the team to even appear that they want to win.  A few really put their hearts in the game.  We are now 2-3 years past being the competitive team we were supposed to have.  It doesn’t seem like they are rebuilding.   Basically if most of us were this incompetent we would have been fired a long time ago.  

I would argue that there has been some exciting new faces (player development this year). If Larnach and Kiriloff would have stayed healthy Kepler's dismal performance wouldn't have been on display as much.

[MABB1959]

6 hours ago, nokomismod said:

I would argue that there has been some exciting new faces (player development this year). If Larnach and Kiriloff would have stayed healthy Kepler's dismal performance wouldn't have been on display as much.

It is a combination of failures.   I know all teams have injuries but the medical staff of the Twins has to be at the bottom.  How on earth did they think Mahle was healthy?   Far too many.  

[Jeff D.]

The Twins are flat lined with clutch hitting and run manufacturing. As much as homers are fun this team isn't doing that or actually much of anything in the batter's box. We have serious issues when two long term Twins like Buxton and Kepler cannot hit. It is very weird to me to hear the accolades for BB when he often does not play in CF or even DH. I actually am glad when he does not play, as most on the team that can play CF hit better. So, what if he hits a homer? He doesn't hit or whiffs very often. Both he and Kepler are incredible defensive ball players, but cannot hit. 

We have no offense at catcher. LF right now is void of hits. Adding woe is the fact that Polanco is having a very poor year batting. I'll take a SS that can hit .265 - .270 any day, even if his name is Correa. 

Luckilly, we have Miranda and Arraez. Even Gordon has surprised! Injuries have zapped the rest of the team that does not take the mound. 

Love this team but there is not any emotion, energy, consistency or leadership in the dugout. I'll cheer and support the team the rest of the way to the end of 2022.

See you at Spring Training 2023 with high hopes. This team will be on fall and winter vacations. Go Twins.

Twins Geezer.... out!

[LastOnePicked]

Gleeman and Bonnes talk often about 60/40 decisions for the Twins. Simply, a lot of the decisions that Rocco and the FO make are entirely defendable decisions. They would seem - theoretically, at least - to be wise decisions. BUT ... a 60/40 decision still has a 40% crash rate, and that 40% has hit this team consistently. Add in the unexpected disasters - Wes Johnsons resigns, Royce Lewis tears ACL again, pipeline arms falling off - and it's just a snakebit organization living under the curse of some uprooted spruce.

And sadly, this has all happened at exactly the wrong time. After an 0-18 run in playoff misery and a crash-and-burn year in 2021, there is simply not much charity or grace or optimism left in the fanbase. We're only 1.5 games out with plenty of games left against key rivals, but most posters here (myself included) are declaring the season dead.

So, it seems like there are only two options left. 1) Set aside disappointment and just root like hell for this club over the final stretch. Our beleaguered losers need a boost that only a loyal fanbase can provide. Or 2) Pack it in, watch it burn, and push very hard for a total organizational rebuild starting in 2023. No Rocco. No Falvine. New coaches. Start fresh, and let a 5-7 year rebuild play itself out.

I haven't made up my mind yet which option I prefer, so don't feel bad if you haven't either.

[theBOMisthebomb]

It doesn't take much imagination to find a 2-5 or 1-6 record as a distinct possibility. The Astros have a distinct advantage in Tuesday night's TBD v. RHP Justin Verlander matchup. I'm sure glad that game is getting featured on MLB Network. 

[Doctor Gast]

IMO the offense is dead overall because of BP losing those games that the offence had won, in the 1st half. Now that the BP is mainly on track the offense doesn't have that spark

Also Buxton is the heart of this team. His defensive plays, stolen bases, triples, taking that extra base & HRs. really fires up this team & fan base. Him playing DH & floundering doesn't help the team. IMO Buxton & Kepler needs another break on the IL to get them healthy again & fired up. I know we really need him right now but not the way he is.

I'd like them to bring up A Sanchez & keep him up as long relief even when Mahle returns.

[USAFChief]

10 hours ago, nokomismod said:

I would argue that there has been some exciting new faces (player development this year). If Larnach and Kiriloff would have stayed healthy Kepler's dismal performance wouldn't have been on display as much.

We'd all like to think so, but to date there isn't much if any difference between the 3 on offense. In fact Kepler has outhit Kirilloff in 2022. And both Kirilloff and Larnach are worse defensively, although I don't put much stock in the importance of corner OF defense.

I know there are potentially injury reasons, but it's not clear, to me at least, those are the cause. Or in the case of Kirilloff, something we can assume will resolve.

For me at least, neither have proven they're the answer to anything. 

[Vanimal46]

The current week is going to be tough to watch. Especially if the stars Buxton and Correa continue to flatline. It’s getting to be time to enjoy the last part of summer here in Minnesota and put the Twins on the back burner. 

[tony&rodney]

One change in baseball from the 2019 and 2020 seasons is the increased competitiveness of teams with losing records. The Twins  feasted on Kansas City and Detroit and everyone rolled over Baltimore. The Twins are definitely in a funk right now with the bats and we should expect more from Correa, Buxton, and Polanco among others. September is right around the corner and the Twins are above .500 and hanging in the division, meaning that we can still hope for good baseball to be played down the stretch. While it is always nice to sweep teams that are lower in the standings, especially at Target Field, the Twins need to show some talent versus those teams similar to them and also against those markedly better. The Twins have 10 games before September 1 and despite some dispirited play recently, the team could wake up in first place before their weekend series in Chicago against the White Sox.

[Major League Ready]

1 hour ago, LastOnePicked said:

Gleeman and Bonnes talk often about 60/40 decisions for the Twins. Simply, a lot of the decisions that Rocco and the FO make are entirely defendable decisions. They would seem - theoretically, at least - to be wise decisions. BUT ... a 60/40 decision still has a 40% crash rate, and that 40% has hit this team consistently. Add in the unexpected disasters - Wes Johnsons resigns, Royce Lewis tears ACL again, pipeline arms falling off - and it's just a snakebit organization living under the curse of some uprooted spruce.

And sadly, this has all happened at exactly the wrong time. After an 0-18 run in playoff misery and a crash-and-burn year in 2021, there is simply not much charity or grace or optimism left in the fanbase. We're only 1.5 games out with plenty of games left against key rivals, but most posters here (myself included) are declaring the season dead.

So, it seems like there are only two options left. 1) Set aside disappointment and just root like hell for this club over the final stretch. Our beleaguered losers need a boost that only a loyal fanbase can provide. Or 2) Pack it in, watch it burn, and push very hard for a total organizational rebuild starting in 2023. No Rocco. No Falvine. New coaches. Start fresh, and let a 5-7 year rebuild play itself out.

I haven't made up my mind yet which option I prefer, so don't feel bad if you haven't either.

Before we go giving away the next 5-7 years, let's see what we have when they get Winder / Ober / Maeda / Alcala / Kirilloff / Larnach / Jeffers and eventually Paddack and Lewis back.  Plus they will have $60M to spend in free agency.  

[theBOMisthebomb]

3 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

Before we go giving away the next 5-7 years, let's see what we have when they get Winder / Ober / Maeda / Alcala / Kirilloff / Larnach / Jeffers and eventually Paddack and Lewis back.  Plus they will have $60M to spend in free agency.  

Yes, if the Twins can win tonight and sneak 2 out of 3 from Houston and San Diego can get a two game mini sweep of Cleveland then things might smell differently. I'm surprised to see so many Twins fans on the ledge.  

[SwainZag]

7 hours ago, LastOnePicked said:

Gleeman and Bonnes talk often about 60/40 decisions for the Twins. Simply, a lot of the decisions that Rocco and the FO make are entirely defendable decisions. They would seem - theoretically, at least - to be wise decisions. BUT ... a 60/40 decision still has a 40% crash rate, and that 40% has hit this team consistently. Add in the unexpected disasters - Wes Johnsons resigns, Royce Lewis tears ACL again, pipeline arms falling off - and it's just a snakebit organization living under the curse of some uprooted spruce.

And sadly, this has all happened at exactly the wrong time. After an 0-18 run in playoff misery and a crash-and-burn year in 2021, there is simply not much charity or grace or optimism left in the fanbase. We're only 1.5 games out with plenty of games left against key rivals, but most posters here (myself included) are declaring the season dead.

So, it seems like there are only two options left. 1) Set aside disappointment and just root like hell for this club over the final stretch. Our beleaguered losers need a boost that only a loyal fanbase can provide. Or 2) Pack it in, watch it burn, and push very hard for a total organizational rebuild starting in 2023. No Rocco. No Falvine. New coaches. Start fresh, and let a 5-7 year rebuild play itself out.

I haven't made up my mind yet which option I prefer, so don't feel bad if you haven't either.

The Twins lost nealry 90  games last year, replaced nearly the entire pitching staff and rolled with more than 50% of a 25 man roster of 1st or 2nd year players this season for a good portion of the season.  For most intents and purposes, THIS year was/is a rebuilding year.  There is absolutely zero reason to burn it down with the amount of young talent on the roster and IL right now.

I understand that some disappointment  should be felt after the hot start to the year this season, but anyone that expected some 95-100 win team from the roster that was ready to go on Opening Day, especially in the pitching realm, would have been called crazy.  Injuries have been a huge bummer, but there has been a lot of promise from young talent.  A winning season should probably be looked at as a win this season after year's S-storm and something to build on for next year.  Maybe that's too half full, but the Twins are in a better position than a lot of clubs around the league.

 

Edit: Fuzzy details