"Stolen bases just don't matter"

[USAFChief]

The arrogance with which this front office and this manager pretend stolen bases don't matter really irritates me. 

We don't ever run. Worse, we act like it doesn't matter anyone who wants to can run at will on us. No big deal. 

We don't ask our pitchers to hold runners, to the point the ghost runner on 2nd in extra innings can steal third without the pitcher even looking back. Everyone takes a huge leg kick. We don't pitch out, ever. Our weak armed catchers have one knee on the ground in SB situations because pitch framing. 

It'll get ignored because of the pen and the offense today, but that entire 7th inning debacle today was made infinitely worse because we can't or won't defend against SBs. And it happens regularly.

I'm tired of pretending analytics means you don't have to still play the game. Stuff like this has mattered for 150 years. It still does. 

[RpR]

17 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

The arrogance with which this front office and this manager pretend stolen bases don't matter really irritates me. 

We don't ever run. Worse, we act like it doesn't matter anyone who wants to can run at will on us. No big deal. 

We don't ask our pitchers to hold runners, to the point the ghost runner on 2nd in extra innings can steal third without the pitcher even looking back. Everyone takes a huge leg kick. We don't pitch out, ever. Our weak armed catchers have one knee on the ground in SB situations because pitch framing. 

It'll get ignored because of the pen and the offense today, but that entire 7th inning debacle today was made infinitely worse because we can't or won't defend against SBs. And it happens regularly.

I'm tired of pretending analytics means you don't have to still play the game. Stuff like this has mattered for 150 years. It still does. 

HEAR YE! HEAR YE!

[Rosterman]

The stolen base and the bunt are geat when not expected. Of course, if you have a real stolen base speedster, he can put a lot of pressure on a pitcher, and screw up fielder placement, which should be a plus.

[Linus]

On a recent broadcast the announcers mentioned that the Twins tried to get Leon to go down on one knee. He said no thanks which warmed my heart. What they give up on one knee pursuing some nebulous pitch framing number is a joke. 

[RpR]

8 minutes ago, Linus said:

On a recent broadcast the announcers mentioned that the Twins tried to get Leon to go down on one knee. He said no thanks which warmed my heart. What they give up on one knee pursuing some nebulous pitch framing number is a joke. 

HEAR YE!  HEAR YE!

[jkcarew]

Steeling bases, putting the ball in play, hitting behind a runner, advancing runners late, holding runners effectively…all that stuff does is help you win actual GAMES. It doesn’t help your WAR or wRC+ or expected ERA, and it sure as hell doesn’t get you to the show or get you paid once there. Hence, almost nobody has those skills. This is the way it’s going to be until they make the ball out of jello…or a new generation of stadiums are built that make home runs significantly less frequent/likely.

[LVTwinsfan]

1 hour ago, USAFChief said:

The arrogance with which this front office and this manager pretend stolen bases don't matter really irritates me. 

We don't ever run. Worse, we act like it doesn't matter anyone who wants to can run at will on us. No big deal. 

We don't ask our pitchers to hold runners, to the point the ghost runner on 2nd in extra innings can steal third without the pitcher even looking back. Everyone takes a huge leg kick. We don't pitch out, ever. Our weak armed catchers have one knee on the ground in SB situations because pitch framing. 

It'll get ignored because of the pen and the offense today, but that entire 7th inning debacle today was made infinitely worse because we can't or won't defend against SBs. And it happens regularly.

I'm tired of pretending analytics means you don't have to still play the game. Stuff like this has mattered for 150 years. It still does. 

It seems out of necesssity small ball is making a comeback, and teams that refuse to acknowledge its importance will pay the price. The Twins should be one of those teams looking to revive small ball. They need to learn to bunt especially. I don’t think playing station to station and playing for the three run inning is a viable option for this team. Play for one every inning, make them make the plays.  What they’re doing now clearly isn’t working. Rocco should talk to TK.

[tony&rodney]

I have said this before and I will repeat - it is ludicrous to suggest that an umpire looks at where the catcher catches the ball. Framing is a ruse. Umpires are distracted by a catcher who obscures their vision or lunges uncharacteristically at a pitch but the regular routine of calling balls and strikes is based on human judgment and where the umpire sets up. Although I never umpired at a high level (professional ball) I never once was influenced by how a catcher caught the ball. An umpire doesn't really see the ball hit the mitt, they see the ball as it comes to the plate and following it can be difficult in terms of does some part of the ball cross some part of the plate within the limits of the batter's strike zone. Although I prefer the imperfect human element of baseball (umpires, players, and managers make mistakes), I'm almost ready for the electronic strike zone because it will remove framing and the inherent subsequent poor catching practices from the game.

Athletic players are always a plus and moving runners from first to third is good and scoring runs is the goal in any game. Why Falvine/Baldelli believe that base runners and moving runners along is superfluous is a mystery but when the talent delivers big hits and scores runs in bunches and wins without a consideration to "small ball", then I guess it is easy to declare indifference. The Dodgers don't need to bunt, why should the Twins? However, the Dodgers do run, so why don't the Twins? The use of analytics has been around for a long time which is why platoons were so popular when teams carried fewer pitchers. The adherence to strict numerical suggestions as opposed to game situations and playing to the talent of the players will doom a team to problems. The Twins are among the worst in baseball at tallying runs with runners in scoring position so it makes sense to use some methods different than what is currently in practice. 

Pitchers may or may not be taught (within the Twins system) how to hold runners but any pitcher that is less than totally dominant should naturally take it upon themselves to vary their delivery and find ways to hold runners as a means of reducing runs scored against them. The inability to hold runners is a weakness that can be addressed by the individual pitchers. The leg down that supposedly creates better framing will be gone in a few years, sooner if teams start to engage the speed of their better athletes.

Hopefully the Twins will not be as slow to accept the next changes as they seemed to be in accepting OBP, line drive percentages, and a few other "analytics", and hopefully the slavish obstinance to a single belief is abandoned as well.

[FlyingFinn]

I was curious how our minor league teams rank in SB as the Twins are dead last. St. Paul - 99 SB, caught 23 times. 13th out of 20 teams. Wichita - 141-40, 3rd out of 10 teams. Cedar Rapids - 125-40, 6th out of 12 teams. Fort Myers - 157-64, 3rd in steals but caught stealing the most times (they are trying). 

Individually - St. Paul - Helman 20-3, Contreras 16-2, Lewis 12-2, Cave 10-0, and Palacios 10-8 (wow, he gets caught stealing a lot). Wichita - Kiersey 34-4, Martin 27-4, Julien 14-6, Helman 10-0. Cedar Rapids - Holland 21-4, Soularie 18-5, Garry 12-3, Gray 12-5, Prato 12-4, Perez 11-1. Fort Myers - Perez 32-5, Baez 19-2, Miller 19-7, Ozoria 17-3, Rucker 13-7, E.Rodriguez 11-5, Cardenas 10-5 (great for a catcher!)

Looks like our best base stealers are Helman, Lewis, Kiersey, Martin, Holland, Perez and E. Rodriguez. Other than Rodriguez, everyone else seems to be border line for making it to the majors unless Martin turns it around. 

Now, the Twins certainly could have and still could bring up Helman in place of Beckham. Beckham rarely plays, does not hit major league pitching like he does AAA, seems to be a liability in the field and is not fast. Helman plays many positions and believe is good defensively, obviously can steal, is hitting decently at AAA, and bats RH, which we need right now.

[Parfigliano]

On 8/21/2022 at 4:28 PM, Linus said:

On a recent broadcast the announcers mentioned that the Twins tried to get Leon to go down on one knee. He said no thanks which warmed my heart. What they give up on one knee pursuing some nebulous pitch framing number is a joke. 

I think pitch framing stats are an agent created-pushed stat to get more money for their player.  Any ump fooled by pitch framing should not have a job.

Edited August 23, 2022 by Parfigliano
Left out a word

[bean5302]

On 8/21/2022 at 5:02 PM, USAFChief said:

The arrogance with which this front office and this manager pretend stolen bases don't matter really irritates me. 

We don't ever run. Worse, we act like it doesn't matter anyone who wants to can run at will on us. No big deal. 

We don't ask our pitchers to hold runners, to the point the ghost runner on 2nd in extra innings can steal third without the pitcher even looking back. Everyone takes a huge leg kick. We don't pitch out, ever. Our weak armed catchers have one knee on the ground in SB situations because pitch framing. 

It'll get ignored because of the pen and the offense today, but that entire 7th inning debacle today was made infinitely worse because we can't or won't defend against SBs. And it happens regularly.

I'm tired of pretending analytics means you don't have to still play the game. Stuff like this has mattered for 150 years. It still does. 

Last night's game.
Stolen Bases - Byron Buxton
Caught Stealing - Nick Gordon

It's true, the Twins rarely attempt to swipe bases compared to other teams, but thanks to the front office's laser-like focus on bat only guys, there aren't many players on the team who are capable of stealing much. Then there's the fact they don't steal successfully even with speed, like Polanco. 

[Danchat]

This team doesn't have guys who can steal bases, the offense is built around slugging and extra base hits. They've underachieved in that department lately on top of being horrific in clutch situations. RBIs matter a lot more to me than SBs.

As for allowing SBs, that has to stop. But I guess the bed was made when they committed to Jeffers/Sanchez at catcher with no viable depth.

[ICTwin25]

20 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Last night's game.
Stolen Bases - Byron Buxton
Caught Stealing - Nick Gordon

It's true, the Twins rarely attempt to swipe bases compared to other teams, but thanks to the front office's laser-like focus on bat only guys, there aren't many players on the team who are capable of stealing much. Then there's the fact they don't steal successfully even with speed, like Polanco. 

Well, Nick Gordon was caught trying to steal 3rd and that isn't ideal. Buxton has the highest SB success rate of all time...yes of all time. Royce Lewis has good speed and I hope they get him stealing bases too. 

The Twins are never going to have the Dodgers or Yankees batting lineup so you have to be creative with situations to generate runs. That's why the Guardians are so dang good is because they take advantage of situations. The Twins are the exact opposite right now.

[jmlease1]

On 8/21/2022 at 5:58 PM, jkcarew said:

Steeling bases, putting the ball in play, hitting behind a runner, advancing runners late, holding runners effectively…all that stuff does is help you win actual GAMES. It doesn’t help your WAR or wRC+ or expected ERA, and it sure as hell doesn’t get you to the show or get you paid once there. Hence, almost nobody has those skills. This is the way it’s going to be until they make the ball out of jello…or a new generation of stadiums are built that make home runs significantly less frequent/likely.

Do you know what WAR is? Because if you're good at stealing bases it will help your WAR, and if you're bad at it then it will hurt your WAR. But you actually have to be good at it. If you're getting caught 30-40% of the time, then you're hurting the team by giving up precious outs. Twins aren't stealing bases because outside of Buxton they're pretty bad at it. It would probably be a little different if we had Austin Martin & Royce Lewis as regulars.

Putting the ball in play is useful, but most of the time it's not all that useful. (see also, Max kepler, weak contact to the right side) Advancing a runner from 1st to 2nd doesn't do much to improve your ability to get runs when you're exchanging it for an out. Same with 2nd to 3rd with 2 outs; you still need a hit to the OF to score the run. We're losing our minds right now because the Twins are stranding guys at 2nd and 3rd with no outs, but that's more about guys like Kepler or Cave coming up that simply aren't very good hitters. Keep in mind, the Twins actually aren't very strikeout prone this season: 9th fewest as of 8/24.

We've actually seen the Twins do more with the safety squeeze this season to try and grab a run this year than in recent years. (we've also seen some dreadful decisions by Tommy Watkins in sending runners).

Despite complaints about the team's inability to hit, they're 11th in MLB in BA, 9th in OBP, and 8th in slugging. The problem isn't really the approach, it's the number of injuries and replacing good hitters with bad ones. Right now the offense is dreadful because of injuries, but trying to get everyone playing small ball and stealing more bases, etc isn't going to fix it, because Cave, Contreras, Hamilton, Beckham, Leon et al aren't going to be much more help doing it that way either. (and neither are Kepler or Sanchez. Maybe Celestino. Maybe.)

[Muppet]

Just for fun I compared Byron Buxton's numbers this year to Vince Coleman's in 1987. Why? Because as a 10 year old in the 1987 season, Vince Coleman was by far the best player in the universe (as far as 10 year old St. Louis Cardinals fans are concerned). 

While they are slightly different players (e.g. Buxton can hit a home run), if Buxton had been playing in 1987 he would have been expected to steal somewhere between 40-100 bases. So, to see if it matters, I normalized both players numbers by the number of plate appearances Coleman had to compare the two projecting Buxton to have the same number of PAs. 

	VC	BB	BB^
BA	0.289	0.224
PA	702	382	702
H	180	76	140
Singles	153	32	59
BB	70	34	62
On first	223	66	121
R	121	61	112
SB	109	6	11
%sb/o1	0.488789	0.090909
R+RBI-HR	161	84	154

Buxton has fewer hits (as would be obvious with a lower batting average), but he is also only hitting 59 singles compared to Vince's 153. So add BBs to singles and get a rough estimate of 223 times on first base for VC versus 121 for BB (not counting ROEs, HBPs, etc... sorry). So then, BB steals 11 bases compared to VC's 109 which is (very) roughly 49% vs 9% of times VC steals second when on first vs BB. (Big caveat, VC stole 3rd many times and home 2 or 3 times as well... so the numbers aren't perfect). 

So... does all this matter? Well.. if we look at the number of runs each generate by calculating their runs scored plus RBIs minus HRs, we have Byron Buxton generating 154 runs while Vince Coleman generated 161. 

Sure, there are a lot of missing factors, so make your own conclusions. I conclude that given the potential for stolen bases to generate runs (without even considering the increase number of throwing errors, passed balls, increased pitch counts, holding the first baseman on the line, etc...) yes... in fact stolen bases do matter. 

 

[TwinsDr2021]

Teams in the hunt, sure seems like some of those team are doing something a bit different. Talk of the Yanks or Dodgers lineup but they are 6th and 7th in baseball.

NYY - 77 (7th)
TBR - 69 (13th)
TOR - 47 (23rd)
CLE - 80 (5th)
HOU - 64 (16th)
SEA - 67 (14th)
BALT - 73 (10th)
CHW - 41 (25th)

NYM - 46 (24th)
ATL - 70 (12th)
STL - 75 (9th)
LAD - 79 (6th)
SD - 38 (27th)
PHI - 82 (3rd)

MN - 26 (30)

[Trov]

On 8/21/2022 at 7:11 PM, tony&rodney said:

I have said this before and I will repeat - it is ludicrous to suggest that an umpire looks at where the catcher catches the ball. Framing is a ruse. Umpires are distracted by a catcher who obscures their vision or lunges uncharacteristically at a pitch but the regular routine of calling balls and strikes is based on human judgment and where the umpire sets up. Although I never umpired at a high level (professional ball) I never once was influenced by how a catcher caught the ball. An umpire doesn't really see the ball hit the mitt, they see the ball as it comes to the plate and following it can be difficult in terms of does some part of the ball cross some part of the plate within the limits of the batter's strike zone. Although I prefer the imperfect human element of baseball (umpires, players, and managers make mistakes), I'm almost ready for the electronic strike zone because it will remove framing and the inherent subsequent poor catching practices from the game.

 

I get what you are saying, and it makes sense, but the problem is there is data to back up that framing a pitch a certain way does get more strikes called by the ump.  They track every pitch called, where it is called over thousands a season.  They can see how some catcher routinely, no matter the pitcher, gets more percent of close calls in their favor.  The stats bear it out that somewhere in the back of the umps brain it is affecting their decision.  It may be as nuanced of it hit the catchers glove and he did not have to move, or he reached into the zone to catch it, versus he had to reach across the plate to catch it. 

I fully agree it should not matter, and we should have an electronic strike zone, but facts are facts and it is backed up by data that some catchers get a higher percentage of close calls or even pitches out of the zone called strikes versus others.  You cannot refute that it happens. Even your time as an ump you may think it has no influence but it may have some very small influence that you do not even know it does. 

[Trov]

In terms of the stolen base, they do matter, and I doubt the Twins would tell you they do not.  If a team just does not do it or does not stop stealing then it is an issue, and the Twins have addressed it some though out the year, but they are not the best at stopping the run game for sure.  They also are not good at stealing themselves, in part Buck is hurt and rest of the team is ehhh at stealing.  Maybe because they do not practice it much because the risk reward factor is not there most of the time.  Maybe the team just does not want to do it, but as the minor league numbers point out, they are doing it down there, so might be in part our team lacks the ability right now. 

[RpR]

4 minutes ago, Trov said:

In terms of the stolen base, they do matter, and I doubt the Twins would tell you they do not.  If a team just does not do it or does not stop stealing then it is an issue, and the Twins have addressed it some though out the year, but they are not the best at stopping the run game for sure.  They also are not good at stealing themselves, in part Buck is hurt and rest of the team is ehhh at stealing.  Maybe because they do not practice it much because the risk reward factor is not there most of the time.  Maybe the team just does not want to do it, but as the minor league numbers point out, they are doing it down there, so might be in part our team lacks the ability right now. 

Buxton , Kepler and --- Cave  are their best base stealing players, but the Twins prefer to get put out via double play verses putting stress on opposing pitchers via base stealing,?

[LA VIkes Fan]

The sabermetrics will tell you that stolen base attempts are not worth it unless you succeed at least 75% of the time. In other words, if you succeed less than 75% of the time you actually hurt your chances of scoring runs overall. A stolen base is a positive play; a caught stealing is a much more negative play. That's the issue. This team has no real speed outside of Buxton and maybe Gordon. I don't count Cave since he should never be on the field except as a late inning pinch runner. Baldelli being true to his computer doesn't like to try to steal bases with anyone else.  Part of it is the talent we have, but I agree that part of it is a lack of emphasis in the Minors and in drafting so we have no guys with experience or with the physical tools.  

By the way, none of this excuses our inability to advance runners with productive outs. That's just bad baseball and bad coaching.  

[RpR]

 

Is there a chart that shows how often base stealers scored against Minn. this year.

I mean the Twins never hit into double plays.

But then with Jeffers it was steal as often as opposing team wished.

 

[darin617]

You just need players with the ability to go 1st to 3rd on base hits.

[jmlease1]

18 hours ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

The sabermetrics will tell you that stolen base attempts are not worth it unless you succeed at least 75% of the time. In other words, if you succeed less than 75% of the time you actually hurt your chances of scoring runs overall. A stolen base is a positive play; a caught stealing is a much more negative play. That's the issue. This team has no real speed outside of Buxton and maybe Gordon. I don't count Cave since he should never be on the field except as a late inning pinch runner. Baldelli being true to his computer doesn't like to try to steal bases with anyone else.  Part of it is the talent we have, but I agree that part of it is a lack of emphasis in the Minors and in drafting so we have no guys with experience or with the physical tools.  

By the way, none of this excuses our inability to advance runners with productive outs. That's just bad baseball and bad coaching.  

So you had me right up until you said the bit about Baldelli being "true to his computer". Having your players do what they're good at and avoid what they're bad at is at the heart of why the twins aren't stealing many bases and having very many attempts, regardless of where the information comes from. (I don't like the concept of the "productive out" either. All outs are bad for the team, at best some outs are less damaging that others, i.e., you might extract some value out of it. But calling them "productive outs" makes them sound like good things and they're still not.)

[Trov]

20 hours ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

The sabermetrics will tell you that stolen base attempts are not worth it unless you succeed at least 75% of the time. In other words, if you succeed less than 75% of the time you actually hurt your chances of scoring runs overall. A stolen base is a positive play; a caught stealing is a much more negative play. That's the issue. This team has no real speed outside of Buxton and maybe Gordon. I don't count Cave since he should never be on the field except as a late inning pinch runner. Baldelli being true to his computer doesn't like to try to steal bases with anyone else.  Part of it is the talent we have, but I agree that part of it is a lack of emphasis in the Minors and in drafting so we have no guys with experience or with the physical tools.  

By the way, none of this excuses our inability to advance runners with productive outs. That's just bad baseball and bad coaching.  

The key you point out is the 75% success rate.  The issue is, too many teams have done away with it, but not looked at if they can be successful it will help score more runs.  Also, the sabermetics does not take each game situation into account, but takes all the history of the games and comes out with a historical percentage.  That has, and always will be my issue with analytics is they do not look at each situation individually.  

For example, does it look at with 0 outs, and a sinker ball pitcher with a slow hitter, what are the odds of a double play, and compare those to the risk reward of a stolen base?  I mean if say the hitter will hit into a double play, or a deep fly on say 75% of at bats, which will either get 2 outs or keep runner at 1st, how does that impact the chance of scoring a run versus say, a 70% chance you steal the base?  

My point is, there may be times that the 75% does not hold true in that particular situation, but only look at the difference in scoring a run from 2nd base versus 1st. Analytics has taken the individual game situations out of the picture in my opinion. 

[RpR]

Too many people are trying to cover up,  with magic numbers,  the fact that Twins very poor base running is a major reason in their poor record.

[Mike Sixel]

2 hours ago, RpR said:

Too many people are trying to cover up,  with magic numbers,  the fact that Twins very poor base running is a major reason in their poor record.

Actually the magic numbers say the Twins are bad at baserunning, so I am not sure what your point is.

[Twodogs]

On 8/21/2022 at 3:02 PM, USAFChief said:

The arrogance with which this front office and this manager pretend stolen bases don't matter really irritates me. 

We don't ever run. Worse, we act like it doesn't matter anyone who wants to can run at will on us. No big deal. 

We don't ask our pitchers to hold runners, to the point the ghost runner on 2nd in extra innings can steal third without the pitcher even looking back. Everyone takes a huge leg kick. We don't pitch out, ever. Our weak armed catchers have one knee on the ground in SB situations because pitch framing. 

It'll get ignored because of the pen and the offense today, but that entire 7th inning debacle today was made infinitely worse because we can't or won't defend against SBs. And it happens regularly.

I'm tired of pretending analytics means you don't have to still play the game. Stuff like this has mattered for 150 years. It still does. 

I think the overall problem with analytics is this.  Remember in the movie Moneyball with Billy Bean (Brad Pitt) said.  If we play like the Yankees in here, (scouting and development), then we will lose to the Yankees out there, (actual games).  So that was a baseball guy teaming up with an analytics guy to come up with a plan to do things differently than the Yankees/rich clubs.  So now the Yankees play moneyball, and use analytics to build their teams.  Now the Twins also are using analytics to build their team.  The problem comes when you try to build the same types of teams through analytics.  I feel like the teams that don't have the big money to spend like the Yankees and Dodgers etc......  They can't be trying to play the same moneyball that the big spenders are playing.  So over the last 5 - 6 years the Twins should have been going after say Stolen bases while the Yankees didn't care about those.  Then those players that provide stolen bases are cheaper than the guys hitting 40 homeruns.  Now that the ball is changing and possibly changing the game a lot of the teams are going to start going after stolen bases and now, over time, stolen bases will get expensive.  At that point in time the small market teams will need to identify something that the other teams are not targeting.  So a lot of MLB is being controlled by the computer geek guy who is just looking at analytics.  Where they probably need to team up with some better baseball guys too in order to identify what this or that organization can do differently than the Yankees to challenge them.  If they do analytics the same as the Yankees then the Yankees will outspend them to get ahead.

[KirbyDome89]

23 hours ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

The sabermetrics will tell you that stolen base attempts are not worth it unless you succeed at least 75% of the time. In other words, if you succeed less than 75% of the time you actually hurt your chances of scoring runs overall. A stolen base is a positive play; a caught stealing is a much more negative play. That's the issue. This team has no real speed outside of Buxton and maybe Gordon. I don't count Cave since he should never be on the field except as a late inning pinch runner. Baldelli being true to his computer doesn't like to try to steal bases with anyone else.  Part of it is the talent we have, but I agree that part of it is a lack of emphasis in the Minors and in drafting so we have no guys with experience or with the physical tools.  

By the way, none of this excuses our inability to advance runners with productive outs. That's just bad baseball and bad coaching.  

I think this is the larger problem. Their approach at the plate with RISP doesn't change. Hitting behind the runner is nonexistent, but what baffles me more is that in the age of launch angle we don't even have guys advancing on productive fly ball outs. 

The offensive philosophy feels a lot like "pitch to contact," in that they've decided on a direction with little to no deviation. 

[Unwinder]

3 hours ago, Trov said:

For example, does it look at with 0 outs, and a sinker ball pitcher with a slow hitter, what are the odds of a double play, and compare those to the risk reward of a stolen base?  I mean if say the hitter will hit into a double play, or a deep fly on say 75% of at bats, which will either get 2 outs or keep runner at 1st, how does that impact the chance of scoring a run versus say, a 70% chance you steal the base?  

My point is, there may be times that the 75% does not hold true in that particular situation, but only look at the difference in scoring a run from 2nd base versus 1st. Analytics has taken the individual game situations out of the picture in my opinion. 

All of these factors are stats that are pretty easy to measure and plug into an equation that'll tell you the most advantageous choice. What you're describing here is more analytics, not less.

[old nurse]

Older data but somebody might find it interesting

https://batflipsandnerds.com/2018/11/03/analytics-and-its-effects-on-the-mlb-the-stolen-base/