3 Reasons the Twins Farm System Ranking Continues to Drop

[Cody Christie]

The Twins farm system continues to drop in national rankings, so should fans be concerned about the organization's future? Here are three reasons why the system continues to drop.

National rankings of a team's farm systems can be taken with a grain of salt. A lot of hope and high expectations are tied to the team's top prospects, but most fans will focus on whether or not the big-league team is consistently winning. Front offices must find a balance between building homegrown talent and trading for pieces that can help the current roster. 

Baseball America updated its farm system rankings based on changes from this year's draft and the trade deadline. Minnesota's system ranked 25th, the team's lowest ranking since 2017. Baseball American and MLB Pipeline have three Twins prospects in their top 100, including Brooks Lee, Royce Lewis, and Emmanuel Rodriguez. So, why did the Twins drop so much?

Trades
Minnesota was active at the 2022 trade deadline by dealing away some of the organization's most improved prospects. Spencer Steer, Cade Povich, Christian Encarnacion-Strand, and Steven Hajjar were all top-30 prospects in the system. Last winter, the Twins also traded Chase Petty, the team's 2021 first-round pick, to acquire Sonny Gray. Losing that kind of talent will hurt any organization's farm system ranking. Luckily, there are some obvious reasons why Minnesota's ranking dropped. 

Under 25 Big-League Players
When looking at the health of an organization, it's essential to look at young players that are no longer prospects but are impacting the big-league roster. The Twins have gotten plenty of production this season from players that are 25 years old or younger. During his rookie campaign, Jose Miranda emerged as a middle-of-the-order bat. On the pitching side, Jhoan Duran completely altered how the team approaches late-inning pitching situations. However, the list of players that are 25 or younger doesn't stop there. 

Gilberto Celestino, a 23-year-old, has allowed the Twins to give Byron Buxton more regular days off from center field. Cole Sands, Josh Winder, and Jovani Moran have impacted the team's rotation and bullpen. Trevor Larnach and Alex Kirilloff have shown how good their bats can be when they are healthy. Even regulars like Ryan Jeffers and Luis Arraez are in their age-25 season. Obviously, the Twins will need to continue to see continued development from these players while they help the team win. 

Injuries and Underperformance
Injuries to key prospects are another reason the team's ranking continues to drop. Royce Lewis, Emmanuel Rodriguez, and Matt Canterino are all out for the year. Lewis was already impacting the big-league roster before undergoing his second ACL surgery in the last two seasons. Rodriguez had a breakout season before suffering a knee injury on a slide. Canterino's elbow health has been an issue throughout his professional career, and the hope is that Tommy John surgery will get him back on track. All three players should return at some point during the 2023 season. 

Multiple top prospects have also underperformed during the 2022 campaign. Austin Martin was widely considered one of the organization's top prospects after he was acquired as part of the Jose Berrios trade. In 65 Double-A games, he is hitting .244/.372/.306 (.678) with 11 extra-base hits. Minnesota added Jordan Balazovic to the 40-man roster last winter, but he has struggled throughout the 2022 season. In 15 Triple-A appearances, he has a 9.26 ERA with a 2.17 WHIP across 45 2/3 innings. Both of these players have seen their prospect stock drop significantly. 

Luckily, the Twins are keeping their winning window open despite the perceived talent drop in the farm system. Minnesota's trades have added controllable talent to the big-league roster, and the team has plenty of young talent up-and-down the roster. 

Are you concerned about the farm system's drop in national rankings? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. 

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[mikelink45]

Yes, I am concerned.  We gave away a lot in trades and those players we acquired need to give us real value in the short term since they are replacing long term assets.  Balazovic has regressed in a way that has me puzzled.  The minor league pitching has a long way to go to being the asset we need and with Kiriloff and Larnach out our OF replacements are slim.  The call up of Cave and Beckham did not harm the minors, but have done nothing to help the majors either.  

I would love to see an article on who is next - which minor leaguers are most prepared to be the next call ups.  If I am reading things right - it should be Varland pitching and Helman instead of Cave for right handed OF, and Contrares instead of Beckham (or Palacio). I look forward to your thoughts.

[beckmt]

Rankings mean little if the top prospects are very upper level.  Twins have added 3 top prospects from this year's draft.  I am hoping Brooks Lee might make it in 2 - 3 years.  We don't know why, but a lot of prospects also don't work out, so take these rankings with a grain of salt.  Pittsburg with there finishes the last 30 years should have a top flight farm system, they do not.  

The one thing I am concerned about is development, since the Twins have a hard time developing pitchers.  That has to change. 

[stringer bell]

1 hour ago, mikelink45 said:

Yes, I am concerned.  We gave away a lot in trades and those players we acquired need to give us real value in the short term since they are replacing long term assets.  Balazovic has regressed in a way that has me puzzled.  The minor league pitching has a long way to go to being the asset we need and with Kiriloff and Larnach out our OF replacements are slim.  The call up of Cave and Beckham did not harm the minors, but have done nothing to help the majors either.  

I would love to see an article on who is next - which minor leaguers are most prepared to be the next call ups.  If I am reading things right - it should be Varland pitching and Helman instead of Cave for right handed OF, and Contrares instead of Beckham (or Palacio). I look forward to your thoughts.

We have 10 days or so until September callups and that is only two players. It is quite possible that no minor leaguer is called up since the Twins have a host of players on the IL who could return (Jeffers, Larnach, Ober, Winder and perhaps Dobnak and/or Maeda. What is left in the minors at this point is really about the future.

I, too, am disappointed with the lack of progress with pitchers, particularly starting pitchers. It is important to remember that the Twins have added Miranda, Ryan (sort of) and Duran from their list of prospects. Also of note is that many of the best prospects are out for the season.

[Linus]

Well let’s also remember Cavaco and Sabato bothe first round picks haven’t done much. Normally they would be leading your list right now. 

[RJA]

Good article.  I would add a 4th--poor choices on round one draft picks. I think both Cavaco and Sabato were very questionable picks.  Interestingly, they are opposite types, with Sabato being a college power hitter with no defensive position, and Cavaco a toolsy player who was all about projection.  Neither choice has worked out (neither did Brent Rooker).  Yes, I know players have different development trajectories (Miranda for example), but I think we should expect much more from first round picks.  If these two were knocking the cover off the ball, our farm system would look much better.  As is, at this point in time, they are not showing a lot. 

[tony&rodney]

The drop in rankings is only concerning if one forgets that the Twins have a fair nucleus of young players as the post notes. While we can hope that Brooks Lee, Royce Lewis, and even Emmanuel Rodriguez are stars soon, the Twins are reasonably set with Jeffers, Kirilloff, Arraez, Miranda, Celestino, and Larnach, while we also have veterans still with some talent like Polanco, Kepler, and Buxton. The Twins could use a stronger catcher and a superstar corner outfielder but they are ok for now. I do think Palacios can play shortstop in MLB and that Wallner could be a fair DH/OF in a few years. I'm not real concerned about the hitting.

The biggest problem with some of the Twins pitching prospects has been their struggles with command. If you watch Balazovic, for example, you see a guy with all the pitches or stuff but he is missing the ability to repeat mechanics (command and control) as well as seeming to get frustrated with his pitches. However, pitching is really difficult and he could still develop into a fine starter. This could be quick or take a few years. Maturity in life comes differently for all of us, in our personal lives as well as in our work and pleasures. So it goes with athletes too and I do think Balazovic can be a very good starting pitcher. One of the things that Cleveland does is get their pitching prospects some time in The Show to see where they must adapt when they invariably return to the minors to work on their sequences. They also use some of these young pitchers in relief before they move to the rotation.We saw this with Civale, Plesac, McKenzie, and Quantrilll, and Sam Hentges may be transitioning next. The Twins have some guys but health is important. Ober, Winder, Balazovic, Varland, and Woods Richardson need to step forward. If they can we can forget where the Twins rank with their prospects.

[saviking]

No, I am not concerned as long as Krilloff and Lewis return to health. I've been waiting for our developing players to hit the big leagues for the last five years and many are here with more to come next year and the year after.

If we had a big league club loaded with older players that were in line to get big pay raises and were relying on our current farm system to replace them I would be very concerned. But with all the young promising players we control for the next 4 years with players like Canterino, Wallner, Julian, Woods Richardson and Lee a year or two away along with Varland, Rodriquez and Miller behind them we have ample ammunition available. 

Add that to the fact we gain 36 million after Correa leaves and having one of the youngest teams in the league means we get great players on the cheap and we will have money to fill in any gaps. 

I follow the box scores of our MLB teams every night. When I do, I don't think a about whether we have the total depth to win the games. I am singularly focused on the players I feel will make it to the league and help our club. Quality over quantity. 

And let's not forget we have a lot of players we just drafted and the next two drafts.

[tony&rodney]

29 minutes ago, RJA said:

Good article.  I would add a 4th--poor choices on round one draft picks. I think both Cavaco and Sabato were very questionable picks.  Interestingly, they are opposite types, with Sabato being a college power hitter with no defensive position, and Cavaco a toolsy player who was all about projection.  Neither choice has worked out (neither did Brent Rooker).  Yes, I know players have different development trajectories (Miranda for example), but I think we should expect much more from first round picks.  If these two were knocking the cover off the ball, our farm system would look much better.  As is, at this point in time, they are not showing a lot. 

This is a good addition. I thought Rooker and Sabato were very questionable choices and Cavaco was quite the gamble. I didn't object to the gamble as much as choosing slow mashers who will not have a position to call home on defense. At least Wallner has a big arm and looks like he could get better with a couple of thousand repetitions in the outfield. 

[Karbo]

The main concern I have is the number of injuries they have suffered. Otherwise I feel a lot of the reason for a lower ranking has to do with most of the top players either getting promoted or traded. The Twins are one of the youngest teams in the league. That tells me that the minor league system is productive. At least on the hitters side.

[nicksaviking]

I’m not concerned. Prospects are replaceable.

But mostly, they’re just a poor predictor anyway. Miranda and Winder were nobodies in the eyes of national rankings until last year. Arraez, Jax, Gordon, Celestino, Ober and Sands were always nobodies.

If “prospects” will get you cheap MLB talented players, keep trading them and rely on the nobodies.

[Trov]

Teams move up and down the list as players get called up or drafted.  The biggest concerns come when you want to make trades that players are not highly thought of.  I mean look at last year we traded for Martin and SWR.  Some said we got great deal, but now, we are talking about how Martin is possibly a bust.  Heading into 2020 Miranda was not on anyone's radar as a top prospect, but then he clicked in 2021 after minors got back and now talking about possible rookie of year. 

Prospects will rise and fall, but until they prove it in MLB all prospect ranks are good for is what other teams may think of certain players.  It is possible every one of the guys we traded away in the last year do not pan out for the teams we went them to. 

The biggest concern is if year in year out you are in lower range but to drop after making a ton of trades is not surprising. 

[MABB1959]

2 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

while we also have veterans still with some talent like Polanco, Kepler, and Buxton.

Kepler?

[bean5302]

It's not concerning to me if the Twins make a playoff run this year. 

[Brandon]

Andy MacPhail (the GM before Terry Ryan and if the 2 World Series Champions). Once said the goal of a small market team like the Twins is to develop and promote 2-3 players per year to the team..  With the prospects we have, we can continue to do this.  Also it’s not like we need a big crop to develop for next year as we will be competitive at least that long.  In 2024 let’s revisit the rankings.  That’s when it’s likely going to have some relevance again. 

[wsnydes]

Context is needed here.  As others have noted, the upper tier of the prospects are now producing with the big league club.  

That said, hopefully those prospects on the IL can return and produce that they can develop and back fill the roster next year.

[weitz41]

I'm not overly concerned about the overall rankings. The back half of these individual rankings are kinda a crap shoot and someone ranked 75 on one could be 125 on another. The top 10 I'm more focused on as those are expected to be our difference makers. If I look at MLBs top 10 for the Twins I feel really good about our system. A couple other things I'd like to mention is the Twins 2020 draft has, other then Raya, been a dud and the 2021 draft most of the 1st 5 rounds have been traded for current Twins players. Also look at Baseball reference for the average team age. The Twins have the 5th youngest roster at 26.9 years old in MLB. The only teams younger and in the hunt for the playoff spot are the Guardians (when's the last time they signed a veteran player?) and the Blue Jays.  Close to 1/2 of our 40 man has less then 2 years of XP in MLB and most are our prospects. No need to be concerned. 

I'm more concerned about why mlb network has to only show games with NY or California as part of the teams description...I live in Wisconsin so Bally only seems to have Brewers or White Sox...

[KirbyDome89]

Am I concerned about the farm ranking? No

Am I concerned about the continued inability to develop pitching? Absolutely. 

[h2oface]

Ah, the Austin Martin hype. Another big K by the FO.

[nicksaviking]

1 hour ago, KirbyDome89 said:

Am I concerned about the farm ranking? No

Am I concerned about the continued inability to develop pitching? Absolutely. 

Ryan, Duran, Winder, Jax, Ober, Sands?

This sounds like my kids yelling about there not being any cookies in the house after they just got done finishing off a carton of Oreos.

[KirbyDome89]

6 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

Ryan, Duran, Winder, Jax, Ober, Sands?

This sounds like my kids yelling about there not being any cookies in the house after they just got done finishing off a carton of Oreos.

Ryan wasn't a prospect. Great trade, but zero development there.

No way we're seriously counting Sands as anything right? He was terrible as a starter so far and the "hope," is he'll be a useful bullpen piece.

Winder just went on the IL with his 3rd shoulder issue in a calendar year and it's not like he was a rotation lock prior to that.

Ober hasn't been able to stay healthy and handle even a light work load at any level. 30 something innings this year. If they're holding a rotation spot for a perpetually unavailable guy who profiles as a 4-5 at best then we should yell.

Duran. Yep, success, failed starter but still an overall success.

Jax? Eh, if you want to stretch it to help your case sure. I wouldn't, and even his place in the pen was being questioned recently but whatever.

I count zero reliable starters developed and 1, maybe 2 bullpen pieces. This was it, the development year, and its been a disaster. A better analogy would be promising your kids a cookie or two and then handing them a rice cake.

[USAFChief]

1 hour ago, nicksaviking said:

Ryan, Duran, Winder, Jax, Ober, Sands?

This sounds like my kids yelling about there not being any cookies in the house after they just got done finishing off a carton of Oreos.

Seriously?

The "pitching pipeline" propaganda was cool I guess, but it's long past time to give that up.

 

[Rosterman]

Farm systems across the baord have improved and gotten better as each team saw players eliminated, so only the better of the best remain, with many others looking in from the prep and indy leagues hoping for a chance to move back into a system because of injury.

Top 100 players? If every team has three, both leagues are well covered. Some may have an additional.

But if you organization is the 10th best, or the 15th best or even the 25th best, it's like the standings in baseball...how many games separate you from the teams in front or the teams in back.

I like someone mentioning the Twins having a slew of nobodies on the major league roster making noise. That's the bread and butter, how they fit into the team each season and how they produce. You can have three top shortstops in the system, but one great one will eliminate the need of the others, who will then have to battle others equally as good at other positions, perhaps.

It's a ty.gh job, constructing a team every season, looking at short-term and long-term depth, dealing with injuries, and it really is a process of stepping stones to the majors as you face better and better competition along the way. Even the grizzled veteran minor league guys that make up many a high-AAA roster are deserving of play, but they are the eternal 27th roster goy, 9th bullpen arm, the starter fightng for a job while the young prospect passes them by.

[Linus]

57 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

Seriously?

The "pitching pipeline" propaganda was cool I guess, but it's long past time to give that up.

 

This. The vaunted pitching pipeline is turning out to be a garden hose. 

[LastOnePicked]

5 hours ago, KirbyDome89 said:

Am I concerned about the continued inability to develop pitching? Absolutely. 

This. 2022 was supposed to be the make-or-break year for this FO's ability to deliver on the pipeline. It hasn't happened, and there are no promising arms on the horizon. Time to move on.

[h2oface]

Joe Maddon on infrastructure... it just might apply to the Twins as well:

......The veteran skipper is enjoying a rare “summer vacation” of sorts, and would only be interested in a managerial or advisory job with a team that had a “strong balance between the old and the new” approaches to the game, and not too tilted in favor of analytics.

It seems clear that Maddon didn’t feel this balance existed in Anaheim.  In general, Maddon felt the Angels’ “infrastructure needs to be improved….It’s the non-sexy stuff that has to get better. It’s not just bright, shiny objects — they have that.  They need to do the infrastructure better in order to get to where we had been in the past.”  Maddon also implied that the front office tried to have too much of an influence on baseball decisions, thus trying to turn the manager into a “middle man” rather than an actual leader in the clubhouse.

“It’s at the point where some GM should really just put a uniform on and go down to the dugout, or their main analytical membrane, he should go down to the dugout….And what happens is when the performance isn’t what they think it should be, it’s never about the acquisitional process,” Maddon said.  “It’s always about the inability of coaches and managers to get the best out of a player.  And that’s where this tremendous disconnect is formed.”

[nicksaviking]

3 hours ago, USAFChief said:

Seriously?

The "pitching pipeline" propaganda was cool I guess, but it's long past time to give that up.

 

So we were expecting everyone to pop up and be Atlanta circa ‘95?

You’re being unreasonable with the expectations of inexperienced pitchers.

[USAFChief]

34 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

 

You’re being unreasonable with the expectations of inexperienced pitchers.

I'm not sure I was ever the one on the unreasonable side of expectations. 

But I hope I'm proven wrong, and we get some reliably above average pitching next year beyond Duran.

I'd rather not put all our eggs in that basket though.

 

[KirbyDome89]

31 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

So we were expecting everyone to pop up and be Atlanta circa ‘95?

You’re being unreasonable with the expectations of inexperienced pitchers.

Everyone!? 

How about one? Just one starting pitcher in year 6 who can throw 120+ innings and be at least a back end rotation staple. I mean talk about setting a low bar....

[dxpavelka]

I'd feel better about the trajectory of our system if we weren't two years into the Kirillof / Larnach experience and they had more than 800 combined plate appearances at the big league level.