Joe Ryan Has a Slider Problem

[Cody Christie]

Joe Ryan's rookie season has seen some ups and downs, but the Twins need him to continue to adjust as his career progresses. So, where can Ryan improve the most?

 

Joe Ryan was the Twins' Opening Day starter and will be an essential part of the team's pitching staff over the majority of the next decade. Like any pitcher, improvements and adjustments to his repertoire are needed to reach his potential ceiling. Ryan's fastball has continued to be great, but his secondary pitches are the key to unlocking his top-of-the-rotation potential. 

When the Twins acquired Ryan, his minor league numbers were impeccable as he dominated the high minors with high strikeout totals. Most of Ryan's success throughout his professional career has been tied to his fastball usage. So far in 2022, he has used his fastball nearly 60% of the time, while hitters have a 25.1 Whiff% with a .343 SLG. Ryan's fastball will be a vital pitch throughout his career, but he needs to see improvement in his secondary pitches. 

Ryan's second most used pitch is his slider, and that might be where he has the most opportunity to improve. He uses his slider nearly 22% of the time as batters have posted a .267 BA and .514 SLG when facing this pitch. Because Ryan is a righty, his slider is almost exclusively used (92.4% of the time) versus right-handed batters. Teams may put more left-handed batters in the line-up to face Ryan, and this takes away from the effectiveness of his best secondary pitch. 

In Ryan's last start against the Royals, he only needed to throw nine sliders in the outing. Kansas City's line-up isn't exactly a murderer's row of sluggers, but it highlights how little Ryan relies on his secondary pitches. Minnesota's goal is to make the playoffs and win games with Ryan as a key starting pitcher. When facing playoff-caliber line-ups, he will need to rely on his slider more regularly, and it has yet to develop into a solid number two pitch. 

Against left-handed batters, Ryan's most used off-speed pitch is his changeup, with some curveball usage too. His changeup is a below-average pitch, but there have been starts where he uses this pitch more than his slider. Batters have posted a .565 SLG against his changeup for the season because he has an 80% strike rate with this pitch. Overall, he has only thrown his changeup 13.3% of the time, but he's been forced to use it when his slider is off. 

Ryan has never been a prototypical starting pitcher with the high percentage of fastballs that he throws. Before reaching the big leagues, many evaluations of Ryan pointed to the fact that he would need to rely less on his fastball and more on his secondary pitches. Ryan's slider is the key to reaching the next level in his career.

Do you think Ryan needs to see improved results from his off-speed pitches? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. 

 

 

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[twinsfan02]

He will be a career #4 starter. His stuff just is not that good. A lot people are severely over hyping him.

[Doctor Gast]

Ryan is still a rookie. At the start of the season he was strong so his slider was very good. With a very good slider he can mix it up more & sneak a change up. Now after covid, pressure & a heavy starting role, IMO it has paid a toll on his arm, so his slider isn't as sharp as it was plus the added problem of batters getting used to it he has to throw his change up more often taking away the effectiveness of it. Ryan will come back if he's dialed back.

[farmerguychris]

He's still a rookie - hopefully we can get him coached up and that slider will become a real weapon.  If there is anything this pitching coach staff appears to know how to do - it is to maximize a slider's potential as a weapon.  I'm not concerned in the long term and hopeful he'll be in the top half of our rotation for at least a few years.

[bean5302]

This was the reason Nelson Cruz got Joe Ryan in the first place. Tampa Bay isn't exactly inept at developing pitching and they knew Ryan's MLB ceiling was limited even with his great fastball if his secondary offerings didn't improve. The Twins won the Cruz trade no matter how you look at it, but if Ryan cannot improve his secondaries, he'll be stuck as a #4-5 guy for his career.

Still a steal for a few months of Cruz and what will at least amount to a nice MLB career like a Nick Blackburn.

[Bamboo Bat]

1 hour ago, twinsfan02 said:

He will be a career #4 starter. His stuff just is not that good. A lot people are severely over hyping him.

This is a silly statement. After 24 major league starts you have him pigeonholed? OK. 

Just about any team would love a pitcher to come up & have a 3.95 ERA averaging more than 1 strikeout an inning in his first 2/3 of a major league season. Will he be Verlander? Doubtful. But at this early stage is looks like he's going to have a productive career in a major league rotation. 

[LA VIkes Fan]

Agreed. He's already a #3 guy in a solid rotation.

[gman]

Since he came back from covid his command of pitches has not been that sharp. I don't remember what he looked like before his bout with illness. His fastball catches too much of the plate and his breaking pitches too frequently are outside. The good hitting teams make him pay as we've seen.  He needs to find that fine line at the edge of the zones.

[David Maro]

At this time he is Berrios,a thrower not a pitcher. He believes he can throw past the hitters. He leaves a lot of pitches in the zone. Needs a lot of work locating his pitches. Pitching is a art not a let it fly and hope. Rocco made a mistake making him the #1 he is at Best a #3. All the good pitchers learn to pitch in 3 to 5 years. Hopefully he can be one of them.

[Game7-91]

Twins should bring in Sweet Music to teach pitching staff the circle change. Maybe one of the starters especially clicks with it.

[Craig Arko]

Stay out of the White Castles, Joe.

[jkcarew]

I love his delivery and his aggressiveness, his confidence. Still have high hopes for him. 

[DocBauer]

I've never predicted #1 status for him. But then again, I've never really predicted that for anyone. It takes time to refine your stuff, your approach, and gain experience at the ML level. But i do love a lot of things about him and his approach.

Last year, when he debuted, and early in the season this year, there was a lot of talk about his slider, and how good it worked with his FB. It does appear said slider has either lost bite, or command, or both. And maybe the missed time weakened him, or threw off his mechanics, or both. But he does need to figure it out again. I'm willing to bet he does. Talented, smart kid with a bulldog mentality.

Have to remember, he's still a rookie. He's still learning. How could he could be is TBD. But there's room to learn and grow. And I'm OK with that. I think he's going to be a very good part of the rotation for years to come, even if he "only" settles in as a very good #3 type.

[Doctor Gast]

2 hours ago, Game7-91 said:

Twins should bring in Sweet Music to teach pitching staff the circle change. Maybe one of the starters especially clicks with it.

Santana was famous for his circle change up, I didn't know that Viola was good at it too? I've advocated that they should bring in Santana to teach it but maybe Viola would work if Santana won't.

[Stew]

He's a number one now but likely a two or three. Hopefully we use the money we have to get a number one. The only way he is our best pitcher is if he does improve all his pitches.

[Game7-91]

2 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

Santana was famous for his circle change up, I didn't know that Viola was good at it too? I've advocated that they should bring in Santana to teach it but maybe Viola would work if Santana won't.

Oh yeah, Johnny Podres taught him the circle change. Turned into his Cy Young pitch.

[Linus]

10 hours ago, Game7-91 said:

Oh yeah, Johnny Podres taught him the circle change. Turned into his Cy Young pitch.

Viola once threw Dwight Evans 9 straight change ups in one game. Evans had no chance. 

[Karbo]

Probably not a true #1, at least not now. But the kid is a rookie! May have been a mistake to make him an opening day starter, but hindsight is 20/20. I like him as more of a 3 or 4.