Sonny Gray not too happy with Rocco...

[chpettit19]

10 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

MLB owners tried to directly tie compensation to fWAR themselves this past CBA. Owners heavily value WAR because front offices heavily value WAR.

Article from 2019 with quotes from the GMs of the Twins, A's, Giants, Phillies, Blue Jays, D-Backs all affirming the use of WAR as their primary evaluation tool. 
https://www.mlb.com/news/war-embraced-by-mlb-front-offices-c303484670
 

Aside from that, if we go to an older value stat, what teams want to sign a starter who can't go 130+ innings, even these days? A starter is not getting top money averaging 4-5 innings per start and 120 innings per year.

Archer is on pace for 120 innings in 30 starts. I'll be honest, Archer's peripherals early in the season said trotting him out there again was playing with fire... but if he averaged 5 innings, at least he's at 150 on the season.

Bundy is on pace for 150 innings in 30 starts. If Bundy averaged 6 innings, he'd be on track for 180 innings. That's major value added.

Gray is on pace for 120 innings in 24 starts. If Gray averages 6 innings, now it's 144 innings, and he's certainly pitched well enough to get the opportunity to go later.

Even a mediocre pitcher who can eat innings will find themselves with an MLB contract.

 

There were 17 pitchers that threw 180+ innings last year. Only 27 even cracked 170 innings. Twins also had Berrios 121.2 innings after 20 starts last year. So roughly 200 over 33 starts again.

If you go pre-covid 2020 there were 32 in 2019 that made it to 180 innings. 49 made it to 170. Twins had 1 of 15 guys who reached 200 innings that year.

The Twins let good pitchers pitch. The league isn't full of guys going 180+ innings anymore. And pitchers are still getting paid. The Twins aren't hurting careers. Their management of Berrios didn't seem to stop him from getting paid.

 

[TwinsDr2021]

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

You have some data to back this up? It sure doesn't feel like pitcher compensation is going down. Alex Cobb threw 93.1 total innings last year (just over 5 innings a start) while having an ERA under 4 (3.76) for the first time since 2017 and just got a $20 million contract this offseason at the age of 34. Anthony DeSclafani averaged less than 5.5 innings a start last year while going sub-4 era for just the 2nd time since 2016 and got $36 million. Yusei Kikuchi has never had an ERA under 4.41 and averaged 5.4 innings per start last year and got $36 million. James Paxton has never made 30 starts in a season in his career and he got $10 million after pitching to just over 5.1 innings a start back in 2020 and missing basically all of last season. As has already been pointed out, Sonny Gray hasn't been significantly over 5 innings a start in 3 years and has made 30 starts in a season once since 2015. The Twins aren't hurting Sonny Gray's career, his inability to stay healthy and throw innings for 7 freaking years is hurting his career.

What you said is kind of misleading, Cobb signed a two year contract for 20 million, DeSclafani signed a three year contract for 36 million, Kikuchi also signed a 3 year contract for 36 million with the first year being 16 and the next two 10. Paxton signed a 1 year 10 million deal with a club option of 13 million or 4 million.

JA Happ signed with the Twins for 8 million. One could argue pitches that are limited in innings are limited in earning, no? It seems the going rate for a good 5 inning pitcher is around 12 million, it seems much, much higher for guys that god longer and are better.

 

FYI, I am not arguing for or against the Twins philosophy just pointing out facts.

[GNess]

It remains unclear to me why Duran couldn't be a starter in the future? Yes, he has a chance to be a dominate reliever, but quality starters seemingly have more value  - Duran could be a top of the rotation type (#1 or #2) with his arm/stuff.

He seems to have good stamina and up until this season he was a starter.

[FlyingFinn]

1 hour ago, KirbyDome89 said:

SWR has been a mess...again.

Simply not true on the majority of his starts this year. Just moved up to St. Paul at age 21.

[chpettit19]

2 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

What you said is kind of misleading, Cobb signed a two year contract for 20 million, DeSclafani signed a three year contract for 36 million, Kikuchi also signed a 3 year contract for 36 million with the first year being 16 and the next two 10. Paxton signed a 1 year 10 million deal with a club option of 13 million or 4 million.

JA Happ signed with the Twins for 8 million. One could argue pitches that are limited in innings are limited in earning, no? It seems the going rate for a good 5 inning pitcher is around 12 million, it seems much, much higher for guys that god longer and are better.

 

FYI, I am not arguing for or against the Twins philosophy just pointing out facts.

Not misleading. Correa is going to opt out of 35.1 million next year. Not with the intent of getting 36 million a year moving forward, but with the intent of getting more than 70 million in his total deal. The contracts in MLB are guaranteed and the total amount is what the players are playing for.

Yes, guys who are better get more. And they're also the ones who teams allow to go longer. That's kind of the entire point here. The Twins aren't doing anything outrageous with starter usage, or "hurting careers." The guys they have would be used more or less the same on almost every team. It's provable as Gray and Mahle are both being used the same as they were with Cincy. Starter innings across the league are down. Drastically. The league is putting in rules to attempt to force teams to get them back up. But the compensation for starting pitching isn't going down. That's the point. Bean argued the Twins not letting Gray, etc. go longer is "hurting their careers" because they won't earn as much when it simply isn't true. If Gray were Scherzer and the Twins were still pulling him after 5/6/7 innings and less than 90 pitches then that claim could be made. But Gray isn't Scherzer.

[chpettit19]

6 minutes ago, GNess said:

It remains unclear to me why Duran couldn't be a starter in the future? Yes, he has a chance to be a dominate reliever, but quality starters seemingly have more value  - Duran could be a top of the rotation type (#1 or #2) with his arm/stuff.

He seems to have good stamina and up until this season he was a starter.

It will be very interesting to see what they do with him the next couple years and how seriously they seem to consider putting him back in the rotation. I hope the idea isn't written off yet.

[Mark G]

25 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

I agree that there seems to be a real lack of ability to adjust the plan in season, and it's a real problem. Why are we using just the last 2 years as the frame of reference? The FO and Rocco have all been here for at least twice that time. I think the last 2 years have emphasized that they're more cautious than the average team with bringing pitchers back from the 2020 shortened season, but we shouldn't ignore previous seasons just because of these last 2. In 2019 those 307 homeruns came in the same season as the Twins starters throwing the 6th most innings of any staff in baseball. 6th most. Rocco and the FO clearly didn't mind letting pitchers go a little further back then. So what's changed?

As for Gray, he hasn't been going deeper than 5 innings per start for 3 years now. He uses a ton of pitches and is largely to blame for many of his short starts this year. He was basically right at 5 innings a start in 2020 and 2021 with the Reds and that's where he is now. And he goes on the IL every year. He's not some workhorse being used totally wrong this year.

Just as an explanation, I use 3 years in particular because Molitor was here the first two years of the Falvine regime, and I kind of throw out '20 due to only 60 games.  So, '19, 21, and 22 are the years I look at where the three of them have been here together for a full season.  I noticed '19 as well, with pitchers going deeper into games, but I take into account the number of runs that would allow that with the 307 home runs.  Take away those runs, and you have closer games, and thus the tendency to not trust your starters to get you through tight situations.  The last two seasons, counting this season, the team has scored 3 or fewer runs into the 40ish percentage of the time (this year it is 44-45 percent).  As such, they tend to not take a chance with starters as much as they did when they scored more runs.  Even Berrios, who was, by all standards today, a work horse, had 2 complete games out of 64 starts his last three years here before the trade (the three he had under these 3).  And no one else has had a complete game in that time.  I didn't take the time to see how many 8 inning starts there might of been, but did I need to?  Averaging 6 plus innings a start, or 5 innings a start depends on the run support you receive, at least that is my extremely humble opinion.  But not letting ANY starter go deep, if not the distance, is a dogged philosophy that has no room for exceptions.  Works for some, but not others.  

[chpettit19]

2 minutes ago, Mark G said:

Just as an explanation, I use 3 years in particular because Molitor was here the first two years of the Falvine regime, and I kind of throw out '20 due to only 60 games.  So, '19, 21, and 22 are the years I look at where the three of them have been here together for a full season.  I noticed '19 as well, with pitchers going deeper into games, but I take into account the number of runs that would allow that with the 307 home runs.  Take away those runs, and you have closer games, and thus the tendency to not trust your starters to get you through tight situations.  The last two seasons, counting this season, the team has scored 3 or fewer runs into the 40ish percentage of the time (this year it is 44-45 percent).  As such, they tend to not take a chance with starters as much as they did when they scored more runs.  Even Berrios, who was, by all standards today, a work horse, had 2 complete games out of 64 starts his last three years here before the trade (the three he had under these 3).  And no one else has had a complete game in that time.  I didn't take the time to see how many 8 inning starts there might of been, but did I need to?  Averaging 6 plus innings a start, or 5 innings a start depends on the run support you receive, at least that is my extremely humble opinion.  But not letting ANY starter go deep, if not the distance, is a dogged philosophy that has no room for exceptions.  Works for some, but not others.  

That explanation makes a lot of sense and seems awfully reasonable to me.

Jose Berrios was on pace for 200 innings in 33 starts with the Twins last year before he was traded. Complete games aren't a stat that means much of anything anymore. There's been 22 all of this season with only 2 guys having more than 1. That's my point in this thread, though. The philosophy isn't "not letting ANY starter go deep," it's not letting THESE starters go deeper because they aren't that good. Gray and Ryan were both getting 6 or 7 innings a start at the beginning of the year when they got off to a great start. Now they've both had IL stints and haven't been as good when on the mound so they aren't getting 6 or 7 innings consistently. Gray went back out for the 7th last night and immediately allowed 2 base runners in a 3 run game. When is Rocco supposed to take him out? After he gives up runs in the 7th?

The runs scored definitely effects the pitcher usage, but I don't see how that should change our feelings on the organizational philosophy of pitcher usage. To me it just means they need to get better at scoring runs.

I don't love the strategy. I miss the days of guys going 7,8,9 innings in a start. I want the Twins to get more guys that are good enough to do that and let them do it. I don't see anyone on the team, or at the top of the system, who has that ability so my hope is a big FA signing (not holding my breath). 

[TwinsDr2021]

5 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Not misleading. Correa is going to opt out of 35.1 million next year. Not with the intent of getting 36 million a year moving forward, but with the intent of getting more than 70 million in his total deal. The contracts in MLB are guaranteed and the total amount is what the players are playing for.

Yes, guys who are better get more. And they're also the ones who teams allow to go longer. That's kind of the entire point here. The Twins aren't doing anything outrageous with starter usage, or "hurting careers." The guys they have would be used more or less the same on almost every team. It's provable as Gray and Mahle are both being used the same as they were with Cincy. Starter innings across the league are down. Drastically. The league is putting in rules to attempt to force teams to get them back up. But the compensation for starting pitching isn't going down. That's the point. Bean argued the Twins not letting Gray, etc. go longer is "hurting their careers" because they won't earn as much when it simply isn't true. If Gray were Scherzer and the Twins were still pulling him after 5/6/7 innings and less than 90 pitches then that claim could be made. But Gray isn't Scherzer.

I was saying the numbers you threw out for those starters without adding the years was misleading. You are not wrong on Gray he hasn't been much more than a 5 inning pitcher since 2019 and his numbers would probably be closer to Ryan or Bundy if he was asked to go another inning each start.

My point isn't to say the Twins are doing it right or wrong, just that not everybody does what the Twins do. Would any Twin pitcher have came out in the 6th like Lynch did today? In a 1-0 game today Philly and the Reds used 5 total pitchers any chance any Twins pitcher would have came out for the 7th like both did in that game? Or both pitchers starting the 7th in a 0 - 0 game between the Orioles and Jay?or would the Twins been closer to what the Cubs and Nats did today?

I am betting 8.9 times out of ten it is option 3.

[KirbyDome89]

8 minutes ago, FlyingFinn said:

Simply not true on the majority of his starts this year. Just moved up to St. Paul at age 21.

3.78 FIP repeating AA in his 5th (4th?) year as a professional. He was flat out terrible in May and the few starts in June. That's half of his innings this season. Yeah, the last couple starts haven't been as disastrous, so I guess there's that. 

[SwainZag]

11 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

I was saying the numbers you threw out for those starters without adding the years was misleading. You are not wrong on Gray he hasn't been much more than a 5 inning pitcher since 2019 and his numbers would probably be closer to Ryan or Bundy if he was asked to go another inning each start.

My point isn't to say the Twins are doing it right or wrong, just that not everybody does what the Twins do. Would any Twin pitcher have came out in the 6th like Lynch did today? In a 1-0 game today Philly and the Reds used 5 total pitchers any chance any Twins pitcher would have came out for the 7th like both did in that game? Or both pitchers starting the 7th in a 0 - 0 game between the Orioles and Jay?or would the Twins been closer to what the Cubs and Nats did today?

I am betting 8.9 times out of ten it is option 3.

Gray came out for the 7th in this game.  He gave up a double and a walk to leadoff the inning, he threw 92 pitches. 

In the Cin/Phil game today, Lodolo went 1-2-3 in the 7th for Cincy and was done after 7 innings and 95 pitches.  Suarez walked the 1st guy he faced in the 7th, then retired the next 3 batters.  His day was done after 7 innings and 98 pitches.  

It's basically identical to what the Twins did with Gray, except they pulled him after two batters reached.  

In the BAL/TOR game today, Voth was pulled after 86 pitches in 6 shutout innings and Stripling pitched to 2 batters in the 7th, the single ended the no-hitter and then he got the 2nd batter to ground out.  He was pulled after 6.1 shutout innings and 72 pitches.  Are these any different than things the Twins are doing?

[chpettit19]

3 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

I was saying the numbers you threw out for those starters without adding the years was misleading. You are not wrong on Gray he hasn't been much more than a 5 inning pitcher since 2019 and his numbers would probably be closer to Ryan or Bundy if he was asked to go another inning each start.

My point isn't to say the Twins are doing it right or wrong, just that not everybody does what the Twins do. Would any Twin pitcher have came out in the 6th like Lynch did today? In a 1-0 game today Philly and the Reds used 5 total pitchers any chance any Twins pitcher would have came out for the 7th like both did in that game? Or both pitchers starting the 7th in a 0 - 0 game between the Orioles and Jay?or would the Twins been closer to what the Cubs and Nats did today?

I am betting 8.9 times out of ten it is option 3.

No, not everybody does it the way the Twins do, but they're not far off from the vast majority of teams.

Orioles v Jays
Bal: Voth 6 innings, 86 pitches, 0 runs allowed, pulled
Tor: Stripling 6.1 innings, 72 pitches, 0 runs allowed, pulled
Yeah, that sounds almost exactly like 2 pitcher lines the Twins would have.

Reds v Phillies
Cin: Lodolo 7 innings, 98 pitches, 0 runs allowed, pulled
Phi: Suarez 7 innings, 95 pitches, 0 runs allowed, pulled
Eh, Rocco probably pulls each guy after 6. But to be fair the Reds aren't playing for anything so letting their young arm get another inning isn't quite the same as Rocco pulling a guy in a pennant race. Which is the same response I have for Lynch. Different goals for the Reds and Royals than there are for the Twins right now.

That Orioles v Jays game kind of proves my point, though. 2 teams in the playoff hunt pulled their pitchers with fewer than 90 and fewer than 80 pitches in the middle of shutouts. The boards on TD would be lit up calling for Rocco's head if he did that and they'd be claiming other teams wouldn't do such a thing. When they clearly do.

[TwinsDr2021]

Just now, SwainZag said:

Gray came out for the 7th in this game.  He gave up a double and a walk to leadoff the inning, he threw 92 pitches. 

In the Cin/Phil game today, Lodolo went 1-2-3 in the 7th for Cincy and was done after 7 innings and 95 pitches.  Suarez walked the 1st guy he faced in the 7th, then retired the next 3 batters.  His day was done after 7 innings and 98 pitches.  

It's basically identical to what the Twins did with Gray, except they pulled him after two batters reached.  

So the 1.1 of the time, got it. Lodolo had already faced 24 batters and Suarez 23 and Gray only 20 so not exactly the same thing, and the Twins were winnings so maybe the 1.1?

[SwainZag]

2 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

No, not everybody does it the way the Twins do, but they're not far off from the vast majority of teams.

Orioles v Jays
Bal: Voth 6 innings, 86 pitches, 0 runs allowed, pulled
Tor: Stripling 6.1 innings, 72 pitches, 0 runs allowed, pulled
Yeah, that sounds almost exactly like 2 pitcher lines the Twins would have.

Reds v Phillies
Cin: Lodolo 7 innings, 98 pitches, 0 runs allowed, pulled
Phi: Suarez 7 innings, 95 pitches, 0 runs allowed, pulled
Eh, Rocco probably pulls each guy after 6. But to be fair the Reds aren't playing for anything so letting their young arm get another inning isn't quite the same as Rocco pulling a guy in a pennant race. Which is the same response I have for Lynch. Different goals for the Reds and Royals than there are for the Twins right now.

That Orioles v Jays game kind of proves my point, though. 2 teams in the playoff hunt pulled their pitchers with fewer than 90 and fewer than 80 pitches in the middle of shutouts. The boards on TD would be lit up calling for Rocco's head if he did that and they'd be claiming other teams wouldn't do such a thing. When they clearly do.

Lol, we must think alike.

[Greglw3]

5 hours ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

I would expect free agents and their Agents know what the Twins philosophy is and IMO that would keep away the top free agents from signing here and why the Twins end up signing who they do. Got to assume Gray and Mahle have talked about this since he got here and based on the interview I agree with @Battle ur tail off that Gray won't be a Twin in 24 unless things change, and there is always the chance he demands to be traded this off season to a team he believes will allow him to the be the pitcher he thinks he is. )

IMO this could be one of the reasons Berrios isn't a Twin. I believe this front office does so well in trading for pitchers is because they see pitchers that they believe are being overexposed by other teams and think they can reduce their load and make them great 5 innings pitchers.

I also believe that is why they won't pay "big" money to starters, why pay a starter 20 million a year to average less than 6 innings, it just doesn't make sense and how to they sell their philosophy to the rest of the starting staff if they let one pitcher do things they don't let the others.

I think this whole "organizational philosophy" of having pitchers just go 4 or 5 innings is something Falvine/and or Rocco cooked up this last offseason. In 58 years as a Twins fan, I don’t remember anything remotely like this and yes, I agree, it’s nuts. Rinky dink. It’s easy to see why Gray would be dissatisfied and no other top pitcher would want to sign.

They should let the hitters tell when a pitcher is gassed and have someone up and get the struggling starter before the game’s blown. If the starter’s pitching well, then let them go 9 or until they weaken. My two cents.

[chpettit19]

1 minute ago, SwainZag said:

Lol, we must think alike.

But you type faster!

[TwinsDr2021]

10 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

No, not everybody does it the way the Twins do, but they're not far off from the vast majority of teams.

Orioles v Jays
Bal: Voth 6 innings, 86 pitches, 0 runs allowed, pulled
Tor: Stripling 6.1 innings, 72 pitches, 0 runs allowed, pulled
Yeah, that sounds almost exactly like 2 pitcher lines the Twins would have.

That Orioles v Jays game kind of proves my point, though. 2 teams in the playoff hunt pulled their pitchers with fewer than 90 and fewer than 80 pitches in the middle of shutouts. The boards on TD would be lit up calling for Rocco's head if he did that and they'd be claiming other teams wouldn't do such a thing. When they clearly do.

I will give you this game is similiar to the twins because both guys were pulled after 20 and 21 batters faced, And Stripling being pulled is very similar to Gray.

EDIT: Which I have said over and over it is fairly common what the Twins are doing, it just seem they are doing it to the extreme or with all of their pitchers.

[prouster]

Maybe Sonny Gray doesn’t want to be a Major League pitcher, because this is the direction the whole league is moving. 

[Greglw3]

38 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Not misleading. Correa is going to opt out of 35.1 million next year. Not with the intent of getting 36 million a year moving forward, but with the intent of getting more than 70 million in his total deal. The contracts in MLB are guaranteed and the total amount is what the players are playing for.

Yes, guys who are better get more. And they're also the ones who teams allow to go longer. That's kind of the entire point here. The Twins aren't doing anything outrageous with starter usage, or "hurting careers." The guys they have would be used more or less the same on almost every team. It's provable as Gray and Mahle are both being used the same as they were with Cincy. Starter innings across the league are down. Drastically. The league is putting in rules to attempt to force teams to get them back up. But the compensation for starting pitching isn't going down. That's the point. Bean argued the Twins not letting Gray, etc. go longer is "hurting their careers" because they won't earn as much when it simply isn't true. If Gray were Scherzer and the Twins were still pulling him after 5/6/7 innings and less than 90 pitches then that claim could be made. But Gray isn't Scherzer.

On what basis do you say Correa is going to opt out of 35.1 million next year? Do you have a link with quotes fro Carlos, Falvine or Boras? Otherwise you’re just guessing. Jon Heyman did the exact same thing in the New York Post a few days back. He cited no sources, no quotes, no insight, nothing. Just made a statement with no backing. Bad journalism 101.

Since CC has said he likes it in Minnesota, he seems to have tremendous camaraderie with his teammates and he was quoted as saying he’s consider an extension with the Twins, what’s the logical counterargument? Also 35.1 million is a lot of money. Who’s going to top that? Not one team was willing to do it this season. I think it’s imperative they Sign him. They won’t be replacing the platinum glove winner with anybody better.

[chpettit19]

Just now, Greglw3 said:

On what basis do you say Correa is going to opt out of 35.1 million next year? Do you have a link with quotes fro Carlos, Falvine or Boras? Otherwise you’re just guessing. Jon Heyman did the exact same thing in the New York Post a few days back. He cited no sources, no quotes, no insight, nothing. Just made a statement with no backing. Bad journalism 101.

Since CC has said he likes it in Minnesota, he seems to have tremendous camaraderie with his teammates and he was quoted as saying he’s consider an extension with the Twins, what’s the logical counterargument? Also 35.1 million is a lot of money. Who’s going to top that? Not one team was willing to do it this season. I think it’s imperative they Sign him. They won’t be replacing the platinum glove winner with anybody better.

We're all just guessing. What bet do you want to make on Correa opting out cuz I'll take it? If Correa isn't hurt between now and the end of the season he's opting out. Opting out doesn't mean he won't be back, but he's not picking up his player option.

Yes, 35.1 million is a lot of money. You seem to have just ignored the rest of my paragraph there where I explained why he'll opt out. Because both 35.1 and 70 are way less than 300 or 250 or 200 or 150 or 100. And he will get somewhere between 100 and 325 million guaranteed dollars if he opts out after the year. He doesn't care about the AAV, he cares about the contract total. And he'll get way more than 70 from somebody.

[Craig Arko]

On the other hand, Gray isn’t suffering from right shoulder fatigue. Perhaps the way he’s been managed makes a difference. 

[SkyBlueWaters]

3 hours ago, KirbyDome89 said:

SWR has been a mess...again.

I'm curious to know why you think Simeon Wood Richardson is a mess. He's got the third most innings pitched for Wichita, his ERA at 3.06 may not be fantastic, but it's one of the better ones on the team, his WHIP of 1.160 is also one of the better on the team, and a SO9 of 9.8 isn't too ,,, messy. Is it?

At 21 he's the youngest pitcher on the team by two years, and most of the guys listed are 24-27. It looks like he's putting up those numbers against guys a good bit older than he is. 

What don't you like?

[KirbyDome89]

6 minutes ago, SkyBlueWaters said:

I'm curious to know why you think Simeon Wood Richardson is a mess. He's got the third most innings pitched for Wichita, his ERA at 3.06 may not be fantastic, but it's one of the better ones on the team, his WHIP of 1.160 is also one of the better on the team, and a SO9 of 9.8 isn't too ,,, messy. Is it?

At 21 he's the youngest pitcher on the team by two years, and most of the guys listed are 24-27. It looks like he's putting up those numbers against guys a good bit older than he is. 

What don't you like?

Responded to this exact same post upthread

[Whitey333]

Great comments by all.  There's a couple of you that should either be hired as the manager or general manager because you have all the answers.  I don't have any answers just opinion.  This is what happens when you sign too many dumpster sale starters and relievers.  It's the great FO that signed those pitchers and then try to convince fans that they are all good.  Common sense says if you use 4-5 pitchers every night your bullpen won't be able to hold up.  The bullpen has lost/ blown 24 games this year.  Perhaps if we had starters, and an organizational philosophy, to pitch an extra inning or two more regularly and if we had a stronger pen from the start we would have been better off.  Twins are hanging in there but realistically with a stronger pitching staff we should easily be a out 8 games ahead right now.  Too many missed opportunities.

[SkyBlueWaters]

5 minutes ago, Whitey333 said:

 Twins are hanging in there but realistically with a stronger pitching staff we should easily be a out 8 games ahead right now.  Too many missed opportunities.

Agreed. What's most intriguing about this for me is that Falvey was brought in from Cleveland with the buzz that he was supposed to be great at developing pitching, right?  What happened?

Did he get the credit for a pitching pipeline designed and built by others? 

Right now we've got an offense and fielders capable of playing well into October. But when I look at the team pitching stats for the other teams likely to show up in the playoffs--in particular the front ends, the aces leading those staffs, and the bullpens protecting their leads, I'm not liking how the Twins stack up. 

Hate to say it. 

[h2oface]

3 hours ago, SwainZag said:

Gray came out for the 7th in this game.  He gave up a double and a walk to leadoff the inning, he threw 92 pitches. 

In the Cin/Phil game today, Lodolo went 1-2-3 in the 7th for Cincy and was done after 7 innings and 95 pitches.  Suarez walked the 1st guy he faced in the 7th, then retired the next 3 batters.  His day was done after 7 innings and 98 pitches.  

It's basically identical to what the Twins did with Gray, except they pulled him after two batters reached.  

In the BAL/TOR game today, Voth was pulled after 86 pitches in 6 shutout innings and Stripling pitched to 2 batters in the 7th, the single ended the no-hitter and then he got the 2nd batter to ground out.  He was pulled after 6.1 shutout innings and 72 pitches.  Are these any different than things the Twins are doing?

He gave up two singles in the 7th. The 2nd and 3rd hits of the game! Had 10 Ks. 1 walk (to lead off the second and then struck out 3 in a row with called 3rd strikes.)

Hey, it turned out fine, but I give Gray at least one more batter there, myself, especially knowing his feelings. We will never know if he would have handled it as well as Thielbar, but he very well could have. I feel very lucky that Thielbar didn't blow up the game there. We have seen him do it. Plus the later runs made it all academic, but at the time it was the tying run at the plate. I think Gray handled both the pre game and the post game interviews perfect. Just because your kid says that everybody else in doing it, doesn't mean you have to do it the same way as their parents have decided to. Ever. 

[h2oface]

3 hours ago, prouster said:

Maybe Sonny Gray doesn’t want to be a Major League pitcher, because this is the direction the whole league is moving. 

Not the best pitchers. And they didn't get to be the best by bailing out of the games and not building up innings and arm strength. They weren't always the best. But they became the best because they did.

[jkcarew]

The Twins pull guys earlier than most all teams in the league. The differences are ‘slight’…but they matter…even 1 extra out a game over 162 games is very significant.

Having said that, Gray being unhappy with being pulled and saying so is a positive not a negative. He had something to say about a specific situation, and he said it. I’m glad it was said…and it means nothing regarding his or any other FA pitcher signing with the club in the future. My sense is these days there are just as many starters (more?) that like the current trend than that dislike it. Remember Gray is an ‘old’ guy.

[solomon1930]

If he didn't want to get pulled he shouldn't have allowed a couple base runners.  Twins are up only 3 - 0 at that point.

Pulling him was the right call.

[bean5302]

5 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

There were 17 pitchers that threw 180+ innings last year. Only 27 even cracked 170 innings. Twins also had Berrios 121.2 innings after 20 starts last year. So roughly 200 over 33 starts again.

If you go pre-covid 2020 there were 32 in 2019 that made it to 180 innings. 49 made it to 170. Twins had 1 of 15 guys who reached 200 innings that year.

The Twins let good pitchers pitch. The league isn't full of guys going 180+ innings anymore. And pitchers are still getting paid. The Twins aren't hurting careers. Their management of Berrios didn't seem to stop him from getting paid.

 

Oh, I got it. The Twins let "good" pitchers pitch, not pitchers who are pitching well. That makes sense. Not. Maybe the Twins should let pitchers who are pitching well keep pitching... you know, like everybody else in baseball history? 
 

Date	Opp	IP	TBF	R	ER	HR	K/9	BB/9	BABIP	EV	ERA	FIP	xFIP	WHIP
8/13/2022	@LAA	5.0	19	0	0	0	1.8	1.8	0.125	76.4	0.00	3.91	6.57	0.60
8/6/2022	TOR	4.0	18	2	2	1	13.5	2.25	0.400	96.4	4.50	4.11	2.34	1.50
7/31/2022	@SDP	5.0	19	3	3	1	5.4	0	0.200	89	5.40	4.51	4.28	0.80
7/26/2022	@MIL	4.0	21	5	5	2	11.25	4.5	0.417	86.4	11.25	8.61	5.07	2.25
7/16/2022	CHW	5.1	21	3	3	0	5.06	1.69	0.294	88.9	5.06	2.55	5.04	1.13
7/10/2022	@TEX	5.0	22	4	4	0	7.2	3.6	0.375	93.1	7.20	2.71	3.60	1.60
7/4/2022	@CHW	5.0	18	1	1	1	10.8	1.8	0.200	94.4	1.80	3.91	2.49	0.80
6/29/2022	@CLE	5.0	21	3	2	0	1.8	1.8	0.316	92.2	3.60	3.31	6.27	1.40
6/24/2022	COL	6.0	23	1	1	0	3	3	0.211	89.4	1.50	3.45	5.91	1.00
6/18/2022	@ARI	8.0	28	1	1	0	7.88	0	0.190	87.2	1.13	1.36	3.02	0.50
6/9/2022	NYY	4.0	18	4	4	2	2.25	2.25	0.214	93.5	9.00	9.86	6.69	1.50
6/4/2022	@TOR	2.1	17	6	5	2	7.71	3.86	0.500	95.3	19.29	13.83	7.12	3.86
5/30/2022	@DET	6.0	28	4	4	1	4.5	0	0.348	90.1	6.00	4.78	4.58	1.50
5/25/2022	DET	5.2	23	1	1	1	9.53	1.59	0.267	85.1	1.59	3.82	3.35	1.06
5/17/2022	@OAK	3.0	13	0	0	0	9	6	0.250	84	0.00	3.11	5.08	1.33
5/4/2022	@BAL	3.2	23	9	9	2	7.36	4.91	0.563	93.4	22.09	10.20	5.93	3.55
4/29/2022	@TBR	6.0	26	6	6	2	10.5	3	0.333	85.3	9.00	6.11	3.26	1.50
4/23/2022	CHW	5.0	19	0	0	0	7.2	0	0.267	85.4	0.00	1.51	2.99	0.80
4/18/2022	@BOS	5.1	21	1	1	0	10.13	0	0.333	96.2	1.69	0.86	1.97	0.94
4/11/2022	SEA	5.0	18	0	0	0	3.6	1.8	0.067	83.5	0.00	2.91	4.98	0.40