Sonny Gray not too happy with Rocco...

[SwainZag]

1 hour ago, h2oface said:

He gave up two singles in the 7th. The 2nd and 3rd hits of the game! Had 10 Ks. 1 walk (to lead off the second and then struck out 3 in a row with called 3rd strikes.)

Hey, it turned out fine, but I give Gray at least one more batter there, myself, especially knowing his feelings. We will never know if he would have handled it as well as Thielbar, but he very well could have. I feel very lucky that Thielbar didn't blow up the game there. We have seen him do it. Plus the later runs made it all academic, but at the time it was the tying run at the plate. I think Gray handled both the pre game and the post game interviews perfect. Just because your kid says that everybody else in doing it, doesn't mean you have to do it the same way as their parents have decided to. Ever. 

My bad it was two singles.  

Either way, it was lucky Thielbar got out of the inning, or the right move?  If Gray gives up a game tying 3-run HR to the next batter are people applauding Rocco for "letting him fight through it because he was good in the first 6 innings?"  It's so crazy to me that a move like this can work out beautifully like it did, and people still get worked up about it.  Is Gray allowed to be a little upset he didn't get to keep going?  He sure is...but it still doesn't meant it would have been the right move.

[h2oface]

1 hour ago, SwainZag said:

My bad it was two singles.  

Either way, it was lucky Thielbar got out of the inning, or the right move?  If Gray gives up a game tying 3-run HR to the next batter are people applauding Rocco for "letting him fight through it because he was good in the first 6 innings?"  It's so crazy to me that a move like this can work out beautifully like it did, and people still get worked up about it.  Is Gray allowed to be a little upset he didn't get to keep going?  He sure is...but it still doesn't meant it would have been the right move.

Both. It was lucky that Thielbar got out of the innning, instead of performing like he, and the pen, so often in the past have. Credit to Thielbar. If if if. And it was A right move, one that worked this time.  IF IF IF..... if Gray blah blah blah...... we will never know. If Gray struck out the side instead, are people applauding Baldy for letting him finish the inning and saving the pen more? Probably. You can't probably and if because you never gave it a chance to happen. Well, you can if you like. we can if we like, for discussion sake. I am not worked up about it. I just would have given Gray, who deserved it with what he had done, one more batter to see. If he performed as Thielbar did the the next three batters, it still doesnt mean that it would have been the right move to take him out. You just don't know, and never will. This decision worked out. Congratulations to us all.

In the end, there were plenty of runs scored to weather a storm, but you don't know that would have happened IF..... either.

[Mark G]

8 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

That explanation makes a lot of sense and seems awfully reasonable to me.

Jose Berrios was on pace for 200 innings in 33 starts with the Twins last year before he was traded. Complete games aren't a stat that means much of anything anymore. There's been 22 all of this season with only 2 guys having more than 1. That's my point in this thread, though. The philosophy isn't "not letting ANY starter go deep," it's not letting THESE starters go deeper because they aren't that good. Gray and Ryan were both getting 6 or 7 innings a start at the beginning of the year when they got off to a great start. Now they've both had IL stints and haven't been as good when on the mound so they aren't getting 6 or 7 innings consistently. Gray went back out for the 7th last night and immediately allowed 2 base runners in a 3 run game. When is Rocco supposed to take him out? After he gives up runs in the 7th?

The runs scored definitely effects the pitcher usage, but I don't see how that should change our feelings on the organizational philosophy of pitcher usage. To me it just means they need to get better at scoring runs.

I don't love the strategy. I miss the days of guys going 7,8,9 innings in a start. I want the Twins to get more guys that are good enough to do that and let them do it. I don't see anyone on the team, or at the top of the system, who has that ability so my hope is a big FA signing (not holding my breath). 

I get what you are saying as well, with these guys in particular, but there are individual situations where we could (should?) have some flexibility.  During games that we win 9-0 (or somewhere in that ballpark), is when we might be able to let a guy go deeper and save the pen.  But, correct me if I am wrong, the plan is the plan no matter what.  Whether it be pitch counts or times through the line up, we rarely, if ever, stray from the plan  The Gray example was a good one for changing pitchers at that time, but I would bet he would have made that move no matter how many runs we were up; it is simply how he manages and the FO appears to agree (or is it the other way around?).  I do see what you mean about THESE pitchers, but we have had many others over the 3 years, many others, and only Berrios was allowed to complete his game - and only twice.  That is a philosophy that goes beyond any current starting 5 or 6; it is an organizational belief that is not flexible at any point.  So we might just as well look for really good RP's and let them go longer in an outing.  Any starter they sign they will use as they have used every starter they have signed since they got here.  It just is who they are.    

[TwinsDr2021]

15 hours ago, prouster said:

Maybe Sonny Gray doesn’t want to be a Major League pitcher, because this is the direction the whole league is moving. 

Here is the list of pitchers for the Twins that have faced 26 batters in a game. Smeltzer (1), Bundy (3), Gray (1), Ober (1) that is it six for the whole year.

Just yesterday here is the list of pitchers that pitched to at least 26 batters Lodolo, Suarez, Lynch (against the Twins), Contreras, Marquez, Valdez, Lauer, I would guess most people couldn't name half of the teams these elite pitchers pitch for?

But lets move the criteria down to 25 batters faced in a game shall we, the Twins Ober (1), Paddack (0),Smeltzer (2),Archer (0),Bundy (3),Gray (2),Ryan (3) that is 11 for the year, now lets again look just at last night. Remember there were 7 that went 26 or more so will be just adding the guys that faced 25 batters to the list.

Kirby, Quantrill, Scherzer, Odorizzi, Rodon.
There were 15 games yesterday and 12 pitchers faced 25 or more batters and I think we can agree they all are not elite pitchers, the Twins have played 116 games and have 11.

You can do this exercise every day and see the same results, two 2 days ago it was 12 pitchers that faced 25 batters, the Royals have two pitchers in a row do it.

It is funny when people throw out statements like they are true without backing it up.

 

Edit - Mahle had faced 25 or more 7 times before coming to the twins.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

19 hours ago, FlyingFinn said:

In another thread, we have people saying that Rice University overuses their pitchers and causes future arm injuries (Canterino). Here, we are saying that underusing pitchers will make them sign elsewhere. I believe players and agents will avoid places where they are overused like at Rice and I don't believe this philosophy will keep pitchers away from the Twins.

To add to this, the players are not objective opinions of their effectiveness if they stretch more innings, or weighing the impact of inherited runners to the bullpen.

I don’t blame Gray for being a competitor and wanting to go deeper in games, but his opinion is just his opinion. He pitched great his last outing, but letting him go for the 7th was very fortunate that Thielbar was hell of a fireman. That probably would have have gone crooked 7 out of 10 times and changed the game entirely.

[TopGunn#22]

I think Rocco is a computer manager.  He doesn't really seem to have a feel for the game like a Craig Counsel.  Rocco goes by his book and that's it.  It's why he's unable to manufacture runs (300+ HR's your first year as a manager can have that affect I guess).  The analytics say to do "X!"  That's how Rocco manages.  

[chpettit19]

8 hours ago, Mark G said:

I get what you are saying as well, with these guys in particular, but there are individual situations where we could (should?) have some flexibility.  During games that we win 9-0 (or somewhere in that ballpark), is when we might be able to let a guy go deeper and save the pen.  But, correct me if I am wrong, the plan is the plan no matter what.  Whether it be pitch counts or times through the line up, we rarely, if ever, stray from the plan  The Gray example was a good one for changing pitchers at that time, but I would bet he would have made that move no matter how many runs we were up; it is simply how he manages and the FO appears to agree (or is it the other way around?).  I do see what you mean about THESE pitchers, but we have had many others over the 3 years, many others, and only Berrios was allowed to complete his game - and only twice.  That is a philosophy that goes beyond any current starting 5 or 6; it is an organizational belief that is not flexible at any point.  So we might just as well look for really good RP's and let them go longer in an outing.  Any starter they sign they will use as they have used every starter they have signed since they got here.  It just is who they are.    

Dylan Bundy, yes, the Dylan Bundy with a 4.76 ERA, had an 8 inning start this year because the Twins were winning the game by something in the 9-0 ballpark (won the game 11-1). So, no, the plan is not the plan "no matter what." The Twins score 3 or fewer runs in almost half their games. They don't have a whole bunch of 9-0 ballpark games to let guys go wild in. 

Again, if complete games are your measuring stick you're going to be disappointed in every major league team. They just don't happen anymore. 22 this entire season by any pitchers on any team. Something that hasn't even happened once per team by the time you're halfway through August can't be your measuring stick. As people have shown over and over, the Twins are not far off from the MLB norm in managing starters. They simply aren't. 2 hitters less per start is a problem? 1 out fewer than most every team per start is a problem? This is how baseball does things now. It simply is. We don't have to like it, but we certainly should accept that top guys get to go as long as they can, middle tier guys get a little extra leash into the 3rd time through a lineup, and bottom tier guys get basically no wiggle room once the lineup comes up a 3rd time on any team in major league baseball. The Twins haven't had many top tier guys. Already showed they let Berrios go. In 2020 when Maeda was a stud he was averaging over 6 innings a start. They let good pitchers pitch. They just haven't had many.

[chpettit19]

11 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Oh, I got it. The Twins let "good" pitchers pitch, not pitchers who are pitching well. That makes sense. Not. Maybe the Twins should let pitchers who are pitching well keep pitching... you know, like everybody else in baseball history? 
 

Date	Opp	IP	TBF	R	ER	HR	K/9	BB/9	BABIP	EV	ERA	FIP	xFIP	WHIP
8/13/2022	@LAA	5.0	19	0	0	0	1.8	1.8	0.125	76.4	0.00	3.91	6.57	0.60
8/6/2022	TOR	4.0	18	2	2	1	13.5	2.25	0.400	96.4	4.50	4.11	2.34	1.50
7/31/2022	@SDP	5.0	19	3	3	1	5.4	0	0.200	89	5.40	4.51	4.28	0.80
7/26/2022	@MIL	4.0	21	5	5	2	11.25	4.5	0.417	86.4	11.25	8.61	5.07	2.25
7/16/2022	CHW	5.1	21	3	3	0	5.06	1.69	0.294	88.9	5.06	2.55	5.04	1.13
7/10/2022	@TEX	5.0	22	4	4	0	7.2	3.6	0.375	93.1	7.20	2.71	3.60	1.60
7/4/2022	@CHW	5.0	18	1	1	1	10.8	1.8	0.200	94.4	1.80	3.91	2.49	0.80
6/29/2022	@CLE	5.0	21	3	2	0	1.8	1.8	0.316	92.2	3.60	3.31	6.27	1.40
6/24/2022	COL	6.0	23	1	1	0	3	3	0.211	89.4	1.50	3.45	5.91	1.00
6/18/2022	@ARI	8.0	28	1	1	0	7.88	0	0.190	87.2	1.13	1.36	3.02	0.50
6/9/2022	NYY	4.0	18	4	4	2	2.25	2.25	0.214	93.5	9.00	9.86	6.69	1.50
6/4/2022	@TOR	2.1	17	6	5	2	7.71	3.86	0.500	95.3	19.29	13.83	7.12	3.86
5/30/2022	@DET	6.0	28	4	4	1	4.5	0	0.348	90.1	6.00	4.78	4.58	1.50
5/25/2022	DET	5.2	23	1	1	1	9.53	1.59	0.267	85.1	1.59	3.82	3.35	1.06
5/17/2022	@OAK	3.0	13	0	0	0	9	6	0.250	84	0.00	3.11	5.08	1.33
5/4/2022	@BAL	3.2	23	9	9	2	7.36	4.91	0.563	93.4	22.09	10.20	5.93	3.55
4/29/2022	@TBR	6.0	26	6	6	2	10.5	3	0.333	85.3	9.00	6.11	3.26	1.50
4/23/2022	CHW	5.0	19	0	0	0	7.2	0	0.267	85.4	0.00	1.51	2.99	0.80
4/18/2022	@BOS	5.1	21	1	1	0	10.13	0	0.333	96.2	1.69	0.86	1.97	0.94
4/11/2022	SEA	5.0	18	0	0	0	3.6	1.8	0.067	83.5	0.00	2.91	4.98	0.40

Really? Dylan Bundy and his ERA of 4.76 is the hill you want to die on? By all means. Ignore the 8 inning start in there. But, yes, they should definitely let the guy with a 4.27 FIP (a stat I know you love) and an ERA of almost 5 really stretch it out because he's clearly earned that. I mean you highlighted a game where he gave up 3 runs in 5 innings and you're going to sell that as a game he should've been given another inning or 2? Shoot, the game on 5/25 they brought him out for the 6th with a 2-0 lead and he promptly gave up a homerun and another base runner (tying run if you're not following along). Yeah, they maybe pulled him early in his first 3 starts of the season. So we're supposed to be real upset about them pulling Dylan freaking Bundy early in his first 3 starts of the year after a shortened spring training and 1 other start on August 13th? That's the hill you want to die on? By all means, have at it.

Not to mention we actually pointed out in this very thread yesterday that both the Orioles and Blue Jays, in the same game between playoff race contenders, pulled starting pitchers with shutouts going after 6 and 6.1 innings pitched. Voth was at 86 pitches and Stripling was at 72. That's not a typo, the Blue Jays pulled Stripling after 6.1 shutout innings and 72 pitches. But by all means tell me again how nobody else does what the Twins do. Please. Tell me that those teams are doing things drastically different than the Twins. 

[Mark G]

25 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Dylan Bundy, yes, the Dylan Bundy with a 4.76 ERA, had an 8 inning start this year because the Twins were winning the game by something in the 9-0 ballpark (won the game 11-1). So, no, the plan is not the plan "no matter what." The Twins score 3 or fewer runs in almost half their games. They don't have a whole bunch of 9-0 ballpark games to let guys go wild in. 

Again, if complete games are your measuring stick you're going to be disappointed in every major league team. They just don't happen anymore. 22 this entire season by any pitchers on any team. Something that hasn't even happened once per team by the time you're halfway through August can't be your measuring stick. As people have shown over and over, the Twins are not far off from the MLB norm in managing starters. They simply aren't. 2 hitters less per start is a problem? 1 out fewer than most every team per start is a problem? This is how baseball does things now. It simply is. We don't have to like it, but we certainly should accept that top guys get to go as long as they can, middle tier guys get a little extra leash into the 3rd time through a lineup, and bottom tier guys get basically no wiggle room once the lineup comes up a 3rd time on any team in major league baseball. The Twins haven't had many top tier guys. Already showed they let Berrios go. In 2020 when Maeda was a stud he was averaging over 6 innings a start. They let good pitchers pitch. They just haven't had many.

It might be a very simple question, simple as in naive, but how could we possibly know?  Archer, for example, has never pitched past the 5th inning, regardless of pitch count.  How could we possibly know how he would do in the later innings if he literally never sees them?  At least with him, it is the plan no matter what.  

I know there are going to be exceptions to this hard and fast rule, we all do.  There certainly is a measure of exaggeration when terms like those are used, but it would be tough to deny it is such a majority of the time that it is hard to remember those rare occurrences when having a broad discussion.  Kind of like macro vs. micro.  The total picture vs. an individual occurrence.  I have heard national commentators comment more than once this year about the amount of innings our BP has had to pitch, along with local reporters in the paper.  At one point not too long ago, it was the 3rd most.  It is not hyperbole to say that we have a philosophy about starters and relievers that we very seldom stray from.  Averaging either just over or just under (depending on the point in the season) 5 innings a start is a philosophy, not game by game strategy.  The fact that some/most or even all teams do it to one extent or another as well doesn't mean we should be so tied to it.  We have had 4 different groups of starters in the 4 years Rocco has been with Falvine, and only in '19 did we get to 6 innings a start.  Now I would argue you could go further into games with 307 home runs backing you up, but it did relieve (pardon the pun) the BP of a lot of innings over 162 games.  We will never know if this group could have done the same, because we simply wouldn't let them.  And the BP has had to bear the brunt of it.  It is a debate that not only isn't going anywhere, it is a good one to have; not only for fans, but internally in the organization.  Thanks for the give and take.  

[Bradfoot]

If Sonny Gray is only going to look at teams that will give him an average of 6+ innings, the number of teams he can sign with would be small and getting smaller.  More and more teams are adapting this mentality of limiting the number of times they go through the lineup instead of x number of pitches thrown, this is not a Twins specific philosophy. 

 

Is he really going to turn down a big contract from the Dodgers because he doesn't want them to pull him after 5 like they do with some of the best pitchers in the league?  

 

Sonny Gray's ERA when facing a lineup for the 3rd time is 8.25 this season (4.88 career).  We are doing him and the team a favor by pulling him early.

[chpettit19]

1 minute ago, Mark G said:

It might be a very simple question, simple as in naive, but how could we possibly know?  Archer, for example, has never pitched past the 5th inning, regardless of pitch count.  How could we possibly know how he would do in the later innings if he literally never sees them?  At least with him, it is the plan no matter what.  

I know there are going to be exceptions to this hard and fast rule, we all do.  There certainly is a measure of exaggeration when terms like those are used, but it would be tough to deny it is such a majority of the time that it is hard to remember those rare occurrences when having a broad discussion.  Kind of like macro vs. micro.  The total picture vs. an individual occurrence.  I have heard national commentators comment more than once this year about the amount of innings our BP has had to pitch, along with local reporters in the paper.  At one point not too long ago, it was the 3rd most.  It is not hyperbole to say that we have a philosophy about starters and relievers that we very seldom stray from.  Averaging either just over or just under (depending on the point in the season) 5 innings a start is a philosophy, not game by game strategy.  The fact that some/most or even all teams do it to one extent or another as well doesn't mean we should be so tied to it.  We have had 4 different groups of starters in the 4 years Rocco has been with Falvine, and only in '19 did we get to 6 innings a start.  Now I would argue you could go further into games with 307 home runs backing you up, but it did relieve (pardon the pun) the BP of a lot of innings over 162 games.  We will never know if this group could have done the same, because we simply wouldn't let them.  And the BP has had to bear the brunt of it.  It is a debate that not only isn't going anywhere, it is a good one to have; not only for fans, but internally in the organization.  Thanks for the give and take.  

They've tried to let him go deeper a couple times and it's been an utter disaster every time. Archer has openly admitted that he just hasn't been able to build up the strength to go deeper into games even though he'd like to.

I don't understand the argument of "just because everyone in baseball has decided this is the best way to do things doesn't mean the Twins shouldn't do what's best." I do understand the argument that the FO has failed to provide Rocco with adequate talent on his pitching staff for 2 straight years, though. Ross Stripling had a shutout through 6.1 yesterday for a Blue Jays team who is doing everything they can to make the playoffs and they pulled him with just 72 pitches thrown. I don't like that either, but it just goes to show that this is what the best strategy for getting outs is. I think we should all be able to agree that all 30 front offices have a better understanding of this than the collective TD crowd. It doesn't mean it's good for baseball, and doesn't mean any of us should like it, but I don't get ripping Rocco for doing what the collective baseball industry has determined is the smart thing to do. He let Berrios go when he was here. He let Maeda go when he was healthy and dominating. He let Gray and Ryan both go when they were good and healthy early. But now the rotation isn't good and healthy, and the pen isn't all that good either. He let Gray go a little longer the other day and Gray immediately allowed 2 base runners in a 3-0 game. 

It's a problem for baseball and I hope the rules they're putting in place get teams to change their strategies, but I don't expect it anytime soon, unfortunately. I still have no idea why the Twins don't use more long relievers to eat multiple innings instead of going with 1 inning guys all the time. That is something that differs from a number of teams, and I think is the bigger problem. They use their starters the same way everyone does. There's just aren't that good. But then they rely on 1 inning guys to go 4 innings every night and that's the problem I think we should be more upset about. Use Sands, Sanchez, Smeltzer, whoever for 2 or 3 innings a couple times a week and save the 1 inning guys some wear and tear. They can't be any worse than Pagan for an inning.

[Mark G]

One more aside before I have to depart:  wins and losses for starting pitchers may or may not mean much when it comes to arbitration awards or FA contracts, but they still mean a hell of a lot to the pitcher.  And you cannot get a win if you don't pitch 5 innings, leave when you are tied or behind, or get your 5 (or more) in and the pen gives up the lead.  Hell, they can't even get a "quality start" unless they do 6 (or more).  And that does mean something to them, even if they put their public face forward and toe the line.  So when a Gray finally says something in frustration, we should be listening to him, because he probably represents a lot more players than we think.  Just one very, no, extremely humble opinion.  

[jonbeer]

So, he's pining for 2017? ??‍♂️ That's the last time he averaged 6 IP per start. He's being used pretty much the same way he was in Cincy.

[chpettit19]

2 minutes ago, jonbeer said:

So, he's pining for 2017? ??‍♂️ That's the last time he averaged 6 IP per start. He's being used pretty much the same way he was in Cincy.

Welcome to TD! My hope is that part of his frustration is with himself for not being good enough to pitch 6 innings a start lately.

[GV14218]

22 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

If we're still relying on 34 year old Sonny Gray in 2024 I think there's bigger problems

Absolutely right. 

[Bradfoot]

5 minutes ago, Mark G said:

One more aside before I have to depart:  wins and losses for starting pitchers may or may not mean much when it comes to arbitration awards or FA contracts, but they still mean a hell of a lot to the pitcher.  And you cannot get a win if you don't pitch 5 innings, leave when you are tied or behind, or get your 5 (or more) in and the pen gives up the lead.  Hell, they can't even get a "quality start" unless they do 6 (or more).  And that does mean something to them, even if they put their public face forward and toe the line.  So when a Gray finally says something in frustration, we should be listening to him, because he probably represents a lot more players than we think.  Just one very, no, extremely humble opinion.  

I have always believed the minimum innings for a win was a pointless barrier when relievers could get a win after facing one batter.

 

I also think the mentality around what is expected from a starting pitcher will change, just like it did when the 100 pitch count started to become a standard.  I believe more and more teams will see that pitchers are worse the more the lineup sees them so teams will be constructed in a way that they can pull the starters earlier.  It's hard for the players to argue with what gives the team the best chance to win without sounding selfish (stats, salary, etc.).  There are years of data to support pulling starters earlier than what is perceived as normal. 

 

Maybe we will eventually get away from 5-man rotations and a 4 or 3-man rotation will give starters more mileage but there is a clear shift happening in the mentality around starting pitching. 

[Otaknam]

Why would any starting pitcher be happy with how Rocco handles them? Rocco shows no confidence in any pitcher on this staff to go more than 5 innings or stretching to six if the planets align properly. They can’t get to big money contracts if they are only allowed to pitch 150 innings. No wonder Berrios didn’t want to sign here. I have finally concluded that Rocco needs to go. 

[Craig Arko]

13 hours ago, SwainZag said:

My bad it was two singles.  

Either way, it was lucky Thielbar got out of the inning, or the right move?  If Gray gives up a game tying 3-run HR to the next batter are people applauding Rocco for "letting him fight through it because he was good in the first 6 innings?"  It's so crazy to me that a move like this can work out beautifully like it did, and people still get worked up about it.  Is Gray allowed to be a little upset he didn't get to keep going?  He sure is...but it still doesn't meant it would have been the right move.

Imagine what Blyleven or Morris would have done. That might match Rocco’s postgame after that out at the plate call was reversed. 

[tarheeltwinsfan]

23 hours ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

Listening between the words, I took that he wasn't saying the average innings was an issue (when he said change wasn't bad), I am thinking he was saying when he is on he can and should do more. (In the last few years that hasn't been something that has happened a lot)

I agree with this assessment.  Gray was on a roll and felt he deserved to be left in the game, even at 92 pitches, 3rd time through the order, which is reasonable. 

[chpettit19]

26 minutes ago, Otaknam said:

Why would any starting pitcher be happy with how Rocco handles them? Rocco shows no confidence in any pitcher on this staff to go more than 5 innings or stretching to six if the planets align properly. They can’t get to big money contracts if they are only allowed to pitch 150 innings. No wonder Berrios didn’t want to sign here. I have finally concluded that Rocco needs to go. 

Jose Berrios is a weird example to use here. He was tied for 6th in innings pitched in 2021. He threw 200.1 innings in 2019. 192.1 in 2018. He was on pace for 200 innings again last year when a team traded 2 of their top prospects for him and immediately gave him the big money deal you claim he shouldn't have been able to get because of how the Twins treat their pitchers. You literally used a pitcher who disproves your point in your post.

He's now averaging 5.3 innings per start for the team that gave him that big money deal. And has an ERA of 5.61. Maybe the Twins were the ones who were right on this one?

[kenbuddha]

38 minutes ago, Otaknam said:

Why would any starting pitcher be happy with how Rocco handles them? Rocco shows no confidence in any pitcher on this staff to go more than 5 innings or stretching to six if the planets align properly. They can’t get to big money contracts if they are only allowed to pitch 150 innings. No wonder Berrios didn’t want to sign here. I have finally concluded that Rocco needs to go. 

Not even close to accurate with respect to Berrios. Go look at his game log when Baldelli was his manager (fangraphs split tool is pretty cool). He consistently pitched to batters a 3rd time in a game. He consistently pitched to over 25 batters per game and 7 innings which is how Toronto has been using him. Berrios' issue wasn't how he was being used (or if it was he should have complaints about it in Toronto as well then). Again, Baldelli lets good pitchers pitch. It's a quality vs quantity issue.

And has been stated many times in these comments if Baldelli goes he'd be replaced with someone very similar since it's a Twins philosophy.

[GeorgiaBaller]

Good for Sonny!  Somebody wants to wear some big boy pants---and the Twins can't deal with that?  Why don't we just have a computer program to run the pitchers, right?  That's what we have right now, we have a system and we can't stray from it.  Sonny thinks a starter slowing in later innings can still be as or more effective than a series of relievers.  I tend to agree, based on how the starter is throwing that night, he should be given more leash, not pulled at the first hit.  What are the bullpen ERA's as a whole for the 6-8 innings?  I would roll the dice with a starter having a good start, instead.  I admire that in a starter, some fire and "I want the ball", but when the team is too narrow minded to recognize those occasions...... well.....you see what you become on the field today.  

But that's a feel thing we can't trust, we need a computer program to stick to.    C'mon!  if Rocco can't figure this out, he is a bench coach and not a Mgr.

Sonny Gray is Brad Radke for the Twins.  He will not be a #1 starter on anyone's team, but he is much better than most of the alternatives we have, if he can remain healthy.

 

 

 

[Bradfoot]

5 minutes ago, GeorgiaBaller said:

Good for Sonny!  Somebody wants to wear some big boy pants---and the Twins can't deal with that?  Why don't we just have a computer program to run the pitchers, right?  That's what we have right now, we have a system and we can't stray from it.  Sonny thinks a starter slowing in later innings can still be as or more effective than a series of relievers.  I tend to agree, based on how the starter is throwing that night, he should be given more leash, not pulled at the first hit.  What are the bullpen ERA's as a whole for the 6-8 innings?  I would roll the dice with a starter having a good start, instead.  I admire that in a starter, some fire and "I want the ball", but when the team is too narrow minded to recognize those occasions...... well.....you see what you become on the field today.  

But that's a feel thing we can't trust, we need a computer program to stick to.    C'mon!  if Rocco can't figure this out, he is a bench coach and not a Mgr.

Sonny Gray is Brad Radke for the Twins.  He will not be a #1 starter on anyone's team, but he is much better than most of the alternatives we have, if he can remain healthy.

 

 

 

Sonny Gray 2022

1st time thru the batting order 1.56 ERA

2nd time thru the batting order 3.13 ERA

3rd time thru the batting order 8.25 ERA

 

Career

1st time thru the batting order 2.65 ERA

2nd time thru the batting order 3.80 ERA

3rd time thru the batting order 4.88 ERA

 

Sonny Gray's career ERA when facing a batting order for the 3rd time is 4.88.  Emilio Pagan has a 4.87 ERA this season.  Running Sonny Gray out for the 6th inning would be statistically worse than putting Pagan in.

[Battle ur tail off]

1 hour ago, Bradfoot said:

Sonny Gray 2022

1st time thru the batting order 1.56 ERA

2nd time thru the batting order 3.13 ERA

3rd time thru the batting order 8.25 ERA

 

Career

1st time thru the batting order 2.65 ERA

2nd time thru the batting order 3.80 ERA

3rd time thru the batting order 4.88 ERA

 

Sonny Gray's career ERA when facing a batting order for the 3rd time is 4.88.  Emilio Pagan has a 4.87 ERA this season.  Running Sonny Gray out for the 6th inning would be statistically worse than putting Pagan in.

Take any pitcher in the history of baseball and the stats will show this same thing ERA increases as hitters see them. What people here are saying is that each individual game, is each individual game. 

If Dylan freaking Bundy say or any starting pitcher on roster is at 63 pitches with 2 hits and no runs in the 5th, you let him go back out there for another inning. I don't care if he's not Nolan Ryan, he has something going that night. Any MLB pitcher can be in a groove or the other team isn't seeing them good that night and throw a good deep ballgame every once in awhile. It is a manager's job to try and figure out what night that is. Stuff looks great, not tired, low pitcher count, command is good. Let them roll.

Consistently pulling guys in the 5th will lead to your bullpen being overworked and overexposed. It is that simple and has cost us games because of the fact that we flat out don't have a bullpen that can be counted on EVERY SINGLE NIGHT for 4 innings. No team does. 

[TwinsDr2021]

1 hour ago, Bradfoot said:

Sonny Gray 2022

1st time thru the batting order 1.56 ERA

2nd time thru the batting order 3.13 ERA

3rd time thru the batting order 8.25 ERA

 

To put this into a bit of context.

Numbers of times facing the position in the battering order.

1 - 15

2 - 15

3 - 9

4 - 8

5 - 4

6 - 3

7 - 2

8 - 1

9 - 0

So they are asking him to basically face the first 4 guys in the batting order three times but nobody else, shouldn't the numbers be very badly shewed? That is like asking the pitcher face Arraez, Buxton, Correa and Miranda 3 times, but noting allowing him to face Sanchez, Gordon Celestiono, and the rest of the team. Which totally explains why his numbers are so terrible this year.

I am not saying he should or should not go further but when pointing something like this out it helps to have context, don't you think?

How many people know he has faced the first two batter combined more than the other 7?

[RJA]

On 8/17/2022 at 11:32 AM, chpettit19 said:

f we're still relying on 34 year old Sonny Gray in 2024 I think there's bigger problems and there should probably be a new FO in place. Winder, Ober, Ryan, Paddack all still under team control in 2024. With Balazovic, Sands, Enlow, Dobnak, Smeltzer, Henriquez already on the 40-man, and SWR, Prielipp, Raya, Canterino (I think he's in the pen, to be fair), and Varland types who should be debuting in the next 2 years. Not to mention way higher upside guys on the market than Gray the next 2 offseasons.

Good post, but I will be a devil's advocate.  I am not a huge Gray fan, but I am not impressed with the list of folks in the system that could take his place. Winder, Ober, Enlow, Paddack, Dobnak, and Canterino (and now maybe Mahle) are all coming off injuries/TJ.  Balazovic, Smeltzer, Henriquez, and Sands have not set the world on fire thus far, particularly Balazovic and Henriquez.  Raya is a ways away, Prielipp we haven't seen yet, and SWR has been off and on this year.  Ryan looks like a 3 or 4 to me unless his secondary stuff improves.  I am not sure there is a number 1, or even a 2 in that list of pitchers.  There are question marks around almost all of people you listed.  That leaves us with the idea that we could pick up a better pitcher on the open market. That may be true but when have the Twins done that in the past?  If things break well for the Twins, things will be ok.  But I am not sure that will happen.  At this point, there are a lot of "will be's" in the minors, and we all know that "will be's" won't always "be be's."

Love your post.  Just putting forth another point of view. 

[Bradfoot]

26 minutes ago, Battle ur tail off said:

Take any pitcher in the history of baseball and the stats will show this same thing ERA increases as hitters see them. What people here are saying is that each individual game, is each individual game. 

If Dylan freaking Bundy say or any starting pitcher on roster is at 63 pitches with 2 hits and no runs in the 5th, you let him go back out there for another inning. I don't care if he's not Nolan Ryan, he has something going that night. Any MLB pitcher can be in a groove or the other team isn't seeing them good that night and throw a good deep ballgame every once in awhile. It is a manager's job to try and figure out what night that is. Stuff looks great, not tired, low pitcher count, command is good. Let them roll.

Consistently pulling guys in the 5th will lead to your bullpen being overworked and overexposed. It is that simple and has cost us games because of the fact that we flat out don't have a bullpen that can be counted on EVERY SINGLE NIGHT for 4 innings. No team does. 

A huge part of the reason Sonny Gray has such a good ERA is because he has been consistantly pulled early.  It's easy to assume that a good performance would have continued but the data suggests that odds are they wouldn't have.  The same people that get upset that x pitcher was pulled during a good outing will wonder why he wasn't pulled when a 5-inning shutout turned into a 6th or 7th inning meltdown.

When a starter's stat line for the 3rd time through the order is worse than replacement level then it really shouldn't matter who is coming in for him.  I don't think there is any team that has carried the same 13 or 14 pitchers for the whole season.  The 3 best bullpens according to fWAR are Baltimore, LA Dodgers, and Atlanta.  They have used 32 pitchers, 28 pitchers, and 29 pitchers.  So even the Twins using 33 pitchers with our bad bullpen has not been very different than the elite bullpens, usage wise.

[JD-TWINS]

How’d Sonny look in the 7th the other night.?? Point made. So maybe he could have faced another 10-12 guys this year if he was let to start a sixth a few more times. Then people would complain about Rocco expecting to come in & get Sonny out of a jamb with runners on base. Easy to pump your chest & be competitive but the Stats don’t lie - his ERA the 3rd time around make Pagan a more than reasonable solution. Love his competitiveness and edge but he’s being protected for his & team’s good.

Take the ball and produce when & however asked!

[Bradfoot]

49 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

To put this into a bit of context.

Numbers of times facing the position in the battering order.

1 - 15

2 - 15

3 - 9

4 - 8

5 - 4

6 - 3

7 - 2

8 - 1

9 - 0

So they are asking him to basically face the first 4 guys in the batting order three times but nobody else, shouldn't the numbers be very badly shewed? That is like asking the pitcher face Arraez, Buxton, Correa and Miranda 3 times, but noting allowing him to face Sanchez, Gordon Celestiono, and the rest of the team. Which totally explains why his numbers are so terrible this year.

I am not saying he should or should not go further but when pointing something like this out it helps to have context, don't you think?

How many people know he has faced the first two batter combined more than the other 7?

Isn't this going to be apparent for all pitchers?  They are always going to be more likely to be forced out of the game by the top of the lineup.  If the 2,3,4 hitters get on base you don't assume he will get the next 3 out just because they are 5,6,7 hitters.  The top of the lineup is more likely to do damage and pitchers are more likely to be pulled when they run into trouble.

If anything this supports pulling him sooner.  He shouldn't be asked to get lit up by the top of the order to get to the bottom of the order a 3rd time. 

 

I admit the 8.25 this year is a small sample size and I try to use his 4.88 career as a better indicator.

[bean5302]

The FTO/STO/TTO (first time through the order, second time through the order, third time through the order) logic is garbage. A pitcher gets into the TTO. They're pitching a great game and the manager lets the pitcher come back out for the top of the 7th.

The pitcher gives up a walk on a bad ball 4 call and a bloop hit. The manager decides they've seen enough since they've already had the bullpen warming up and they pull the starter. The starter's FIP is now inflated because he wasn't allowed to get the outs for the inning.

and

The middle reliever comes in, gives up a leadoff double which scores 2 and then gets the rest of the outs recorded to end the inning. Now the starter's ERA gets blown up too.

This is why TTO ERA is a crap stat and FIP is sketchy.

This is the MLB median for xFIP in 2022 based on Fangraphs Split Leaderboards.

FTO = xFIP 3.91
STO = xFIP 4.10
TTO = xFIP 4.27

TTO is worse, but there's less difference in TTO vs STO than STO and FTO.