Do Any of the Top Free Agents Fit in Minnesota?

[tony&rodney]

Take a chance on one FA, like the signing of Correa this year. Correa? Hopefully, but likely not returning. Judge - 5 years at $50M per year? Sure, why not. Verlander for 2 years and $80M total. It would be fun to have Judge or Verlander.

[DocBauer]

The only one on that list that MIGHT sign is Correa. And that's only if he and his family really want to stay and he is OK with a 5yr front loaded deal. 

I try to be a realist, which is why I expect Correa gone, and his $35M being plugged back in to the budget.

The Twins will have both money and opportunity to actually spend on a solid/good FA SP to deepen the staff, despite what's on hand now and a couple nice looking arms like Ober and Winder. It's a unique opportunity to add without blowing up the current or future payroll for a 3-4yr type of deal. Dman listed a few of those arms. A couple may come with a QO, but I don't know that losing a 2023 pick would stop the FO if they could add a really nice piece to the rotation.

The pen has a nice foundation, especially if Fulmer is brought back. And the Twins aren't devoid of young arms to help fill the last 3 spots or so in the pen with Moran, Megill, and some starters converted to middle relief. And they HAVE to re-think their BP approach to be something other than a collection of 1 IP arms. Rocco has even spoken up about this, FINALLY. Still, why not drop a few $M for one more BP arm to go along with said FA SP?

After that, IMO, and being a realist, I'd be looking for a couple 2 or 3 bats. Do they bank on AK being back? Or do they spend to find a solid 1B/DH bat? Garlick is an OK, solid RH bat who fills a role. But how about a better option that costs a little but doesn't break the bank? Gordon and Celestino can cover CF and provide some offense and have some potential still. But competition wouldn't be a bad thing would it?

And we have to find a partner at catcher with Jeffers. It wouldn't be crazy to have Sanchez back, but I'm hoping for a better "fit". Not sure who that might be at the moment.

In short:

NO to any of the names above.

YES to: 

1] A quality FA SP. 

2] One quality, reliable BP arm and probably Fulmer back as well.

3] A Garlick replacement, or at least competition. 

4] A quality catcher to share duties with Jeffers. Doesn't have to hit LH, but it would be a bonus.

OTHER POSSIBLES:

1] 1B/DH bat since there are questions about AK. Doesn't have to be an All Star, just a quality bat/player.

2] A possible fill in SS to compete with Palacios since Lewis won't be ready.

3] MAYBE an inexpensive OF option to compete with and push Celestino but really, probably just a depth signing on the milb side of things. 

That's 4 musts and a couple strong probables. And there will, of course, be a couple raises across the Twins payroll, but nothing outlandish.

It can be tantalizing to think about mega-bucks spent on a star player. But I prefer to look at reality. I think there's an awful lot to like how this team is set up for 2023, though there remains some injury concerns.

Correa off the books, along with Sano, Rogers, and Sanchez is around $55M. That money can go a long way to add a solid/good SP, add to the pen, bring in a quality catcher to share the load, and at least one decent RH OF bat. It probably wouldn't be enough to cover the 1B/DH option I mentioned. That would require a little stretch of the current payroll if done. 

I think the foundation, right now as is, looks pretty good. You make those adds, you're still around middle of the pack in total payroll, and have yourself a really good, competitive and potentially dangerous team.

I just think the money could be better spent to fill holes as a TEAM vs investing so much in ONE guy.

[Game7-91]

Aaron Judge: Someone will find out why you dont dole out term and top market to a guy who suddenly finds excess power and durability in his contract year. Fools gold. Someone will pay it, it sure better not be Falvine and company.

[Finlander]

Miranda seems like a fit for the "non-allstar" 1B/DH slot DocBauer requests. He's been the best clutch hitter on the team.

Hopefully we'll get a chance to see how the Kirilloff/Larnach/Wallner corner decisions shake out, if the first two ever get healthy.

I'd like to see Correa opt in next year. A contending team shouldn't rely on unproven rookies in such an important defensive position. Beyond SS and second catcher, we don't seem to be in bad shape with the lineup going into next year. The pitching could use an arm or three, but let's see where Maeda is before worrying too much about the rotation. I agree the bullpen could use more help. But I think mainly the Twins need some strong lefthanded pitching in their staff or system, whether starting or relieving. What have we had in the rotation? Smeltzer, Perez, Scott Diamond....we're overdue for a nasty lefty. I'd try to trade low for Sale, who is unpopular in Boston these days, and have Boston eat some of that contract.

Absent that...please open the checkbook for Mr Rodon!

[TwinsDr2021]

16 hours ago, Dman said:

Maybe DeGrom, Verlander, or Rodon if he opts out.   There are other guys but I think they might might mid rotation or lower Like Bassit, Manea, Eovaldi.

I like all three, but I zero chance the Twins sign any of them, the second set of guys are not much different than the Mahle, Gray, Ryan group, you are looking at 5/6 innings guys max.

If they aren't going to let Gray work out of a little trouble last night in the 7th up by 3 after basically being perfect for the first 6th, they aren't letting anybody.

How could the twins sign a Verlander and say to the rest of the team there are different rules for him then the rest of you, and we aren't even going to give you are chance to be like him?

[dxpavelka]

The only way one of these guys ends up here is if Correa agrees to something in the 5 year $180 to $210 million range.  VERY unlikely. 

[terrydactyls]

My thoughts.

1. Correa opts out and hopes for a big contract (but doesn't get it).

2. Palacios takes over SS and plays until Lewis is ready.  Then a decision needs to be made.  If Palacios is playing well, does Lewis take over RF or LF?

3. Extend Miranda for ten years at $85M.

4. Find a catcher.

5. Resign Fullmer.  Convert two or three minor league starting pitchers to relievers (take your pick of the many that have been mentioned this year).  That gives the Twins eight or nine arms in the bullpen (Fullmer, Lopez, Duran, Jax, Moran, Thielbar, and the converted minor league starters).  Fill the remaining slots with current minor league relievers.

6. Use the remaining $55M for two starters and a catcher.  And ask Pohlad for an extra $5M or $10M to make sure at least one is better than Mahle/Gray.

7. That takes care of 2023.  Should we start on 2024 next? ??

[Trov]

18 hours ago, cHawk said:

Aaron Judge will not leave the Yankees. No way in hell. Both him & Trea Turner will be too expensive.

I hope Correa opts in to the 2023 option, no matter how likely or unlikely they may be.

Judge may leave the Yankees.  It may depend on how willing Yankees are to be over the tax.  He turned down a big deal already.  I have not looked into the payroll of Yankees for next few years, but they do have some big contracts already in Stanton, Cole, Donaldson.  They still need to fill their rotation out with trading Montgomery, and Tallion being FA, Servino on IL.  

There may be a club willing to pay Judge more than what Yankees are willing to just because of tax level and other areas to fill in next year or two. 

[Karbo]

I for 1 would like to see them extend Correa. Everything I've seen in national publications talk about him being such a positive influence in the clubhouse, in addition to his play.

[cheeseheadgophfan]

I have a sneaky suspicion that Carlos is going to get very hot down the stretch......and we will be begging him to stay.  Superstar players tend to step-up when they smell the playoffs/primetime and I believe he is a superstar.

[Battle ur tail off]

15 hours ago, h2oface said:

There were several reasons Correa was not signed until he was last year, and that most teams didn't want him at his price. I don't want him either. There will be several shortstops on the market again, and Trea Turner is one of them, but not for the Twins. Correa is not performing at anywhere close to his salary this year. Maybe not even half of it. If Correa is not coming back, they should play him everyday. Why rest the guy that is leaving, anyway? Plus, he is highly motivated to perform better so when he opts out he can get other teams to ignore his cheating track reacord and sign him long term face of the franchise that he wants. Can a "clubhouse leader" really be the guy that was one of the top cheaters and least reticent about it? Correa could change that and make his decision early to not opt out for 2023 (still could for 2024), but he won't. So quit treating him like value for the future, and use him up!

I hope they go for pitching. And Verlander will be opting out. I would have much rather have had Verlander with Correa's current contract than Correa of 2022. Verlander is one of the only ones that will be looking for a shorter term contract. High dollar, short term. Kershaw too, but he will stay with Dodgers if he continues. Kershaw should do the Clemons, and start gearing up in June, and play July Aug Sept and postseason, and save his back and go shorter seasons but not miss the postseason.

It would be really ironic if Trea Turner signed elsewhere, and the Dodgers signed Correa! If it wasn't telling how the Twins fans had short memories from the booing last year to the fawning now, it would really be interesting to see how memories changed and how hypocritical Dodger fans might be.

And why wouldn't Verlander stay with the Astros? They are a top 2-3 team in baseball, they are stacked and have things figured out, it's a constant pipeline. They aren't going anywhere. 

25 million for one year? How many more years is he going to pitch? And does he want to do it with someone else or the team that is primed to win a WS every year?

[Steve71]

I really like what the Braves have been doing with their young players.

Should/would the Twins offer a similar deal to Miranda at this point, or too early?  Mixed results with Kepler, good results with Polanco.  Should also consider a deal for Arraez.  Take care of your own players first.

Twins wont dip their toes into the FA market until Correa makes his decision, as he is 25% of their payroll.

[Mike Sixel]

4 hours ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

I like all three, but I zero chance the Twins sign any of them, the second set of guys are not much different than the Mahle, Gray, Ryan group, you are looking at 5/6 innings guys max.

If they aren't going to let Gray work out of a little trouble last night in the 7th up by 3 after basically being perfect for the first 6th, they aren't letting anybody.

How could the twins sign a Verlander and say to the rest of the team there are different rules for him then the rest of you, and we aren't even going to give you are chance to be like him?

Because Verlander is a hall of fame pitcher that has shown he can go further into games. Not that it matters, he isn't signing here. 

[Minny505]

3 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Because Verlander is a hall of fame pitcher that has shown he can go further into games. Not that it matters, he isn't signing here. 

Agreed. Astros probably have an envelope sitting in the GM office with Justin Verlander's name on it. Inside is a check for $80mil and a contract for two years.

[PatPfund]

Correa could opt back in, depending on how things finish (I once was 99% "No way", but that might be down to 80% now). He has to make that call within 5 days of the end of the World Series, and the decision will have major implications for the rest of the Twins' off-season plans. His opt-in is the only way any of the OP players are on next year's MN roster.

The rest obviously help any MLB team, but... A. This regime is not spending that kind of long-term money on people in the back-half of their prime... or really anybody. B. The team has bigger needs elsewhere.

We don't really need a backup catcher; we have three of those right now (our bat-first catchers hit about the same as our defensive catcher). What we need is a starting catcher. With some of their freed up money, a run at Wilson Contreras would be nice. So would at least one more SP, though I'd look more for this FO to find one in the trade market instead of getting into a bidding war. (However, we do potentially get Ober, Maeda, and Winder back along with Paddack in June.) Re-signing Fulmer and another solid relief arm would also be nice.

If AK's recovery looks doubtful, I'd expect the Twins to go with Miranda/Arraez at 1B, and then bring back Urshela at 3B.

[TwinsDr2021]

28 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Because Verlander is a hall of fame pitcher that has shown he can go further into games. Not that it matters, he isn't signing here. 

? he isn't signing here! (or degrom and probably not Rodon)

I was just saying how do you explain to the prospects you brought up though the system that they have no chance of being him ever(in a Twins uniform), because they aren't going to let them. That was my point in bringing in Vets and them telling the young guys to bad so sad.

[Minny505]

1 hour ago, PatPfund said:

Correa could opt back in, depending on how things finish (I once was 99% "No way", but that might be down to 80% now). He has to make that call within 5 days of the end of the World Series, and the decision will have major implications for the rest of the Twins' off-season plans. His opt-in is the only way any of the OP players are on next year's MN roster.

The rest obviously help any MLB team, but... A. This regime is not spending that kind of long-term money on people in the back-half of their prime... or really anybody. B. The team has bigger needs elsewhere.

We don't really need a backup catcher; we have three of those right now (our bat-first catchers hit about the same as our defensive catcher). What we need is a starting catcher. With some of their freed up money, a run at Wilson Contreras would be nice. So would at least one more SP, though I'd look more for this FO to find one in the trade market instead of getting into a bidding war. (However, we do potentially get Ober, Maeda, and Winder back along with Paddack in June.) Re-signing Fulmer and another solid relief arm would also be nice.

If AK's recovery looks doubtful, I'd expect the Twins to go with Miranda/Arraez at 1B, and then bring back Urshela at 3B.

The Correa opt-out is starting to get chatter on a national level. More pundits are looking at his season, along with his history, and saying that 2021 is looking like the outlier and him being a 3.5-4 WAR player is the median. That is not going to secure him the payday he is looking for.

Right now, he'll get the Semien contract in FA, but he wants the Seagar contract.

Odds are still that he opts out, but it's getting closer to a coin flip than any of us expected the day the deal was announced. 

[South Dakota Tom]

I would love to see a Sean Murphy signing now that the A’s brought up Langaliers.  I don’t think CC is signing up again either (though it is possible) but I feel like they’ll use Palacios or even Urshela as SS until Lewis is ready and hope that they can rotate AK, Arraez, and Miranda at 1b. Miranda plays 3rd, or Urshela. If Larnach is healthy and we have Celestino and Gordon to sub in the OF, I don’t see any more position player moves.  
As many have said, structure the bullpen to have 3-4 multi-inning guys (1x through the order), some of whom you can rotate between AAA and the big club and 4-5 more 1-inning guys, all but one of whom you are willing to waive if they aren’t pitching well so you don’t get stuck with big contracts and clogged lineups.  If any reasonable combination of Ryan, Gray, Mahle, Ober, Winder, Paddock, Maeda, make up a starting 5, those relievers become crucial.  My personal opinion is that flexibility and numbers of arms are more important than “going out and getting two veterans.”