Max Kepler Under Contract for 2023

[RpR]

2 hours ago, saviking said:

That is such a small sample size my friend. Look at what he has done all throughout the minors. Wallner is hitting more than Miranda at this point when he was called up to the major leagues. Should we have written Miranda off? I'd venture to guess Wallner will heat up the rest of the year and raise his batting average to .250 before the year is out with power. 

Crp shoot, Rooker was a wonder in thte Minors too.

[IndianaTwin]

2 hours ago, strumdatjag said:

Yes he looks good in the outfield BUT - I watch Kepler bat, while the opposing team puts on the obligatory shift AND I  think - Just bunt the ball to the empty 3B.   Please just bunt the ball to the empty 3B.   After a few successful bunts, the shift won’t  be as obligatory. 

I don't disagree with wishing he'd go the opposite way more often. I was just pointing to anecdotal evidence that exemplifies the excellent defense he brings.

To your initial question, I don't think that being a league average hitter and providing outstanding defense is ever "hopeless." Will a team with nine Max Keplers contend? Probably not. Will a team with a Max Kepler batting seventh contend? I think so. 

[bean5302]

Matt Wallner, in his comprehensive 28 games in AAA...

[LA VIkes Fan]

On 8/18/2022 at 8:44 AM, Minny505 said:

How is this a discussion? Why the sudden hate?

He is now who he has been for most of his career: A league average bat with a plus COF glove. 

He's not going to return to '19-'20 form (they are called prime/peak years for a reason) and he doesn't need to to be worth $10mil and a roster spot. 

He is, right now, in the midst of his 3rd best offensive season of his career. He's hitting better than last year! 

Gordon, the same age now the Kep was in 2019, is likely in the midst of his own career year...and it is nowhere near as good as Kepler was then. Odds are Gordon will never be this good again. He is not the answer. A fun career revival story, but if Kepler is a 4th OF, Gordon is a 5th. 

What are you talking about!? This is just fan fatigue on a long-tenured player on a cold streak. 

You sound like a mob of villagers looking to burn the witch for allegedly turning one of them into a newt. 

 

Discussing Kepler's place on the team doesn't equal "hate". I think we're all pretty much on the same page - he's an elite defensive corner OF with a below average bat. I say below average because he's consistently in the high 90s in OPS+ and RF is a bat first position, It's ok to be league average or below OPS+ if you're the catcher, CF or SS, not so much if you play in the corner OF or corner IF.  For a lineup to work you need guys who's OPS+ in above 100 or even 110 in the bat first positions. Kepler has only been above 110 once in 2019, and was 109 in 2020. Other than that, always a guy between 95 and 100. 

The question is how do you improve this lineup? If you can find better bats where do they typically play? That's easy - 1B, 3B, DH,  LF and RF. I say keep Kepler until we find somebody better, and then drop him a rung to 4th OF. In the interim, DO NOT hit him in the middle of the order. Hit him 7 or 8, not 4, 5, or 6. He's killing us in the middle of the order - give those spots to Miranda, Gordon, and even Urshela ahead of Kepler. We have to play him because that better guy isn't on the roster right now but might be once Larnach is back this year and if Kirilloff can come back next year. Even if we think they those two can be the good hitting corner OFs we need, I think a good hitting corner OF should be a priority this off season. 

I think we're mostly just disappointed with Kepler. We all hoped he'd be a great defensive OF who also was a good hitter and he just isn't that guy.  And entering his age 30 season, it seems unlikely he will ever be that guy.  

[Minny505]

1 hour ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

Discussing Kepler's place on the team doesn't equal "hate". I think we're all pretty much on the same page - he's an elite defensive corner OF with a below average bat. I say below average because he's consistently in the high 90s in OPS+ and RF is a bat first position, It's ok to be league average or below OPS+ if you're the catcher, CF or SS, not so much if you play in the corner OF or corner IF.  For a lineup to work you need guys who's OPS+ in above 100 or even 110 in the bat first positions. Kepler has only been above 110 once in 2019, and was 109 in 2020. Other than that, always a guy between 95 and 100. 

The question is how do you improve this lineup? If you can find better bats where do they typically play? That's easy - 1B, 3B, DH,  LF and RF. I say keep Kepler until we find somebody better, and then drop him a rung to 4th OF. In the interim, DO NOT hit him in the middle of the order. Hit him 7 or 8, not 4, 5, or 6. He's killing us in the middle of the order - give those spots to Miranda, Gordon, and even Urshela ahead of Kepler. We have to play him because that better guy isn't on the roster right now but might be once Larnach is back this year and if Kirilloff can come back next year. Even if we think they those two can be the good hitting corner OFs we need, I think a good hitting corner OF should be a priority this off season. 

I think we're mostly just disappointed with Kepler. We all hoped he'd be a great defensive OF who also was a good hitter and he just isn't that guy.  And entering his age 30 season, it seems unlikely he will ever be that guy.  

This is a wonderful and measured response. You and I are in complete agreement. That said, it is not what seems to be the general temperature of the comment section of this post.

Comments about releasing him outright, replacing him with Contreras, trading him after the season for nothing just to make a change. The calls on here seem to be to make a change for change's sake, not to make an upgrade per se. 

There is some serious "play the backup QB" style comments going on here. That is what I was commenting on.

And really, the Twins position players are not the reason they are treading water. According to b-ref, the team is firmly in the 4-6 range of non-pitcher players by WAR by position. 

I do agree that getting a right-handed, bat first hitter for COF/DH is a good idea, but the marginal improvement a team can make on Kepler screams looking elsewhere. Start with the roster spots that have negative production and can make the most dramatic improvements for the investment...and if there are resources leftover when we get to the +2 WAR positions on the MLB roster, we can try to upgrade those.

[strumdatjag]

As someone more critical of Kepler, I agree that the corner outfielders must be above average batters.  Kepler is not one of those this year.  I’m not saying Mark Contreras is the answer.  Ultimately, I look to Trevor Larnach, Royce Lewis, maybe Alex Kirilloff and and even Luis Arraez as potential outfielders who could have better bats.  Despite the opinions of others here, I think Nick Gordon has the talent to improve to be both a plus defender and offensive player.  By the way, 2nd Base is another position where a better than average bat is needed.   Good defense can justify a lesser bat at Catcher, Shortstop and Center Field.  

[RpR]

19 minutes ago, strumdatjag said:

As someone more critical of Kepler, I agree that the corner outfielders must be above average batters.  Kepler is not one of those this year.  I’m not saying Mark Contreras is the answer.  Ultimately, I look to Trevor Larnach, Royce Lewis, maybe Alex Kirilloff and and even Luis Arraez as potential outfielders who could have better bats.  Despite the opinions of others here, I think Nick Gordon has the talent to improve to be both a plus defender and offensive player.  By the way, 2nd Base is another position where a better than average bat is needed.   Good defense can justify a lesser bat at Catcher, Shortstop and Center Field.  

None of the players you listed are close to as good of fielder as Kepler; just what the Twins need is a lessor fielder who makes double as sure a thing as base stealing under Jeffers.

[nicksaviking]

2 hours ago, RpR said:

None of the players you listed are close to as good of fielder as Kepler; just what the Twins need is a lessor fielder who makes double as sure a thing as base stealing under Jeffers.

Kepler couldn’t get a hit off of his grandmother any longer.

The young guys seem to want it more. I’d call up Wallner, Julian, Isola and SWR, shelve Kepler, Polanco, Sanchez and Archer and see what happens. They couldn’t possibly play any worse. Even if they did, the W/L record would be the same. Seriously, what’s the harm? The vets are flat out dreadful.

[Peter]

9 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

Kepler couldn’t get a hit off of his grandmother any longer.

The young guys seem to want it more. I’d call up Wallner, Julian, Isola and SWR, shelve Kepler, Polanco, Sanchez and Archer and see what happens. They couldn’t possibly play any worse. Even if they did, the W/L record would be the same. Seriously, what’s the harm? The vets are flat out dreadful.

Agreed!!! Time to dump players and go with younger ones. Season is over after getting swept by Houston/Yankees. Cleveland games won’t matter. I’d rather see twins losing like KC/Detroit instead hot start then going under .500 now 

[mnfireman]

12 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

Kepler couldn’t get a hit off of his grandmother any longer.

 

Last 7 games (KC and Tex):

Kepler - .269/.290/.346   .643 OPS    2 2B

Arraez - .241/.290/.379    .670 OPS    1 2B, 1HR

SSS, but Kepler is also dealing with a broken toe, whereas Arraez is healthy.

[In My La Z boy]

Kepler should not be batting 5th please. Especially against left handers. 

[RpR]

3 hours ago, Peter said:

Agreed!!! Time to dump players and go with younger ones. Season is over after getting swept by Houston/Yankees. Cleveland games won’t matter. I’d rather see twins losing like KC/Detroit instead hot start then going under .500 now 

"Yes siree Bob" - an even worse record with younger players, showing why they are still in the Minors.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

19 hours ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

Discussing Kepler's place on the team doesn't equal "hate". I think we're all pretty much on the same page - he's an elite defensive corner OF with a below average bat. I say below average because he's consistently in the high 90s in OPS+ and RF is a bat first position, It's ok to be league average or below OPS+ if you're the catcher, CF or SS, not so much if you play in the corner OF or corner IF.  For a lineup to work you need guys who's OPS+ in above 100 or even 110 in the bat first positions. Kepler has only been above 110 once in 2019, and was 109 in 2020. Other than that, always a guy between 95 and 100. 

The question is how do you improve this lineup? If you can find better bats where do they typically play? That's easy - 1B, 3B, DH,  LF and RF. I say keep Kepler until we find somebody better, and then drop him a rung to 4th OF. In the interim, DO NOT hit him in the middle of the order. Hit him 7 or 8, not 4, 5, or 6. He's killing us in the middle of the order - give those spots to Miranda, Gordon, and even Urshela ahead of Kepler. We have to play him because that better guy isn't on the roster right now but might be once Larnach is back this year and if Kirilloff can come back next year. Even if we think they those two can be the good hitting corner OFs we need, I think a good hitting corner OF should be a priority this off season. 

I think we're mostly just disappointed with Kepler. We all hoped he'd be a great defensive OF who also was a good hitter and he just isn't that guy.  And entering his age 30 season, it seems unlikely he will ever be that guy.  

Thanks for clarifying the league average bat in a bat-first fielding position. I agree with that assertion and agree, an upgrade is needed, but I don’t think trading or DFAing Kepler is a requirement. He’s a high-floor, low-ceiling quality fielder who stays on the field. Lots of value with the list of ailments across the outfield.

[LA VIkes Fan]

I agree there. I don't see any reason to DFA Kepler at all, particularly right now. I am hopeful though that when and if Larnach comes back healthy that he and Gordon see most of the time in the corner OF spots, not Kepler. I suspect that we are going to get some not so great news on Buxton soon though, so all of this may be moot. Gordon may wind up in CF for most of the rest of the season with Buxton at DH or on the IL. We'll be very happy we have Kepler around if that turns out to be the case. Just, please, for the  love of all that is good an pure in this world, stop hitting Kepler in the 5 hole! move him back to 7 or 8. 

[adorduan]

On 8/18/2022 at 10:44 AM, Minny505 said:

How is this a discussion? Why the sudden hate?

He is now who he has been for most of his career: A league average bat with a plus COF glove. 

He's not going to return to '19-'20 form (they are called prime/peak years for a reason) and he doesn't need to to be worth $10mil and a roster spot. 

He is, right now, in the midst of his 3rd best offensive season of his career. He's hitting better than last year! 

Gordon, the same age now the Kep was in 2019, is likely in the midst of his own career year...and it is nowhere near as good as Kepler was then. Odds are Gordon will never be this good again. He is not the answer. A fun career revival story, but if Kepler is a 4th OF, Gordon is a 5th. 

What are you talking about!? This is just fan fatigue on a long-tenured player on a cold streak. 

You sound like a mob of villagers looking to burn the witch for allegedly turning one of them into a newt. 

 

Yeah, well they aren't using the same baseball now as they did in 2019. Apples and oranges.

[SanoMustGo]

On 8/15/2022 at 9:08 PM, bean5302 said:

Kepler > Trevor Larnach. All day, every day. Better at the plate. Better on the base paths. Better defense.

If Kepler plays a full season? 95% he's 2.0+ WAR.

Larnach was hitting before his latest injury.(They continued to play hima AFTER he got hurt, and it showed).  Kepler, like Sano, Polanco, and others have had a number of seasons to prove himself.  He is now a dime a dozen OF and if the Twins could deal him just to free up money I would take that in a second.  I think it's time to move forward(and away) from the Kepler generation of players. 

[mnfireman]

On 8/23/2022 at 11:16 AM, mnfireman said:

Last 7 games (KC and Tex):

Kepler - .269/.290/.346   .643 OPS    2 2B

Arraez - .241/.290/.379    .670 OPS    1 2B, 1HR

SSS, but Kepler is also dealing with a broken toe, whereas Arraez is healthy.

Add in last nights game (last 8 games):

Kepler -  .300/.323/.400    .723 OPS    3 2B

Arraez -  .219/.286/.344     .630 OPS    1 2B, 1 HR

It's not Kepler's fault that the rest of the team quit hitting recently, and he will not continue to hit like this the rest of the season, but the Kepler hate is unwarranted. 

[bean5302]

1 hour ago, SanoMustGo said:

Larnach was hitting before his latest injury.(They continued to play hima AFTER he got hurt, and it showed).  Kepler, like Sano, Polanco, and others have had a number of seasons to prove himself.  He is now a dime a dozen OF and if the Twins could deal him just to free up money I would take that in a second.  I think it's time to move forward(and away) from the Kepler generation of players. 

Starting caliber position players are not really a dime-a-dozen. Kepler's an average starting right fielder. Right in the middle of the pack. That aside, I'd be looking to trade him in the off season as I think Gordon or Wallner may be able to take his place at a much lower cost.