Max Kepler Under Contract for 2023

[nicksaviking]

2 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Kepler > Trevor Larnach. All day, every day. Better at the plate. Better on the base paths. Better defense.

If Kepler plays a full season? 95% he's 2.0+ WAR.

He hit 2.1 WAR last year and almost certainly won’t hit that mark this year.

I’m not saying to dump him, but odds are probably closer to 50/50. He’s not getting any younger, and his bat is becoming a liability.

[tony&rodney]

Larnach is not ready to replace Kepler just yet. Trevor needs to get healthy first and then get back into game shape. Maybe in the future Larnach improves enough to take over right field but not yet.

The loss of defense using someone other than Kepler in RF would be bigger than most believe. Every single game that Kepler has sat out this year we have seen a couple of hits land on the grass instead of in the glove. He made several plays again tonight.

Wallner is only a DH at this point. He has an amazing arm but is almost stationary in the outfield. I do think he is actually improving from watching games on milb.com, but he needs a ton of repetitions before he can be deemed competent.

So we need to hope that Kepler finds his swing and keeps it because there isn't really anyone behind him on the depth chart right now. 

[JD-TWINS]

Kepler is batting 6 points less than Polanco & 8 points higher than Buxton. We pencil them in every day they are healthy enough to play. Max has dropped 15 points over last 4-5 weeks. Way too many collars!!!

Outfield play is solid - decent speed - after shift is outlawed he hits 25-30 points higher…..huge benefit for him. He should have 15-18 homers by now instead of 9, that’s my biggest complaint. He’s not a consistent guy at the plate but he can go off for a week at a time…….3 hits last night…….can only hope.

Jake Cave, great guy, about the 7th outfielder in the organization when all are healthy! Larnach, Kirriloff, Kepler, Buxton, Gordon, Celistino……..assuming Garlick gets traded for youth…….I know we need a right handed bat but he’s not the guy.

[nclahammer]

Question for the masses.  Who has a higher career batting average, Max Kepler or Miguel Sano?  Would you be surprised to find out Sano has a .234 clip while Kepler is at .233?   Both players are in their eighth season, and while Kepler is clearly the superior defender, Sano has more homeruns (162 to 129), more RBI (418 to 397)  and  higher career batting average.   While the timing in Sano's contract makes his departure likely after this season, I'm curious what the decision on Kepler would be if his contract had him in the same boat?  Would we be saying goodbye to both players?  My thought is "Yes."

[tony&rodney]

18 minutes ago, nclahammer said:

Question for the masses.  Who has a higher career batting average, Max Kepler or Miguel Sano?  Would you be surprised to find out Sano has a .234 clip while Kepler is at .233?   Both players are in their eighth season, and while Kepler is clearly the superior defender, Sano has more homeruns (162 to 129), more RBI (418 to 397)  and  higher career batting average.   While the timing in Sano's contract makes his departure likely after this season, I'm curious what the decision on Kepler would be if his contract had him in the same boat?  Would we be saying goodbye to both players?  My thought is "Yes."

Sano was a masher at times for the Twins but was always a clog on the bases and had no home with a glove. The comparison doesn't work because they are different types of baseball players. We do wish that Kepler would hit some line drives and become a better at bat, but he can still turn it around. Sano may arise from the ashes with a new start but these two teammates are quite different.

[MABB1959]

This reminds me of Brian Dozier.  Very likeable but I think we need a better hitter in his place.  This team cannot afford the slumps he has.  I don't think we would get much for him in a trade but maybe?  I would prefer to start looking at some of our prospects since most things point to us not making the playoffs (ouch it hurts to say that and I hope I am wrong),

[TopGunn#22]

Great comments from everyone.  I'm with Doc Bauer on his comments.  There is still a place for Max on this team.  There is still a SMALL chance he could actually make an adjustment and adapt to what the defense is giving him.  Games like last night are the Fools Gold for Max fans and being a fan of him, I fall for it every time.  We've got Kirilloff, Larnach, Celestino, Wallner, Julien, and possibly Garlick.  Someone else will step up next year to enter the mix (Martin???).  I could go either way on a trade.  As always, it comes down to what we would get in return and what "other" moves a trade could open up.  

[Battle ur tail off]

20 hours ago, bean5302 said:

2.0 WAR for a full season at $8.5MM or $10.00MM is a pretty good deal IMHO. That said, if Nick Gordon or Matt Wallner can take Kepler's place in RF for $8-9.5MM less while Kepler net's the Twins a mid level prospect, that's a no brainer.

Wallner strikes out at an amazing rate. He has a long way to go IMO to ever be anything more than a once in a while player. That is just my opinion, he could turn it around. Right now, he is Miguel Sano though. Tons of power, lots of K's and so so as a fielder. 

 

[bean5302]

12 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

He hit 2.1 WAR last year and almost certainly won’t hit that mark this year.

I’m not saying to dump him, but odds are probably closer to 50/50. He’s not getting any younger, and his bat is becoming a liability.

If Kepler plays a full season is the qualifier. He'll get there. WAR isn't a counting stat. It goes up and down with batting performance and fielding performance. At the end of the year, Kepler's bat will be above average and his WAR will rebound. He was at 1.3 fWAR before yesterdays game. He's at 1.6 fWAR now. He'll be at 2.0 EASY by the end of the year.

Kepler has exactly 0 full seasons since he came into the league where he hasn't produced at least 2.0 fWAR. 

[bean5302]

Just now, Battle ur tail off said:

Wallner strikes out at an amazing rate. He has a long way to go IMO to ever be anything more than a once in a while player. That is just my opinion, he could turn it around. Right now, he is Miguel Sano though. Tons of power, lots of K's and so so as a fielder. 

 

Wallner's K rate hasn't increased as he's moved up and it's been decreasing all year. Since June 1, he's at 28.9%, and for a power hitter, it pains me to say this, it's probably better than average these days. If Wallner can replace Kepler is based on whether or not he performs at the MLB level when he gets to the Twins. Prospects are always question marks. 

[Battle ur tail off]

6 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Wallner's K rate hasn't increased as he's moved up and it's been decreasing all year. Since June 1, he's at 28.9%, and for a power hitter, it pains me to say this, it's probably better than average these days. If Wallner can replace Kepler is based on whether or not he performs at the MLB level when he gets to the Twins. Prospects are always question marks. 

Hopefully someone teaches or is getting through to him on how to make better contact. Sounds like he is a big strong guy with loads of power.

[bean5302]

6 minutes ago, Battle ur tail off said:

Hopefully someone teaches or is getting through to him on how to make better contact. Sounds like he is a big strong guy with loads of power.

Wallner definitely made a HUGE adjustment at the plate this year. His walk rate skyrocketed at the same time his strike out rates declined. Wallner talked about improving his plate discipline this year as well. It turned him from a borderline non-prospect into a pretty high ceiling MLB prospect, IMHO.

[MMMordabito]

Average hitter.  Premium defender.  Chicks dig him.

He'll stick around.

[Mike Sixel]

I don't think he's going anywhere. Like I said, I'd be ok if they got the right deal, but I would be happy if they kept him.

[RpR]

17 minutes ago, MMMordabito said:

Average hitter.  Premium defender.  Chicks dig him.

He'll stick around.

Ditto!

[DJL44]

I like Kepler. He's an average MLB outfielder. Many teams have missed the postseason because they couldn't find average players for every spot in the lineup.

However, trading him for a 4th starter would benefit the team.

[bean5302]

55 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

I like Kepler. He's an average MLB outfielder. Many teams have missed the postseason because they couldn't find average players for every spot in the lineup.

However, trading him for a 4th starter would benefit the team.

Yeah... if only Baldelli and the front office would actually play "starters" in their actual positions instead of using them like openers.

[GV14218]

Kepler has produced 1.5 WAR this season in 95 games.  Over the seasons 2019-2022, according to baseball-reference.com, he has produced 8.6 WAR playing in 398 games.  He outperforms his contract, and it isn't close.  The Twins have several roster concerns - but data show that RF with Kepler isn't one of them.  

[Minny505]

How is this a discussion? Why the sudden hate?

He is now who he has been for most of his career: A league average bat with a plus COF glove. 

He's not going to return to '19-'20 form (they are called prime/peak years for a reason) and he doesn't need to to be worth $10mil and a roster spot. 

He is, right now, in the midst of his 3rd best offensive season of his career. He's hitting better than last year! 

Gordon, the same age now the Kep was in 2019, is likely in the midst of his own career year...and it is nowhere near as good as Kepler was then. Odds are Gordon will never be this good again. He is not the answer. A fun career revival story, but if Kepler is a 4th OF, Gordon is a 5th. 

What are you talking about!? This is just fan fatigue on a long-tenured player on a cold streak. 

You sound like a mob of villagers looking to burn the witch for allegedly turning one of them into a newt. 

 

[Aerodeliria]

On 8/16/2022 at 5:44 AM, bean5302 said:

2.0 WAR for a full season at $8.5MM or $10.00MM is a pretty good deal IMHO. That said, if Nick Gordon or Matt Wallner can take Kepler's place in RF for $8-9.5MM less while Kepler net's the Twins a mid level prospect, that's a no brainer

But you still can't replace Kepler's defense so easily. I don't know about Wallner's D, but Gordon, despite his speed and athletic ability, is not a good defender in the outfield.

[saviking]

Let's rotate Kepler, Larnach and Wallner in left and right field next year. Krilloff, if wrist surgery is successful, can alternate between corner outfield and first base as well. Gordon is a keeper and can play center field when Buxton is out but hopefully, finger crossed, Buxton can get his knee right for next year and spend more time in center. Kepler can play center as well if called upon. 

If Krilloff takes over first base and Miranda takes over 3ed base we could have a slot for one more outfielder which should be Celestino who is an excellent outfielder, can play centerfield but lack the pop in his bat Larnuch and Wallner have. 

And the way players get hurt these days we will be using all of them next year. Kepler has one more year to breakout however or he will be gone in 2024, depending on how Larnach and Wallner develop.

[Bigfork Twins Guy]

His fielding speaks for itself.  As for his hitting, I recall that he worked in the offseason with Alex Kirilloff's dad trying to hit to left field and he did that at the beginning of the season with some success.  Then I believe pitchers adjusted by busting him inside where it is very difficult to hit the other way, hence the pull happy at bats are back.

I think his defense warrants keeping him around long enough to see if the shift-rule changes implemented next year open things up for him while waiting for prospects to mature more.  They just are not quite ready to replace Max at this time.

As for the Sano comparison, you have to include the 162 game avg strike out metric,  Sano-243, Kepler-118 to make a fair comparison.

 

[RpR]

1 hour ago, saviking said:

Let's rotate Kepler, Larnach and Wallner in left and right field next year.

Ah, Wallner who has a .181 batting average in AAA, yep, just what the Twins need.

[JD-TWINS]

He’s a lifetime .232 hitter in the middle of his 7th full season. He’s currently batting .227 & he just had an 0 for 29 streak. He stole 2nd last night so I don’t want to hear more about his toe!

Last year he hit .211 but had 19 homers & a higher doubles rate. Decent base runner with speed - good right fielder - under contract - will never back-up Jake Cave.

I’m hopeful that 2023 elimination of infield shift gets him to .255 plus and he starts driving the ball a bit more. CANNOT bat him fourth in line-up as we did for at least a couple months.

[FlyingFinn]

3 hours ago, RpR said:

Ah, Wallner who has a .181 batting average in AAA, yep, just what the Twins need.

Remember, you were all for sending Miranda to the minors (and never bringing him back) and/or trading him with his horrible start on a SSS with the Twins. It takes some players more time than others to master the next level. And, of course, some don't make it. There is a happy medium where we give guys some time to grow.

[RpR]

11 minutes ago, FlyingFinn said:

Remember, you were all for sending Miranda to the minors (and never bringing him back) and/or trading him with his horrible start on a SSS with the Twins. It takes some players more time than others to master the next level. And, of course, some don't make it. There is a happy medium where we give guys some time to grow.

There are a LOT of other dudes in the Twins system hitting well above .181, none have show better fielding skill than Kepler.

AA & AAA is where skill are established, not in the Majors.   Miranda hit well now but his fielding skills are at the same Willie Mays Hays level of Gordon, here maybe today, here maybe tomorrow or maybe not..

[Richie the Rally Goat]

On 8/15/2022 at 3:44 PM, bean5302 said:

2.0 WAR for a full season at $8.5MM or $10.00MM is a pretty good deal IMHO. That said, if Nick Gordon or Matt Wallner can take Kepler's place in RF for $8-9.5MM less while Kepler net's the Twins a mid level prospect, that's a no brainer.

There is something to be said for durability and reliability. He’s tied with Gordon and Polanco for 3rd in games played this season (95).

and his 98 wRC+ is right in line with his career 101.
 

With Buxton, Larnach, Kiriloff, all on the shelf and inconsistent, it’s nice to have reliable ol’ Max.

[saviking]

On 8/18/2022 at 12:58 PM, RpR said:

Ah, Wallner who has a .181 batting average in AAA, yep, just what the Twins need.

That is such a small sample size my friend. Look at what he has done all throughout the minors. Wallner is hitting more than Miranda at this point when he was called up to the major leagues. Should we have written Miranda off? I'd venture to guess Wallner will heat up the rest of the year and raise his batting average to .250 before the year is out with power. 

[IndianaTwin]

Interesting timing to have this thread running amidst a time when Kepler ended one game with a 9-6 putout and got a 9-6 force out two days later.

We'll never know, but I'm more confident in Kepler having the intuition (and skill set) to pull those plays off than I am with any other outfielder we have, with the possible exception of Buxton. 

[strumdatjag]

4 minutes ago, IndianaTwin said:

Interesting timing to have this thread running amidst a time when Kepler ended one game with a 9-6 putout and got a 9-6 force out two days later.

We'll never know, but I'm more confident in Kepler having the intuition (and skill set) to pull those plays off than I am with any other outfielder we have, with the possible exception of Buxton. 

Yes he looks good in the outfield BUT - I watch Kepler bat, while the opposing team puts on the obligatory shift AND I  think - Just bunt the ball to the empty 3B.   Please just bunt the ball to the empty 3B.   After a few successful bunts, the shift won’t  be as obligatory.