Ranking the Twins Most Needed IL Players

[Game7-91]

3 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

Then Jeffers. I really don't think people her compare gin to other catchers.

Good point, he should switch to a fine scotch between innings, those framing metrics would improve.

1 hour ago, JD-TWINS said:

Anyone know how much the Rosters can expand in September now? I’m used to endless bench in September and I know that has changed - any Roster expansion in 2022?

28 on Sep 1st.

Will Twins have 28 competent, healthy bodies to field by then?

[Mike Sixel]

19 minutes ago, Game7-91 said:

Good point, he should switch to a fine scotch between innings, those framing metrics would improve.

28 on Sep 1st.

Will Twins have 28 competent, healthy bodies to field by then?

Yikes! Guess I should have watched the auto fill more closely!

[Major League Ready]

1. Maeda
2. Larnach
3. Alcala
4. Jeffers
5. Ober
6. Garlick

[roger]

2 hours ago, DJL44 said:

He's throwing out 17% of baserunners but league average is 25%. If his CS% was league average he would have thrown out 3 additional baserunners.

The league itself does a pretty good job limiting base stealing. Success rates while stealing have gone up since the 1980s but attempts are WAY down. Nobody attempts to steal unless they think they have an 80% chance of success. 

Minnesota is exactly league average in stolen bases allowed by opponents with 0.5 stolen bases allowed per game

MLB Stats - MLB Team Opponent Stolen Bases per Game | TeamRankings.com

The Yankees lead with 0.3 stolen bases allowed per game and the Reds are the worst with 0.7. So, no it isn't possible that "teams run at will" on Ryan Jeffers. He doesn't throw that many out but teams are only sending their best base stealers against him.

Thanks for the additional data.  Explains a lot.  My old eyes tell me he isn't great, but seems few catchers are and few teams are running.  Interesting.

[roger]

3 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

1) Maeda, Maeda, & Maeda …….experienced reliever for those tough 1 1/3 middle innings!! Playoff tough from Dodger years, former high leverage reliever, & leader on TWINS staff. Maeda or Jax to get 4 outs in a tough spot??? Point made.

2) Larnach if he can get a month in prior to playoffs. Need more pop from our bench than Celistino & Beckham.

3) WINDER. Not sure why the affinity for Ober other than just no confidence in Bundy. Understood. But if it’s just because he’s tall, Winder is more solid in 2022!!! 3.77 ERA vs. plus 4.00 for Ober but Winder has started 9 games, some in every month until August. Ober started 7 games and threw a total of 33.67 innings…..another Bundy/Archer inning eater. Winder can spot start or help from the pen.

STAFF changes by Sept. 1 for playoff eligibility:

Winder for Bundy

Moran for Pagan (Pagan & Bundy are not the answer, period.)

Smelzer for Megill (Length & experience)

Maeda for Sands

Maeda & Smelzer bring REAL depth and capabilities to get more than 3 outs in the middle of a game. 

HUGE IMPROVEMENTS if they are healthy.

Question?  It is unlikely Larnach, Ober, Maeda or Winder will be ready to be back by Sept. 1.  I am guessing that if they are injured they don't have to be on the active roster on Sept. 1 to be eligible for the playoffs.  Do they?

[cHawk]

I by far miss Larnach the most. Without him, Tim Beckham is an everyday starter in the OF.

Having Winder and/or Ober back would be a big help to the team. Chris Archer and Dylan Bundy do not belong in this team’s rotation.

I also would like Jeffers back, but not as much as the other aforementioned players

[PatPfund]

Great piece! You have good choices, but personally, I’d want Larnach back on offense, then Ober, Winder, Maeda in any order. The Jeffers bat was starting to make a difference late, but Leon makes that loss much less with better defense than either Sanchez or Jeffers.

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, roger said:

Thanks for the additional data.  Explains a lot.  My old eyes tell me he isn't great, but seems few catchers are and few teams are running.  Interesting.

If you follow that link the data goes back to 2007. Teams had 20% more stolen bases then than they do now. The data has been trending down for 20 years. 3400 steals leaguewide in 1999 and just 2200 last season.

MLB Stolen Base League Totals | Baseball Almanac (baseball-almanac.com)

[jkcarew]

1a, Larnach 

1b, Ober

3, Garlick

[The Mad King]

Maeda

[Rosterman]

Right now, if this was Spring Training 2023, the Twins would have 12 names, nearly half-the-roster, vying for playing time come the beginning of the season.

Four rotation arms in Maeda, Ober, Paddack and Dobnak,

Would the bullpen need Stashak, Coulombe, Romero and Alcala? A couple of hard decisions here.

Jeffers would be back as catcher. Lewis would be an infielder of note.

Aand the Twins would field a whole new outfield of Garlick, Kirilloff and Larnach!

[dxpavelka]

On 8/13/2022 at 11:14 AM, puckstopper1 said:

What about Sano???    ???

Sano will contribute in the post-season.  Laugh.  I don't care.  Baseball's a funny game.  Stuff happens every October that nobody saw coming.  You heard it hear first.

 

[DocSavage]

Why would it matter.... none of them is game and season changing... playing to be an also ran is a life long habit of way too many Twins Front Offices

[PatPfund]

9 hours ago, Rosterman said:

Right now, if this was Spring Training 2023, the Twins would have 12 names, nearly half-the-roster, vying for playing time come the beginning of the season.

Four rotation arms in Maeda, Ober, Paddack and Dobnak,

Would the bullpen need Stashak, Coulombe, Romero and Alcala? A couple of hard decisions here.

Jeffers would be back as catcher. Lewis would be an infielder of note.

Aand the Twins would field a whole new outfield of Garlick, Kirilloff and Larnach!

They will have more players (hopefully) healthy, but not Paddack (probably more June-ish '23), and Lewis would have to be way ahead of schedule to be playing in the spring. Kirilloff's surgery is radical for a baseball player; he may be back at full strength or never play again. Dobnak hasn't had a healthy season in two years, so I'm not holding my breath. Twins also (possibly) lose Fulmer to FA, and I don't see either Bundy or Archer back (unless he wants to try bullpen work).

A healthy Alcala probably makes the team, and I'm fine if Stashak, Coulombe, and Romero don't. Nobody is likely to claim them (Cotton and Smeltzer are probably better than all of them, and have both cleared waivers this season), and they can figure it out with the Saints or another organization.

Pretty sure Byron will be in CF and Kepler in RF unless something radical happens (they are under contract) with Larnach front-runner for LF. Garlick is a nice role player, but if he is starting everyday this isn't a very good team.